"New" Champs Expected Tomorrow

A reminder of how this blogger sees Cross Country---
Times can mostly be taken with two grains of salt!
Even the NCAA Championship course doesn't remain the same every year!
Weather---good and bad---greatly affects the outcome!
There WILL be some shocks tomorrow!

The Regionals of XC---unlike T&F's "regionals"--DO offer some significant data to mull over!
So let's briefly review what happened a week ago !!

The Northeast Regional times seem to be outliers---on the deeply negative side!
I mean, come on---32:31 and 21:29 won these races!!
Paul Hogan took the Men's 10K, and Shannon Milnar won the Women's!
No serious contenders here!!

The South has a top returner in Alfred Chelanga, who took the 10K in 30:59!
Zach Long was 12 seconds back!
Militar Mitcheva won the 6K in 20:17.
A couple of Jessica's followed, with Ms Paslov beating Ms Drop!
They were each spaced 6 seconds apart!

The South Central race went to Jamie Crowe's 31:36!
Abraham Chirchir was 4 seconds back!

The Women's race had a tougher set of podium toppers!
Katrina Robinson--despite her time of just 20:20 here--should be considered a Top Ten threat in Madison!
Both Taylor Werner and Lauren Gregory etched 20:29's into their logbooks!

Again, please ignore the times run in the Regionals!
For while the Mid-Atlantic saw the winning 10K time as 31:04, you can't ignore Casey Comber as a potential threat tomorrow!
He beat Nick Wareham's 31:08!
Likewise, say what you will about the Women's winning time being just 21:02, you cannot overlook Rachel McArthur!
She beat Grace Mancini's 21:08!

The Southeast race went to James Sugura's 29:27!
He nipped Peter Saufer's same time!
Dorcas Wasike took the 6K in 19:42, with Elly Henes just 5 seconds back!

The Midwest presents some intriguing names!
Callie Logue has been steady all season, and her 10 second win over tough Sharon Lokedi---20:13 to 20:23---didn't change that!!
Winny Kosgei matched Lokedi's time, while Aubrey Roberts was just a second behind!

Edwin Kurgat took the Men's race in 30:41, just edging Isai Rodriguez, 30:41 to 30:42!
That leaves us with the three "strongest" regions--the Great Lakes, the Mountain, and the West!
It's likely we'll see a majority of tomorrow's Top 20 or so coming from these regions!!

The Great Lakes Men's 3rd placer--Morgan McDonald--may be the key to tomorrow's race, as Australians are feisty frontrunners!
But his 31:13 was beaten in the Regional by Jaret Carpenter's 31:09 and Ben Kandell's 31:11.
Again, ignore the slowish times!

But it's on the Women's side where we might have seen tomorrow's  eventuial winner emerge!!
Her name is Alicia Monson---and she's ALSO from Australia!!

NOTE ADDED SATURDAY---HUGE ERROR!
Apparently Ms Monson is from Wisconsin---quite a few kilometers from Australia!
My apologies!!

That she beat Anna Rohrer in the process takes nothing away from my "feel" for her talent!!

The West region supposedly has "everyone's" consensus favorite in their mix!
His name is Grant Fisher!
He DOES have quick track times, and a winning record!
That is, until you note he ended only 16th here!!
Most say he was "resting", and just tempoed to the line safely.
Also, he was just 9 seconds behind Nick Hauger's 29:42 winner!
Carlos Villarreal finished just one second back!

The West Women definitely saw more "realistic" results---meaning ones that can be expected to be matched tomorrow!!

Allie Ostrander is not only the best "Cross" runner, but her Steeplechase technique can take her over any hay bales or other "barriers" unscratched and unperturbed!!
That she clocked a stunning 19:09---10 seconds faster the the NCAA Championship Meet record!!--and beat Jessica Hull by 13 seconds---should place her at the very top of the Podium challengers tomorrow!!
Susan Ejore ran 19:25 to edge past Stanford's tough Elise Cranny by a second!
Fiona O'Keefe is another to watch, as is Weronika Pyzik, even though the latter ended in 19:35, a full 26 seconds being the diminuitive Allie O!!

And then we come to the Mountain Region!!
Whew!!
From there, we just might see the same 3 top finishers in the Regional cross the line close together----1, 2, 3???---tomorrow!!
Joe Klecker's 29:17 won the race, but Tyler Day and Matt Baxter each tossed in 29:19's to take the next two spots!!
And do NOT discount Rory Linkletter, even though he ended 8th in 29:26.

As for the Females, watch out!!!
Is Weini Kelati REALLY that much better than last year's record-smashing champion, Ednah Kurgat??
She's beaten her in every race this year, and by fairly decisive margins!!
But is Kurgat merely biding her time, keying on tomorrow's BIG race??
Kelati is a known frontrunner, unafraid to take it out from the gun!
Does she now have the confidence to back up her talent??

Erica  Birk and Jaci Smith ran good times too--19:35 and 19:44--they were nowhere near Kelati!
And what about Dani Jones, who ended 6th??
Will she shock them all??

While I've never done predictions for XC, here's my take on tomorrow's races.

Allie Ostander wins it!
She's followed by Kelati, Monson, Cranny, Jones, Logue, and Kurgat!!

The Men's race goes to McDonald, followed VERY closely by Fisher, Klecker, Chelanga, Baxter, and Linkletter!!

The Women's Meet Record WILL be broken tomorrow---maybe even dipping into the 18's!
The Men's will be more tactical, and may not break 29!!

See you soon!!