2015 INdoor Records Predictions-Women

And now for the Women!

World-Women
This looks to be an exciting year in the WR's department, but NOT in the 60 or 200!
Irina Privalova's 6.92 and Merlene Ottey's 21.87,both now 22 years old, are safe.
That said (and as I've said before), if an in-shape SAFP competes INdoors, she could challenge the 60 mark!

Also as noted before, I think the Women's WR in the 400 isn't that great!
I just don't see it as that difficult to run a couple of 24.8 laps!!
With the European Championships happening this year, it could go.
Francena McCorory remains a threat!

The 600 WR of 1:23.44 was "almost" broken by Alysia Montano in 2013.
She's back from giving birth, and might be ready to challenge it.
But take any strong 400 runner or fast 800 woman, and you've got the makings of a sub-1:23 as a possibility!

The 800 WR is safe.
However, if the "right" people run it, and they get the "right" pace, Maria Mutola's 1000 mark of 2:30.94 could fall.
Figure an 800 in 1:59, then another 200 in 31.90!

Triple WR holder Genzebe Dibaba is coming back for more!!
This year, she's vowed to go after the 1 Mile and 5000 records, to go with her 1500, 3000, and 2 Mile WR's from last year!
As I've said before, if she'd tacked on another 109 meters to that 3:55, her Mile time would've been around 4:11 or 4:12!
The WR is "just" 4:17.14.
Goodbye!

Same for the 5000.
Dibaba would need a 3000 in just under 8:39, then hold the same pace, to get the WR.
If she's in 2014's INdoor shape, she could challenge the OUTdoor best of 14:11.15.
(That would take a 3000 in 8:30, then the same pace over the last 2000, for a time of 14:10!)

BTW, if she WERE to run a 14:10, she would come within about 3 seconds of breaking her 2 Mile WR enroute!!

As noted in an earlier post, Meseret Defar is going to run the Boston 2000.
That puts the WR of 5:30.53 in mortal danger!

Susan Kallur's 60H WR is still on the books, but maybe not for long.
For one thing, SHE (Kallur) is back!
And what will the top Americans do here?
I'd give this mark maybe a 15% chance of surviving!

The HJ is a bit unpredictable, what with the problems in the Russian community, and the banning of Inika McPherson.
Also, the Women's side just isn't as strong here as the Men's.
Thus, this WR is safe.

Heike Drechsler's WR is VERY safe, but the TJ WR isn't!
With Caterine Ibarguen going 50-3 OUTdoors last year, the WR of 50-4.75 is heavily threatened!

Jenn Suhr could threaten her own WR in the PV.
Isinbayeva is taking the year off--she says!!--so look for Fabiana Murer and Yarisley Silva to be Suhr's main opponents.
But Suhr would have to improve from 2014 by about a full foot!!

You can bronze the WR in the SP, bury it, and tell it to R.I.P!!

While the WT record is a good one, and mostly Americans compete in the event, it's still targetable for the current crop of US Hammer Throwers!

Can anyone amass 5000 points in the Pentathlon?
Yes!
But I just don't see it happening this year!

The "WR" in the DMR--which is also the Collegiate Record!--WILL fall!
And it will happen by an American team, anchored by Brenda Martinez!
(See my earlier post where I mention that!)
In fact, the record COULD fall by as much as 20 seconds!!

Russia's WR in the 4X800 (8:06.24) is very doable.
The only barrier to it falling is not having anybody trying for it!

With the Euros happening, I could see Great Britain taking down Russia's WR (3:23.37) in the 4X400.

US-Women
The 6.95 60's of Gail Devers and Marion Jones are probably safe, with "probably" the operative word here.
I'd give it only a 15% chance of falling!
However, the 200 AR of 22.18 is doable.
But again, not too probable.
I'd give this one a somewhat better 30% chance of going down.

The AR in the 400 is "only" 50.46.
Francena??
Allyson??
SRR??
Or Ms Phyllis Francis herself??

I think the 800 mark is safe, even though the US has a boatload of middle distance women capable of breaking it!
Also, Chanelle Price just had foot surgery.

The 1000 is in danger of falling!
If Brenda Martinez or Mary Cain get in the same race, and get solid pacing, it can fall.
(Probably to Brenda!)
It's NOT a difficult record, even though it's now 11 years old!
It would take an 800 in 2:01, with another 200 in 33!

Except for the fact she's probably not going to race a 1500 INdoors, Jenny Simpson would be a strong candidate to take down the 1500 AR of 3:59.98.
As would a few others!!
And you can add the 1 Mile mark to that list!
There's probably 5-8 American Women with that kind of talent and potential!
They have a Renaissance going, with NO sign it's slowing down!!

Emma Coburn (See an earlier post!) is the only one now entered in the 2000 at Boston, and I just don't think she has the speed to break the 2000 AR.
(Prove me wrong, Emma!)
But if someone else takes a shot, it could fall.

Unless Simpson or Shannon Rowbury (or...??) tries for it, the 3000 AR is safe.
However, THIS year, the AR in the Two Mile is GONE!
I just can't see Simpson mis-counting laps TWICE!!
And as I've said before, Cain could get it at the Armory meet...IF Salazar "allows" her to!!

I haven't heard of anybody going after the 5000 mark, so unless someone does, it's safe.

I think Lolo's 60H AR is going to fall this year.
I'll give it an 80% shot!

The HJ and LJ records are safe.
UNLESS Ms Lowe and Ms Barrett are in 2012 shape!
Or Ms Bartoletta in the LJ.

See my World remarks about Jenn Suhr.

The AR's in the Throws are probably safe.
But Michelle Carter is a threat to the SP mark.

Can the Pent record of 4805 be topped....by a Collegian?
Watch out for Kendell Williams!

See my World predictions for what I said about the DMR.
With no World indoor Champs, the 4X400 record is safe.

Collegiate-Women
The INdoor sprint CR's (7.09, 22.40, and 50.46) are relatively weak when compared to their OUTdoor equivalents.
So all 3 COULD go this year.
But WILL they?
I'd give all 3 about the same 60% chance of being broken!

I think the 600 mark could go.
The 800 SHOULD have gone last year, when Laura Roesler was still in school.
But it didn't!
And probably won't this year either!

However, if that VERY soft 1000 CR doesn't fall, all blame should go to those athletes CAPABLE of breaking it--and there are SEVERAL!!--who don't take a crack at it---on a 200 meter track!

Abbey D'Agostino's 4:09.77 1500 mark will fall!
Again, there are several candidates, not the least being Super Frosh Elise Cranny!
I hope it falls enroute to that person ALSO breaking the 1 Mile record, although the Mile is tougher than the 1500, though not by much!

Simpson's 3000 CR of 8:42.03 will probably stay, as the 3K isn't run that often by Collegians anymore--except on Seattle's OT!!

The 5000 CR was threatened---in December!!--by 2 women!
And the list of women who are talented enough to break it is VERY long!!
But they're Collegians, and Collegians mainly run for team points, not for time--early December races being the exception!

While Brianna Rollins's OUTdoor CR of 12.39 in the 100H is safe, her INdoor 60H is NOT!

No one is ready to challenge the HJ record.
The LJ (22-8) and TJ (46-9) CR's are fairly safe too.
Again, prove me wrong, ladies!

With the PV SUPER strong, I predict Kaitlin Petrillose's 15-1 might not even make the podium by season's end--unless Ms Petrillose leads the charge herself!
The list is almost endless of those who could reach 15 feet this year!

Unless Raven Saunders improves ANOTHER 14 feet this year, the SP record will stand!
(And I'm only half-joking!  That girl has talent...AND enthusiasm unseen on the SP front for many years!)

Pretty sure the WT record will stay at 83-10.25!

Ms Williams (See earlier remark!) could break her own Pentathlon CR.
And unless she gets injured, I think she will!

Again, all the Relay records COULD fall, but most of them probably won't!

HS-Women
Here too, the BIG meet comes at season's end--the NBIN.
And it's very likely that numerous HSR's will fall there!
But with the first big mark of the season---for ANY of the 4 groups!!--being Ryen Frazier's Mile from November, I see a BIG year for HS Women!

Will Kaylin Whitney compete INdoors?
Will she be in 2014 summer shape?
If she is, look for the 60 (7.19) and 200 (22.97) HSR's going down!
If she doesn't get them, no one will!

While McCorory's 51.93 is a good record, it's also doable!
And believe it or not, a SOPH could be the one to do it!
Her name is Sydney McLaughlin.
She began this year with a 38.52 PR in the 300, adding a 55H win to the mix!

With the best Middle Distance runner having turned Pro, I'm pretty sure the HSR's---the "amateur" HSR's, that is!--of the 2 Mary's (Decker and Cain) will remain theirs.
Alexa Efraimson is a Senior in Camas WA HS now, but she, like Cain, is a Professional now!
And i just don't think the ones who remain amateurs---while VERY talented!---are capable of running 2:01.8 or 4:11.72 and 4:28.25!!

And while they're a bit "softer", I'd add Cain's HSR's of 9:04.51 and 9:38.68 to that list!

But the 5000 is a different story!
That record, broken in each of the last 3 editions of the NBIN (by Erin Finn in 2012, Wesley Frazier in 2013, and by Tessa Barrett in 2014), is about 99.9% certain of not only being broken, but being DESTROYED!!
I see the possibility of 3 or 4 girls going under 16:00---given everything going their way!

With Dior Hall graduated, her 60H record is safe!

Will Vashti Cunningham compete INdoors in the HJ?
If so, Lisa Bernhagen's now-31 year old HSR can fall.
While I think there might be a few 6 footers this year, I see only Cunningham capable of getting the record.

Both of the horizontal jumps records will stay on the books!
Although the LJ mark of 21-7.50 is far easier a target than the TJ mark, especially with Keturah Orji now a Collegian.

As i noted in a recent post, Desiree Freier's HSR is now back at 14-2.75, as her 14-6 has been ruled illegal.
But fear not!
The Weeks twins, Tori and Lexi, BOTH vaulted 14-0.50 this past weekend!
And as in the other groups, the PV is loaded with young talent!
Hate to say it, Ms Freier, but your record is going down!!
And it could very well happen BEFORE the NBIN meet!

The SP saw ALL of 2014's 50 footers graduate!
So unless there's another Raven Saunders out-of-nowhere explosion on the horizen, the SP record is safe!

The WT is still relatively new for HS Women!
Yet the HSR of 68-2.50 by Shelbi Ashe is strong!
Ms Ashe was one of HS's superstars just a few short years ago!
So I'd give it only a 40% chance of falling!

The HS Multis scene is unpredictable, as it is for the Men.
And with no likely future-Kendell Williams in the mix, I see her HSR staying intact!

Like with the Collegians, it's hard to predict Relay records!
Let's just say they're ALL vulnerable....at least!

And that's a wrap, folks!
THREE posts in  one day!
I'm outta here!!