Which--if any!--World, US, Collegiate, and HSR's will be broken in 2016, and what are the odds?
Following is a capsulized wrap-up of Record possibilities in the 2016 OUTdoor season!
(This will be followed by my Predictions for Age Records to be broken--but only down to Age 30! I'll finish the Age Record Predictions--and add some new marks--in another post shortly following this one!)
World--Men
ZERO chance we'll see a WR in the 100, 400, 5000, 10000, 400H, LJ, DT, JT, HT, 4X800R, and 4X1500R.
The Records are just too good, and no one competing now is ready to break them!
As for the Relays, with no World Relays meet this year (Sad to say!!), the longer Relays have little opportunity to try for a Record!
If a meet sets up a race, those odds will drastically change!!
10-90 that we'll have new WR's in the 200, 800, 1000, Mile, 110H, HJ, SP, or 3000.
I give the 4XMileR 20-80 odds because I'm hoping the Penn Relays will have a good race, and that Ed Cheserek--if he's on the leading team!--will RUN his anchor leg this time!!
Other events getting 20-80 odds are the 4X200 and 4X400 Relays!
30-70 odds go to the Two Mile and the DMR.
For the 4X100R and the Marathon, it's 40-60!
Even odds go to the 3000SC!
60-40 is given the 1500, with Asbel Kiprop ready to take El G's mark!
Odds go up in the TJ to 80-20, with Christian Taylor, Pablo Pichardo, and maybe a resurgent Teddy Tamgho ready to take down Jonathan Edwards's WR!
With Renaud Lavillenie seemingly taking a WR shot (3 of them, if necessary!) in EVERY meet, I believe Bubka's mark will finally go--so I give the PV 90-10 odds.
Same goes for the Decathlon, with Ashton Eaton perhaps taking his final swing at a JJK-type WR---say 9200!!
US--Men
NO chance for a US Record in the 200, 400, Marathon, 400H, LJ, DT, JT, and HT.
10-90 for the 110H!
20-80 for the 1000, Two Mile, 10000, PV, 4X200R and the 4X800R.
30-70 odds for the 800, Mile, HJ, SP, 4X400R, and the 4X1500R.
40-60 for the 1500, 3000, and the DMR.
Even odds for the 5000, with Ben True the leading candidate, IMO!
60-40 for the 100, with either Justin Gatlin, Tyson Gay, or Trayvon Bromell the ones to do it!
The TJ--with Taylor the one--gets 80-20 odds, same as the WR!
90-10's go to the 3000SC (Evan Jager, of course!), Decathlon (AE), and the 4X100R!
The Relay gets 90-10 for the US Record, NOT the WR!!
Collegiate--Men
ZERO odds go to the 400, 3000SC, 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, PV, SP, JT, HT, 4X100, 4X200, 4X800, and SM Relays!
Slightly better (10-90) odds go to the 200 and TJ, but I still see them as LONGGGGG shots!!
20-80's are for the Decathlon, 4X1500 and DM Relays!
30-70's are given for the 100, 3000, 10000 (If Cheserek gives them a SERIOUS shot!!), and the 4X400R.
40-60's go to the 1500, Mile, and 5000.
Even odds for the 800 to go down!
See my WR section for my caveats for giving 80-20 odds for the Collegiate 4XMileR!!
With the GREAT opener for Sam Mattis (2 feet 4 inches shy of Julian Wruck's CR!), I'm giving the DT 90-10 odds!
HS--Men
NO chance for HSR's in the 800, 10000, 3000SC, HJ, TJ, the HS SP (Carter's 81-3.50!), the HS DT, the JT, the Pro SP (Carter's 67-9), the Pro DT, nor the 4X100, 4X400, 4X800, and the SM and DM Relays!!
Odds go up to 20-80 for the 400, LJ, the HS HT, the HS Decathlon, the Pro Decathlon, and the 4XMileR!
It's 30-70 for the Pro 110H and the 400H.
The 1500 and Mile--DESPITE Drew Hunter probably running in the Pre Bowerman Mile--get "just" 40-60 odds!
I take Hunter at his word that he's NOT a true Miler, but better at the longer races, like the 5000!
Even odds for the Pro HT, with Bobby Colantonio the prime candidate.
His INdoor-season-ending try at the Pro WT--and getting 2nd A-T HS--gives him a fair shot at the mark!
With Hunter in mind---maybe at Payton Jordan??--I give the 5000 odds of 70-30!
80-20's go to the 100, 3000, Two Mile,, and the HS 110H.
90-10's for the 200 and Pole Vault!
Now for the Women!
World--Women
NADA for the 100, 400, Marathon, HJ, LJ, SP, DT, Heptathlon, and the 4X800 Relay.
It's 5-95 for the 200, 800, 100H, and the TJ.
10-90's for the 1000 and 400H.
20-80's go to the 3000, 3000SC, Decathlon (Yes, the TEN-eventer!!), and the 4X100 and DM Relays.
30-70's are given the JT, and the 4X200, 4X400, and 4X1500 Relays.
40-60 odds go to the 1500 and 10000!
I'm giving the Two Mile 60-40 odds, but there were NO World Class Deuces in 2015!! I hope that changes in 2016!!
80-20's go to the Mile, 5000, and the Hammer Throw!
90-10 for the 4XMile Relay!
The latter WR is 18:39 and change--just under 4:40 per Mile!
Will there be a good Collegiate race at the Penn Relays?
That mark is so EASY, it's a shame it's still on the books!!
US--Women
NO chance for the 100, 200, LJ, or Heptathlon!
5-95 for the 100H.
Odds go up to 20-80 for the 400, and 4X100 and DM Relays.
It's 30-70's for the 1000, DT, and 4X200R.
40-60's for the 800, 10000, 400H, HJ, TJ, and 4X400R.
Even odds for the Marathon (In a Fall Marathon!!), 4X800R, and the Decathlon!
60-40's go to the 1500, Two Mile, 5000, JT, HT, and the 4X1500R.
I give 70-30 odds to the Mile and 3000.
An 80-20 is given the Shot Put!
With Emma Coburn possibly returning to 2014 form, I give the 3000SC 95-5 odds!
The Pole Vault IS going down, folks!!
With THREE 16-footers among the Women, that Record is GONE!!
Collegiate--Women
Only the 1500 and Discus Throw have NO chance!
5-95 for the 100H.
10-90 for the 100.
20-80 to the 200.
30-70 for the 400.
40-60's to the 3000, 10000, and LJ.
Even odds to the 3000SC.
60-40's to the 800, 400H, HJ, HT, 4X200 and 4X400 Relays!
70-30's to the 5000 and Decathlon!
80-20 odds go for the Mile, JT, Heptathlon, 4X100, 4X1500, SM, and DM Relays!
90-10's for the TJ and 4X800R.
One Hundred to Zero odds for the Pole Vault (Demi Payne is in her final season of eligibility!!) and SP!
HS--Women
NO chance for the 100, 200, 800, 1500, HJ, LJ, TJ, or the 4X100R.
10-90's for the 400, 3000SC, PV, and DT!
Odds rise to 30-70 for the Heptathlon, and 4X400 and 4X800 Relays!
The 4X200R gets 40-60 odds.
Even odds to the 10000 and Hammer Throw!
That 10K HSR is now 37 years old!! One of you Distance Studs, PLEASE go after it!!
60-40's for the 5000 and SP!
Remember, Weini Kelati is NOT eligible to break HSR's!!
70-30's to the 3000 and Two Mile!
80-20's for the 100H (Tonea Marshall??), 300H (Sydney McLaughlin), JT, and 4XMile and DM Relays.
The Great Oaks team MIGHT go for the longer Relay mark--and there's little doubt they'll get it!
90-10's for the Mile and SMR.
It's a solid GO for Sydney McLaughlin to DESTROY Leslie Maxie's 1984 HSR of 55.20---maybe in a HEAT race!!
Three HS PRO Records are open!
Given 90-10 odds is the 100.
Solid 100-0 odds for the 200 and the empty throne of the HJ!
The very first jump---at whatever height the bar is at!!--will be the HS PRO Record for Vashti Cunningham!!
Now for my Age Record category!!
I will combine the Men & Women within each Age.
I'll start with the 40 & Over's, working down to Age 30 in this post!
No room to go all the way to the Teenage years!
Age 29 down to "0-17" will follow later today!
40 & Over
Venelina Veneva-Mataeeva chases her own 6-2.75 in the HJ.
Kim Collins wants the 100 and 200 (10.29 and 20.64), while Fabrizio Donato will chase the TJ mark of 54-4.75!
For Collins, he turns 40 next week, while Donato must wait until August 14th!
And Bernard Lagat is still running on the track--this year!
So he could get the 10000 Record of 28:30.88--at Payton Jordan??--if he wants it!!
39
Donato has until August 13th to fill the empty TJ slot!
38
Reese Hoffa has an empty place in the SP!
37
Chris Brown will have to run the 400 in 46.06.
Ruth Beitia must HJ 6-6.25, while Gia Lewis-Smallwood will have to throw the Discus 221-4, starting on April Fool's Day!
36
Edna Kiplagat has until November 14th to run a Marathon in 2:19:19 or faster!
35
Starting July 8th, Shalane Flanagan must run the Marathon in 2:21:30.
Barbara Spotakova must hit the 216-6 mark in the JT, but only beginning June 30th, when she turns 35!
Amber Campbell's HT target--after June 5th!--is just 226-4.
Fabiana Murer REALLY has it easy! Her Age 35 target in the PV is a mere 13-7.25!!
34
Justin Gatlin has fairly easy 100 & 200 times to chase--9.91 and 19.88.
Ezekiel Kemboi has to run the 3000SC in 8:08.01, but only after May 25th!
PK Koech has the same target as Kemboi!
David Oliver has to run the 110H in 12.94, but after April 24th!
Kriszrian Pars has a HT target of 270-10!
Novlene Williams-Mills can start chasing the 400 mark of 50.71 starting April 26th!
Barbara Spotakova has until June 29th to get the JT mark of 227-11.
Both Jenn Suhr and Yelena Isinbayeva can get the 15-11 PV mark, but Isi has to wait until June 3rd!
33
Starting April 25th, Nick Willis can have the 1500 and Mile Records of 3:30.58 and 3:52.16.
Mo Farah has those same times to chase, plus Records for the 3000 (7:30.50), Two Mile (8:12.45),, 5000 (12:57.62), and 10000 (27:12.47.).
Starting June 4th, Olga Saladukha can get the TJ mark of 48-7.50!
32
Trey Hardee will need a Decathlon score of 8755!
Viola Kibiwot can chase marks in the 3000 (8:22.62), 5000 (14:31.09), 10000 (30:25.41), as well as the empty Two Mile slot!
Habiba Ghribi can start April 9th to chase the 3000SC Record of 9:21.76!
Caterine Ibarguen may be our greatest TJ'er now, but her target is a tough 50-6!
Betty Heidler has it much easier in the HT--just throw 246-0!
31
Aries Merritt is healthy again!
But he still must wait until July 24th to begin chasing the Age 31 mark of 13.00!!
Sanya Richards-Ross said she wants the American Record in the 400!
Well, a bit easier is the Age 31 mark of 48.85!
Shannon Rowbury has a handful (5!) of Age Records to go for!
3:56.91 & 4:23.40 in the 1500 & Mile, 8:35.26 & 9:53.35 (!!) in the 3000 and Two Mile, and the 5000 mark of 14:32.79!
(And yes, I think she's fully capable of getting the latter!!)
Anita Wlodarczyk will have it easy--starting August 8th, that is!--with the HT mark of 248-0!
30
As with Rowbury, Galen Rupp also has a series of marks to chase--beginning May 8th, that is!
Choose from the 3000 & 2 Mile (7:29.23 & 8:16.38), the 5000 and 10000 (12:49.04 & 26:29.22), or the Marathon--a mere 2:02:57!!
Go get 'em, Galen!!
The Merritt's (LaShawn & Aries) have Age 30 Records to chase--LaShawn the 400 of 43.68 (but only starting June 27th!!), and Aries the 12.88 in the 110H (but only up to July 23rd!).
Ivan Ukhov can have the HJ mark, if he jumps 7-9.25!
Usain Bolt has 100 & 200 times of 9.75 and 19.74 to chase, but only starting August 21st!!
Allyson Felix has to run the 200 in 21.66!!
Like other great distance runners, Tirunesh Dibaba will have several times to run down--pun intended!
(Until September 30th!!)
8:24.41 and 9:12.59 in the 3000 and 2 Mile, or 14:23.75 and 30:04.18 in the 5000 & 10000!!
Nikoleta Kiriakopoulou has the PV height of 15-11 to go after!
And Anita Wlodarczyk has her own Age 30 Record to get--her 265-3--but she must get it by August 7th!!
Okay, dear readers, I'll be back soon--2 hours??--with the remainder of my Age Record Predictions, as well as several good recent marks to report!
See you VERY soon!!
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