Here's the final 13 events for the Men!
See my first Men's post for all the usual guideline info!
3000SC (8:05.51)
He almost won in Paris last year!
Then he fell over the last barrier, losing the race, and a time that begins with a 7.
His name is Evan Jager, and this time, he's not going to fall, he's going to win, and his time WILL begin with the number 7.
Yes, my pick for gold is Mr Bun himself!
He will leave Consesius Kipruto and Ezekiel Kemboi somewhere to his rear, then will deliver a finishing kick that will shock and awe!!
No denying the Africans are good---VERY good!
But Jager was ready to crash their party in 2016---before HE crashed!!
This time, no crashes, no regrets, no loss!!
Mehedine Mekhissi is dangerous, but can be contained.
Don Cabral, another American, might be ready for an 8:10, but that won't get him near the medalists!
400H (46.78)
Last year's World Championship race produced the lone sub-48 time of the year.
These Olympics might do the same---or maybe not!
This event, as I've noted in other posts, is in the doldrums, time-wise!
It would be nice if 3 or 4 could dip under 48---but I don't see that happening!!
Nicholas Bett---who ran that 47.79 last year---will win this one too!
Michael Tinsley and Kerron Clement should follow.
Javier Culson, Jehue Gordon, Jeff Gibson, and LJ Van Zyl are contenders to make the final!
Watch for the Jamaican kid, Jaheel Hyde!
He's sort of the male version of Sydney McLaughlin, with potential and wheels in his favor!!
As if you haven't already figured it out, the odds for this MR falling are ZILCH!!
SP (73-8.75, or 22.47)
If this were a Diamond League meet, I'd give this MR 40-60 odds.
But for some reason, Putters rarely throw as far as they're able in Championship settings as they can in a one-off Invitational!!
So the odds here fall to 20-80!
While Joe Kovacs has the longest throw of recent years and a high degree of consistency, I'm seeing Tom Walsh taking Gold over Kovacs.
For Bronze, I WANTED to go with Ryan Crouser, but decided he just wasn't steady enough.
He's still raw---which I suppose could be either good or bad!
So watch for him to be the X factor!
However, as I recently reported, Stephen Mozia PR'ed by more than two FEET recently, all the way to 71-4.75!!
If he's in that range, Bronze could be his!!
O'Dayne Richards, Tomas Majewski, David Storl, and the youngster, Konrad Bukowiecki, are major threats to those ahead of them!!
Darrell Hill is probably there for the experience!
Decathlon (8893)
The MR should have been broken 4 years ago!
But Ashton Eaton wanted to win---which he did---and wasn't as concerned with records!!
Hopefully, his attitude has changed!
He CAN break the World Record here---his own!
So scoring 8894 points (1 point over the MR) should be a piece of cake for this Master of the Multis!
He may even HAVE to score that much--just to win!!
Damian Warner of Canada is a vastly improved 10-eventer---and even has a 100 time faster than the speedy Mr Eaton!!
So don't be shocked if Warner is leading after the first event!!
As I noted with the Heptathlon preview, just ONE bad event can kill your dreams of a medal---or even finishing!!
But these two are Pro's, and shouldn't have that kind of problem!!
Jeremy Taiwo, Lindon Victor, Arthur Obele, Willem Coertzen, Kevin Mayer, and Leonel Suarez could get Place Records in this solid field.
Watch for Zach Ziemek and Kurt Felix!
80-20 for the MR falling--this time!
200 (19.30)
Usain Bolt says he can run 18-something---in Rio!!
You know what?
I believe he CAN!!
But WILL he??
That's a big 0.20 seconds improvement on his PR--which happens to be the World Record!!
The MR would be a whole lot easier, so I'll give that one 70-30 odds!!
But whether his time is 18.99 or 19-something, I can't see Bolt losing!
Justin Gatlin, his main rival of 2015, has been harassed in Rio--a young female American swimmer said LOUDLY that people like Gatlin--and she NAMED him!!--shouldn't be allowed to compete here!!
That pissed him off!
Whether he can channel that anger into the juice needed to run fast is yet to be seen.
For that reason, I'm giving Silver to LaShawn Merritt over Justin's Bronze!
Of course, Merritt's new PR of 19.74 would be dangerous, even if Gatlin was happy as a lamb!!
Andre De Grasse, Yohan Blake, Miguel Francis, Femi Ogunode, and Ameer Webb could surprise.
But Bolt is a solid bet for Gold!
50000 Walk (3:35:59)
Admittedly, despite having a stronger interest in RaceWalking than ever before, I don't know many names here.
So I've just picked a few names I DO know for my medal picks.
Yohan Diniz holds the WR with a time about 3 minutes faster than this MR!
Even so, I'll give the odds only as 40-60.
Jared Tallent has the---talent (sic!!)--to win it all, but may not have the legs--pardon all these cliched puns!!
But I'll give him Silver over Matej Toth, who's reliably fast--and a winner!!
Miguel Lopez is good, as are Robert Heffernan, Zhen Wang, Wei Yu, and Erick Barrondo!
HT (278-2, or 84.80)
Just as with the Women, the Men's Hammer Throw has one standout performer, name of Pawel Fajdek!!
His throws of over 83 meters are miles ahead (Pardon!!) of everyone else here, despite the presence of two storied veterans, names of Krisztian Pars and Ivan Tikhon!!
Put Tikhon in 2nd, with Pars 3rd!
Rudy Winkler, the specs-wearing youngster (comparatively!) is much-improved, and could be ready to take over as America's best!!
Odds for a MR are 30-70--and that's probably 10 or 15 points too high!!
4X100 Relay (36.84)
Aaah, now we get to the Roller Coaster ride!!
Hang on, Baby!!
Remember that old hair-something commercial, where they asked--"Does she, or doesn't she?"??
Well, here the question becomes--Will he, or won't he, EFF UP the baton pass, causing a DNF or a DQ??
For we Americans, it's become the stuff of nightmares, and endless Message Board discussion!!
With no easy solutions!!
So---IF the US team holds onto the baton, and completes each pass within the pass zones--then we have the wheels to---LOSE--to Jamaica!!
That's what I said!
With a revived Yohan Blake, and a super-dominant Usain Bolt, there's no way the US beats the Jams!!
And the MR--aka WR--are in mortal danger!!
Give it 80-20 odds!!
Great Britain should win the Bronze, with Germany, Canada, and Japan in the final also---to pick up the pieces--just in case!!
JT (297-1, or 90.57)
This exciting event is in a sort of Green Room---the place where people wait to go on stage at a TV studio!
We've HAD some great throws in recent years, but it seems most of them come from folks we LEAST expect to be World Class JT'ers!
Keshorn Walcott and Julius Yego are two great examples!!
But Europe still has some studs---and Thomas Rohler is the hottest of them, getting THIS close to 300 feet!!
Yego's been there and done that, but not this year!
So give Rohler the Gold, with Yego beating Antti Ruuskanen for the Silver!
Vitezslav Vesely is solid, as is Tero Pitkamaki.
MR odds are 50-50!!
1500 (3:32.07)
They haven't run any REALLY fast times this year!
No 3:26's or 3:27's!
And they won't here either, as these kinds of races are "strategically" run!
Odds for even the MR going down are just 30-70!
Even though Asbel Kiprop and Ayanleh Souleiman are here, don't look for a catfight to take the lead--at least not until there's just 300 meters to run!
At that point, it would be pretty much anyone's race!
Even Matthew Centrowitz has a chance to medal!
In fact, I gave him the Silver--behind Kiprop--who has a bit more burn left on his wheels than Centro does!
Taoufik Makhloufi, Ron Kwemoi, Aman Wote, Mekonnen Gebremedhim, Abdelaati Iguider, and Elijah Manangoi all have what it takes to shock.
Only question is--in a crowded pack, do they have the room to start their sprint?
Robby Andrews better be THIS close to the front to best use his great kick!
Same goes for Ben Blankenship and Nick Willis!
And Centro!
5000 (12:57.82)
MR gets 10-90 odds!
And MoBot gets beat again---at least on MY predictions sheet!!
While Muktis Edris, Dejen Gebremeskel, Hagos Gebrhiwet, Tsegay Tuemay, Isaih Koech, Josh Cheptegei, and Albert Rop have solid kicks, and fast times, look for 41 year old Bernard Lagat to sneak into the Bronze position!
Also look for Mo Ahmed, Hassan Mead, Ali Kaya, and even David Torrence--of PERU!!--to do battle!
This could be the most exciting race...or the dullest!!
4X400 Relay (2:55.39)
With all the sub-44 guys around today, you'd think the WR would be broken!
So seeing this one-second-slower Meet Record remain intact---as I expect it will here--is kind of surprising!
Whatever the case regarding the records, the RACE should be good--unless the US makes it a runaway--literally and figuratively!!
The US should take this, especially with LaShawn Merritt on anchor!
Botswana and Trinidad are good, as is Borlee---er, Belgium--and Great Britain too!
Watch for the Bahamas and Jamaica, and maybe the Dominican Republic!
One things pretty certain---far less chance of a botched baton pass here!
Give the MR 20-80 odds!
Marathon (2:06:32)
Wake up, Galen Rupp fans---and haters!!
His time to romp---or get stomped--is upon us!!
His one Marathon was a 2:11 affair!
Decent rookie effort---for an American!
But when you're going against a guy--Eliud Kipchoge--whose SLOWEST 26.2 is about 5 or 6 minutes FASTER than your initial outing---you got problems---BIG problems!!
What if Eliud---who was no slouch as a Trackster!!--takes it out, just to TEST you?
He chugs through an easy---for HIM--1:02:30, say--then PICKS UP the pace for 2 or 3 miles!!
Do you go with him, and try to out-psych him---even if you DIE around the next bend??
Or do you trust that he'll go out in 1:05 instead---and make it a final-5K kick---where YOUR track speed can match, if not surpass, his??
Whatever the strategy, this should be a classic finish to a classic Games!!
For the record--pun NOT intended, but it works!!--my picks are Kipchoge, Rupp, then Stanley Biwott for the Bronze!!
Let the Games---heh heh--begin!!
See you in a few with my final Women's Preview!!
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