For Now, It's Over!

As November 2018 began, I had a pretty good idea of where this blog would be going.
Cover the NYC Marathon.
Check.
The NCAA Regionals, but only a cursory glance.
Done
The Championships
Top 10's, with some interesting lower finishers mentioned!
And that's when the hesitation set in, day by day, hour by hour!

Long story short, a chronic foot & lower leg infection seemed to be getting worse---though ironically might now be improving!
On top of that, a bad sore throat began.
The two problems together has made daily life pretty uncomfortable.

While I wrote down the top NCAA finishers, I did so differently than I normally do---with much less energy!
(I haven't even yet changed my OUTdoor Record Book to note Kellyn Taylor's fast Half---which DOES make my Top 24 list!!
Plus whatever else I missed due to this recent onslaught of discomfort.

Suffice to say--and I am VERY sad to say so---I just don't have the necessary health to do what this blog would be doing---Previewing the 2018-2019 INdoor T&F season , making all kinds of Records predictions, then enthusiastically reporting all the best marks sure to come----soon!!
With the utmost regret, I must call a halt to this blog.
(I've also greatly reduced my commentary on the T&FN Message Board---and on my Twitter site.

I need to get healthy again!
I will still check out my normal research sites for major results.
I'll be watching LOTS of stuff on Netflix and from my private DVD collection!!
I'll watch or listen to NFL & Collegiate football games!
I'll READ the MB's!!

To prove that what I'm saying is true---I'm going to end this now!
Too uncomfortable to concentrate!!

Will you see another post?
MAYBE!!
But don't look for it!!

If and whan I can, I'll tell you more!

One thing I DO want to say---
THANK  YOU for sticking with me these past 5 years!
Enjoy the 2018-2019 T&F INdoor season!
I'll try to!

"New" Champs Expected Tomorrow

A reminder of how this blogger sees Cross Country---
Times can mostly be taken with two grains of salt!
Even the NCAA Championship course doesn't remain the same every year!
Weather---good and bad---greatly affects the outcome!
There WILL be some shocks tomorrow!

The Regionals of XC---unlike T&F's "regionals"--DO offer some significant data to mull over!
So let's briefly review what happened a week ago !!

The Northeast Regional times seem to be outliers---on the deeply negative side!
I mean, come on---32:31 and 21:29 won these races!!
Paul Hogan took the Men's 10K, and Shannon Milnar won the Women's!
No serious contenders here!!

The South has a top returner in Alfred Chelanga, who took the 10K in 30:59!
Zach Long was 12 seconds back!
Militar Mitcheva won the 6K in 20:17.
A couple of Jessica's followed, with Ms Paslov beating Ms Drop!
They were each spaced 6 seconds apart!

The South Central race went to Jamie Crowe's 31:36!
Abraham Chirchir was 4 seconds back!

The Women's race had a tougher set of podium toppers!
Katrina Robinson--despite her time of just 20:20 here--should be considered a Top Ten threat in Madison!
Both Taylor Werner and Lauren Gregory etched 20:29's into their logbooks!

Again, please ignore the times run in the Regionals!
For while the Mid-Atlantic saw the winning 10K time as 31:04, you can't ignore Casey Comber as a potential threat tomorrow!
He beat Nick Wareham's 31:08!
Likewise, say what you will about the Women's winning time being just 21:02, you cannot overlook Rachel McArthur!
She beat Grace Mancini's 21:08!

The Southeast race went to James Sugura's 29:27!
He nipped Peter Saufer's same time!
Dorcas Wasike took the 6K in 19:42, with Elly Henes just 5 seconds back!

The Midwest presents some intriguing names!
Callie Logue has been steady all season, and her 10 second win over tough Sharon Lokedi---20:13 to 20:23---didn't change that!!
Winny Kosgei matched Lokedi's time, while Aubrey Roberts was just a second behind!

Edwin Kurgat took the Men's race in 30:41, just edging Isai Rodriguez, 30:41 to 30:42!
That leaves us with the three "strongest" regions--the Great Lakes, the Mountain, and the West!
It's likely we'll see a majority of tomorrow's Top 20 or so coming from these regions!!

The Great Lakes Men's 3rd placer--Morgan McDonald--may be the key to tomorrow's race, as Australians are feisty frontrunners!
But his 31:13 was beaten in the Regional by Jaret Carpenter's 31:09 and Ben Kandell's 31:11.
Again, ignore the slowish times!

But it's on the Women's side where we might have seen tomorrow's  eventuial winner emerge!!
Her name is Alicia Monson---and she's ALSO from Australia!!

NOTE ADDED SATURDAY---HUGE ERROR!
Apparently Ms Monson is from Wisconsin---quite a few kilometers from Australia!
My apologies!!

That she beat Anna Rohrer in the process takes nothing away from my "feel" for her talent!!

The West region supposedly has "everyone's" consensus favorite in their mix!
His name is Grant Fisher!
He DOES have quick track times, and a winning record!
That is, until you note he ended only 16th here!!
Most say he was "resting", and just tempoed to the line safely.
Also, he was just 9 seconds behind Nick Hauger's 29:42 winner!
Carlos Villarreal finished just one second back!

The West Women definitely saw more "realistic" results---meaning ones that can be expected to be matched tomorrow!!

Allie Ostrander is not only the best "Cross" runner, but her Steeplechase technique can take her over any hay bales or other "barriers" unscratched and unperturbed!!
That she clocked a stunning 19:09---10 seconds faster the the NCAA Championship Meet record!!--and beat Jessica Hull by 13 seconds---should place her at the very top of the Podium challengers tomorrow!!
Susan Ejore ran 19:25 to edge past Stanford's tough Elise Cranny by a second!
Fiona O'Keefe is another to watch, as is Weronika Pyzik, even though the latter ended in 19:35, a full 26 seconds being the diminuitive Allie O!!

And then we come to the Mountain Region!!
Whew!!
From there, we just might see the same 3 top finishers in the Regional cross the line close together----1, 2, 3???---tomorrow!!
Joe Klecker's 29:17 won the race, but Tyler Day and Matt Baxter each tossed in 29:19's to take the next two spots!!
And do NOT discount Rory Linkletter, even though he ended 8th in 29:26.

As for the Females, watch out!!!
Is Weini Kelati REALLY that much better than last year's record-smashing champion, Ednah Kurgat??
She's beaten her in every race this year, and by fairly decisive margins!!
But is Kurgat merely biding her time, keying on tomorrow's BIG race??
Kelati is a known frontrunner, unafraid to take it out from the gun!
Does she now have the confidence to back up her talent??

Erica  Birk and Jaci Smith ran good times too--19:35 and 19:44--they were nowhere near Kelati!
And what about Dani Jones, who ended 6th??
Will she shock them all??

While I've never done predictions for XC, here's my take on tomorrow's races.

Allie Ostander wins it!
She's followed by Kelati, Monson, Cranny, Jones, Logue, and Kurgat!!

The Men's race goes to McDonald, followed VERY closely by Fisher, Klecker, Chelanga, Baxter, and Linkletter!!

The Women's Meet Record WILL be broken tomorrow---maybe even dipping into the 18's!
The Men's will be more tactical, and may not break 29!!

See you soon!!

NYC Marathon's Amazing Closers

Did the 2017 Champions do it again?
An absolute "NO!" doesn't suffice!
Because Geoff Kamworor and Shalane Flanagan ran VERY well, and ended on the podium!

But this year's version of the New York City Marathon gave up a whole lot more than heroic American achievers, or African track speedsters showing their worth on this venerable city's streets and bridges!

The Women's race began a half hour before the Men's.
And almost to the second, the first uphill mile matched 2017's--6:41 to 6:43, with the entire elite pack tied in a neat little bow.
While the downhill portion over the Verazanno Narrows Bridge picked up the pace, they hit the 5K in 18:45, 24 seconds up on 2017's jogfest!
But 10K was reached several seconds behind last year's pace.
The field was still all together!

Then an American took over.
Was it Shalane Flanagan, Molly Huddle, Des Linden, or Allie Kieffer?
How about Brittany Charboneau, a 30 year old Marathon drifter with a 2:35-ish PR!!

But her "lead" was negligible, even though it held for a few more miles!
Then Linden took over, hitting the 15K point in 55:08 after a 5000 in 18:03.
They were now running Miles of 5:50!!
And Flanagan was NOT in the Top 10 on the Leaderboard!!

Mary Keitany, whose "bad" day allowed Flanagan to become the US's first NYC Champion in over 30 years, surged a 5:38 Mile between 10 and 11.
Flanagam was now back with the lead group!

Mamitu Daska and Rahma Tusa were now leading, reaching 20K in 72:08, the first pair of 10K's having been run in 37:05 and 35:03!!
And now, at the Half, Keitany was leading, time of 1:15:50---about 18 seconds faster than in 2017,
But they had run their 2nd half under 1:11, and all of the frontrunners seemed capable of repeating!!

Coming over the bridge from Queens into Manhatten, Keitany was hitting the gas--HARD!!
Her 5000 from 20 to 25K was just 16:15, by far the fastest of the race!
And then she BLASTED a 4:54 Mile, followed by a 4:57!!
Two Miles in 9:51, right up there with the Men's pace!
And she was only at 18 miles!!

It took Keitany--now running alone!--just 15:19 for the 5000 between 25 & 30K!!
Her next 5000 took only 15:34, making her previous 10K a blistering 30:53!!

There would be no Shalane Flanagan screaming "FUCK YES!" this year!!

At 20 Miles, Keitany led Tusa by 54 seconds, with Flanagan and Huddle battling for US supremacy!
Vivian Cheruiyot was ahead of  the Americans!
That 15:34 left the Kenyan vet over two minutes in the lead.
It was now a Coronation for this A-T great heading to her 4th W in NYC!!

At 23 Miles, closing in on Central Park, Tusa was 2:16 behind Keitany, but just 22 seconds ahead of Flanagan, who was finishing hard!!
Could she make the podium!!
The finish line was approaching, and race-able territory was dropping out of sight!!

Her last measurable 5K splitting a more "human" 16:13, Keitany sped across the line in 2:22:48, missing the Course Record by just 17 seconds!!

Tusa was clearly dying!
With every new camera image, Flanagan was now clearly attacking Tusa's rearguard!
Cheruiyot had used her Track speed to end 2nd in 2:26:02, and Shalane was now pumping her arms to reach the line in 2:26:22, this time yelling "I love you!" to her adoring fans!!
Huddle PR'ed by over a minute to end 4th, time of 2:26:44!!
She moves from 21st A-T US to 14th!!

Tusa crawled to the finish in 2:27:13, brave to finish!
She was followed by more Americans--Linden's 2:27:41 in 6th, with Kieffer 7th in 2:28:12.
This makes her 22nd A-T US!!

But what was utterly stupifying was the time of Keitany's SECOND Half!
It was 66:58, the fastest ever in a full Marathon!!

The Men's race soon became another African slugfest, with the fave being Kamworor!
Tell that to Shura Kitata, a young up-and-comer!
He took the lead early--even making a tiny break of about 5 meters!!
This wasn't the norm in Men's Marathoning!!

After 5000's of 15:37 (over the V-N Bridge) and 15:11, Kitata led a group of 5 or 6 through 15K in 45:47, barely dipping into the 14's on their last split!!

Kitata was still leading at the Half, reached in 1:03:55!!
Quite a bit faster than in 2017!!
But he had company, with Lelisa Desisa being just 2 seconds back, with Kamworor close in tow!

In fact, Kamworor held a small lead at 25K, after a last 5000 of 15:05!!
No super fast splits, but not a MoBot race either!!
And GK was hitting the gas, exploding to a 14:36 split between 25 & 30K!!

Into Central Park they went, with Kamworor leading Kitata and Desisa!!
But it was close--VERY close!!
This wasn't a Keitany runaway--this was a RACE!!

At 40K--with just 2195 meters left--Kamworor and Desisa were side by side--almost clipping each other, while Kitata had now fallen behind by 10 seconds!!
The road through CP was winding, each turn revealing a closer race!!

The young Kitata had more left!
He was attacking, even taking the lead again!
Kamworor wasn't "gone", but it would take a sub-60 final 400 to bring him back into contention!!

And then Desisa was  sprinting, and the gap between he and Kitata was narrowing!

At the line, Desisa's 2:05:59 beat Kitata's 2:06:01 for the big W!!
Kamworor faded to 2:06:26, ending 3rd!
The first American was Jared Ward, his 6th place time being 2:12:24!!

Bernard Lagat was said to be seeking the US "Masters" record, but after a fairly smooth first half, his initial go at the 26.2 distance took him 2:17 & change--far off any record, but not bad for a guy approaching Age 44!!

The weekend began with the USATF 5000 being held over the closing miles of the Marathon!!

Paul Chelimo outsprinted Shadrack Kipchirchir for the win, both timed in 13:45!
Stan Kebenai took 3rd in 13:53.
Eric Jenkins was 4th in 14:00, with Matthew Centrowitz ending 2 seconds farther back in 8th!!

The Women's race saw Emily Sisson running 15:38 for the Win, with Erika Kemp's 15:50 taking the Silver.
Amy Cragg followed in 15:54.

Aisling Cuffe ran a decent 16:06 in 8th!!

Some "other" news to report---

Centro has left the Nike Oregon Project!!
His volunteer coaching position at the University of Washington finds him aligned with UO's former coaches, the Powell's, but no indication of anything official!!

Chelimo has left the US Army team, and signed with Nike!!

Finally--and sadly--there is news of a knee injury to Katelyn Tuohy!
It's serious enough that she didn't run in her State final!
And all indications are this will close out her XC season!!
As for INdoors, who knows??!!

Next up are the Collegiate Regionals!!
See you soon!