Thursday, January 2, 2014

Which Indoor Records to Fall in 2014? Women

And now for my women's predictions!

World
60 (6.92) If Shelly-Ann were to try for it, this VERY good record could go!  It's been 21 years!!
200 (21.87) Another VERY tough record, also 21 years old!  Felix may not be fully back from her injury.  Kim Duncan ran 21.80 with a slight wind in 2013 outdoors.  Can she duplicate that indoors?
400 (49.59) Yes another SUPER record, this one dating from 1982!!  Ohuruogu & Montsho both ran 49.41 at WC.  McCorory is much improved.  This could go!
1000 (2:30.94) Brenda Martinez will run the 1K at Millrose.  She's HOT (as a runner, silly!).  Will her 2013 outdoor momentum continue indoors in 2014?  Two NOP girls, Cain & Moser, will be running this in Boston.  But they don't seem at this level just yet!  (See more predictions on the female NOP'ers, to follow!)
1500 & 1 Mile (3:58.28 & 4:17.14) The NOP Quartet of Rowbury, Cain, Moser & Hasay will race the mile in Boston!  (Who else??)  That mile mark of Melinte's is now 23 years old!  The mile is slightly easier than the 1500.  They'd have to be at 4:00 or 4:01 at 1500 to get it!
2 Mile (9:06.26) Tirunesh D said she could've gotten this at Boston last year, but the pacing was off.  If either of the D's (Dibaba & Defar) try for it...in the SAME race!!...it could go!  The 3K is too hard to get enroute.  I doubt Jenny Simpson can run this, but she'll do a 2 mile at Millrose!
5000 (14:24.37) Again, it would take one of the D's going for it...seriously!
60H (7.68) Is Rollins ready to flash her 12.26 power indoors?  (She holds the CR, at 7.78!!)  Will Pearson challenge her?  And what about all the other Americans?
HJ (6-9.75) As with the men, there's a top-end group (Chicherova, Barrett, Shkolina) who could fight each other at the WIC for this WR.
PV (16-5.50) Suhr got this last year!  If the 16 Foot Club competes together, one of them can break it!  But I'm not SUHR (Heh!) which one!
WT (83-10.25) This is not an international event.  Few outside the USA compete in this event.  If they did, this mark might not even be in the Top 10!!  (With all due respect to Riley!!)
The Relays (3:23.37, 8:06.24, 10:50.98) IF a National team goes for these, they're all breakable.  (USA, GB, Russia??)

USA
60 (6.95) Devers did this 21 years ago.  Marion Jones matched it in 1998...presumably without the help of drugs!!  There's several young USA sprinters fresh from breakthrough 2013 seasons!
200 (22.18) (See World predictions for this event!)
400 (50.54) McCorory holds this AR.  She had her best year ever in 2013 outdoors.  Enough said!  (Felix & Richards-Ross are returning from injury.)
800 (1:58.71) A great race is set for Millrose, with Cain & Wilson among the entrants.  Wilson ran 0.50 faster outdoors last year.  Mary Cain has the potential to go this fast.  That race could see BOTH break it!  But it's a toughie, now 12 years old!
1000 (2:34.19)  Martinez will challenge this one at Millrose, with Cain and Moser due for a duel in Boston.  Maybe all of them can get this relatively easy mark!
1500 & 1 Mile (3:59.98 & 4:20.5) The mile AR is MUCH easier than the 1500 (About 4:03 or 4:04 at 1500 enroute!).  The NOP Quartet of Rowbury, Cain, Moser, and Hasay will be racing this in Boston.
2 Mile (9:23.38) Jenny Simpson WILL smash this record to pieces at Millrose!!  If she doesn't...I hope those NOP gals will add this distance to their list of record attempts!!  (The 3000 mark of Flanagan's is too difficult to get enroute!
5000 (14:47.62) Don't know of any scheduled attempts for this Flanagan AR.  It would take a VERY serious effort!  (Molly Huddle??)
60H (7.72) (Again, see my World predictions above!)
HJ (6-7.50) Barrett has topped this mark outdoors...more than once!  Is Lowe herself coming back from giving birth last summer??
LJ (23-8.75) Reese is ALWAYS capable of  breaking her own 2012 AR.  That is, when she doesn't foul!
PV (16-5.50) I'm NOT going to make another play on Suhr's name!!  (SUHRly not!!) LOL
SP (65-3.25) Camerena-Williams is pregnant!  But Michelle Carter isn't!!  It's her's for the taking!
WT (83-10.25) Amanda Bingson broke the HT record twice last year!  Don't know if she'll try for this one.
All the Relays (See World predictions above!)

Collegiate
60 & 200 (7.09 & 22.40) Seems all the REALLY great collegians are going pro before graduating!  But the Collegiate ranks always produce great sprinters.  Both of these records are vulnerable.
400 (50.54)  McCorory's CR is good, but Ashley Spencer is capable of challenging it.
800 (2:00.75) A good mark, but Laura Roesler had her best year in 2013.  She's back!
1000 (2:41.00) Probably the easiest CR to get, but it's not often run by the top women.  If Roesler (or D'Agostino??) gave it a go, it WOULD be broken!
1500 & 1 Mile (4:10.20 & 4:25.91) Simpson's (Actually, she was then Jenny Barringer!) mile mark is much better than the 1500.  It's worth maybe 4:08 at 1500.  The middle distances are in a Renaissance of sorts in recent years in the US.  And there are some fast collegians who haven't graduated or turned pro!
5000 (15:14.18)  Abbey D is finishing her great career at Dartmouth.  She might want to go out as the CR holder here!!  She's surely capable!  I don't believe they're at this level yet, but I'll be watching to see what times freshmen Erin Finn and Wesley Frazier can run at this distance.  Remember their fabulous finish at NBN last year??
PV (14-11) This event is ALWAYS vulnerable.  Breakthroughs happen frequently.  Waiting for that first INdoor 15 footer!
4X800R (8:25.5) I mention this one relay for 2 reasons.  One, it's now 27 years old!!  Two, at Penn last year, TWO teams broke the outdoor CR!!  Will Villanova and Oregon go at it INdoors??

High School
60 & 200 (7.19 & 22.97)  No one broke 7.30 last year, but there's some top name sprinters back in 2014.  The 200 HSR seems a bit easier than the 60.

NOTE: The Mary Cain Question.  As a Pro runner now, while still a HS student, is she even eligible to break HSR's??  And who determines this?  T&FN??  Some HS federation?  Me?  (LOL)  I'm saying Cain IS eligible!!  And that's the way I'll be treating this "problem" from here on!!

800 (2:01.8) Cain should go sub-2:00!!  If she doesn't break this, can Raevyn Rogers??
1000 (2:43.40) Sarah (Bowman) Brown's HSR is now 9 years old.  Cain, Alexa Efraimson, and Elise Cranny are all capable of getting it. It's a 2:10 800 with a last 200 in 33!
1500 & 1 Mile (4:11.72 & 4:28.25) See USA predictions above.  Add Cranny and Efraimson as solid challengers.
3000 & 2 Mile (9:04.51 & 9:38.68)  Cain got the Golden opportunity last year to smash the records, running in the same race as Tirunesh D.  And she did it!  But as of now, Cain isn't scheduled for a 2 mile (or 3K).  But she, and the other two BIG names, are surely capable of bringing these HSR's down to unbeatable territory!
5000 (16:18.01) I doubt Cain will run this indoors!  But again, Efraimson and Cranny, not to mention Sarah Baxter (and, believe it or not, 3 or 4 others!), are ALL well able to bring this record DOWN!!  And I mean UNDER 16 minutes!
60H (8.16) Dior Hall returns!  She ran within 0.01 of the record last year!
HJ (6-3) The HJ at HS level made a comeback last year, with several over 6 feet.  Cyre Virgo and Vashti Cunningham were 2 of them.  They're back.  Bernhagen's mark is now 30 years old!!
LJ (21-7.50) Carol Lewis's HSR is even older than Bernhagen's, as she set it in 1981.  Courtney Corrin is just a soph now, but she set the 9th grade OUTdoor mark (21-0) last year!  Can she improve 8 inches?
TJ (44-6.75) Kiturah Orji came SO close to the OUTdoor record last year! Can she be the first over 45 feet?
PV (14-2.50) As I said earlier, PV marks at the Collegiate and HS levels are vulnerable.  Same goes here.
SP (54-9.50) Carter's mark dates from 2003.  Last year, Maggie Ewen reached 54-1 indoors.  This year, Raven Saunders EXPLODED all the way from 42+ to 53-8 just a couple of weeks ago!!  If she continues as she has, a 55 footer is in the stars!
All the Relays   Too many to list!!  HS'ers run a LOT more relay distances....and a lot more relays, period!....than in the other categories. None of the HSR's were broken last year!  But ALL of them could go!!

Now let the games begin!!!

1 comment:

  1. Whether any of the records mentioned fall or not, this is a great indoor season preview highlighting many interesting things to watch for. Thanks for your efforts.

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