The "real" Olympic Games begin tomorrow!
Meaning the 10 days of Track and Field!
All this stuff with Katie Ledecky and Beach Volleyball was just a primer!
So here we are!
But who's who, and what's what, and which Olympic Games Meet Records might be broken?
Well, I'm about to tell you!
This detailed Preview will be divided into 4 parts.
I will alternate Men and Women.
Here are the events covered in each part:
1. This part has the Men's 20K Walk, DT, LJ, 10000, 400, 100, PV, 800, TJ, HJ, 110H--11 finals, dates from August 12 to the 16th!
2. The next part has the Women's 10000, SP, 100, Heptathlon, Marathon, TJ, HT, 3000SC, 400, DT, 1500--11 finals, dates from August 12th to the 16th!
3. This includes the last 5 days of Men's finals--the 3000SC, 400H, SP, Decathlon, 200, 50K Walk, HT, 4X100 Relay, JT, 1500, 5000, 4X400 Relay, Marathon--13 finals, dating from August 17th to the 21st.
4. Part 4 has the remainder of the Women's finals--LJ, 200, 100H, JT, 400H, 20K Walk, PV, 5000, 4X100 Relay, HJ, 800, 4X400 Relay--12 finals, dating from August 17th to the 20th! (The only T&F event on the 21st is the Men's Marathon--Check the complete schedule I provided a few days ago!)
I'll list the event, the Meet Record, then some names of athletes to watch!
I will also be brave (or stupid!), and give you MY personal predictions for the Medals!
20000 Walk (1:18:46)
In the absence of the Russians, China has some of the best Walkers.
But I settled on Miguel Lopez of Spain to win, with Zhen Wang 2nd.
For Bronze, look for Canada's young Ben Thorne to shock!
(Just a gut feeling I had!)
The Meet Record could fall, as there's several Walkers with PR's of under 80 minutes here!
I'll give it 60-40 odds.
Watch also for Ding Chen, Eiki Takahashi, Daisuke Matsunaga, Cai Zelin, Germany's Chris Linke, and another who might shock, Kenya's new National Record holder, Samuel Gathimba!
DT (229-3 or 69.89)
Let's keep it in the family!
I've predicted the Brothers Harting will take 2 of the medals, with Robert getting Gold, and Christoph the Bronze.
In the middle falls Piotr Malachowski!
The elder Harting is reliable, and experienced, so the blood and thunder of Rio won't faze him when the going gets rough!
Gerd Kanter is another Vet's Vet, so beware of his attack!
Jamaica's Fedrick Dacres is improving, and might surprise.
Ehsan Hadadi, Zoltan Kivago, and America's Mason Finley are others to watch!
I'll give 40-60 odds for the MR to go!
LJ (29-2.50 or 8.90)
He's had a long season as a Collegian, often doubling and tripling, but Jarrion Lawson is solid enough that I've picked him to take the Gold!
By my thinking (Not always advisable to follow! LOL), this will see Americans going 1-2, with Jeff Henderson beating out Greg Rutherford for the Silver!
The other American--Mike Hartfield--is also a threat, as are Rushwal Samuel, Fabrice LaPierre, and Michel Torneus.
The MR will be there when the 2020 Games begin!
ZERO chance!
10000 (27:01.17)
The other day, I watched a Flotrack video where they said that if Mo Farah wins double Gold again, he'd be the Greatest of All Time!
That made me cringe!
Since I favor fast times over medals, MoBot ranks (maybe!!) in the lower half of my Top 10 GOAT candidates list!!
So maybe it's my not liking Mo's racing methods that made me place him in 2nd, with Geoff Kamworor beating him, and Yigrem Demelash taking the Bronze!
I know, I know---crazy picks!
Anyway, watch also for Ali Kaya, Paul Tanui, Josh Cheptegei, Zersenay Tadese, Tamirat Tola, and Mo Ahmed.
Oh yeah, you might want to keep your eyes peeled for a skinny dude with big ears who has a totally whacked out Coach named Alberto---goes by the name of Galen Rupp or something like that!
You could knock me over with the proverbial feather if they dip under 27 here!
Odds are 30-70, and that's probably too generous!
400 (43.49)
One of THE best events on the whole program!
LaShawn Merritt beats Wayde Van Niekerk beats Kirani James is the way I see it, with the MR given 80-20 odds of being broken!!
With 19.74 half-lap speed, Merritt will be tough to beat--if he doesn't try to run 19.74 for the first 200!!
Left behind from the gun, VN will have a tough time trying to play catch-up!
It's going to be close, with all 3 given a chance to beat the MR--and on a perfect day, to even maybe challenge the World Record of 43.18!!
Heats and semis might be fast too, but probably NOT like in Beijing last year, when some guys ran in the 43's in the heats!!
One of those--Rusheen McDonald--will be here.
Watch for him, and David Verburg, Michael Cedeno, Liguelin Santos, Baboloki Thebe, Isaac Makwela, Abdelelah Haroun, and Bralon Taplin.
The Ancient One--Chris Brown--might get another Age 37 record, but that's all!
Martyn Rooney, Javon Francis, Jon Borlee, and Steven Gardiner also have solid chances to make it at least to the Semis--and maybe beyond!
100 (9.63)
20-80 odds for this STRONG Meet Record remaining as is!
But DA MAN is here--and healthy and happy and in dancing spirits.
(If you think I'm joking, watch the video of what happened after his press conference! It'll knock you out!!)
But Usain Bolt wants to break 19 seconds for double this distance, so might not be in top 100 speed mode!
That said, he DOES have enough wheels to win, and he will!
Justin Gatlin has been roundly attacked for his former drug use---by a young American female swimmer, no less!!--so look for his nerves to be a bit rattled!
I'm thus seeing Trayvon Bromell taking Silver, with Gatlin 3rd!
He hasn't really produced as a Pro yet, but beware of Andre De Grasse.
Also watch for Marvin Bracy, Nickel Ashmeade, James Dasaolu, Femi Ogunode, Mike Rodgers, Jimmy Vicaut, Akani Simbine, and a revived Yohan Blake!
Kim Collins may not be at his 9.93 best here, and he IS 40 years of age!!
PV (19-7 or 5.97)
If the weather is good, and he makes it to the 5.90 zone unscathed, Renaud Lavillenie COULD be the last man standing---in the pit AFTER breaking the World Record!!
But even if he can't scale the highest mountain, this MR is gonna be mincemeat when Renaud walks off the field!
Odds are 95 to 5---and that's probably too LOW!!
Sam Kendricks is the best American to come along in years!
He's strong, and seemingly reliable for high bars, so I see him taking Silver.
This is Brazil, so I'm giving home field advantage to Thiago Braz Da Silva for the Bronze!
Shawn Barber has had too erratic a year for me to trust him to medal!
But if anyone can come through, it's Mr Barber!
Pawel Wojciechowski is a solid threat, as are Konstadini Filippidis, Raphael Holzdeppe, and Piotr Lisek!
800 (1:40.91)
While I see David Rudisha retaining his Gold position from London, I doubt it will be that PERFECT RACE again that we saw 4 years ago!!
Rudisha has run some fast times this year, and should prevail, even if Boris Berian sticks to his Alysia Montano race plan of gunning the first lap--something in the 49's!
Berian is tough, and I pick him to Silver, with Ayanleh Souleiman getting the Bronze!
Souleiman has the necessary speed, and the strength of a Miler!
I'm probably wrong, but I think Clay Murphy will be in over his head here.
Ahead of him should be Adam Kszczot, Abe Rotich, Ferguson Rotich, Nijel Amos, Alfred Kipketer, Taoufik Makhloufi, and Amel Tuka!
Charles Jock can be good---sometimes---but he's fallen short too many times!
Odds are less than 5, and a bit more than zero, for the MR to fall!
In other words, don't bet your last dime on it!!
TJ (59-4.25, or 18.09)
There's talk of a World Record, or at least a mid-to-high 59 for Christian Taylor.
But he seems to be pretty much alone here, so finding WR motivation in that atmosphere can be difficult!
The X Factor is PPPP--Pedro Pablo etc Pichardo!
Hasn't competed this year, and was injured last year!
Yet he's a listed entry, and has given Taylor headaches in the past.
But I'm going to take that leap---pardon the punnery!--and go with the 4P guy for Silver!
Will Claye is Taylor's friend and former teammate, and I see him taking Bronze!
Beyond those 3, I don't see too much.
But beware of Bin Dong, Marian Oprea, Ben Compaere, Fabrizio Donato, Lazaro Martinez, Nelson Evora, and the other American, Chris Benard.
And if Pichardo should fail.....!!
The MR gets 60-40 odds!
HJ (7-10, or 2.39)
Too bad these Games weren't held in 2014--the Year of the HJ!--when I would have given the MR 80-20 or even 90-10 odds of getting cracked!
As it is, it gets just 30-70 odds this year!
Yet Mutaz Barshim has been edging towards his 2014 form, when jumps of 2.40 were commonplace!
And I give him the Gold, with Erik Kynard the shock Silver, over Bogdan Bondarenko's Bronze!
BB just hasn't found the needed consistency he ALSO had 2 years ago!
Once again, not much beyond the above trio, although the Bahamas Donald Thomas surprised earlier this year by tying his 9 year old PR!!
Andrei Protsenko, Robbie Grabarz, and Derek Drouin are others to watch.
110H (12.91)
There's several guys MIA in Rio--one (Sergey Shubenkov of Russia) NOT his fault!!
Without him as a SURE medalist, I'll give them instead to Orlando Ortega, Devon Allen, and Omar McLeod--in that order!
Allen could be the big question mark, as his PR is 13.03, not in the 12's where Ortega and McLeod reside!
Lucky for Allen, it's a diluted field!
Dimitri Bascou, Ronnie Ash, Pascal Martinot-Legarde, Jeff Porter, and maybe Dayron Robles could find themselves in the final, although I'm not certain of Robles's status!
He might not even be here, even though he's on the entry list!
The MR has, at best, a 30-70 chance of even being tied!!
Okay, friends, next up is the first part of the Women's Preview!
(See above!)
Probably in a couple of hours--maybe three!
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