Friday, May 27, 2016

My Prefontaine Classic Preview

In its 44th edition (It started in 1973, going by another name!), the Prefontaine Classic just seems to get better and better.
Of course, much depends on what this Olympian field of runners, jumpers, and throwers actually DO in their events, to determine the entire meet's place on the podium of G.E.M's (Greatest Ever Meets).
And in Eugene (where I lived for 11 years, attending many Pre meets), weather--specifically its winds--can affect the sprints and horizontal jumps in both positive and negative ways!
That said, following is Aaron K's Track and Field Record Book's Preview.

Events will be listed in the order of their starting times.
Included for each will be the time the event begins, the Meet Record, key names to watch, as well as some commentary. (All times are Pacific Time.)

Friday, May 27th

Hammer Throw-Men (6:55 p.m.) (271-2, or 82.06)
As with last year, the words "LOADED" or "CLASSIC" became monotonous, but deadly accurate!
Well, with Pawel Fajdek vs Krisztian Pars going head to head, either adjective works!
Fajdek is already the World Leader, and could threaten the Meet Record.
Pars is always dangerous.
Nick Miller is listed as an entry, but he just threw a PR of 252-4 in the NCAA "Regional", so would have to travel just a day after to get here!
Watch also for Gilshod Nazarov and Marcel Lomnicky.
The lone American, Kibwe Johnson, is here as window dressing only.

Long Jump-Women (8:11 p.m.) (23-11.75, or 7.31)
The trio of Americans--Brittney Reese, Janay DeLoach, and Tianna Bartoletta--will have to turn back Ivana Spanovic, Blessing Okagbare, Lorraine Ugen, and Shara Proctor, to make this an All-Star Spangled podium!
And that won't be easy, especially with Spanovic!
Both Okagbare & Bartoletta will be in later track races!
The MR is fairly safe, but with the explosively hit-or-miss Reese, not THAT safe!

Discus Throw-Women (8:15 p.m.) (227-5, or 69.33)
Perky is here!
aka Sandra Perkovic, who already has thrown close to 70 meters--as she often does!
She says she intends to throw long.
Believe her!
The Meet Record is on life support wherever Perky shows up!
Watch for Julia Fischer of Germany, who opened with a huge toss not long ago!
Whitley Ashley has been the best American of late.
Also beware of Nadine Muller and Jade Lally.

Shot Put-Men (8:18 p.m.) (73-6.25, or 22.41)
Joe Kovacs threw the iron ball over 74 feet in 2015.
But that was 2015.
The MR COULD go, but likely won't.
New Zealander Tom Walsh, Jamaican O'Dayne Richards, Poland's Tomasz Majewski, and Canada's Tim Nedow could surprise.
The top Americans--besides Kovacs--are Kurt Roberts, Ryan Crouser, and Jordan Clarke.
Reese Hoffa could better his recently set Age 38 record!

High School 400's-Women & Men (8:23 & 8:30 p.m) (No MR's!)
Last year, the HS Miles--especially the Women's--were pretty near THE best event of the entire meet!!
Why they chose to do the 400's is beyond me.
Especially when the best runners are NOT here!!
No Noah Lyles or Michael Norman--No Sydney McLaughlin!
But what we DO have is Sammy Watson--probably better in the 800!
One thing to keep in mind--if she can run a sub-52 (or even low 52's), that puts her 800 potential at SUB-2:00!!
For the Men, watch for Keshun Reed and Brian Herron.
If you remember, Herron was breaking Frosh Class records INdoors early on, before Tyrese Cooper came along to break them!
A sub-46 would be nice!

USATF High Performance 800-Women (8:37 p.m.) (1:56.72)
The MR is almost 100% safe, but the USA roster of entrants will more than make up for it!
It's Alysia Montano vs Laura Roesler--the front-runner vs the kicker.
Then you have Chanelle Price (aka Genzebe Dibaba's personal rabbit) vs Kate Grace, who is on FIRE!!
Throw in Molly Ludlow, Chrishuna Williams, McKayla Fricker & Charlene Lipsey for seasoning!

5000-Women (8:52 p.m.) (14:19.76)
Genzebe's MR from last year won't go--most likely!
But with the two V's--Viola Kibiwot & Vivian Cheruiyot here--and with a hot pace...??
Other Africans to watch include Mercy Cherono, Sally Kipyego, Helen Obiri, Alemitu Haroye, and Gelete Burka.
But it might be Molly Huddle who steals the show (but not the race!).
Her own American Record is in dire jeopardy!
Other Americans--all of whom could go sub-15:00 for the first time--include Marielle Hall, Nicole Tully, and Kim Conley.
Alexi Pappas, the soon-to-be Greek Olympian in the 10000 & star film-maker of the much-praised TrackTown, is also here!
Belaynesh Oljira, Betsy Saina, Buze Diriba, and Mimi Belete are others to key on!
Pace for the AR is about 70.5 per 400!

10000-Men (9:18.p.m.) (26:25.97)  (BTW, this event was switched with the Women's 5000, thus ending the Friday session!)
Apparently, Mo (Mr Run for Medals) Farah is here to run fast.
Define "fast", MoBot!
If he's talking the MR--or even an attempt on the WR--that's FAST!
If he just seeks to PR--around 26:45--not so fast!
Putting him to the task will be Zerzenay Tadese, Albert Rop, Augustine Choge, Imane Merga, Tarike Bekele, Joseph Bett, Ibrahim Jelan, and Emmanuel Bett.
An interesting trio of Americans are also here--German Fernandez, Eric Jenkins, and Chris Derrick.
Watch also for Stephen Sambu.

Saturday, May 28th

Triple Jump-Men (12:15 p.m.) (57-11.75, or 17.67)
Why isn't PPPP, aka Pablo Pedro etc Pichardo, here?
In fact, why hasn't he competed all season?
Injured?
That said, Christian Taylor and former STUD Teddy Tamgho ARE here!
If Taylor's on, the MR can be ERASED!!
With emphasis!!
But watch for Tamgho, who has been in Pichardo-Taylor territory before!!
Marquis Dendy and China's Bin Dong are also dangerous.
Will Claye and Omar Craddock are other key Americans.

Pole Vault-Men (12:18 p.m.) (19-10.25, or 6.05)
Renaud Lavillenie is ALWAYS a MR (and World Record!!) threat!
The Eugene weather could affect this event, however!
Sam Kendricks is by FAR the best American of this decade--and maybe soon, of All-Time!!
In a year (INdoors & OUTdoors) already filled with PR's he could be Renaud's main foe.
Shawn Barber has run hot and cold in 2016--mostly cold of late!
But he's capable of 6 meters or higher if he's "hot".
But don't ignore Pawel Wojcichowski, Konstantinos Filippidis, Piotr Lisek & China's Changriu Xue.

110H-Men (12:33 p.m.) (12.90)
Aries Merritt recently ran his best post-kidney transplant time--a 13.24!
But Omar McLeod, David Oliver, Pascal Martinot-Legarde, Hansle Parchment will contend.
The MR will almost certainly be the same in 2017.
Jarrett Eaton (No relation!) ran 13.25 recently.
Jon Cabral and Jeff Porter are scenery.

National Mile-Men (12:42 p.m.) (3:47.32, and 3:32.72 for 1500)
Two High Schoolers make this field as much fun to watch as the later Bowerman Mile--which ALSO has a HS'er in it!!  (See below!)
Michael Slagowski has broken 4:00 already.
Austin Tamagno hasn't, but he's foregoing the rest of his HS season to race against the Pro's, seeking that magic number!
Assisting in the pacing (errr, racing??) will be Jordan McNamara, Leo Manzano, Mac Fleet, and Pat Casey.
Watch also for Jonathan Sawe, Charlie Grice, and Dawit Wolde.
Oh Hell, forget those dudes!
Key on those "kids"!!

100-Women  (12:53 p.m.) (10.70)
The reason I'm so late getting this post out is because the organizers (IAAF, Nike) decided to hold off releasing the entry list until almost a whole DAY after all the other entry lists had been posted!!
But the wait is worth it!!
SAFP, aka Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce, with her cute face bedecked with always-colorful hairdo's, is HERE!!
Already perhaps the Greatest-ever female sprinter, she is THE one to watch here!
But don't blink, because you might miss Barbara Pierre, English Gardner, the aforementioned Tianna Bartoletta & Blessing Okagbare (See LJ preview above!), as well as the evergreen Carmelita Jeter, aka JET!!
But she'll have to be of the SuperSonic variety to beat Shelly Ann!!

400H-Men (1:03 p.m.) (47.91)
Only Nicholas Bett of Kenya seems capable of challenging the MR, but feel safe to bet your last $5 he won't!
One of the weaker events here, and overall, watch for the usual crew--Javier Culson, Mike Tinsley, Bershawn Jackson to possibly challenge Bett.
Jeff Gibson is also listed.

High Jump-Women (1:09 p.m.) (6-7.50, or 2.02)
This is Mommy's vs Daughter!
Okay, not literally, but thinking of their disparity in age, definitely!
Vashti Cunningham, the newbie Pro who just graduated High School, and who is the reigning INdoor World Champion, faces the same "ancient" rivals she faced in March just 100 miles north of here!
37 year old Ruth Beitia and 30 year old Kamila Licwinko will face Cunningham in a titanic Battle of the Ages!!
But do NOT overlook another "Mom"--literally, as she gave birth a year or 2 ago!--32 year old (but RED HOT recently!!) Chaunte Lowe!!
She seems to be BACKKK!! to her old American Record form!
Isabel Pooley, Alessia Trost, Lavern Spencer, and Marie-Laurence Jungfleisch are also here!
This is definitely one of the highlight events in this year's Pre Classic!!
BTW, the HS PRO record is in mortal danger, and maybe even the Meet Record!
The American Record too?
No--too much to ask in late May!

3000SC-Women (1:12 p.m.) (9:11.39)
Based on the pace, this MR could fall.
Emma Coburn is Steepling for the first time in the Olympic year, but ran a good 1500 recently!
Ashley Higginson, Leah O'Connor, and Shalaya Kipp are the other Americans.
But they'll all have to contend with  Ruth Jebet, Sofia Assefa, Virginia Nyambura, Purity Kirui, Hyvia Kiyang, and maybe German star Gesa Krause for MR honors!
If Coburn (or..?) runs 9:11.39 or faster, she will have broken her own AR of 9:11.42.
If they reach 2K in 6:15 or faster, the MR would be doable!

800-Men (1:26 p.m.) (1:43.63)
David Rudisha is NOT here!
That leaves Mohammed Aman, Nijel Amos, Adam Kszczot, Amal Tuha to duel the top American, Boris Berian!
Unless you've been in a cave recently, you probably know that nice little Nike PUBLICLY SERVED former McDonald's hamburger flipper Berian at the Hoka One One (an IRONIC act if ever there was one!!!) meet--at which Berian was there as OBSERVER ONLY!!!
Okay, breathing (somewhat) back to normal, let's just say I FULLY SUPPORT Boris in his "duel" with Nike!!
I hope he becomes Olympic Champion, then PUBLICLY displays HIS shoe brand in front of Nike's ugly face!!!

Javelin Throw-Men (277-8, or 84.64)
Thomas Rohler recently threw the spear over 286 feet!
Thus, the MR could fall!!
While Julius Yego and Keshorn Walcott are both here, their recent showings have been nowhere near their best.
The best American--and that's not saying much!--has been Cy Hostetler in 2016.
He's been out in 275 territory--feet, that is!

400-Men (1:35 p.m.) (43.92)
Kirani James vs LaShawn Merritt!
The story of this event SHOULD begin and end right there!
But there's 3 other sub-44 guys in this field--albeit ones who have run that fast rarely--and even shockingly so!
Abdelelah Haroun, Yousef Masrahi, Rusheen McDonald, Isaac Makwela.
Under or close to 44 flat, all!!
But it's James vs Merritt, and that's all, folks!!

5000-Men (1:43 p.m.) (12:56.98)
I've heard rumors the pace will be FAST!
If so, and if they CONTINUE to run fast AFTER the rabbit leaves, the MR will go down!
Ageless (as in 41 & a half years old!!) Bernard Lagat is here, probably as speed-work for his attempt to make the Rio 10K team!
So instead watch Tom Longisiwa, Hagos Gebrhiwet, Edwin Soi, Geoff Kamworor, Isiah Koech, Paul Tanui, Yomif Kejelcha, and well, you get the picture, a host of other Africans!!
BUT there's a few Americans who could make things a bit interesting!
Ben True, who seems ready to challenge the American Record, is one of them.
But Sam Chelanga and Hassan Mead--as well as Canadian Mo Ahmed--might challenge for North American superiority!!

200-Women (2:04 p.m.) (21.81)
Even more than the 100 (See above!), this could be THE Women's event of the meet---even of the YEAR--outside of the OG itself!!
Dafne Schippers!!!  (Recently ran 22.02!!)
Tori Bowie (Has 10.80 100 speed!)
Elaine Thompson (Finished 0.03 behind Schippers in Beijing's WC's!!)
Jenna Prandini (The new Pro, who might be ready for a HUGE breakthrough!)
Candyce McGrone, who ran 22.01 last year!
Add Teen HS Pro Kaylin Whitney, and Kim Duncan, and you have yourself an OLYMPIC field!!!
MR can fall!!
(If the Eugene winds stay calmer than usual during the race!!)

100-Men (2:13 p.m.) (9.80)
Three controversial fellows--for different reasons!--vs the New Kid On the Block!
Formerly banned for drugs Justin Gatlin and Tyson Gay are here, as is the Jamaican vet Asefa Powell.
They'll face the young Canadian--Andre De Grasse--whose best times were wind-aided!
But they were oh-so-FAST!!
If the wind Gods are WITH them, a SUB-9.80 is possible!
Ameer Webb, who might be better in the 200, will challenge, as will Femi Ogunode, Mike Rodgers, and China's Bingtian Su.

1500-Women (2:22 p.m.) (3:57.05)
While the World maybe focuses on the Africans--Faith Kipyegon, Dawit Seyaum, Axumawit Embaye, and Gudaf Tsegay, the US crowd will instead be watching their own set of studs!
We have the American Record holder--Shannon Rowbury.
We have the once-almost certain AR holder--Jenny Simpson.
We have 800 Bronze Medalist (in the Moscow WC!)--Brenda Martinez.
And we have Teenage Pro--Alexa Efraimson, who PR'ed in the 800 at the Hoka meet!!
But don't forget Treniere Moser, Canadian Sweetheart Sheila Reid, Laura Weightman, and Linden Hall!
If the pace is solid, the MR will be on soft sand!

100H-Women (2:33 p.m.) (12.45)
The Olympic final?
Not quite!
Comebacking (from a broken wrist!!) Sally Pearson isn't here.
Neither is Lolo Jones, who should be in the mix at the Trials, as always!
But that leaves a field that DOES have Sharika Nelvis, Nia Ali, Dawn Harper-Nelson, Jasmin Stowers, Brianna Rollins, Tiffany Porter, and Kendra Harrison!
(If the track were a dozen or so lanes, we could throw in Pearson, Jones, Queen Harrison and...!!!)
And Alina Talay ain't too slow either!

400-Women (2:42 p.m.) (49.34)
There's a Changing of the Guard in the works here!
The once-and-forever Queens--Allyson Felix and Sanya Richards-Ross--are either injured (Felix) or coming back from injury (SRR).
The Americans do have Fran McCorory here, as well as Ashley Spencer.
But they'll have to beat the Rising Stars of the event--Shaunae Miller and maybe Quanera Hayes!
Natasha Hastings is another American vet possibly on the downslope!
Stephanie McPherson and Shericka Jackson are also ones to watch.

Bowerman Mile-Men (2:51 p.m.) (3:47.32, and 3:32.72 in the 1500)
As with the earlier Mile (See above!), a High Schooler could be the most interesting figure here!
Drew Hunter, who shattered Alan Webb's 1500 & Mile HSR's INdoors (TWICE!!), will take on Webb's OUTdoor HSR's!!
But that would entail a drop of over 4 seconds under his INdoor PR's!
He'll have the Big Guns (as Webb did in 2001's Pre, in the name of Hicham El Guerrouj!!) to assist him!
But if the pace is on for sub-3:50 (as it was in 2001), he could find himself in some trouble.
Up front, you'll probably see Ayanleh Souleiman, Silas Kiplagat, Asbel Kiprop, Taoufik Makhloufi, Abdelaati Iguider, and Elijah Manangoi.
The challenging Americans (I don't include Hunter in this class--yet!!) should be Ben Blankenship and Evan Jager--who isn't JUST a fast Steeplechaser!!
Have you noticed I haven't mentioned Matthew Centrowitz, always a Hayward Field crowd favorite?
He's apparently resting a niggle!
Oh, and another name missing--from either the 5000 or 10000--is Galen Rupp, another NOP/Alberto Salazar-coached stud!
He's apparently in great shape, but will wait for the Trials to unload!!
(Not to mention NOP/Salazar people Jordan Hasay & Mary Cain--also MIA here!!)

Enjoy the meet!
USATF-TV will livestream the Friday session--but NOT for free, as they did last year!
NBC will have an hour's worth on Saturday!

Then, for ALL the details, come back to this blog a few hours after the Bowerman Mile ends!!







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