In this post, I will cover all 4 groups--World, US, Collegiate, and HS.
There's a lot to cover, so I'll begin with the Men.
World-Men
While I believe Justin Gatlin will compete INdoors, I don't think he can go faster than Mo Greene's 6.39 in the 60.
The Europeans will have their INdoor Championships, but I also don't see any Euros as being that fast!
Same goes for the 200, although that 19.92 is a somewhat easier target.
I've said it before, and I'll repeat it.
If LaShawn Merritt or Kirani James took a SERIOUS shot at the 44.57 WR, it would be GONE!!
Of the Middle Distance events (600,800, 1000, 1500, 1 Mile, 2000), I'd call the 600 and 1000 the easiest targets.
The 1000 needs "just" an 800 in 1:45 with another lap in 29.95!
The Distance events (3000, 2 Mile, 5000) already have WR attempt promises!
Galen Rupp will target K Bekele's 8:04.35 Two Mile on January 31st.
He "almost" made it last year at BU, but after about 2600 meters, fell off the needed pace!
I think he can do it this year!
The INdoor 3000 and 5000 WR's are too tough!
It would take the top 2 or 3 guys making a SERIOUS attempt on those records to get them!
Colin Jackson's 7.30 60H WR is safe!
With Renaud Lavillenie set for the Karlsruhe meet (See my previous post!), anything can happen, even a WR.
And with the European Championship on the calendar, I'm assuming Karlsruhe will not be the only meet where Lavillenie will compete!
The HJ WR is "only" 7-11.50.
Will Barshim, Bondarenko and Company attack it?
If they do, I'd give Sotomayor's record an 80% chance of falling!
The LJ WR is safe.
But the TJ WR of 58-9.50 could go, with Teddy Tamgho and Will Claye in the mix.
Both throwing events (SP, WT) WR's are going to still be there when 2015 is done!
I said it before, but if Ashton Eaton tries for his own record of 6645 in the Hept, he can break it.
The DMR time of 9:25.97 is getting a major attack from the US and Kenya at the Armory meet. (See my previous post!).
It would take a simple combo of 2:52, 48, 1:50, and 3:55 to get it.
And you can juggle those numbers in several ways, and still break the record!
It's GONE!
If anyone goes after the 4X800 record of 7:13.11, that mark can go down too.
It's "just" four 1:48.27's!!
The 4X400 is safe.
US-Men
The 60 is safe. (See above.)
The 200 AR of 20.10 is possible, but not likely.
I'd give it about 30% chance.
See above for my 400 prediction!
Johnny Gray's 1:45.00 in the 800 COULD go, but probably won't, although Duane Solomon seems ready for a big year.
Remember that last year, Nick Symmonds said HE was targeting the AR (AND the 1000 mark too!).
Will he do it this year?
I don't see it, with all his extra-curricular activities perhaps messing up his training routine!
The 600 mark of 1:15.61 could go, as Eric Sowinski is entered in a BIG race. (Don't have the details here, but it includes some Top-rated Americans!)
I think the 1500, 1 Mile, and 2000 AR's are safe.
That is, unless Rupp or Will Leer go for them!
As noted above, Rupp is aiming for the WORLD Record in the 2 Mile.
But I don't see the 3000 AR going down in that race too!
And as far as I know, there's no NOP tries for the 5K mark this year!
The 60H record is safe.
If Eric Kynard is in shape, Hollis Conway's 7-10.50 HJ record could go, or at least be tied!
The LJ AR won't be broken.
See above for my take on the TJ mark!
Despite all the attention paid the PV (See my post on that!), I just don't see Jeff Hartwig's 19-9 in any danger this year.
See above for my Throws predictions.
Same for the Heptathlon!
Also for the Relays!
Collegiate-Men
With Trayvon Bromell and Trentavis Friday possibly competing, both Sprint events (60 and 200) could fall!
The CR's are 6.45 and 20.10.
They're tough--even for those 2--but doable.
I'd give the 60 a 55% chance of going, while the 200 gets a 70% chance!
The 400 and 800 are safe.
But the 600, being VERY popular Collegiately in recent years, could fall.
Same goes for the 1000.
That 2:18.55 would take a 1:48.5 with a final lap in 30.00 to break it!
Not certain, but I'm guessing Ed Cheserek will race mostly to win, not to break records.
That said, Ches is Ches!
The 1500, 1 Mile, 3000, and 5000 CR's are ALL in danger.... if Cheserek chooses to ATTACK the records!
Even without the injured Devon Allen, the Collegiate short hurdles scene is strong!
The CR of 7.47 could go.
The HJ, LJ, and TJ CR's can go to sleep for another year free of nightmares of someone crushing them to death!
The PV Collegiate Record has ALREADY been broken!!
Can it fall again?
YES!!
And it could be either Shawn Barber or Sam Kendricks doing the honors!
Ryan Whiting's SP mark is tough, but Ryan Crouser could get it.
The 79-7.50 WT CR is a "softie".
I see at least one 80 footer on the horizen!
And maybe a FEW!!
Eaton's 6499 Hept is probably safe, though the Collegiate Multi's scene is fairly strong!
(But probably not THAT strong!)
As I've said before, Relays records are hard to predict, not knowing a team's make-up.
Also messing things up is the fact that many fast relays are spoiled by their being run on Oversize Tracks!
But I could see the DMR going down, as well as the 4X400.
Oh Hell, how about ALL of them!!
(Only half-kidding!)
HS-Men
It's too bad that most of the record-breaking on the High School level doesn't happen until the END of the season--at the NBIN meet.
But this season appears to be off to an early start, as the 1st reportable mark (Ryen Frazier's mile) came VERY early---in November!!
That said, let's see what's what with the Men HSers!
Casey Combest's 60 HSR is safe.
But Noah Lyles could get the 200 mark of 20.69.
He's just an 11th grader!
The 400 HSR won't fall.
The 600 HSR of 1:17.58 has gotten an early threat from Richard Rose, who has already run 1:18.40!
With Grant Fisher in the mix, the 1000 mark could be in danger, as well as Alan Webb's iconic 1500 and 1 Mile HSR's of 3:43.27 and 3:59.86.
And if Fisher (or several other strong contenders!) goes after them, the 3000 and 2 mile HSR's of Ed Cheserek could fall too!
(If Fisher runs 3:43.0 and 3:59.0, and given a 15 second per half slowdown rate, he could run 7:56 and 8:28. Even a 20 second slowdown rate would give him times of 8:06---VERY close to the HSR!--and 8:38!)
As with the Women, the Men's 5000 INdoor HSR is relatively weak!
Yes, even though it was set by King Ches!!
But....13:57.04 is still a VERY good record, especially for INdoors!
If "they" attack it--presumably at NBIN--it could go.
Both the 39 inch (7.57) and 42 inch (7.85) 60H HSR's are probably safe.
I'd give them slightly less than 50% chance of going down!
The HJ record of 7-5.25 is safe....I think!
So are the LJ and TJ marks!
Although the LJ SEEMS to be on a bit of an upward spiral!
Devin King's PV mark is NOT safe!
Not with Brandon Bray and Pauli Benavides ALREADY over 17-3!!
Forget about seeing the SP or WT records falling any time soon!
The Pentathlon HSR is Gunnar Nixon's 4307.
Can it fall?
The HS Multis are tough to predict, as newcomers pop up out of nowhere more frequently than in other events.
That said, I see Nixon's mark remaining on the books after this season is over!
As in the other groups, HSR's in the Relays are NEVER completely safe!
I can't wait to see how many---or IF any!--- go down!
Wanting to give equal room to the women, I'm going to do them in a separate post!!
(That will make THREE posts in one day!! LOL)
See you all soon!
Oh, and thank you for making my PV post my most viewed post ever!!
No comments:
Post a Comment