I've been promising these predictions for awhile, but noticed I didn't do them for last year until early January!
Can't remember my reasoning, but probably was because I wanted more info on who would be competing where (and in which events) before I said definitively this or that record could fall!
But with this year's INdoor season ending with the World Championships, and with the season already happening (See previous post!), I feel it's time to do this--now!
To that end, a brief "editorial" comment.
Jenn Suhr, who began her season with a PV of 15-9 last week (Again, see previous post!), has stated that she probably will NOT compete at the USATF meet, and thus also forego the WC!
This is a mistake!
This WC is in the United States!
For any top American to opt OUT of trying for the team is akin, IMO, to, say, Fabiana Murer opting OUT of trying for HER Brazil National team for Rio!!
Barring serious injury, pregnancy, or a drug ban, I see NO good excuse for missing the Trials for either the WIC or the OG in 2016!
In a year when Yelena Isinbayeva might be banned from competing, Suhr's decision becomes even more ridiculous--as she'd be a clear medal favorite!
But what makes this a decision I can't--and won't--condone is the fact she ALSO stated she WILL be competing in several meets up through mid-February!
If she were skipping the ENTIRE INdoor season would be one thing!
But for her to be active over a period of about 9 weeks (last week to the Boston meet, which she says will END her INdoor season!), and then to not go to Portland for the USATF and WC is an entirely different story!
(There's already several people who agree with me!)
Now for my INdoor Records predictions!
They will be in my 4 core groups--World, US, Collegiate, and HS, and will be separated by gender.
So let's begin!
WORLD--MEN
Mo Greene's 6.39 from 2001 will be the 60 WR another year!
But, if anyone can break it, look for new Pro's Trayvon Bromell or Andre De Grasse as the most likely!
Same goes for Frank Fredericks's 19.92 in the 200.
That one SHOULD go, but probably won't, as INdoor 200's are becoming rarer!
Kerron Clement's 44.57 has a solid chance to go!
That is, IF all those sub-44 guys from the Beijing WC race INdoors!
The 800, 1000, 1500, and 1 Mile will remain as is--1:42.67, 2:14.96, 3:31.18, 3:48.45--into 2017!
I'm not saying they CAN'T be broken.
Just saying they probably WON'T!!
(Even with several candidates with solid credentials available!)
Mo Farah has said he'll race ONCE this season--in the Glasgow 3000.
Will he remove Dan Komen's 7:24.90 from the Books?
He COULD!
IF he tries for it the same way he tried for the 2 Mile WR last year!
Speaking of which, I wish he (or others!) would take a stab at Mo's 8:03.40 in the Deuce!
The 5000--Ken Bekele's 12:49.60 from 2004--is a good WR, but with even OUTdoor sub-12:50's being rare recently, I can't see an INdoor sub-12:50 this year!
Forget Colin Jackson's 7.30 in the 60H--one of the BEST WR's in ANY event!!
The Vertical Jumps (HJ & PV) could both go, with the odds very close to 50-50!
While Renaud Lavillenie is probably the only serious candidate to break his own WR in the PV, the HJ has several, despite the weak results from Beijing--and most of 2015!
Carl Lewis's 28-10.25 will remain as is!
But Teddy Tamgho's TJ of 58.9.50 might not even be podium material on my DDD list at season's end!
Tamgho himself might even be one of the ones--along with Pablo Pichardo and Christian Taylor--to break it!
Randy Barnes's 74-4.25 in the SP is HUGE, but so is Joe Kovacs's talent!
Still, it's no better than a 50-50 shot---pun intended!
I can see Lance Deal's WT mark going down.
His 84-10.25 is great, but remember, we saw 2 new guys crossing the 80 foot divide in 2015.
Michael Lihrman and Chuk Enekwechi are good candidates for the honors!
Ashton Eaton has committed to competing in the USATF & WC, so his Heptathlon WR of 6645 is VERY likely to go!!
The past 2 years have seen the 4X800 and DMR records falling!
They--and the 4X400--could go!
But it comes down to WHO runs them!
UNITED STATES--MEN
As noted above, Bromell would be a strong pick to break the sprint WR's--if he competes INdoors!
Justin Gatlin would be too--but he's unlikely to compete INdoors.
So the 60 & 200 US records will remain!
LaShawn Merritt would be the most likely (among Americans!) to take down Clement's mark in the 400.
ALL of the middle distance events have relatively easy AR's!
The 1500 is probably the best candidate to go---with Matthew Centrowitz set to compete INdoors!
The AR is 3:33.34 by Bernard Lagat from 2005.
He also has the Mile mark--3:49.89--also from 2005.
Galen Rupp came close--1 second slower--a couple of years ago.
If Centro WANTS it--BOTH!--they can be erased!
With Galen Rupp set to race a Half Marathon this weekend (!!), and with RUMORS that he might race the OT Marathon in February (doubtful!), I can't see him doing much INdoors in 2016.
Thus his 3000 (7:30.16), 2 Mile (8:07.41), and 5000 (13:01.26) AR's should remain as they are!
Forget the 7.36 in the 60H--by Allen Johnson and Roger Kingdom!
Won't even be close!
Hollis Conway's 7:10.50 HJ could go--if Eric Kynard joins the other World elites in INdoor competitions!
But forget the 19-9 PV mark and Lewis's LJ mark!
(See the World remarks for AR chances in the TJ, SP, and WT.)
See my World comments for the Hept!
All 3 Relays (4X400, 4X800 & DMR) are vulnerable by US teams!
COLLEGIATE--MEN
With Bromell & De Grasse turning Professional, the Collegiate sprint ranks are considerably weaker than they were!
With Wallace Spearmon's CR of 20.10 being also the US record, I don't know of any College guys left capable of taking it down.
ALMOST the same goes for the 6.45 in the 60.
I'd give that one a 35-65 odds--in other words, unlikely, but possible!
Clement's WR and US record is also the CR!
2017 will begin with his mark remaining as the CR!
The 1000 CR (2:18.55 in 2014) is still pretty weak!
Any guy who can run at least 1:46+ or faster is a candidate!
And with the 1K being a Collegiate favorite, I'll predict it will go!
All of the other distance events--the 1500 & Mile, the 3000 and 5000--are dependent on whether Ed Cheserek RACES them (not JOGS them!!)--and whether anyone else have the BALLS to challenge him!!
The CR's are 3:37.25, 3:52.88, 7:38.59, and 13:08.28.
Omar McLeod's 7.45 CR in the 60H is fairly safe--because Mr McLeod is now a Pro!
The lure of the Pro world took another Collegiate elite off the boards in the PV--he being Shawn Barber!
So forget Barber's PV record from going down!
Same goes for all the other jumps--the HJ (7-9.25), LJ (28-2.25), and TJ (57-5)!
Ryan Whiting's 71-3.50 in the SP can go, but with Ryan Crouser graduated, it's doubtful.
With Enekwechi and Rudy Winkler still competing Collegiately, Lihrman's WT mark is a possibility to fall!
Forget Eaton's 6499 in the Heptathlon.
I can see someone--or someoneS--getting a score of 6200--or even low-6300--but 6499 is off the table!
Watch the meets at Penn State to see if the 4X200 CR falls!
It's now 1:24.70.
The 4X400 (3:02.86) can go, as could both distance Relays--the 4X800 (7:17.45) and DMR (9:25.97).
Of course, as with ALL races run on INdoor ovals, only marks made on tracks measuring 200 meters are eligible for records!!
HIGH SCHOOL--MEN
It's both good and bad news that most HSR's happen at the New Balance INdoor Nationals meet---which happens the 2nd week of March!
I wish there were other SUPER elite HS meets scattered throughout the season!
But, aside from "Dream" Miles at the Millrose meet, the INdoor HS season finds only scattered meets with high quality fields strong enough to produce marks of HSR quality!
Nonetheless, even if we have to wait another three-plus months, we should see the following predictions coming to fruition sometime in 2016.
Noah Lyles isn't going the Pro route--as he's already signed on to compete at Florida starting in 2017.
So put him on your short list to break the 60 (6.57) and 200 (20.69) HSR's--especially the latter!
He could DESTROY that one!!
Watch for Grant Holloway to be a possible challenger, especially in the 60.
The 300 (33.05) and 400 (45.92) HSR's are tough, but last year saw a couple of guys run solid 300's, with Lyle's brother Josephus being a PRIME challenger for both!
(If the latter tries the 600, look for Strymar Livingston's 600 mark of 1:17.58 going down too!)
With Drew Hunter in the mix, ANY distance he runs will see either a HSR being set, or at worst, a Top 10 mark!
And yes, that DOES include Alan Webb's near-legendary 3:43.27 (1500) and 3:59.86 (Mile) HSR's, both dating from 2001.
But he could ALSO get Ed Cheserek's (!!) HSR's too--the 3000 & 2 Mile (8:05.46 & 8:39.15) and his 5000 mark of 13:57.04.
Hunter seems THAT good!!
As always, however, much is dependent on who runs at NBIN!
Mr Holloway also has 60H talents!
Both the 39 inch (7.57) and 42 inch (7.85) HSR's could fall!
(Unless too many of Grant's hurdles do!! LOL)
The HJ (7-5.25), SP (77-2.50), and WT (93-3.25) HSR's will still be there in 2017!
But look for Ja Mari Ward to challenge both Horizontal Jump records--26-6.50 in the LJ, and 52-7.50 in the TJ.
Look for 10th Grader Mondo Duplantis to vie for the PV record of 17-11.25.
But with the HS Vault ranks losing the likes of Paulo Benavides, Tommy Dial, and Deakin Volz, I would still look for others to rise up (literally!! LOL) to challenge Duplantis!
I'd give the odds of an 18 footer happening as BETTER than 50-50! Maybe even 75-25!
Gunnar Nixon's Pentathlon HSR of 4307 will remain!
And, as ever, predicting HSR's for the Relays is a fools errand!
But I would hope that there's a team somewhere who can bring the 4X1Mile mark under 17 minutes!!
It's now 17:07.17.
The Women's predictions will be posted in a few hours!
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