Rio--The Women--Part 1

Check my first Men's post for what these are all about.
But basically, I list the event (in order of the finals), then the OG Meet Record, followed by commentary on names to watch, who I picked for medals, and the odds of the MR being broken!!
These are the first 11 Women's finals!!

10000  (29:54.66)
What a way to kick off these Games for the Women--with maybe THE most fascinating event of the whole schedule!!
And for once, we could actually see a distance event MR going down in a major meet---no rabbits, no beer to drink between laps--and no Russians!
(Not that they'll be missed here, as the 10K isn't their specialty!!)
But Tirunesh Dibaba--the Baby-Faced Destroyer of Yore--is BACK!!
And she has a "Monster in the Closet" ready to take her down, then stomp on her pretty face!!
HER name is Almaz Ayana, and IF all the elements come into play, this could be the distance running equivalent of the Ali-Frazier Heavyweight Championship from 1974!!
But who's going to be eating the track at the finish line?
And how long will we have to wait to find out!
Ayana loves to attack with a large chunk of the race left to run---and I mean ATTACK!!
(8:19 for her last 3000 of last year's 5K!!)
If she pounces here, will---CAN---Tiru follow??
I'm giving this to Genzebe's sister, with Ayana VERY close, but with a lot more space between her and the Bronze girl, Molly Huddle!
Yes, I think Huddle's going to take 3rd--maybe in American Record time!!
This time, Emily Infeld won't be close--even though she might break 31 also!!
Watch also for Betsy Saina, Vivian Cheruiyot, Gelete Burka, and new Kenyan speedster, Alice Aprot!!
Back a ways will follow Marielle Hall, Susan Kuijken, Dominique Scott, Jess Andrews (the new British star!), and the 42 year old Jo Pavey!!
That Greek-American film star slash runner, Alexi Pappas, will find that racing for Greece won't get her to Marathon any faster!

SP  (73-6.25, or 22.41)
Valerie is back!
Okay, not in full VALERIE ADAMS IS GOD dress, but close enough to promise a clean victory in Rio!
That is, unless Shot Diva Michelle Carter blows one out there, or Raven Saunders has one of her "improve 2 feet in one throw" kind of sessions!!
However much I'd LOVE for Saunders to medal, she won't!
Christine Schwanitz will follow Adams and Carter!
The only real threat to this trio is China's Lijiao Gong, and she is a REAL threat!!
Anita Marton had a good INdoor WC series, but will get swallowed up here--as will Cleopatra Borel, Yang Gao, and the 3rd American, Felicia Johnson!
The MR?
You gotta be kidding!!
Zero, baby, ZERO!!

100  (10.62)
This is a "pin the tail on the donkey" kind of field--where any of 5 or 6 women have an equal chance to win!
Elaine Thompson has 2016's fastest time--a 10.70.
English Gardner ran 10.74.
Then there's Dafne Schippers, and Tori Bowie, and Tianna Bartoletta!
Lest you think I'm blind (I am!!), I have NOT overlooked the two Acronym Women---VCB and SAFP!
Veronica Campbell-Brown just isn't in this class anymore.
And Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce has too many questions to answer!
IF the latter is healthy AND fully ready, then put her right in the mix--her long green glittery hair flowing behind her as she speeds down the track!!
But I'm giving this to the Mighty Schippers, who just has too much POWER to ignore!
Thompson gets the Silver, with Gardner owning the Bronze!
(Flip those around any way you want!!)
Michelle Lee-Ahye is one who COULD shock---at least for Bronze!
Blessing Okagbare and Muriel Ahoure are returning vets, while Ewe Swoboda and Khalifa St Fort are there for the experience.
Britain's Asha Phillip is a potential shocker!
Odds are 10-90 for a new Meet Record!

Heptathlon  (7291)
No Meet Record, but it wouldn't surprise me if one, two, or even all three of the medalists got near, or over, the 7000 point wall!!
The Hyphens (NOT a 60's Motown group!!)--aka Katarina Johnson-Thompson (KJT), Brianne Thiesen-Eaton (BTE), and Jessica Ennis-Hill (JEH)--will be the medalists IMHO---and in that order!
BTW, there's two MORE Hyphens here--Laura Ikauniece-Admidina (LIA??) and Heather Miller-Koch (HMK?)!!
And both are solid back-ups to the "winners"!
In fact, this event could see several Place Records broken!
(See my Place Records posts!!)
But a Heptathlon has 7 chances to mess up!!
Just ONE bad event can end your Olympic medal dreams!
(Don't even think of fouling 3 LJ's, KJT!!)
Akela Jones, and the 2 other Americans--Kendell Williams and Barbara Nwaba--are rock solid, but not yet in the territory of the Hyphens!!

Marathon  (2:23:07)
With only Mare (No Relation) Dibaba a real superstar, this race could provide ALL THREE Americans with a chance to make headlines!!
Yes, they are that good!
So I'm going WAY out on the proverbial limb, and predicting Des Linden and Amy Cragg to follow Dibaba to the finish line--with Shalane Flanagan not very far behind!!
Other Africans are good--Tigist Tufa, Jemima Sumgong, and Tirfi Tsegaye!
Any let-up by the "Gringos" will find them sweeping right by, pretty as you please!!
A couple of others to watch are Valeria Strainio, who's now Age 40!, and Sara Moreira.
Lanni Marchant is a strong Canadian, but maybe a mile or so behind the lead group!
One interesting "feature" story here is that TRIPLETS---from Estonia---are all in this race.
They are the Luik girls--Leila, Liina, and Lily!!
(Kind of like the Borlee's---who can only claim Twin-dom---and without having to carry a baton for 26.2 miles!!)

TJ  (50-6, or 15.39)
Caterine Ibarguen!
Do we need anyone else?
If she doesn't win---by a BIG margin, I may quit this here predicting silliness!!
One of the clearest favorites in Rio, I gave her the Gold, no hesitation!
I also fell right in line for Olga Rypakova getting Silver.
But Bronze was where I went with blind faith--and selected Keturah Orji!!
If this were a few years ago---when 49's and even 50's were fairly common--Orji would've been left on the bench!
But the Women's TJ this year isn't very strong--with only Ibarguen, as noted, the lone standout!
So the Georgia Bulldog, aka the Collegiate and American Record holder, has a solid chance to medal!
She's technically sound, has the youth momentum factor going for her, and has been pretty consistent, both meet to meet, and in her series!!
One person I haven't mentioned---but who was VERY good INdoors--is Yulimar Rojas.
Watch for her!
The MR is safe, with close to zero odds---maybe 5-95?

HT  (256-6, or 78.18)
Here's another event that ends after one person's name is printed!
Anita Wlodarczyk!
266-0 WR, with another throw of 265-3, and several others over 260!
Only one other in this field has EVER reached that barrier, and Betty Heidler is far from THAT Betty Heidler!!
In fact, it wouldn't shock me to see her having difficulty making the final!!
(It happened before!!)
While China's Zheng Wang should Silver, the American Record holding Gwen Berry has a VERY decent chance to take the Bronze!
But there are some solid vets out there, and they're all threats to Berry--or even Wang!!
They are Martina Hrasnova, Wenxiu Zhang, and Kathrin Klaas!
The other Americans--Amber Campbell and DeAnna Price--are possible finalists, but probably on the lower levels!
That Meet Record should choose burial or cremation--it's DEAD!!
100 to 0!!

3000SC  (8:58.81)
That MR is the WR!!
And both (the same!) might go down!!
Ruth Chebet and Hyvin Jepkemoi, who raced to times of 8:59.97 and 9:00.01 not long ago--are here, and ready to go several seconds faster!
The woman who was 3rd behind them--in her latest American Record time of 9:10.76--Emma Coburn--is ready to knock several seconds off of HER time too!!
But probably not (yet!) in sub-9 territory!!
It's difficult to tell if they're on record pace until maybe 1800 meters, or 3 laps to go!
If they hit 1800 at 5:30 on the clock, the WR is gone!
Expect a couple of 68-70 laps from there, then an all-out low 60's!!
Many a MALE attempt at a WR fell off quickly at 2K, so that's where the women are separated from the girls!!
The other Americans, Colleen Quigley and Courtney Frerichs--both newbie Profeshes--are strong, and getting stronger, so expect them both to PR--if they're on!!
If Coburn has a bad day (She never has!!!), one of them could be the shock replacement!!
Etanesh Diro, Habiba Ghribi, Sofia Assefa, Hiwot Ayalew---all rock solid in their day---may be a bit off that level of quality---opening the door to the Americans!
Also interesting to watch are Gesa Krause, Erin Teschuk, Aisha Praught, and GenGen LaCaze!

400  (48.25)
This is the "earthquake" event!
Meaning, there's been quite the shake-up in the list of potential entrants!
NOT here are Fran McCorory, Courtney Okolo, or Sanya Richards-Ross, among the Americans!
(The first two ARE here---for Relay duty only!  And SRR--newly retired--is in Rio also--ready to do NBC commentary!!)
And, needless to say, no Russians either!!
Last word heard from AF's camp is that she's in shape, NOT hurting at all, and ready for her Olympic swan song!!
We shall see!
IF the above is not just a bunch of BS, then chalk Allyson in as your Gold winner--just as I have!
I've got Shaunae Miller in 2nd, with Phyllis Francis picking up the Bronze!
Miller is VERY good---and might soon surpass Felix's PR's--but facing a "healthy" Felix in her prime is a mountain she's not quite ready to conquer!
That said, we could see both go sub-49!!
Novlene Williams-Mills, Stephanie McPherson, and Christine Day--Jamaicans all--are solid threats to the top 3.
Also keep one eye open for super vets Christine Ohuruogu and Natasha Hastings!
Taylor Ellis-Watson or Seren Bundy-Davies are good to make the final---if there's a lane open!
Pretty close to ZERO odds for the MR going down!

DT  (237-2, or 72.30)
The MR is safe, with maybe a 2% chance of anyone even getting within a meter of it!
The two who have that kind of potential are Denia Caballero and Sandra Perkovic--with the latter having Gold in her future!
Perky's lost before--including to Caballero!--but she's also super reliable in Championship settings, and even at just 26, is much experienced in the stratospheric environment of an Olympic Games!
Behind those two, Julia Fischer has some big marks.
But Australia's Dani Samuels has been consistently good of late, so I'm giving her the Bronze ahead of Fischer.
Nadine Muller is another vet who will make life difficult for anyone trying to get past her!
Thus, the 3 Americans--Whitney Ashley, Shelbi Vaughan, and Kelsey Card--might have their Olympic experience ended BEFORE reaching the final!
It WOULD be nice, however, if one or two of them DID get there---even in the lower realms!!

1500  (3:53.96)
Shoot me NOW, please!!
I just wrote--for posterity's sake--my choices for Gold, Silver, and Bronze!
Are you ready?
(Am I??)
OK, friends, here goes!
Bronze--Laura Muir
Silver--Brenda Martinez
Gold--Jenny Simpson
So where, you ask is the American Record holder, Shannon Rowbury?
Where are Faith Kipyegon, Dawit Seyaum, Mo Friggin' Foster, Sifan Hassan, Meraf Bahta, and Laura Weightman??
And where in the EFFing world is (trumpets, please!) GENZEBE DIBABA???
Well, first, unless you've been living on a deserted island somewhere for the past few months, then you know GD has been embroiled in her Coach's Animal House Toga Party Flush-the Dope-down-the -TOILET fiasco--and has a few dozen little question marks sitting on her shoulders!!
Okay, so it's not that apocalyptic, but it still leaves Dibaba off the podium, IMHO!!
If I've just tipped over into Happy Pills-land, then forgive me!
I may be LITERALLY certifiable seconds after the results are known!!
A slight bit seriously--Brenda DOES have the necessary wheels to kick into a medal spot!
Simpson DOES have some street cred as a rock solid Championship meet racer!
And Muir just crashed into the sub-4 world--with a vengeance!!
So they're not exactly empty threats!!
BTW, have fun watching what German teen phenom Konstanze Klosterhalfen does in her heat!
She's a notorious front-runner!!
The Meet Record should be the same post-race--so I'll give it 10-90 odds!

I'll be back---ready or not!---in a few hours with Part 2 of my Men's Preview---with the last part of my Women's Preview coming a few hours after that!!