OUTdoor Records Predictions--2018

It would be so nice if 50% of all the Records in the 4 core groups (World, US, Collegiate, HS) were broken in any given year!
Good luck!!
And there are so many reasons why they aren't!

Lack of opportunity.
Injury or illness at the wrong time.
Bad weather conditions.
And athletes who fall short of their potential--intentionally or not!

But my job here--as I do every year--is to suggest which Records CAN be broken---if!
What the odds are, and who has the necessary talent!
As always, I'll begin with the Men!!

WORLD RECORDS
Despite Christian Coleman's Super INdoor season, Usain Bolt's 100 & 200 WR's will survive another year!
However, CC could come close in the 100, so let's give him 5-95 odds on that one, and ZERO odds on the half-lap!
NADA also on the 400, 1000, Mile, 3000, Two Mile, 5000, 10000, 3000SC, 110H, HJ, LJ, SP, DT, JT, HT, and Decathlon!
I considered giving the SC and HJ some odds to play with, but previous attempts at those WR's have all come to naught!
The Steeple usually becomes tactical after a fast 1st K, while there's not enough competition to spur someone like Mutaz Barshim on to the highest heights!
The 800 and 1500 have a chance to fall--if that chance is taken!
Will Asbel Kiprop--or someone "new"--tag the rabbit through 1000 in 2:18+?
Will Emmanuel Korir dig in for a 49.0 first lap in the 800, then come through 600 in 1:14.5?
The Half & Full Marathon WR's can go, given the NUMBER of newcomers who run sub-60's or sub-2:05's in their FIRST races at those distances!
(Guye Adola's first 26.2 was a 2:03:46!!)
Give the Half 20-80 odds, and the Full 60-40!!
With Rai Benjamin's flat speed, and his PR of 48.33, I have a feeling that Legendary 46.78 in the 400H will be taken out in 2018!!
70-30 odds!!
Will Christian Taylor--or Pablo Pichardo--finally nab Jon Edwards's 60-0.25 TJ WR??
Let's give them 40-60 odds!
The Relays?
ALL of them CAN go down!!
But they all won't!
Not just because there's no World Relays meet this year!
It's that meets have little desire to change their list of events, so Relays like the 4X1500 or 4 X Mile are usually not included!
Yet, maybe a Club team (NJ/NY TC, or the Bowerman's) might take the lead and go for it!!
Strongest odds go to the 4X400!!
The rest--roll the dice!

US RECORDS
Give CC the 100 AR!!
90-10 odds!
25-75 on the 200!
ZERO on the 400, 1500, Mile, 3000, Two Mile, 10000, Marathon, 110H, HJ, LJ, DT, JT, HT, and Decathlon!
Yes, that means I believe Johnny Gray's 1:42.60 and Rick Wohlhuter's 1000 mark of 2:13.9 will finally fall!!
Both events have a few guys with Record potential--Clay Murphy, Donavan Brazier, Isaiah Harris, Boris Berian!!
If they worked together through 600.....!!!
Give both a fairly strong 55-45 odds!
The 5000 AR needs fixing!
Like maybe a sub-12:50??
Who's gonna give that baby a shot??
If "they" are serious, give "them" 40-60 odds!
Galen Rupp just came VERY close to Ryan Hall's Half AR!
I think he can cut those few extra seconds!
59:30 is possible, given perfect weather & pacing!
But where & when??
40-60 odds!!
As noted above, I think Rai Benjamin has a GREAT chance to get the 400H mark!
Ditto with Mr Taylor in the TJ!
I'm also giving the SP mark 30-70 odds!
Ryan Crouser or Joe Kovacs seem ready to hit that BIG one---and all it takes is ONE!!
See my World Predictions about AR's in the Relays!

COLLEGIATE RECORDS
TOTALLY SAFE are the 100, 200, 3000, 10000, 3000SC, LJ, TJ, PV, JT, and the HT!
With Michael Norman and Akeem Bloomfield around, we just might see that 400 CR fall!
Give it 40-60 odds!!
Michael Saruni has the 600 speed to go under 1:44 this year!
And that takes him into CR territory!
Give him--and it!--60-40 odds!
Justyn Knight--IF he takes the opportunity!!--CAN break the 5000 CR!!
In a race against Pro's--or in his FINAL Collegiate race??
Give him 30-70 odds--and raise them to 70-30 if he races at PJ or Pre!!/'
Am I OVERestimating Grant Holloway's current potential in saying he CAN get Renaldo Nehemiah's Legendary 110H CR in 2018??
He broke the CR for the 60H INdoors!
So---give this one 20-80 odds--in the "perfect" race!!
See my AR Predictions about the 400H!
With TWO guys at 7-7.75 INdoors, I'm giving Trey Culver and/or Vernon Turner 20-80 odds of adding 2.25 inches to those INdoor marks!
Jordan Geist is the most likely to get the SP mark, but he'll have some company--which can only help him!
Give that CR 60-40 odds!
The CR in the DT is 223-7.
Right now, I can't think of any "names" to offer, but that event has certain elements that send that implement flying to unexpected destinations!
So give it 40-60 odds!
The Decathlon CR is "only" 8539 points!
All an athlete needs is to PR in 4 or 6 of his 10 events to see that mark fall!
With that caveat in mind, give this one 30-70 odds!
Give 100-0 odds for the 4X400 Relay!
The others?
Pay attention to "Relays Weekend", when Penn, Drake, and the Arkansas deal goes down!!

HIGH SCHOOL RECORDS
Tyrese Cooper is injured, and won't compete until maybe June!!
But give Anthony Schwartz 30-70 odds in the 100 & 200!
Give Jamal Walton (& Brian Herron??) 40-60 odds of getting the 400 HSR!
Give Josh Hoey 25-75 odds of improving enough to get Mike Granville's 800 mark!
ZERO odds will save the 1500, Mile, 5000, 10000, 3000SC, 110H (both), 400H, HJ, LJ, TJ, SP (both), DT (both), JT, and the Decathlons for next year!
(When I say "both", I mean the HS and Intl standards in the listed events!)
Brodey Hasty SEEMS to like to chase fast times!
Yet his NBIN performances diluted that image a bit!
But if he gets back to the Tasty Hasty I love, give him 60-40 odds of getting the 3K and Deuce HSR's!!
Mondo---Who else??--gets 80-20 odds of reaching 19-5 in the PV!!
He'll have until August 31st--unless he changes his tune on going Pro!!
No Relays Predictions for HS'ers--sorry!!

So let's see if the Women might fare a little better!!

WORLD RECORDS
FORGET any WR's in the 100, 200, 400, 3000, 2 Mile, 10000, LJ, TJ, SP, DT, and Heptathlon!!
I ALMOST gave some odds for the Two Mile, but the last time ANY decent 3218 Meter race was held was in 2014!!!
Can Ajee Wilson break the venerable 800 and 1000 WR's??
(ZERO consideration given to those people with the following initials--CS, FN, and MW!!)
Give her 20-80 odds for each!
With Genzebe Dibaba around & kicking (in the best sense!!), give her 30-70 odds of taking out her own 1500 WR!
If that one goes, it SHOULD follow that the Mile mark should go also!!
Give it 40-60 odds!
That 5000 mark has been targeted for years--by G-D, Almaz Ayana, and 1 or 2 others!
I think 2018 might be the right time!!
Give it 65-35 odds!
I have faith that Mariya Lasitskene will turn consistency into a WR in the HJ!!
Giving her 60-40 odds!
There's too many 16 footers in the PV now--with 2 or 3 more knocking at the door--for me to send that WR into 2019 unscathed!
Give Isi's mark 70-30 odds!
And take your pick of WHO will have the honors!!
Is Barbora Spotakova retired?
(Note that I didn't list her in my Age Records Predictions!!)
Even if she's not, I could see a Sara Kolak nailing the biggie in the JT!
Give this event 25-75 odds!
And give Anita (No last name needed!!) 85-15 odds of improving her own WR in the Hammer Throw!
No Relays Predictions--but let me repeat my URGENT request that SOMEONE organize a 4 X Mile Relay somewhere!!
With the right team, the WR, the AR, AND the Collegiate Records could all fall when "that" team crosses the finish line!!
But I'd take just the World Record!!
LOL

US RECORDS
Once again, forget Flojo's Sprint marks from 1988!!
Add to that list the AR's in the 10000, LJ, SP, DT, JT, and the Heptathlon!!
I'm getting to like Allyson Felix's feistiness!!
She--at age 32, after a LONG career--is insisting that she ain't finished yet!!
So give her 40-60 odds of getting the AR in the 400!!
See above for my thoughts on Ajee Wilson's chances in the 800 and 1000!
Shannon Rowbury may be with baby right now, but Jenny Simpson could still have some company up front if & when she's closing in on AR's in events like the 1500, Mile, 3000, Two Mile, and the 5000!!
Such as Shelby Houlihan, Brenda Martinez, Kate Grace, Emily Infeld, and a few others!
Such is the American talent field in the Women's Distances that I can't even single out the iconic Ms Simpson as "the girl most likely to..."!!
Except for the Deuce (Lack of races!!), give 60-40 odds to ALL the other events!!
Emma Coburn, Courtney Frerichs, and Colleen Quigley get 75-25 odds of taking out Coburn's SC Record!!
I'm giving the 2 longest races (Half & Full Marathon) 60-40 odds of getting broken!
Remember, I count marks from the Boston course!!
Both Hurdles events AR's can fall!
And a Gal named Syd could get the longer race's mark!
That is Sydney McLaughlin, for those just now exiting a cave!!
I'll take a BIG chance, and give Vashti Cunningham 10-90 odds of getting the HJ Record!
Will Keturah Orji improve on her Rio AR in the TJ??
I'll give this graduating Senior 60-40 odds!
If Sandi Morris, Katie Nageotte, and Jenn Suhr all remain healthy, and compete often (Not so SUHR about Jenn!!  LOL), give the PV mark 60-40 odds!
Gwen Berry has broken the AR in the Hammer Throw TWICE!
Well, they say "3rd time's the charm"!!
260 feet???
Give her 5-95 for THAT distance, but 65-35 for the Record itself!

COLLEGIATE RECORDS
Despite some really Class acts in the Collegiate world this year, I'm giving ZERO odds to the following events---the 200, 800, 1500, 3000 (Because it's so rarely run OUTdoors anymore!!), HJ, LJ, and the DT!
While it would take perfect weather & a Pro-type start, I'm giving just 15-85 odds for such as Mikiah Brisco and Aleia Hobbs to cut down Dawn Sowell's 29 year old 100 CR of 10.78!!
But Courtney Okolo's 49.71 CR in the 400 should fall--and maybe by Ms Okolo herself!!
If not her, look around for those Super Frosh--Ms McLaughlin and Lynna Irby!
And let's not ignore Kendell Ellis!
Give that one 40-60 odds!
The Mile mark is so weak--especially when compared to the 1500 CR---that it SHOULD have fallen years ago!!
It would take someone coming through 1500 in 4:12 or a few tenths faster!
75-25 odds if the opportunity arises!
And what kind of tactics will Karissa Schweizer use in her last Collegiate races?
If she GUNS it from the gun (Heh.), give the 5K & 10K marks 60-40 odds!
If she (& others) go for Points, drop those odds to 10-90!!
Eleanor Purrier has the flat speed to drop-kick the 3000SC mark over the wall!!
Give her 70-30 odds!
It would take a LOT of improvement to get both Hurdles CR's!
But it's been done before--going from 12.60'ish to the 12.30's!
As for the 53.21 CR in the full lap race, the ONLY guesswork is by HOW MUCH McLaughlin will send that mark into oblivion!!
The CR in the TJ is 7.25 inches less than Ms Orji's AR!!
So give her 75-25 odds of getting the CR!
Will the former Weeks twins (Lexi Jacobus & Tori Hoggard) do battle with Olivia Gruver in chasing the PV Record??
And if limited to that 3-some, WHO will end on Top??
Give the CR 80-20 odds!!
Raven Saunders is finished with her Collegiate career, but Maggie Ewen gets 20-80 odds of taking out the Raven's CR in the Shot Put!
The JT Record is out there, but this event is one filled with shocking PR's!!
It could happen again!
Give it 20-80 odds!
And Ms Ewen gets 90-10 odds of improving her own CR in the Hammer Throw!
Give the Heptathlon Women--especially Taliyah Brooks and Nina Schultz--40-60 odds of getting that 23 year old Record!!
Again, no Relays Predictions!

HIGH SCHOOL RECORDS
There are three HS'ers who are FAR advanced in comparisons to their compadres!!
They are Briana Williams, Tamari Davis, and Katelyn Tuohy!
That said, I'm still giving ZERO chance for seeing new HSR's in the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1500, 10000, 3000SC, 300H, 400H, HJ, LJ, TJ, PV, SP, DT, JT, and the HT!!
Williams ran 11.13 to open her OUTdoor season, breaking Marion Jones's World Age 15 Record!
But that's still FAR removed from Candace Hill's 10.98!!
And Ms Davis, no matter how precocious, is almost a FULL SECOND from Allyson Felix's iconic 22.11 in the 200!
As for Ms Tuohy, it's entirely up (conceding 100% good health!) to her choosing to CHASE after Records!!
If she REALLY wants them, give her 95-5 odds for the Mile, 3000, Two Mile, and the 5000!!
And if she REALLY goes crazy, add 80-20 odds for the 10000 HSR also!!
The 100H mark of 12.84 has the HSR holder herself (Tia Jones) still breathing!
Add those speedy "newcomers" from INdoors, and stir the pot!!
Give that Record 65-35 odds!
Jasmine Moore is a GREAT TJ'er, but she's more than a foot shy of the HSR!!
But give her 10-90 odds anyway!!
Erica Ellis PV'ed 14-1.25 INdoors, but she's all alone at that height right now!
Give her 15-85 odds of adding 6.50 inches!!
Anna Hall fell 14 points short of Kendell Williams's great INdoor Pentathlon Record!
Can she come close to the OUTdoor Heptathlon HSR--also held by Williams??
Give her 60-40 odds!!
Remembering that Emma Fitzgerald came within ONE POINT of the mark 2 years ago!!

Well, friends, there will be one more OUTdoor Preview post!!
That will list what marks are needed to make my Top 24 All-Time Performers Lists!!

After that, it's time for ACTION---and Results!!

See you soon!!