Tuesday, March 29, 2016

OUTdoor Records Predictions--Part 2

And here;s the rest of my Age Records Predictions!
(Well, not really predictions!  Just stating which Records are available for breaking, and by whom!!  The work is up to THEM!!)

 29
Mr Bolt need run only 9.79 and 19.55 in the 100 and 200 for Age 29 Records--that is, while he's still Age 29--aka up through August 20th!!
La Shawn Merritt has until June 26th to run a 400 in 43.65--matching his PR!--to get this mark!
Renaud Lavillenie has until September 28th to PV 19-8.25 for this Age Record!
Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce needs to PR in the 100--to 10.64--to match this Record!
Like most of the distance people, Jenny Simpson can select which Age Records to go after.
Up through August 22nd, she needs to run the 1500 & Mile in 3:54.23 and 4:22.18, or the 3000 & Two Mile in 8:23.26 and 9:20.25 (The latter Record is held by her "rival", Shannon Rowbury!!), or the 5000 in 14:26.90!
Brittney Reese needs to LJ 24-0.25 (through September 8th!), while Yarisley Silva has a PV target of 16-1.25, but starting on June 1st!

 28
Ashton Eaton can blindfold himself and get this Record--8900 points in the Decathlon!
Sofia Assefa needs to run the 3000SC in 9:08.37!

27
Ashton's wife--Ms Brianne Thiesen Hyphen--has a mere 6858 points to score in her specialty, the Heptathlon!!
Is David Rudisha back all the way?
(He began this year with a 1:44.7 in Australia a month or so ago!!)
He needs to run the 800 and the 1000 in 1:42.82 and 2:13.08 for those Records!
Asbel Kiprop will be gunning for some sturdy marks in the 1500 and Mile--3:26.84 and 3:46.71.
Yes, the Mile mark is the American Record of Alan Webb!!
BTW, Kiprop can't start chasing those marks until June 30th!
Evan Jager has the 3000SC mark of 8:00.43 to go after!
Joe Kovacs has a SP distance of 74-7.75 to go for, but only starting June 28th!
Pawel Fajdek must throw the Hammer 273-7!
And Julius Yego has a Javelin Throw distance of 313-10 to chase!

26
Asbel Kiprop will be 26 through June 29th!
His marks to go after are 3:26.12 and 3:44.45 in the 1500 and Mile!
(Prefontaine??)
Matthew Centrowitz has those same times as targets!
But he has all season!
Bogdan Bondarenko--if he's back!--needs to HJ 7-11.25!
Joe Kovacs has his own SP best of 74-0.25 to chase!
But he needs to do it by June 27th!
Christian Taylor turns 26 on June 18th, and his target is 58-8.75!
Mare (No Relation) Dibaba has a Marathon time of 2:19:59 to chase, but only through October 19th!
Hiwot Ayalew's 3000SC time to gun for is 9:06.72.

25
Mutaz Barshim had better return to form if he wants this HJ standard--it's the World Record of 8-0.50!!
He doesn't turn 25, however, until MY birthday--June 24th!!
And Christian Taylor--up through June 17th!--can target his own mark of 59-9 in the TJ!
Emma Coburn has a FAST 9:01.59 in the 3000SC to gun for!
(I believe she CAN get it!!)
And Genzebe (World Record Queen) Dibaba??
Oh shit, let her go after the 100, 200, the SP, the HT, the.....!!!!
Just JOKING!!
But she DOES have more targets to aim at than anyone else!!
800 of 1:55.05.  1000 in 2:30.6.  1500's a mere 3:53.96.  The Mile?  Eh!  Just 4:15.61.
The 3000 and Two Mile are 8:19.78 and 9:12.90.  Her 5000 target is a JOG of 14:28.39.
And the 10000 is 29:56.34!  But heck, go for the WR there, Genzebe!!  LOL

24
Wayde Van Niekerk has a PR time of 43.29 to shoot for!
But he has to wait until July 15th when he turns 24!
Pascal Martinot-Legarde has until September 21st to run the 110H in 12.94.
Mutaz Barshim has a slightly easier target HJ here--7-11.25!
And he has until June 23rd to get it!
Dafne Schippers and Elaine Thompson finished just 0.03 seconds apart in the WC 200 last year!
Their birthdays are relatively close too--June 15th for Dafne, and June 28th for Elaine!
So starting on those respective dates, their target in the 200 is the same--21.81.
Almaz Ayana has a few marks to aim for.
8:23.68 and 9:21.35 in the 3000 and Two Mile, 14:12.88 in the 5000, and 29:53.80 in the 10000!
Demi Payne  has through September 29th to PV 16-1.25!
Sandi Morris must wait until July 8th to go after the same height!

23
Kirani James has through August 31st, while Wayde Van Niekerk has only through July 14th to try to run the 400 in 43.45!
Ayanleh Souleiman needs a 1500 and Mile time of 3:26.00 (Just the WR!!) and 3:44.39!  Jairus Birech's 3000SC target is 7:55.72.
Sam Kendricks seems ready to go MUCH higher in the PV!
But can he reach 19-9.25 by September 6th??
Pedro (or whatever) Pichardo's TJ target is just 58-3.75--beginning June 30th!
Sandi Morris has through July 7th--Ringo Starr's 76th birthday, for all you Beatles fans!!--to reach 16-5.25 in the PV!!
Katarina Johnson-Thompson's Heptathlon score to chase is 6942!

22
Muhammed Aman has fast times in the 800 and 1000 to gun for--1:41.33 and 2:14.52.
Shawn Barber has 6 meters (or 19-8.25) in the PV to aim for, but starting on May 27th!
PPPPichardo  has through June 29th to TJ 58-9.50!
The new Discus Throw phenom--Sam Mattis--can target 222-9!!
Shaunae Miller's 200 and 400 times to go for are 21.62 and 48.27!
And yes, I believe she has that kind of potential--though maybe NOT in 2016!  We'll see!!
Ajee Wilson can go after the 800 and 1000 times of 1:55.32 and 2:29.34.
Difficult, but doable---eventually!!
Faith Kipyegon's another distancer with various targets!
3:56.60 and 4:17.75 in the 1500 and Mile, or 8:24.31 and 9:35.04 in the 3000 and 2 Mile, or 14:24.53 in the 5000.

21
Trayvon Bromell turns 21 on July 10th!
Starting then, he has VERY fast times of 9.69 and 19.26 in the 100 and 200 as his targets!
Shawn Barber has through May 26th to PV 19-9.25!

20
Trayvon Bromell has through July 9th to run the 100 and 200 in 9.89 and 19.63!
Dawit Seyaum's targets--beginning July 27th!!--in the Mile and Two Mile are 4:23.92 and 9:40.01.

19
Noah Lyles will turn 19 on July 18th!
His 100 and 200 targets from that date will be 9.84 and 19.81.
Too tough?
Well, in some interviews INdoors, he spoke of his goals being "9.7 and 19.7"!!
I believe he's capable of both!!
Konrad Bukowiecki's SP mark to aim for is 66-10.50--a mark he's already reached--at a younger age!!
Irene Ekelund's 200 target is 22.07.
Same for Ewe Swoboda, but add the 100 mark of 10.88 for her!
However, Swoboda doesn't turn 19 until July 26th!
Dawit Seyaum has MORE times to shoot for here than when she turns 20 on July 27th--the 1500 & Mile   (3:56.98 and 4:17.57), the 3000 and Two Mile (8:28.83 and 9:20.81).
Ruth Chebet's 3000SC time to aim at is 9:20.37.
Morgan Lake's Heptathlon point score to go after is a solid 6788!!
She turns 19 on May 12th!
There's FOUR female Pole Vaulters going after the same height of 15-9!
Only one of them has reached that mark already!!
New Zealand's Eliza McCartney SET this Record earlier this OUTdoor season!
Can she match or break it?
Yes.
But the other 3--Nina Kennedy, and the Weeks twins--Tori and Lexi--will be trying to raise their bars too!!
Kennedy turns 19 on April 5th!

18
Noah Lyles has slower times at this Age to aim for--9.97 and 19.99 in the 100 and 200.
Adam Hague's PV target--up through August 28th--will be 19-0.25!
Lazaro Martinez of Cuba has a TJ number of 56-9.50!
Kaylin Whitney and Ewe Swoboda both have 100 and 200 times of 10.89 and 22.18 to aim for!
But Swoboda has to do it no later than July 25th!
Vashti Cunningham's HJ mark to aim for is 6-7.

0-17
(NOTE: If you've been a long-time reader of my blog, then you know I don't have Records for specific ages lower than 17!  Thus, my Category of "0-17"--meaning any age up to and including Age 17!  But If I have reliable sources, I DO report occasional Records for younger ages!!  They're just not part of my Record Book!!)
Mondo Duplantis has the mark set by Adam Hague last year--18-4.50 in the PV--to aim for!
And Duplantis may still be just 16!!  Don't know his birthdate, but I'm sure it's 17 or younger!
Chris Taylor's 400 time target is 44.71.
Candace Hill has her own 100 time of 10.98--set last year when she was only 16!!--to shoot for!
She can also try for Allyson Felix's time of 22.11 in the 200!
Sydney McLaughlin only turns 17 on August 7th.
Thus, she'll have until August 6th of 2017 to get this Record!!
It's the 400H mark of 54.93.
Nina Kennedy's Record of 15-0.75--set last year--can be matched or broken by Wilma Murto or Lisa Gunnarson!
Gunnarson, I believe, is about a year younger than Murto!

I was a bit more "conservative" in my listing of Age Record candidates this year--listing just the ones who I felt had SERIOUS potential or ability to get the particular Record!
That said, even THESE people won't all be successful!
In fact, here's some numbers from 2015 that talk to this!

In the 24 events for which I have OUTdoor Age Records  (Same for both genders, except the Men do the Decathlon, while the Women do the Heptathlon, and the Men's High Hurdles distance is 110 meters, while the Women run 100 meters!), there are just 56 Age Records that have 2015 as their date!
And they were pretty evenly divided--29 for the Men, and 27 for the Women!
By event, here's the breakdown--all Records set in 2015!

Men have 4 Age Records in the 100 (19, 29, 33, 39) and SP (18, 24, 26, 37).
Women have 4 in the Marathon (19, 32, 38, 40 & over).

Men have 3 in the 1500 (19, 32, 40 & over).
Women have 3's in the 1500 (22, 24, 30), the HJ (0-17, 33, 39), and PV (0-17, 28, 34).

A pair each for the Men in the 200 (29, 33), 400 (29, 36), Marathon (33, 40 & over), and TJ (21, 25).
For the Women, 2 each in the 200 (19, 23), 1000 (19, 34), 3000SC (31, 37), 100H (19, 23), and HT (29, 30).

One apiece for the Men in the 800 (40 & over), 1000 (27), Mile, 3000, and 5000 (all 40 & over--Guess who?!), 10000 (32), 3000SC (33), PV (0-17), JT (26), and Decathlon (27)!
For the Women, one each went in the 100 (0-17), Mile (29), DT (25), and JT (18).

Shut out in the Age Record category for the Men were the 2 Mile, 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, DT, and HT!
For the Women, they got ZERO Age Records in the 400, 800, 3000, Two Mile, 5000, 10000, 400H, LJ, TJ, SP,, and Heptathlon!

I know this has been a LONG post already, but I want to clear the decks of marks I have stored BEFORE the Texas Relays get under way tomorrow!!
So take a break, then return for some pretty fair EARLY EARLY marks!!

The World Championship Half-Marathon was run in Cardiff, Wales!
MO FARAH LOST!!
Okay, so in non-track races, he's lost before!
Still, it's worth headline status--old NY Daily News style!  LOL
Geoff Kamworor fell at the start, had to wiggle through 100's of joggers during a 4:15 Mile (!!!) to catch up, then won in a GREAT time of 59:10!!
Bedan Karoki was 2nd in 59:36, followed by Farah and Abeynah Ayele, both timed in 59:59!
First American was Tim Ritchie in 23rd, time of 1:03:49!

The Women's winner was Peres Jepchirchir, time of 1:07:31.
Cythia Limo took 2nd in 1:07:34, while Mary Ngugi was 3rd in 1:07:54.
Janet Bawcom was 1st US in 11th, time of 1:10:46, while Sara Hall was 15th in 1:10:58.

Various Women got decent PV marks.
14-9's went to Lexi Weeks (3 misses at 15-1), Kristen Hixson, April Steiner-Bennett, and Alysha Newman.
Weeks and Newman both are now 6th A-T Collegiate, tied with 6 others, including each other!
Lexi also becomes 22nd A-T US, tied with 8 others!
Newman is Canadian!
Demi Payne and Annie Rhodes both reached 14-7.25.
Rhodes keeps improving, and is now 16th A-T Collegiate, tied with 6 others.
Tori Pena reached 14-5.25, while Tori Weeks got over 14-1.25.
Desiree Freier competed as unattached (!!)  in the same Arkansas meet as the Weeks girls, but could reach just 13-5.25.
Not sure if she's redshirting, or why she was listed as unattached!

A DEEP field of HS Milers were seen at a meet in California--and they ran a full Mile, NOT the 1600!!
ELEVEN guys broke 4:10, with 3 going sub-4:05!!
Connor Dunne's 4:04.59 beat Austin Tamagno's 4:04.83 and Eduardo Herrero's 4:04.99.
Tyler James ran 4:05.97, with 7 more coming through in the next 4 seconds!!
My Top 24 list ends at 4:02.70, but JEEZ, to have 11 guys sub-4:10 in one race in March!!
WOW!!

Shayla Sanders had a good sprint double, winning in 11.13 and 22.77, both wind legal!
She beat the 11.21 of INdoor sensation Teahna Daniels in the 100, and the 22.83 of Morolake Akinosun in the 200!
All wind-legal!
Tinesha Mutanga beat Tevin Hester in a legal 200, 20.52 to 20.60!
Ricky Morgan won the 400 in 45.54.

But it was Jaide Stepter who REALLY shone!!
She blasted into the World 400 lead with her 50.91!!
She misses my Collegiate DDD by just 0.04 seconds!!

Eric Futch edged Byron Robinson in the 400H, 49.45 to 49.48.

Sage Watson ran a 400 in 52.20.

The PAC 12-Big 10 dual's Men's 800 was a good one!
Daniel Kuhn won in 1:46.69 over the 1:46.90 of Collins Kibet and the 1:47.24 of Eugene Hamilton!
Dominique Scott took a solo 1500 in 4:15.61.

Raven Saunders had a "down" meet, reaching "just" 59-6.75 in the SP, 182-11 in the DT, and 186-7 in the HT!!
That's all!
Chace Ealey took 2nd in the SP with a good 58-1.25!

In separate meets, Shelbi Vaughan threw the Discus 194-5, while Kelsey Card got a hit that measured 194-7!
Jason Young had a DT of 208-6.
Tripp Piperi improved (again!) in the HS Shot Put--this time to 70-5.50, moving him up one place on my Top 24 Performers list, from 22nd to 21st A-T HS!

Norman Grimes ran the "adult" 400H, timing 50.50, but it's not a PR!

Fran McCorory worked on her speed, running 100's of 11.55 (heat) and 11.77 (final).
Wind readings were 1.9 and 1.2.
Chanelle Price stuck with the 1500, improving her 2016 best to 4:17.59.
Trey McRae HJ'ed 7-4.50.
A good Women's 4X400 Relay saw USC's 3:29.73 beating Florida's 3:30.07!

But I saved the best--or maybe most shocking--for last!
Curtis Thompson suddenly exploded out to 265-10 in the JT!!
I believe his best previous mark was about 246!
It's the Collegiate Soph Class Record!
It makes him 12th A-T Collegiate!
And he's now 20th A-T United States!!

Two brief news items.
Sandi Morris--after discussions with her coach--decided to NOT compete against the World Class field of Jenn Suhr and Demi Payne at the Texas Relays!!
This news came suddenly in a tweet, after great anticipation was built up--with the thought of seeing THREE sixteen footers in a meet---in March!!
(Though I'm not certain what day the Women's PV takes place, as the meet ends April 2nd!)

Also, the mysterious Mary Cain has been announced as part of the 1500 field in the Drake Relays!
Treniere Moser will also be there, as well as World Class fields in other events!

See you all soon, and thanks for hanging in there!!

CORRECTIONS made!
In my OUTdoor Preview post--with the year's schedule, I made a HUGE error!
(Although I was copying T&FN's HUGE error!!  LOL)
The Qualifying meet for the World Juniors does not come AFTER the meet you're trying to qualify for!!
I had the WJC's dates as being in June!
They're scheduled for July 19-24!!

Also, It's Wilma MurtO--not Wilma MurtA.
Sorry!







No comments:

Post a Comment