They said it was impossible.
But I knew better!
Given the best weather, the strongest field, the one person who fearlessly sets the pace (and NOT a rabbit!!), and VOILA!, you have the 10000 Meters Run that blew apart the Record Book, and blew people's minds--even if you were not a fan of distance races!
I had planned a report later today covering ALL the events (Q rounds, Heats, Semis, Finals) from the August 12th schedule, plus some news from today's morning session!
Sometimes plans go awry.
To fully detail what took place in the space of less than one-half hour yesterday in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil requires I give a full post to that one race!
There are no shortcuts--to explaining what happened, or to SHATTER an "impossible" World Record!!
First, the race.
NBC showed the women--more than 30 of them--waiting to enter the track to race the most important 25 laps of their life!
I saw all the "players"--including Molly Huddle (She was last to leave the tunnel!), and the anticipation expanded for what was to come.
They did their strides--maybe to dispel the nervousness, maybe to feel the heat.
They toed the lines--a "waterfall" start--and the gun went off.
They did the 1st 400 in 72--fast, but nothing outrageous.
At 1000, the time was 3:01--about a 30:15 pace--again, nothing "nutty"--just strong enough to weed out the wannabes.
But Alice Aprot (She has another last name, but I've seen her referred to as Aprot, so I'll stick to that! Besides, it makes me think of apricots, one of my fave fruits!! LOL) had other ideas.
So taking the lead, she (and a pack of 8 or 9) came through 2000 in 5:55.
They'd run a 2:54, which if kept up, would bring them in well under 30 minutes!
But no distance race in Championship settings EVER goes out at this kind of pace!
Well, rarely!
After all, Tirunesh Dibaba held the Olympic Record of 29:54.66--not exactly crawling!
That was 8 years ago--in Beijing--when the "Baby Faced Destroyer" was at the top of her game.
Now she was 30 years old, and hadn't run much the past year or 2.
Almaz Ayana had.
In fact, despite Tiru's presence, Ayana was heavily favored.
She had blitzed an 8:19 final 3000 in the Beijing 5000 last summer.
She had two of the fastest 5000's ever run.
She'd run 30:07 in her FIRST EVER track 10000!!!
And she was following Aprot.
So was Tiru, but back 5 meters in 4th.
Molly Huddle was hanging onto the pack's rear for all she had--as they were on solid sub-15 5K pace.
In fact, they DID come through 5000 in just under 14:47 (14:46.7), with Huddle now fallen off the back, yet still going through in 14:55, just 13 seconds slower than her American Record!
And then MADNESS attacked this hardy group of women--they INCREASED the pace!!
Aprot let off the gas, stepping back into mid-lead pack, with Ayana taking over, hitting a couple of 66's or 67's (after the opening series of low 70's!!).
What was she DOING??
And how the Hell were there still several women within spitting distance--all running at what was fast becoming World Record-threatening pace??
This lethal drive by Almaz finally started dropping her foes.
Vivian Cheruiyot, however, tried staying as close as she could.
Dibaba had fallen back to 5th, but had 4th--and even 3rd---in sight.
Huddle had disappeared--but not by much---only in reference to the insanity ahead of her!!
She was still moving at a pace that would threaten Shalane Flanagan's American Record---if she didn't completely fall apart.
Runners were being lapped--several more than once!!
Great runners--Emily Infeld, Alexi Pappas, Jo Pavey, Dominique Scott--all of whom would finish in good & honorable times!
Ayana sped through 8000 meters in 23:22.
The announcers were going mad, trying to behold what was happening before their eyes!
In 1993, a 20 year old Chinese woman named Wang Junxia--supposedly stoked to the gills on some sort of turtle (!!!) concoction of her coach--destroyed all historic concepts of what women were capable of.
Her 29:31.78 was so totally outrageous, that Track and Field News decided it was indeed contrived, and banned those times from their lists!
I didn't.
Unless she (and the other Chinese women) tested positive for a banned substance, I would retain those times on my record lists!
At 9000, Ayana's time showed 26:17.
She was holding to her steady 2:55 per K clip.
Cheruiyot was 80 meters behind, but speeding up.
Tirunesh wanted the Bronze, and attacked the two closest to her, finally passing into Medal position.
She was looking like the Tiru of old--but was too far back to challenge either Cheruiyot or Ayana.
For the entire last lap, Ayana was sprinting, passing runner after runner---always on their outside, thus running most of that lap in the 2nd lane!!!
The crowd was utterly stupefied, and on their feet.
You couldn't hear yourself breathe!
In fact, what was taking place left you breathless!
I was at home CRYING!!
I was crying because of the magnificence of what I was seeing.
I cried because I knew that what I'd been saying all these decades was coming true---that "impossible" records COULD be broken---if only a runner--or runnerS---were fearless and determined and totally insane with one goal in mind---take that record DOWN!!
Following are the numbers.
You will NOT believe how TOTAL the rewrite of my (and everyone's!!) Record Book became from just 30 minutes (LESS & a bit more!!) of masterful track racing!!
Runner by runner.
Almaz Ayana
29:17.45 WORLD Record
Olympic Games MEET Record
Ethiopia NATIONAL Record
AGE 24 Record
Moves from 8th All-Time World to 1st
Moves from 4th to 1st on my COMBINED EVENTS 3000-5000-10000 list.
(8:22.22, 14:12.59, 29:17.45 adds to 51:52.26.)
Moves from 3rd to 1st on my COMBINED EVENTS 5000-10000 list
(14:12.59, 29:17.45) adds to 43:30.04)
Her race splits were 14:46 and 14:31.
Yes, she NEGATIVE SPLIT the race!!!
Vivian Cheruiyot
29:32.53
Best 2nd PLACE ever!
Kenya NATIONAL Record
AGE 32 Record
3rd All-Time World
2nd on COMBINED EVENTS 3000, 5000, 10000 list
(8:28.66, 14:20.87, 29:32.53 adds to 52:22.06)
2nd on COMBINED EVENTS 5000, 10000 list
(14:20.87, 29:32.53 adds to 43:53.40)
Tirunesh Dibaba
29:42.56
PR by 12.10 seconds, but FALLS from 3rd All Time World to 4th!!
Best-ever 3rd PLACE mark
AGE 30 Record
2nd A-T COMBINED EVENTS 3000, 5000, 10000 list
(8:29.55, 14:11.15, 29:42.56 adds to 52:23.26)
3rd A-T COMBINED EVENTS 5000, 10000 list
(14:11.15, 29:42.56 adds to 43:53.71)
Alice Aprot
29:53.51
AGE 22 Record
Best 4th PLACE mark
5th All-Time World
Betsy Saina
30:07.78
Best 5th PLACE record
13th All-Time World
11th A-T COMBINED EVENTS 5000, 10000 list
(14:39.49, 30:07.78 adds to 44:47.27)
Molly Huddle
30:13.17
AMERICAN RECORD!!
AGE 31 Record
Best 6th PLACE mark
17th All-Time World
Moves from 2nd All-Time US to 1st!
Moves from 2nd to 1st on US COMBINED EVENTS 3000, 5000, 10000 list
(8:42.99, 14:42.64, 30:13.17 adds to 53:38.80)
Moves from 2nd to 1st on US COMBINED EVENTS 5000, 10000 list
(14:42.64, 30:13.17 adds to 44:55.81
Yasmin Can
30:26.41
Best 7th PLACE mark
AGE 19 Record (Born December 11, 1996!)
Gelete Burka
30:26.66
Best 8th PLACE mark
And there's MORE!!
Here's the rest!
Emily Infeld ran a PR of 31:26.94 in 11th place!
She moves from 24th A-T US to 14th!
Sarah Lahti's 31:28.43 is the new National Record of Sweden!
Diane Nukuri finished 13th in 31:28.69.
That's the National Record of Burundi!
Jo Pavey--42 years old (She'll be 43 in September!!), finished 15th in 31:33.44--just 2.26 seconds from the Age 40 & Over record!!
Alexi Pappas, the American turned Greek, ended in 17th with her PR (and new National Record of Greece!) of 31:36.16!
Darya Maslova's 31:36.90 is Kirghizstan's new National Record!!
Dominique Scott--newly graduated into Pro-dom from the University of Arkansas--finished in 21st with her PR of 31:51.47.
While a few women were kicked OFF my World DDD list, the most prominent of them was Sally Kipyego, whose mark dated from 2012!
If you have access to NBC (I do, via Xfinity/Comcast!), please take 30 minutes of your time to watch the COMPLETE video of this historic and mind-numbing race!!
If you have access, go to the complete Day One livestream, and scroll along to about 1:50 (one hour 50 minutes) into that program.
You'll come to the race I just described!
You won't regret the time spent!!
(I intend to watch it MANY times!!)
I'll be back with MORE detailed results from the first day, and today's action--soon!!
There is already MUCH to tell!!
Saturday, August 13, 2016
Thursday, August 11, 2016
Rio--The Women--Part 2
Sorry for the delay--I was napping!!
Anyway, here's the remaining 12 Women's events!
Check my first Men's Preview for all the guide info!
LJ (24-3.50, or 7.40)
In a few events, there are Russians who, by their presence, would have added to that event's excitement, and--let's be honest--to the quality of its field.
Well here--with Darya Klishina entered--no such problem exists!
She made it through the insensitive and unjust iron wall of hypocrisy , as established and certified by such agents of destruction as the IOC, WADA, and IAAF!!
Well, politics aside, I've selected Ms Klishina as my Bronze medalist!!
Only Ivana Spanovic (Silver) and Brittney Reese (Gold) are better!
Much will depend on whether Reese can avoid fouling at critical moments.
And whether she can AGAIN come through with her massive final round jumps!!
Trying to break up this happy little group will be Tianna Bartoletta, Shara Proctor, Christobel Nettey, Blessing Okagbare, and Janay DeLoach.
Unless Reese adds a few inches to her PR, the MR is safe.
I'll give it 20-80 odds of going down!
200 (21.34)
Without Allyson Felix, the Road to Rio Gold became less foggy.
But we still have to decide the winner.
I just can't see Dafne Schippers being beaten here.
In fact, I give her (or even Elaine Thompson!) a pretty strong 30-70 odds of her removing Flojo from the OG Meet Record list here!
It's a VERY tough standard to beat, but Schippers seems to have the elements needed!
Thompson's 10.70 century speed might help her here, but mostly to hold on to Silver!
VCB is better here than in the 100, so she gets the Bronze!
Michelle Lee Ahye might be ready for a huge 200 breakthrough, so watch her!
Add Jenna Prandini, Tori Bowie, Marie Josee Ta-Lou, Dina Asher-Smith, and Shaunae Miller to your Watch list!
Deajah Stevens will have her Olympics experience to talk about when she returns to Eugene, but that's all.
100H (12.35)
We first need to ERASE the memory of the fiasco of Beijing 2015!
It won't happen here--knock on wood!!
(Besides, with the failure of the WORLD RECORD holder from making the US team, we've already HAD enough shocks to last a few Olympiads!!)
But Kendra Harrison's--and Lolo Jones's, and Sally Pearson's, and, and...!---absence will only have us focus more on who IS here!
All that said, I still don't see a US sweep!
I think Tiffany Porter (herself a former American, now a Brit!) will step in the middle of Gold winner Nia Ali, and Brianna Rollins's Bronze!
No WR here, but that MR is definitely under fire, with 85-15 odds of its going down!!
Porter's sister Cindy Ofili will challenge, as will Kristi Castlin, Alina Talay, Cindy Roleder, and Susan Kallur!
It would take a miracle (almost!) for Australia's best (in Pearson's absence!), Michelle Jenneke, to make it through the rounds!
But beware of Jasmine Camacho-Quinn, a fast riser who might be ready to rumble (or at least Rumba!! LOL) here!!
JT (234-8, or 71.53)
This is an event going through a transition.
For years, two women have been dominant--Christine Obergfoll and Barbara Spotakova.
They're still here--and still formidable--but just not quite where they WERE!
Thus, the door is opened for new spear-chuckers to emerge!
While I still believe Spotakova will win, she'll have some company, mainly from Linda Stahl and Tatsiana Khaladovich!!
Kara Winger began 2016 strongly, but has since leveled off, not coming near her American Record!
The other Americans--Brittany Borman and Maggie Malone would need a big throw just to make the final, even in this weakened event!
MR odds are 20-80!
400H (52.64)
Questions--
Is Delilah Muhammad ready for another sub-53?
Is Zuzana Hejnova in better shape than her results have shown?
And how much MORE can now-17 year old Sydney McLaughlin DESTROY her High School Record??
Beyond those mysteries, we need to know the TRUE potential of Ashley Spencer, Sara Petersen, Elidh Doyle, and Kemi Adekoya.
And what about Jamaica's Janieve Russell, finally admitted entry, after some puzzling flip-flops by the Jamaican team selectors!
The MR is in some danger, but will have to better the 40-60 odds I'm giving it!
In the end, I see Hejnova prevailing, with McLaughlin "shocking" for Silver, and Spencer finishing 3rd!
Muhammad's ONE great performance isn't enough to convince me!
20000 Walk (1:25:02)
The MR is safe!
ZERO chance of it going down!
And that's NOT only because of the missing Russians!
In their absence, the Chinese women should prevail, with Hong Liu beating Xiuzhi Lu for the Gold!
Bronze might go to Maria Gonzalez!
Eleanora Giorgi, Shepju Qieyang, and Anezka Drahatova are ones to watch.
If top American Maria Michta -Coffey can break her American Record AND finish in the top 15, it would be reward enough!!
(Actually, one of the two would do!! LOL)
PV (16-6.75, or 5.05)
That Meet Record is held by the one Russian whose absence will certainly NOT make this heart grow fonder!!
Yelena Isinbayeva's FORCED exclusion from this competition is a sin beyond forgiveness or redemption!!
Those who ruled against this CLEAN and INNOCENT Woman should hang their ugly heads in SHAME!!
That said--and my anger remains palpable!!--this event STILL has the deepest quality field of them all!!
It could--even without Isi--still be a HISTORIC moment in time!!
Without Isinbayeva's SURE Gold--I gave it to the rapidly-rising STAR, Sandi Morris!
Jenn Suhr has had some enormous vaults in 2016, but she's also been somewhat tentative in her performances, trying to avoid a worsening of her calf problems!
Ekaterina Stefanidi has been great all year, and seems ready for more.
If Morris falters at all, Gold goes to the Greek!!
Brazil's Golden Girl--Fabiana Murer--is now 35 years old!
She's still able to scale the heights, but that highest bar will keep her in the Bronze position, despite the massive cheers she'll receive from the sold-out crowd on the day of this final!!
The list of challengers is long--and strong!!
(We could very well see Place Records broken in EVERY position!!!)
Watch for Angelica Bengtsson, Yarisley Silva, Ling Li, Lisa Ryzih, Tina Sutej, Holly Bradshaw, Alana Boyd, Nicole Buchler, Nikoleta Kiriakopoulou, and Alysha Newman!
But don't neglect the trio of teens who are more than mere window dressing--Eliza McCartney, Lexi Weeks, and Wilma Murto!
And be SUHR to keep Jenn in your sights!!
HaHaHa!
5000 (14:40.79)
This MR gets 95-5 odds of being SMASHED into oblivion!!
That said, WHO gets the MR honors at the end?
The entry list has both Almaz Ayana and Tirunesh Dibaba returning from the 10K to double here!
IF they both run--and Ayana is a certainty!--it will be another doozy of a dogfight!!
They both have everything needed to prevail!
Toss a coin!
I'm thinking Tiru will NOT double back, so I gave my Silver and Bronze to Helen Obiri and Vivian Cheruiyot.
Mercy Cherono seems the only other one good enough to challenge for a medal!
But beware of Meraf Bahta!
The American trio are good--for Americans!
None, however, have ever broken the 15:00 barrier.
Even if one or more do here, it won't be enough!
But give the "US Gold" to Shelby Houlihan, who looks to be the next great American all-arounder!
Kim Conley is in her SECOND best event, but she and Abbey D'Agostino might get PR's!
4X100 Relay (40.82)
The United States has a foursome with enough wheels to run this MR into the ground!!
IF they finish with baton still in hand, the odds are 70-30!!
If not, and Jamaica wins, the MR will survive!
SAFP remains too big a question to see her beating whoever the US has on anchor!
Great Britain is a strong Bronze candidate!
The Netherlands will have Dafne Schippers somewhere on their team---2nd leg? anchor?--but she won't be enough to send her team to the podium!
Nigeria, Poland, Germany, and Trinidad are teams to watch.
HJ (6-9, or 2.06)
The MR should be safe, with 15-85 odds of its even being tied!
The Russians--whether clean or dirty--leave a deep hole in this field's quality!
But even with them here, I'd still give Chaunte Lowe a great chance for Gold!
Without Anna Chicherova and Mariya Kuchina, 3-time mother Lowe should go highest--pun very much intended!
Vashti Cunningham is just 18, and a recent graduate of a Las Vegas HS!
But she's shown a toughness and maturity that seems 10 years older!!
So she gets my Silver, ahead of the iconic--and highly entertaining!--Blanka Vlasic!!
Ruth Beitia is 37, but setting Age records, and winning!!
However, the podium will probably be beyond her reach here!
Kamila Licwinko is a STRONG contender, and would be the one to step in if any of the top 3 have problems!
Alessia Trost, Akela Jones, Inika McPherson, and even young Morgan Lake, are ones who could shock!
800 (1:53.43)
Which side are you on?
Accepting Caster Semenya as a full-blown WOMAN (as well as Margaret Wambui and Francine Niyonsaba!!)---or NOT??
I'm siding FIRMLY against their inclusion in an all-WOMAN's event!!
I've written about this in other posts, so won't repeat myself.
But whatever their results---for place or time--I will NOT honor them here!!
With that clearly in mind, I give Gold to Melissa Bishop, who is clearly the World's best this year!
Ajee Wilson should finish 2nd, with Kate Grace's Mile strength giving her the nod for Bronze!
Eunice Sum is always dangerous, and Lynsey Sharp is a solid contender.
Watch also for Sifan Hassan (doubling??), Natoya Goule, and Sahilly Diago!
A shock candidate remains Iceland's Anita Hinriksdottir, who has yet to finish in the 1's!
The MR has a 100-0 chance to survive!!
4X400 Relay (3:15.17)
The US Trials open 400 saw Francena McCorory being left behind.
She won't be behind here, as she'll probably help the US to beat a strong Jamaican squad for Gold!
Only Great Britain and the Bahamas have enough wheels to challenge!
Allyson Felix will probably anchor for the US, and even if she doesn't repeat her 47.72 split from Beijing, it will be enough to prevail!
The MR is safe, however---with ZERO odds for beating it!
And that end's THAT!!
Enjoy the next 10 days, my friends!
Thank you for using my blog as your source for all the necessary information needed to heighten and sharpen your enjoyment!!
Watch for FREQUENT results-filled posts throughout the Games of Rio!!
Anyway, here's the remaining 12 Women's events!
Check my first Men's Preview for all the guide info!
LJ (24-3.50, or 7.40)
In a few events, there are Russians who, by their presence, would have added to that event's excitement, and--let's be honest--to the quality of its field.
Well here--with Darya Klishina entered--no such problem exists!
She made it through the insensitive and unjust iron wall of hypocrisy , as established and certified by such agents of destruction as the IOC, WADA, and IAAF!!
Well, politics aside, I've selected Ms Klishina as my Bronze medalist!!
Only Ivana Spanovic (Silver) and Brittney Reese (Gold) are better!
Much will depend on whether Reese can avoid fouling at critical moments.
And whether she can AGAIN come through with her massive final round jumps!!
Trying to break up this happy little group will be Tianna Bartoletta, Shara Proctor, Christobel Nettey, Blessing Okagbare, and Janay DeLoach.
Unless Reese adds a few inches to her PR, the MR is safe.
I'll give it 20-80 odds of going down!
200 (21.34)
Without Allyson Felix, the Road to Rio Gold became less foggy.
But we still have to decide the winner.
I just can't see Dafne Schippers being beaten here.
In fact, I give her (or even Elaine Thompson!) a pretty strong 30-70 odds of her removing Flojo from the OG Meet Record list here!
It's a VERY tough standard to beat, but Schippers seems to have the elements needed!
Thompson's 10.70 century speed might help her here, but mostly to hold on to Silver!
VCB is better here than in the 100, so she gets the Bronze!
Michelle Lee Ahye might be ready for a huge 200 breakthrough, so watch her!
Add Jenna Prandini, Tori Bowie, Marie Josee Ta-Lou, Dina Asher-Smith, and Shaunae Miller to your Watch list!
Deajah Stevens will have her Olympics experience to talk about when she returns to Eugene, but that's all.
100H (12.35)
We first need to ERASE the memory of the fiasco of Beijing 2015!
It won't happen here--knock on wood!!
(Besides, with the failure of the WORLD RECORD holder from making the US team, we've already HAD enough shocks to last a few Olympiads!!)
But Kendra Harrison's--and Lolo Jones's, and Sally Pearson's, and, and...!---absence will only have us focus more on who IS here!
All that said, I still don't see a US sweep!
I think Tiffany Porter (herself a former American, now a Brit!) will step in the middle of Gold winner Nia Ali, and Brianna Rollins's Bronze!
No WR here, but that MR is definitely under fire, with 85-15 odds of its going down!!
Porter's sister Cindy Ofili will challenge, as will Kristi Castlin, Alina Talay, Cindy Roleder, and Susan Kallur!
It would take a miracle (almost!) for Australia's best (in Pearson's absence!), Michelle Jenneke, to make it through the rounds!
But beware of Jasmine Camacho-Quinn, a fast riser who might be ready to rumble (or at least Rumba!! LOL) here!!
JT (234-8, or 71.53)
This is an event going through a transition.
For years, two women have been dominant--Christine Obergfoll and Barbara Spotakova.
They're still here--and still formidable--but just not quite where they WERE!
Thus, the door is opened for new spear-chuckers to emerge!
While I still believe Spotakova will win, she'll have some company, mainly from Linda Stahl and Tatsiana Khaladovich!!
Kara Winger began 2016 strongly, but has since leveled off, not coming near her American Record!
The other Americans--Brittany Borman and Maggie Malone would need a big throw just to make the final, even in this weakened event!
MR odds are 20-80!
400H (52.64)
Questions--
Is Delilah Muhammad ready for another sub-53?
Is Zuzana Hejnova in better shape than her results have shown?
And how much MORE can now-17 year old Sydney McLaughlin DESTROY her High School Record??
Beyond those mysteries, we need to know the TRUE potential of Ashley Spencer, Sara Petersen, Elidh Doyle, and Kemi Adekoya.
And what about Jamaica's Janieve Russell, finally admitted entry, after some puzzling flip-flops by the Jamaican team selectors!
The MR is in some danger, but will have to better the 40-60 odds I'm giving it!
In the end, I see Hejnova prevailing, with McLaughlin "shocking" for Silver, and Spencer finishing 3rd!
Muhammad's ONE great performance isn't enough to convince me!
20000 Walk (1:25:02)
The MR is safe!
ZERO chance of it going down!
And that's NOT only because of the missing Russians!
In their absence, the Chinese women should prevail, with Hong Liu beating Xiuzhi Lu for the Gold!
Bronze might go to Maria Gonzalez!
Eleanora Giorgi, Shepju Qieyang, and Anezka Drahatova are ones to watch.
If top American Maria Michta -Coffey can break her American Record AND finish in the top 15, it would be reward enough!!
(Actually, one of the two would do!! LOL)
PV (16-6.75, or 5.05)
That Meet Record is held by the one Russian whose absence will certainly NOT make this heart grow fonder!!
Yelena Isinbayeva's FORCED exclusion from this competition is a sin beyond forgiveness or redemption!!
Those who ruled against this CLEAN and INNOCENT Woman should hang their ugly heads in SHAME!!
That said--and my anger remains palpable!!--this event STILL has the deepest quality field of them all!!
It could--even without Isi--still be a HISTORIC moment in time!!
Without Isinbayeva's SURE Gold--I gave it to the rapidly-rising STAR, Sandi Morris!
Jenn Suhr has had some enormous vaults in 2016, but she's also been somewhat tentative in her performances, trying to avoid a worsening of her calf problems!
Ekaterina Stefanidi has been great all year, and seems ready for more.
If Morris falters at all, Gold goes to the Greek!!
Brazil's Golden Girl--Fabiana Murer--is now 35 years old!
She's still able to scale the heights, but that highest bar will keep her in the Bronze position, despite the massive cheers she'll receive from the sold-out crowd on the day of this final!!
The list of challengers is long--and strong!!
(We could very well see Place Records broken in EVERY position!!!)
Watch for Angelica Bengtsson, Yarisley Silva, Ling Li, Lisa Ryzih, Tina Sutej, Holly Bradshaw, Alana Boyd, Nicole Buchler, Nikoleta Kiriakopoulou, and Alysha Newman!
But don't neglect the trio of teens who are more than mere window dressing--Eliza McCartney, Lexi Weeks, and Wilma Murto!
And be SUHR to keep Jenn in your sights!!
HaHaHa!
5000 (14:40.79)
This MR gets 95-5 odds of being SMASHED into oblivion!!
That said, WHO gets the MR honors at the end?
The entry list has both Almaz Ayana and Tirunesh Dibaba returning from the 10K to double here!
IF they both run--and Ayana is a certainty!--it will be another doozy of a dogfight!!
They both have everything needed to prevail!
Toss a coin!
I'm thinking Tiru will NOT double back, so I gave my Silver and Bronze to Helen Obiri and Vivian Cheruiyot.
Mercy Cherono seems the only other one good enough to challenge for a medal!
But beware of Meraf Bahta!
The American trio are good--for Americans!
None, however, have ever broken the 15:00 barrier.
Even if one or more do here, it won't be enough!
But give the "US Gold" to Shelby Houlihan, who looks to be the next great American all-arounder!
Kim Conley is in her SECOND best event, but she and Abbey D'Agostino might get PR's!
4X100 Relay (40.82)
The United States has a foursome with enough wheels to run this MR into the ground!!
IF they finish with baton still in hand, the odds are 70-30!!
If not, and Jamaica wins, the MR will survive!
SAFP remains too big a question to see her beating whoever the US has on anchor!
Great Britain is a strong Bronze candidate!
The Netherlands will have Dafne Schippers somewhere on their team---2nd leg? anchor?--but she won't be enough to send her team to the podium!
Nigeria, Poland, Germany, and Trinidad are teams to watch.
HJ (6-9, or 2.06)
The MR should be safe, with 15-85 odds of its even being tied!
The Russians--whether clean or dirty--leave a deep hole in this field's quality!
But even with them here, I'd still give Chaunte Lowe a great chance for Gold!
Without Anna Chicherova and Mariya Kuchina, 3-time mother Lowe should go highest--pun very much intended!
Vashti Cunningham is just 18, and a recent graduate of a Las Vegas HS!
But she's shown a toughness and maturity that seems 10 years older!!
So she gets my Silver, ahead of the iconic--and highly entertaining!--Blanka Vlasic!!
Ruth Beitia is 37, but setting Age records, and winning!!
However, the podium will probably be beyond her reach here!
Kamila Licwinko is a STRONG contender, and would be the one to step in if any of the top 3 have problems!
Alessia Trost, Akela Jones, Inika McPherson, and even young Morgan Lake, are ones who could shock!
800 (1:53.43)
Which side are you on?
Accepting Caster Semenya as a full-blown WOMAN (as well as Margaret Wambui and Francine Niyonsaba!!)---or NOT??
I'm siding FIRMLY against their inclusion in an all-WOMAN's event!!
I've written about this in other posts, so won't repeat myself.
But whatever their results---for place or time--I will NOT honor them here!!
With that clearly in mind, I give Gold to Melissa Bishop, who is clearly the World's best this year!
Ajee Wilson should finish 2nd, with Kate Grace's Mile strength giving her the nod for Bronze!
Eunice Sum is always dangerous, and Lynsey Sharp is a solid contender.
Watch also for Sifan Hassan (doubling??), Natoya Goule, and Sahilly Diago!
A shock candidate remains Iceland's Anita Hinriksdottir, who has yet to finish in the 1's!
The MR has a 100-0 chance to survive!!
4X400 Relay (3:15.17)
The US Trials open 400 saw Francena McCorory being left behind.
She won't be behind here, as she'll probably help the US to beat a strong Jamaican squad for Gold!
Only Great Britain and the Bahamas have enough wheels to challenge!
Allyson Felix will probably anchor for the US, and even if she doesn't repeat her 47.72 split from Beijing, it will be enough to prevail!
The MR is safe, however---with ZERO odds for beating it!
And that end's THAT!!
Enjoy the next 10 days, my friends!
Thank you for using my blog as your source for all the necessary information needed to heighten and sharpen your enjoyment!!
Watch for FREQUENT results-filled posts throughout the Games of Rio!!
Rio--The Men--Part 2
Here's the final 13 events for the Men!
See my first Men's post for all the usual guideline info!
3000SC (8:05.51)
He almost won in Paris last year!
Then he fell over the last barrier, losing the race, and a time that begins with a 7.
His name is Evan Jager, and this time, he's not going to fall, he's going to win, and his time WILL begin with the number 7.
Yes, my pick for gold is Mr Bun himself!
He will leave Consesius Kipruto and Ezekiel Kemboi somewhere to his rear, then will deliver a finishing kick that will shock and awe!!
No denying the Africans are good---VERY good!
But Jager was ready to crash their party in 2016---before HE crashed!!
This time, no crashes, no regrets, no loss!!
Mehedine Mekhissi is dangerous, but can be contained.
Don Cabral, another American, might be ready for an 8:10, but that won't get him near the medalists!
400H (46.78)
Last year's World Championship race produced the lone sub-48 time of the year.
These Olympics might do the same---or maybe not!
This event, as I've noted in other posts, is in the doldrums, time-wise!
It would be nice if 3 or 4 could dip under 48---but I don't see that happening!!
Nicholas Bett---who ran that 47.79 last year---will win this one too!
Michael Tinsley and Kerron Clement should follow.
Javier Culson, Jehue Gordon, Jeff Gibson, and LJ Van Zyl are contenders to make the final!
Watch for the Jamaican kid, Jaheel Hyde!
He's sort of the male version of Sydney McLaughlin, with potential and wheels in his favor!!
As if you haven't already figured it out, the odds for this MR falling are ZILCH!!
SP (73-8.75, or 22.47)
If this were a Diamond League meet, I'd give this MR 40-60 odds.
But for some reason, Putters rarely throw as far as they're able in Championship settings as they can in a one-off Invitational!!
So the odds here fall to 20-80!
While Joe Kovacs has the longest throw of recent years and a high degree of consistency, I'm seeing Tom Walsh taking Gold over Kovacs.
For Bronze, I WANTED to go with Ryan Crouser, but decided he just wasn't steady enough.
He's still raw---which I suppose could be either good or bad!
So watch for him to be the X factor!
However, as I recently reported, Stephen Mozia PR'ed by more than two FEET recently, all the way to 71-4.75!!
If he's in that range, Bronze could be his!!
O'Dayne Richards, Tomas Majewski, David Storl, and the youngster, Konrad Bukowiecki, are major threats to those ahead of them!!
Darrell Hill is probably there for the experience!
Decathlon (8893)
The MR should have been broken 4 years ago!
But Ashton Eaton wanted to win---which he did---and wasn't as concerned with records!!
Hopefully, his attitude has changed!
He CAN break the World Record here---his own!
So scoring 8894 points (1 point over the MR) should be a piece of cake for this Master of the Multis!
He may even HAVE to score that much--just to win!!
Damian Warner of Canada is a vastly improved 10-eventer---and even has a 100 time faster than the speedy Mr Eaton!!
So don't be shocked if Warner is leading after the first event!!
As I noted with the Heptathlon preview, just ONE bad event can kill your dreams of a medal---or even finishing!!
But these two are Pro's, and shouldn't have that kind of problem!!
Jeremy Taiwo, Lindon Victor, Arthur Obele, Willem Coertzen, Kevin Mayer, and Leonel Suarez could get Place Records in this solid field.
Watch for Zach Ziemek and Kurt Felix!
80-20 for the MR falling--this time!
200 (19.30)
Usain Bolt says he can run 18-something---in Rio!!
You know what?
I believe he CAN!!
But WILL he??
That's a big 0.20 seconds improvement on his PR--which happens to be the World Record!!
The MR would be a whole lot easier, so I'll give that one 70-30 odds!!
But whether his time is 18.99 or 19-something, I can't see Bolt losing!
Justin Gatlin, his main rival of 2015, has been harassed in Rio--a young female American swimmer said LOUDLY that people like Gatlin--and she NAMED him!!--shouldn't be allowed to compete here!!
That pissed him off!
Whether he can channel that anger into the juice needed to run fast is yet to be seen.
For that reason, I'm giving Silver to LaShawn Merritt over Justin's Bronze!
Of course, Merritt's new PR of 19.74 would be dangerous, even if Gatlin was happy as a lamb!!
Andre De Grasse, Yohan Blake, Miguel Francis, Femi Ogunode, and Ameer Webb could surprise.
But Bolt is a solid bet for Gold!
50000 Walk (3:35:59)
Admittedly, despite having a stronger interest in RaceWalking than ever before, I don't know many names here.
So I've just picked a few names I DO know for my medal picks.
Yohan Diniz holds the WR with a time about 3 minutes faster than this MR!
Even so, I'll give the odds only as 40-60.
Jared Tallent has the---talent (sic!!)--to win it all, but may not have the legs--pardon all these cliched puns!!
But I'll give him Silver over Matej Toth, who's reliably fast--and a winner!!
Miguel Lopez is good, as are Robert Heffernan, Zhen Wang, Wei Yu, and Erick Barrondo!
HT (278-2, or 84.80)
Just as with the Women, the Men's Hammer Throw has one standout performer, name of Pawel Fajdek!!
His throws of over 83 meters are miles ahead (Pardon!!) of everyone else here, despite the presence of two storied veterans, names of Krisztian Pars and Ivan Tikhon!!
Put Tikhon in 2nd, with Pars 3rd!
Rudy Winkler, the specs-wearing youngster (comparatively!) is much-improved, and could be ready to take over as America's best!!
Odds for a MR are 30-70--and that's probably 10 or 15 points too high!!
4X100 Relay (36.84)
Aaah, now we get to the Roller Coaster ride!!
Hang on, Baby!!
Remember that old hair-something commercial, where they asked--"Does she, or doesn't she?"??
Well, here the question becomes--Will he, or won't he, EFF UP the baton pass, causing a DNF or a DQ??
For we Americans, it's become the stuff of nightmares, and endless Message Board discussion!!
With no easy solutions!!
So---IF the US team holds onto the baton, and completes each pass within the pass zones--then we have the wheels to---LOSE--to Jamaica!!
That's what I said!
With a revived Yohan Blake, and a super-dominant Usain Bolt, there's no way the US beats the Jams!!
And the MR--aka WR--are in mortal danger!!
Give it 80-20 odds!!
Great Britain should win the Bronze, with Germany, Canada, and Japan in the final also---to pick up the pieces--just in case!!
JT (297-1, or 90.57)
This exciting event is in a sort of Green Room---the place where people wait to go on stage at a TV studio!
We've HAD some great throws in recent years, but it seems most of them come from folks we LEAST expect to be World Class JT'ers!
Keshorn Walcott and Julius Yego are two great examples!!
But Europe still has some studs---and Thomas Rohler is the hottest of them, getting THIS close to 300 feet!!
Yego's been there and done that, but not this year!
So give Rohler the Gold, with Yego beating Antti Ruuskanen for the Silver!
Vitezslav Vesely is solid, as is Tero Pitkamaki.
MR odds are 50-50!!
1500 (3:32.07)
They haven't run any REALLY fast times this year!
No 3:26's or 3:27's!
And they won't here either, as these kinds of races are "strategically" run!
Odds for even the MR going down are just 30-70!
Even though Asbel Kiprop and Ayanleh Souleiman are here, don't look for a catfight to take the lead--at least not until there's just 300 meters to run!
At that point, it would be pretty much anyone's race!
Even Matthew Centrowitz has a chance to medal!
In fact, I gave him the Silver--behind Kiprop--who has a bit more burn left on his wheels than Centro does!
Taoufik Makhloufi, Ron Kwemoi, Aman Wote, Mekonnen Gebremedhim, Abdelaati Iguider, and Elijah Manangoi all have what it takes to shock.
Only question is--in a crowded pack, do they have the room to start their sprint?
Robby Andrews better be THIS close to the front to best use his great kick!
Same goes for Ben Blankenship and Nick Willis!
And Centro!
5000 (12:57.82)
MR gets 10-90 odds!
And MoBot gets beat again---at least on MY predictions sheet!!
While Muktis Edris, Dejen Gebremeskel, Hagos Gebrhiwet, Tsegay Tuemay, Isaih Koech, Josh Cheptegei, and Albert Rop have solid kicks, and fast times, look for 41 year old Bernard Lagat to sneak into the Bronze position!
Also look for Mo Ahmed, Hassan Mead, Ali Kaya, and even David Torrence--of PERU!!--to do battle!
This could be the most exciting race...or the dullest!!
4X400 Relay (2:55.39)
With all the sub-44 guys around today, you'd think the WR would be broken!
So seeing this one-second-slower Meet Record remain intact---as I expect it will here--is kind of surprising!
Whatever the case regarding the records, the RACE should be good--unless the US makes it a runaway--literally and figuratively!!
The US should take this, especially with LaShawn Merritt on anchor!
Botswana and Trinidad are good, as is Borlee---er, Belgium--and Great Britain too!
Watch for the Bahamas and Jamaica, and maybe the Dominican Republic!
One things pretty certain---far less chance of a botched baton pass here!
Give the MR 20-80 odds!
Marathon (2:06:32)
Wake up, Galen Rupp fans---and haters!!
His time to romp---or get stomped--is upon us!!
His one Marathon was a 2:11 affair!
Decent rookie effort---for an American!
But when you're going against a guy--Eliud Kipchoge--whose SLOWEST 26.2 is about 5 or 6 minutes FASTER than your initial outing---you got problems---BIG problems!!
What if Eliud---who was no slouch as a Trackster!!--takes it out, just to TEST you?
He chugs through an easy---for HIM--1:02:30, say--then PICKS UP the pace for 2 or 3 miles!!
Do you go with him, and try to out-psych him---even if you DIE around the next bend??
Or do you trust that he'll go out in 1:05 instead---and make it a final-5K kick---where YOUR track speed can match, if not surpass, his??
Whatever the strategy, this should be a classic finish to a classic Games!!
For the record--pun NOT intended, but it works!!--my picks are Kipchoge, Rupp, then Stanley Biwott for the Bronze!!
Let the Games---heh heh--begin!!
See you in a few with my final Women's Preview!!
See my first Men's post for all the usual guideline info!
3000SC (8:05.51)
He almost won in Paris last year!
Then he fell over the last barrier, losing the race, and a time that begins with a 7.
His name is Evan Jager, and this time, he's not going to fall, he's going to win, and his time WILL begin with the number 7.
Yes, my pick for gold is Mr Bun himself!
He will leave Consesius Kipruto and Ezekiel Kemboi somewhere to his rear, then will deliver a finishing kick that will shock and awe!!
No denying the Africans are good---VERY good!
But Jager was ready to crash their party in 2016---before HE crashed!!
This time, no crashes, no regrets, no loss!!
Mehedine Mekhissi is dangerous, but can be contained.
Don Cabral, another American, might be ready for an 8:10, but that won't get him near the medalists!
400H (46.78)
Last year's World Championship race produced the lone sub-48 time of the year.
These Olympics might do the same---or maybe not!
This event, as I've noted in other posts, is in the doldrums, time-wise!
It would be nice if 3 or 4 could dip under 48---but I don't see that happening!!
Nicholas Bett---who ran that 47.79 last year---will win this one too!
Michael Tinsley and Kerron Clement should follow.
Javier Culson, Jehue Gordon, Jeff Gibson, and LJ Van Zyl are contenders to make the final!
Watch for the Jamaican kid, Jaheel Hyde!
He's sort of the male version of Sydney McLaughlin, with potential and wheels in his favor!!
As if you haven't already figured it out, the odds for this MR falling are ZILCH!!
SP (73-8.75, or 22.47)
If this were a Diamond League meet, I'd give this MR 40-60 odds.
But for some reason, Putters rarely throw as far as they're able in Championship settings as they can in a one-off Invitational!!
So the odds here fall to 20-80!
While Joe Kovacs has the longest throw of recent years and a high degree of consistency, I'm seeing Tom Walsh taking Gold over Kovacs.
For Bronze, I WANTED to go with Ryan Crouser, but decided he just wasn't steady enough.
He's still raw---which I suppose could be either good or bad!
So watch for him to be the X factor!
However, as I recently reported, Stephen Mozia PR'ed by more than two FEET recently, all the way to 71-4.75!!
If he's in that range, Bronze could be his!!
O'Dayne Richards, Tomas Majewski, David Storl, and the youngster, Konrad Bukowiecki, are major threats to those ahead of them!!
Darrell Hill is probably there for the experience!
Decathlon (8893)
The MR should have been broken 4 years ago!
But Ashton Eaton wanted to win---which he did---and wasn't as concerned with records!!
Hopefully, his attitude has changed!
He CAN break the World Record here---his own!
So scoring 8894 points (1 point over the MR) should be a piece of cake for this Master of the Multis!
He may even HAVE to score that much--just to win!!
Damian Warner of Canada is a vastly improved 10-eventer---and even has a 100 time faster than the speedy Mr Eaton!!
So don't be shocked if Warner is leading after the first event!!
As I noted with the Heptathlon preview, just ONE bad event can kill your dreams of a medal---or even finishing!!
But these two are Pro's, and shouldn't have that kind of problem!!
Jeremy Taiwo, Lindon Victor, Arthur Obele, Willem Coertzen, Kevin Mayer, and Leonel Suarez could get Place Records in this solid field.
Watch for Zach Ziemek and Kurt Felix!
80-20 for the MR falling--this time!
200 (19.30)
Usain Bolt says he can run 18-something---in Rio!!
You know what?
I believe he CAN!!
But WILL he??
That's a big 0.20 seconds improvement on his PR--which happens to be the World Record!!
The MR would be a whole lot easier, so I'll give that one 70-30 odds!!
But whether his time is 18.99 or 19-something, I can't see Bolt losing!
Justin Gatlin, his main rival of 2015, has been harassed in Rio--a young female American swimmer said LOUDLY that people like Gatlin--and she NAMED him!!--shouldn't be allowed to compete here!!
That pissed him off!
Whether he can channel that anger into the juice needed to run fast is yet to be seen.
For that reason, I'm giving Silver to LaShawn Merritt over Justin's Bronze!
Of course, Merritt's new PR of 19.74 would be dangerous, even if Gatlin was happy as a lamb!!
Andre De Grasse, Yohan Blake, Miguel Francis, Femi Ogunode, and Ameer Webb could surprise.
But Bolt is a solid bet for Gold!
50000 Walk (3:35:59)
Admittedly, despite having a stronger interest in RaceWalking than ever before, I don't know many names here.
So I've just picked a few names I DO know for my medal picks.
Yohan Diniz holds the WR with a time about 3 minutes faster than this MR!
Even so, I'll give the odds only as 40-60.
Jared Tallent has the---talent (sic!!)--to win it all, but may not have the legs--pardon all these cliched puns!!
But I'll give him Silver over Matej Toth, who's reliably fast--and a winner!!
Miguel Lopez is good, as are Robert Heffernan, Zhen Wang, Wei Yu, and Erick Barrondo!
HT (278-2, or 84.80)
Just as with the Women, the Men's Hammer Throw has one standout performer, name of Pawel Fajdek!!
His throws of over 83 meters are miles ahead (Pardon!!) of everyone else here, despite the presence of two storied veterans, names of Krisztian Pars and Ivan Tikhon!!
Put Tikhon in 2nd, with Pars 3rd!
Rudy Winkler, the specs-wearing youngster (comparatively!) is much-improved, and could be ready to take over as America's best!!
Odds for a MR are 30-70--and that's probably 10 or 15 points too high!!
4X100 Relay (36.84)
Aaah, now we get to the Roller Coaster ride!!
Hang on, Baby!!
Remember that old hair-something commercial, where they asked--"Does she, or doesn't she?"??
Well, here the question becomes--Will he, or won't he, EFF UP the baton pass, causing a DNF or a DQ??
For we Americans, it's become the stuff of nightmares, and endless Message Board discussion!!
With no easy solutions!!
So---IF the US team holds onto the baton, and completes each pass within the pass zones--then we have the wheels to---LOSE--to Jamaica!!
That's what I said!
With a revived Yohan Blake, and a super-dominant Usain Bolt, there's no way the US beats the Jams!!
And the MR--aka WR--are in mortal danger!!
Give it 80-20 odds!!
Great Britain should win the Bronze, with Germany, Canada, and Japan in the final also---to pick up the pieces--just in case!!
JT (297-1, or 90.57)
This exciting event is in a sort of Green Room---the place where people wait to go on stage at a TV studio!
We've HAD some great throws in recent years, but it seems most of them come from folks we LEAST expect to be World Class JT'ers!
Keshorn Walcott and Julius Yego are two great examples!!
But Europe still has some studs---and Thomas Rohler is the hottest of them, getting THIS close to 300 feet!!
Yego's been there and done that, but not this year!
So give Rohler the Gold, with Yego beating Antti Ruuskanen for the Silver!
Vitezslav Vesely is solid, as is Tero Pitkamaki.
MR odds are 50-50!!
1500 (3:32.07)
They haven't run any REALLY fast times this year!
No 3:26's or 3:27's!
And they won't here either, as these kinds of races are "strategically" run!
Odds for even the MR going down are just 30-70!
Even though Asbel Kiprop and Ayanleh Souleiman are here, don't look for a catfight to take the lead--at least not until there's just 300 meters to run!
At that point, it would be pretty much anyone's race!
Even Matthew Centrowitz has a chance to medal!
In fact, I gave him the Silver--behind Kiprop--who has a bit more burn left on his wheels than Centro does!
Taoufik Makhloufi, Ron Kwemoi, Aman Wote, Mekonnen Gebremedhim, Abdelaati Iguider, and Elijah Manangoi all have what it takes to shock.
Only question is--in a crowded pack, do they have the room to start their sprint?
Robby Andrews better be THIS close to the front to best use his great kick!
Same goes for Ben Blankenship and Nick Willis!
And Centro!
5000 (12:57.82)
MR gets 10-90 odds!
And MoBot gets beat again---at least on MY predictions sheet!!
While Muktis Edris, Dejen Gebremeskel, Hagos Gebrhiwet, Tsegay Tuemay, Isaih Koech, Josh Cheptegei, and Albert Rop have solid kicks, and fast times, look for 41 year old Bernard Lagat to sneak into the Bronze position!
Also look for Mo Ahmed, Hassan Mead, Ali Kaya, and even David Torrence--of PERU!!--to do battle!
This could be the most exciting race...or the dullest!!
4X400 Relay (2:55.39)
With all the sub-44 guys around today, you'd think the WR would be broken!
So seeing this one-second-slower Meet Record remain intact---as I expect it will here--is kind of surprising!
Whatever the case regarding the records, the RACE should be good--unless the US makes it a runaway--literally and figuratively!!
The US should take this, especially with LaShawn Merritt on anchor!
Botswana and Trinidad are good, as is Borlee---er, Belgium--and Great Britain too!
Watch for the Bahamas and Jamaica, and maybe the Dominican Republic!
One things pretty certain---far less chance of a botched baton pass here!
Give the MR 20-80 odds!
Marathon (2:06:32)
Wake up, Galen Rupp fans---and haters!!
His time to romp---or get stomped--is upon us!!
His one Marathon was a 2:11 affair!
Decent rookie effort---for an American!
But when you're going against a guy--Eliud Kipchoge--whose SLOWEST 26.2 is about 5 or 6 minutes FASTER than your initial outing---you got problems---BIG problems!!
What if Eliud---who was no slouch as a Trackster!!--takes it out, just to TEST you?
He chugs through an easy---for HIM--1:02:30, say--then PICKS UP the pace for 2 or 3 miles!!
Do you go with him, and try to out-psych him---even if you DIE around the next bend??
Or do you trust that he'll go out in 1:05 instead---and make it a final-5K kick---where YOUR track speed can match, if not surpass, his??
Whatever the strategy, this should be a classic finish to a classic Games!!
For the record--pun NOT intended, but it works!!--my picks are Kipchoge, Rupp, then Stanley Biwott for the Bronze!!
Let the Games---heh heh--begin!!
See you in a few with my final Women's Preview!!
Rio--The Women--Part 1
Check my first Men's post for what these are all about.
But basically, I list the event (in order of the finals), then the OG Meet Record, followed by commentary on names to watch, who I picked for medals, and the odds of the MR being broken!!
These are the first 11 Women's finals!!
10000 (29:54.66)
What a way to kick off these Games for the Women--with maybe THE most fascinating event of the whole schedule!!
And for once, we could actually see a distance event MR going down in a major meet---no rabbits, no beer to drink between laps--and no Russians!
(Not that they'll be missed here, as the 10K isn't their specialty!!)
But Tirunesh Dibaba--the Baby-Faced Destroyer of Yore--is BACK!!
And she has a "Monster in the Closet" ready to take her down, then stomp on her pretty face!!
HER name is Almaz Ayana, and IF all the elements come into play, this could be the distance running equivalent of the Ali-Frazier Heavyweight Championship from 1974!!
But who's going to be eating the track at the finish line?
And how long will we have to wait to find out!
Ayana loves to attack with a large chunk of the race left to run---and I mean ATTACK!!
(8:19 for her last 3000 of last year's 5K!!)
If she pounces here, will---CAN---Tiru follow??
I'm giving this to Genzebe's sister, with Ayana VERY close, but with a lot more space between her and the Bronze girl, Molly Huddle!
Yes, I think Huddle's going to take 3rd--maybe in American Record time!!
This time, Emily Infeld won't be close--even though she might break 31 also!!
Watch also for Betsy Saina, Vivian Cheruiyot, Gelete Burka, and new Kenyan speedster, Alice Aprot!!
Back a ways will follow Marielle Hall, Susan Kuijken, Dominique Scott, Jess Andrews (the new British star!), and the 42 year old Jo Pavey!!
That Greek-American film star slash runner, Alexi Pappas, will find that racing for Greece won't get her to Marathon any faster!
SP (73-6.25, or 22.41)
Valerie is back!
Okay, not in full VALERIE ADAMS IS GOD dress, but close enough to promise a clean victory in Rio!
That is, unless Shot Diva Michelle Carter blows one out there, or Raven Saunders has one of her "improve 2 feet in one throw" kind of sessions!!
However much I'd LOVE for Saunders to medal, she won't!
Christine Schwanitz will follow Adams and Carter!
The only real threat to this trio is China's Lijiao Gong, and she is a REAL threat!!
Anita Marton had a good INdoor WC series, but will get swallowed up here--as will Cleopatra Borel, Yang Gao, and the 3rd American, Felicia Johnson!
The MR?
You gotta be kidding!!
Zero, baby, ZERO!!
100 (10.62)
This is a "pin the tail on the donkey" kind of field--where any of 5 or 6 women have an equal chance to win!
Elaine Thompson has 2016's fastest time--a 10.70.
English Gardner ran 10.74.
Then there's Dafne Schippers, and Tori Bowie, and Tianna Bartoletta!
Lest you think I'm blind (I am!!), I have NOT overlooked the two Acronym Women---VCB and SAFP!
Veronica Campbell-Brown just isn't in this class anymore.
And Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce has too many questions to answer!
IF the latter is healthy AND fully ready, then put her right in the mix--her long green glittery hair flowing behind her as she speeds down the track!!
But I'm giving this to the Mighty Schippers, who just has too much POWER to ignore!
Thompson gets the Silver, with Gardner owning the Bronze!
(Flip those around any way you want!!)
Michelle Lee-Ahye is one who COULD shock---at least for Bronze!
Blessing Okagbare and Muriel Ahoure are returning vets, while Ewe Swoboda and Khalifa St Fort are there for the experience.
Britain's Asha Phillip is a potential shocker!
Odds are 10-90 for a new Meet Record!
Heptathlon (7291)
No Meet Record, but it wouldn't surprise me if one, two, or even all three of the medalists got near, or over, the 7000 point wall!!
The Hyphens (NOT a 60's Motown group!!)--aka Katarina Johnson-Thompson (KJT), Brianne Thiesen-Eaton (BTE), and Jessica Ennis-Hill (JEH)--will be the medalists IMHO---and in that order!
BTW, there's two MORE Hyphens here--Laura Ikauniece-Admidina (LIA??) and Heather Miller-Koch (HMK?)!!
And both are solid back-ups to the "winners"!
In fact, this event could see several Place Records broken!
(See my Place Records posts!!)
But a Heptathlon has 7 chances to mess up!!
Just ONE bad event can end your Olympic medal dreams!
(Don't even think of fouling 3 LJ's, KJT!!)
Akela Jones, and the 2 other Americans--Kendell Williams and Barbara Nwaba--are rock solid, but not yet in the territory of the Hyphens!!
Marathon (2:23:07)
With only Mare (No Relation) Dibaba a real superstar, this race could provide ALL THREE Americans with a chance to make headlines!!
Yes, they are that good!
So I'm going WAY out on the proverbial limb, and predicting Des Linden and Amy Cragg to follow Dibaba to the finish line--with Shalane Flanagan not very far behind!!
Other Africans are good--Tigist Tufa, Jemima Sumgong, and Tirfi Tsegaye!
Any let-up by the "Gringos" will find them sweeping right by, pretty as you please!!
A couple of others to watch are Valeria Strainio, who's now Age 40!, and Sara Moreira.
Lanni Marchant is a strong Canadian, but maybe a mile or so behind the lead group!
One interesting "feature" story here is that TRIPLETS---from Estonia---are all in this race.
They are the Luik girls--Leila, Liina, and Lily!!
(Kind of like the Borlee's---who can only claim Twin-dom---and without having to carry a baton for 26.2 miles!!)
TJ (50-6, or 15.39)
Caterine Ibarguen!
Do we need anyone else?
If she doesn't win---by a BIG margin, I may quit this here predicting silliness!!
One of the clearest favorites in Rio, I gave her the Gold, no hesitation!
I also fell right in line for Olga Rypakova getting Silver.
But Bronze was where I went with blind faith--and selected Keturah Orji!!
If this were a few years ago---when 49's and even 50's were fairly common--Orji would've been left on the bench!
But the Women's TJ this year isn't very strong--with only Ibarguen, as noted, the lone standout!
So the Georgia Bulldog, aka the Collegiate and American Record holder, has a solid chance to medal!
She's technically sound, has the youth momentum factor going for her, and has been pretty consistent, both meet to meet, and in her series!!
One person I haven't mentioned---but who was VERY good INdoors--is Yulimar Rojas.
Watch for her!
The MR is safe, with close to zero odds---maybe 5-95?
HT (256-6, or 78.18)
Here's another event that ends after one person's name is printed!
Anita Wlodarczyk!
266-0 WR, with another throw of 265-3, and several others over 260!
Only one other in this field has EVER reached that barrier, and Betty Heidler is far from THAT Betty Heidler!!
In fact, it wouldn't shock me to see her having difficulty making the final!!
(It happened before!!)
While China's Zheng Wang should Silver, the American Record holding Gwen Berry has a VERY decent chance to take the Bronze!
But there are some solid vets out there, and they're all threats to Berry--or even Wang!!
They are Martina Hrasnova, Wenxiu Zhang, and Kathrin Klaas!
The other Americans--Amber Campbell and DeAnna Price--are possible finalists, but probably on the lower levels!
That Meet Record should choose burial or cremation--it's DEAD!!
100 to 0!!
3000SC (8:58.81)
That MR is the WR!!
And both (the same!) might go down!!
Ruth Chebet and Hyvin Jepkemoi, who raced to times of 8:59.97 and 9:00.01 not long ago--are here, and ready to go several seconds faster!
The woman who was 3rd behind them--in her latest American Record time of 9:10.76--Emma Coburn--is ready to knock several seconds off of HER time too!!
But probably not (yet!) in sub-9 territory!!
It's difficult to tell if they're on record pace until maybe 1800 meters, or 3 laps to go!
If they hit 1800 at 5:30 on the clock, the WR is gone!
Expect a couple of 68-70 laps from there, then an all-out low 60's!!
Many a MALE attempt at a WR fell off quickly at 2K, so that's where the women are separated from the girls!!
The other Americans, Colleen Quigley and Courtney Frerichs--both newbie Profeshes--are strong, and getting stronger, so expect them both to PR--if they're on!!
If Coburn has a bad day (She never has!!!), one of them could be the shock replacement!!
Etanesh Diro, Habiba Ghribi, Sofia Assefa, Hiwot Ayalew---all rock solid in their day---may be a bit off that level of quality---opening the door to the Americans!
Also interesting to watch are Gesa Krause, Erin Teschuk, Aisha Praught, and GenGen LaCaze!
400 (48.25)
This is the "earthquake" event!
Meaning, there's been quite the shake-up in the list of potential entrants!
NOT here are Fran McCorory, Courtney Okolo, or Sanya Richards-Ross, among the Americans!
(The first two ARE here---for Relay duty only! And SRR--newly retired--is in Rio also--ready to do NBC commentary!!)
And, needless to say, no Russians either!!
Last word heard from AF's camp is that she's in shape, NOT hurting at all, and ready for her Olympic swan song!!
We shall see!
IF the above is not just a bunch of BS, then chalk Allyson in as your Gold winner--just as I have!
I've got Shaunae Miller in 2nd, with Phyllis Francis picking up the Bronze!
Miller is VERY good---and might soon surpass Felix's PR's--but facing a "healthy" Felix in her prime is a mountain she's not quite ready to conquer!
That said, we could see both go sub-49!!
Novlene Williams-Mills, Stephanie McPherson, and Christine Day--Jamaicans all--are solid threats to the top 3.
Also keep one eye open for super vets Christine Ohuruogu and Natasha Hastings!
Taylor Ellis-Watson or Seren Bundy-Davies are good to make the final---if there's a lane open!
Pretty close to ZERO odds for the MR going down!
DT (237-2, or 72.30)
The MR is safe, with maybe a 2% chance of anyone even getting within a meter of it!
The two who have that kind of potential are Denia Caballero and Sandra Perkovic--with the latter having Gold in her future!
Perky's lost before--including to Caballero!--but she's also super reliable in Championship settings, and even at just 26, is much experienced in the stratospheric environment of an Olympic Games!
Behind those two, Julia Fischer has some big marks.
But Australia's Dani Samuels has been consistently good of late, so I'm giving her the Bronze ahead of Fischer.
Nadine Muller is another vet who will make life difficult for anyone trying to get past her!
Thus, the 3 Americans--Whitney Ashley, Shelbi Vaughan, and Kelsey Card--might have their Olympic experience ended BEFORE reaching the final!
It WOULD be nice, however, if one or two of them DID get there---even in the lower realms!!
1500 (3:53.96)
Shoot me NOW, please!!
I just wrote--for posterity's sake--my choices for Gold, Silver, and Bronze!
Are you ready?
(Am I??)
OK, friends, here goes!
Bronze--Laura Muir
Silver--Brenda Martinez
Gold--Jenny Simpson
So where, you ask is the American Record holder, Shannon Rowbury?
Where are Faith Kipyegon, Dawit Seyaum, Mo Friggin' Foster, Sifan Hassan, Meraf Bahta, and Laura Weightman??
And where in the EFFing world is (trumpets, please!) GENZEBE DIBABA???
Well, first, unless you've been living on a deserted island somewhere for the past few months, then you know GD has been embroiled in her Coach's Animal House Toga Party Flush-the Dope-down-the -TOILET fiasco--and has a few dozen little question marks sitting on her shoulders!!
Okay, so it's not that apocalyptic, but it still leaves Dibaba off the podium, IMHO!!
If I've just tipped over into Happy Pills-land, then forgive me!
I may be LITERALLY certifiable seconds after the results are known!!
A slight bit seriously--Brenda DOES have the necessary wheels to kick into a medal spot!
Simpson DOES have some street cred as a rock solid Championship meet racer!
And Muir just crashed into the sub-4 world--with a vengeance!!
So they're not exactly empty threats!!
BTW, have fun watching what German teen phenom Konstanze Klosterhalfen does in her heat!
She's a notorious front-runner!!
The Meet Record should be the same post-race--so I'll give it 10-90 odds!
I'll be back---ready or not!---in a few hours with Part 2 of my Men's Preview---with the last part of my Women's Preview coming a few hours after that!!
But basically, I list the event (in order of the finals), then the OG Meet Record, followed by commentary on names to watch, who I picked for medals, and the odds of the MR being broken!!
These are the first 11 Women's finals!!
10000 (29:54.66)
What a way to kick off these Games for the Women--with maybe THE most fascinating event of the whole schedule!!
And for once, we could actually see a distance event MR going down in a major meet---no rabbits, no beer to drink between laps--and no Russians!
(Not that they'll be missed here, as the 10K isn't their specialty!!)
But Tirunesh Dibaba--the Baby-Faced Destroyer of Yore--is BACK!!
And she has a "Monster in the Closet" ready to take her down, then stomp on her pretty face!!
HER name is Almaz Ayana, and IF all the elements come into play, this could be the distance running equivalent of the Ali-Frazier Heavyweight Championship from 1974!!
But who's going to be eating the track at the finish line?
And how long will we have to wait to find out!
Ayana loves to attack with a large chunk of the race left to run---and I mean ATTACK!!
(8:19 for her last 3000 of last year's 5K!!)
If she pounces here, will---CAN---Tiru follow??
I'm giving this to Genzebe's sister, with Ayana VERY close, but with a lot more space between her and the Bronze girl, Molly Huddle!
Yes, I think Huddle's going to take 3rd--maybe in American Record time!!
This time, Emily Infeld won't be close--even though she might break 31 also!!
Watch also for Betsy Saina, Vivian Cheruiyot, Gelete Burka, and new Kenyan speedster, Alice Aprot!!
Back a ways will follow Marielle Hall, Susan Kuijken, Dominique Scott, Jess Andrews (the new British star!), and the 42 year old Jo Pavey!!
That Greek-American film star slash runner, Alexi Pappas, will find that racing for Greece won't get her to Marathon any faster!
SP (73-6.25, or 22.41)
Valerie is back!
Okay, not in full VALERIE ADAMS IS GOD dress, but close enough to promise a clean victory in Rio!
That is, unless Shot Diva Michelle Carter blows one out there, or Raven Saunders has one of her "improve 2 feet in one throw" kind of sessions!!
However much I'd LOVE for Saunders to medal, she won't!
Christine Schwanitz will follow Adams and Carter!
The only real threat to this trio is China's Lijiao Gong, and she is a REAL threat!!
Anita Marton had a good INdoor WC series, but will get swallowed up here--as will Cleopatra Borel, Yang Gao, and the 3rd American, Felicia Johnson!
The MR?
You gotta be kidding!!
Zero, baby, ZERO!!
100 (10.62)
This is a "pin the tail on the donkey" kind of field--where any of 5 or 6 women have an equal chance to win!
Elaine Thompson has 2016's fastest time--a 10.70.
English Gardner ran 10.74.
Then there's Dafne Schippers, and Tori Bowie, and Tianna Bartoletta!
Lest you think I'm blind (I am!!), I have NOT overlooked the two Acronym Women---VCB and SAFP!
Veronica Campbell-Brown just isn't in this class anymore.
And Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce has too many questions to answer!
IF the latter is healthy AND fully ready, then put her right in the mix--her long green glittery hair flowing behind her as she speeds down the track!!
But I'm giving this to the Mighty Schippers, who just has too much POWER to ignore!
Thompson gets the Silver, with Gardner owning the Bronze!
(Flip those around any way you want!!)
Michelle Lee-Ahye is one who COULD shock---at least for Bronze!
Blessing Okagbare and Muriel Ahoure are returning vets, while Ewe Swoboda and Khalifa St Fort are there for the experience.
Britain's Asha Phillip is a potential shocker!
Odds are 10-90 for a new Meet Record!
Heptathlon (7291)
No Meet Record, but it wouldn't surprise me if one, two, or even all three of the medalists got near, or over, the 7000 point wall!!
The Hyphens (NOT a 60's Motown group!!)--aka Katarina Johnson-Thompson (KJT), Brianne Thiesen-Eaton (BTE), and Jessica Ennis-Hill (JEH)--will be the medalists IMHO---and in that order!
BTW, there's two MORE Hyphens here--Laura Ikauniece-Admidina (LIA??) and Heather Miller-Koch (HMK?)!!
And both are solid back-ups to the "winners"!
In fact, this event could see several Place Records broken!
(See my Place Records posts!!)
But a Heptathlon has 7 chances to mess up!!
Just ONE bad event can end your Olympic medal dreams!
(Don't even think of fouling 3 LJ's, KJT!!)
Akela Jones, and the 2 other Americans--Kendell Williams and Barbara Nwaba--are rock solid, but not yet in the territory of the Hyphens!!
Marathon (2:23:07)
With only Mare (No Relation) Dibaba a real superstar, this race could provide ALL THREE Americans with a chance to make headlines!!
Yes, they are that good!
So I'm going WAY out on the proverbial limb, and predicting Des Linden and Amy Cragg to follow Dibaba to the finish line--with Shalane Flanagan not very far behind!!
Other Africans are good--Tigist Tufa, Jemima Sumgong, and Tirfi Tsegaye!
Any let-up by the "Gringos" will find them sweeping right by, pretty as you please!!
A couple of others to watch are Valeria Strainio, who's now Age 40!, and Sara Moreira.
Lanni Marchant is a strong Canadian, but maybe a mile or so behind the lead group!
One interesting "feature" story here is that TRIPLETS---from Estonia---are all in this race.
They are the Luik girls--Leila, Liina, and Lily!!
(Kind of like the Borlee's---who can only claim Twin-dom---and without having to carry a baton for 26.2 miles!!)
TJ (50-6, or 15.39)
Caterine Ibarguen!
Do we need anyone else?
If she doesn't win---by a BIG margin, I may quit this here predicting silliness!!
One of the clearest favorites in Rio, I gave her the Gold, no hesitation!
I also fell right in line for Olga Rypakova getting Silver.
But Bronze was where I went with blind faith--and selected Keturah Orji!!
If this were a few years ago---when 49's and even 50's were fairly common--Orji would've been left on the bench!
But the Women's TJ this year isn't very strong--with only Ibarguen, as noted, the lone standout!
So the Georgia Bulldog, aka the Collegiate and American Record holder, has a solid chance to medal!
She's technically sound, has the youth momentum factor going for her, and has been pretty consistent, both meet to meet, and in her series!!
One person I haven't mentioned---but who was VERY good INdoors--is Yulimar Rojas.
Watch for her!
The MR is safe, with close to zero odds---maybe 5-95?
HT (256-6, or 78.18)
Here's another event that ends after one person's name is printed!
Anita Wlodarczyk!
266-0 WR, with another throw of 265-3, and several others over 260!
Only one other in this field has EVER reached that barrier, and Betty Heidler is far from THAT Betty Heidler!!
In fact, it wouldn't shock me to see her having difficulty making the final!!
(It happened before!!)
While China's Zheng Wang should Silver, the American Record holding Gwen Berry has a VERY decent chance to take the Bronze!
But there are some solid vets out there, and they're all threats to Berry--or even Wang!!
They are Martina Hrasnova, Wenxiu Zhang, and Kathrin Klaas!
The other Americans--Amber Campbell and DeAnna Price--are possible finalists, but probably on the lower levels!
That Meet Record should choose burial or cremation--it's DEAD!!
100 to 0!!
3000SC (8:58.81)
That MR is the WR!!
And both (the same!) might go down!!
Ruth Chebet and Hyvin Jepkemoi, who raced to times of 8:59.97 and 9:00.01 not long ago--are here, and ready to go several seconds faster!
The woman who was 3rd behind them--in her latest American Record time of 9:10.76--Emma Coburn--is ready to knock several seconds off of HER time too!!
But probably not (yet!) in sub-9 territory!!
It's difficult to tell if they're on record pace until maybe 1800 meters, or 3 laps to go!
If they hit 1800 at 5:30 on the clock, the WR is gone!
Expect a couple of 68-70 laps from there, then an all-out low 60's!!
Many a MALE attempt at a WR fell off quickly at 2K, so that's where the women are separated from the girls!!
The other Americans, Colleen Quigley and Courtney Frerichs--both newbie Profeshes--are strong, and getting stronger, so expect them both to PR--if they're on!!
If Coburn has a bad day (She never has!!!), one of them could be the shock replacement!!
Etanesh Diro, Habiba Ghribi, Sofia Assefa, Hiwot Ayalew---all rock solid in their day---may be a bit off that level of quality---opening the door to the Americans!
Also interesting to watch are Gesa Krause, Erin Teschuk, Aisha Praught, and GenGen LaCaze!
400 (48.25)
This is the "earthquake" event!
Meaning, there's been quite the shake-up in the list of potential entrants!
NOT here are Fran McCorory, Courtney Okolo, or Sanya Richards-Ross, among the Americans!
(The first two ARE here---for Relay duty only! And SRR--newly retired--is in Rio also--ready to do NBC commentary!!)
And, needless to say, no Russians either!!
Last word heard from AF's camp is that she's in shape, NOT hurting at all, and ready for her Olympic swan song!!
We shall see!
IF the above is not just a bunch of BS, then chalk Allyson in as your Gold winner--just as I have!
I've got Shaunae Miller in 2nd, with Phyllis Francis picking up the Bronze!
Miller is VERY good---and might soon surpass Felix's PR's--but facing a "healthy" Felix in her prime is a mountain she's not quite ready to conquer!
That said, we could see both go sub-49!!
Novlene Williams-Mills, Stephanie McPherson, and Christine Day--Jamaicans all--are solid threats to the top 3.
Also keep one eye open for super vets Christine Ohuruogu and Natasha Hastings!
Taylor Ellis-Watson or Seren Bundy-Davies are good to make the final---if there's a lane open!
Pretty close to ZERO odds for the MR going down!
DT (237-2, or 72.30)
The MR is safe, with maybe a 2% chance of anyone even getting within a meter of it!
The two who have that kind of potential are Denia Caballero and Sandra Perkovic--with the latter having Gold in her future!
Perky's lost before--including to Caballero!--but she's also super reliable in Championship settings, and even at just 26, is much experienced in the stratospheric environment of an Olympic Games!
Behind those two, Julia Fischer has some big marks.
But Australia's Dani Samuels has been consistently good of late, so I'm giving her the Bronze ahead of Fischer.
Nadine Muller is another vet who will make life difficult for anyone trying to get past her!
Thus, the 3 Americans--Whitney Ashley, Shelbi Vaughan, and Kelsey Card--might have their Olympic experience ended BEFORE reaching the final!
It WOULD be nice, however, if one or two of them DID get there---even in the lower realms!!
1500 (3:53.96)
Shoot me NOW, please!!
I just wrote--for posterity's sake--my choices for Gold, Silver, and Bronze!
Are you ready?
(Am I??)
OK, friends, here goes!
Bronze--Laura Muir
Silver--Brenda Martinez
Gold--Jenny Simpson
So where, you ask is the American Record holder, Shannon Rowbury?
Where are Faith Kipyegon, Dawit Seyaum, Mo Friggin' Foster, Sifan Hassan, Meraf Bahta, and Laura Weightman??
And where in the EFFing world is (trumpets, please!) GENZEBE DIBABA???
Well, first, unless you've been living on a deserted island somewhere for the past few months, then you know GD has been embroiled in her Coach's Animal House Toga Party Flush-the Dope-down-the -TOILET fiasco--and has a few dozen little question marks sitting on her shoulders!!
Okay, so it's not that apocalyptic, but it still leaves Dibaba off the podium, IMHO!!
If I've just tipped over into Happy Pills-land, then forgive me!
I may be LITERALLY certifiable seconds after the results are known!!
A slight bit seriously--Brenda DOES have the necessary wheels to kick into a medal spot!
Simpson DOES have some street cred as a rock solid Championship meet racer!
And Muir just crashed into the sub-4 world--with a vengeance!!
So they're not exactly empty threats!!
BTW, have fun watching what German teen phenom Konstanze Klosterhalfen does in her heat!
She's a notorious front-runner!!
The Meet Record should be the same post-race--so I'll give it 10-90 odds!
I'll be back---ready or not!---in a few hours with Part 2 of my Men's Preview---with the last part of my Women's Preview coming a few hours after that!!
Rio--The Men--Part 1
The "real" Olympic Games begin tomorrow!
Meaning the 10 days of Track and Field!
All this stuff with Katie Ledecky and Beach Volleyball was just a primer!
So here we are!
But who's who, and what's what, and which Olympic Games Meet Records might be broken?
Well, I'm about to tell you!
This detailed Preview will be divided into 4 parts.
I will alternate Men and Women.
Here are the events covered in each part:
1. This part has the Men's 20K Walk, DT, LJ, 10000, 400, 100, PV, 800, TJ, HJ, 110H--11 finals, dates from August 12 to the 16th!
2. The next part has the Women's 10000, SP, 100, Heptathlon, Marathon, TJ, HT, 3000SC, 400, DT, 1500--11 finals, dates from August 12th to the 16th!
3. This includes the last 5 days of Men's finals--the 3000SC, 400H, SP, Decathlon, 200, 50K Walk, HT, 4X100 Relay, JT, 1500, 5000, 4X400 Relay, Marathon--13 finals, dating from August 17th to the 21st.
4. Part 4 has the remainder of the Women's finals--LJ, 200, 100H, JT, 400H, 20K Walk, PV, 5000, 4X100 Relay, HJ, 800, 4X400 Relay--12 finals, dating from August 17th to the 20th! (The only T&F event on the 21st is the Men's Marathon--Check the complete schedule I provided a few days ago!)
I'll list the event, the Meet Record, then some names of athletes to watch!
I will also be brave (or stupid!), and give you MY personal predictions for the Medals!
20000 Walk (1:18:46)
In the absence of the Russians, China has some of the best Walkers.
But I settled on Miguel Lopez of Spain to win, with Zhen Wang 2nd.
For Bronze, look for Canada's young Ben Thorne to shock!
(Just a gut feeling I had!)
The Meet Record could fall, as there's several Walkers with PR's of under 80 minutes here!
I'll give it 60-40 odds.
Watch also for Ding Chen, Eiki Takahashi, Daisuke Matsunaga, Cai Zelin, Germany's Chris Linke, and another who might shock, Kenya's new National Record holder, Samuel Gathimba!
DT (229-3 or 69.89)
Let's keep it in the family!
I've predicted the Brothers Harting will take 2 of the medals, with Robert getting Gold, and Christoph the Bronze.
In the middle falls Piotr Malachowski!
The elder Harting is reliable, and experienced, so the blood and thunder of Rio won't faze him when the going gets rough!
Gerd Kanter is another Vet's Vet, so beware of his attack!
Jamaica's Fedrick Dacres is improving, and might surprise.
Ehsan Hadadi, Zoltan Kivago, and America's Mason Finley are others to watch!
I'll give 40-60 odds for the MR to go!
LJ (29-2.50 or 8.90)
He's had a long season as a Collegian, often doubling and tripling, but Jarrion Lawson is solid enough that I've picked him to take the Gold!
By my thinking (Not always advisable to follow! LOL), this will see Americans going 1-2, with Jeff Henderson beating out Greg Rutherford for the Silver!
The other American--Mike Hartfield--is also a threat, as are Rushwal Samuel, Fabrice LaPierre, and Michel Torneus.
The MR will be there when the 2020 Games begin!
ZERO chance!
10000 (27:01.17)
The other day, I watched a Flotrack video where they said that if Mo Farah wins double Gold again, he'd be the Greatest of All Time!
That made me cringe!
Since I favor fast times over medals, MoBot ranks (maybe!!) in the lower half of my Top 10 GOAT candidates list!!
So maybe it's my not liking Mo's racing methods that made me place him in 2nd, with Geoff Kamworor beating him, and Yigrem Demelash taking the Bronze!
I know, I know---crazy picks!
Anyway, watch also for Ali Kaya, Paul Tanui, Josh Cheptegei, Zersenay Tadese, Tamirat Tola, and Mo Ahmed.
Oh yeah, you might want to keep your eyes peeled for a skinny dude with big ears who has a totally whacked out Coach named Alberto---goes by the name of Galen Rupp or something like that!
You could knock me over with the proverbial feather if they dip under 27 here!
Odds are 30-70, and that's probably too generous!
400 (43.49)
One of THE best events on the whole program!
LaShawn Merritt beats Wayde Van Niekerk beats Kirani James is the way I see it, with the MR given 80-20 odds of being broken!!
With 19.74 half-lap speed, Merritt will be tough to beat--if he doesn't try to run 19.74 for the first 200!!
Left behind from the gun, VN will have a tough time trying to play catch-up!
It's going to be close, with all 3 given a chance to beat the MR--and on a perfect day, to even maybe challenge the World Record of 43.18!!
Heats and semis might be fast too, but probably NOT like in Beijing last year, when some guys ran in the 43's in the heats!!
One of those--Rusheen McDonald--will be here.
Watch for him, and David Verburg, Michael Cedeno, Liguelin Santos, Baboloki Thebe, Isaac Makwela, Abdelelah Haroun, and Bralon Taplin.
The Ancient One--Chris Brown--might get another Age 37 record, but that's all!
Martyn Rooney, Javon Francis, Jon Borlee, and Steven Gardiner also have solid chances to make it at least to the Semis--and maybe beyond!
100 (9.63)
20-80 odds for this STRONG Meet Record remaining as is!
But DA MAN is here--and healthy and happy and in dancing spirits.
(If you think I'm joking, watch the video of what happened after his press conference! It'll knock you out!!)
But Usain Bolt wants to break 19 seconds for double this distance, so might not be in top 100 speed mode!
That said, he DOES have enough wheels to win, and he will!
Justin Gatlin has been roundly attacked for his former drug use---by a young American female swimmer, no less!!--so look for his nerves to be a bit rattled!
I'm thus seeing Trayvon Bromell taking Silver, with Gatlin 3rd!
He hasn't really produced as a Pro yet, but beware of Andre De Grasse.
Also watch for Marvin Bracy, Nickel Ashmeade, James Dasaolu, Femi Ogunode, Mike Rodgers, Jimmy Vicaut, Akani Simbine, and a revived Yohan Blake!
Kim Collins may not be at his 9.93 best here, and he IS 40 years of age!!
PV (19-7 or 5.97)
If the weather is good, and he makes it to the 5.90 zone unscathed, Renaud Lavillenie COULD be the last man standing---in the pit AFTER breaking the World Record!!
But even if he can't scale the highest mountain, this MR is gonna be mincemeat when Renaud walks off the field!
Odds are 95 to 5---and that's probably too LOW!!
Sam Kendricks is the best American to come along in years!
He's strong, and seemingly reliable for high bars, so I see him taking Silver.
This is Brazil, so I'm giving home field advantage to Thiago Braz Da Silva for the Bronze!
Shawn Barber has had too erratic a year for me to trust him to medal!
But if anyone can come through, it's Mr Barber!
Pawel Wojciechowski is a solid threat, as are Konstadini Filippidis, Raphael Holzdeppe, and Piotr Lisek!
800 (1:40.91)
While I see David Rudisha retaining his Gold position from London, I doubt it will be that PERFECT RACE again that we saw 4 years ago!!
Rudisha has run some fast times this year, and should prevail, even if Boris Berian sticks to his Alysia Montano race plan of gunning the first lap--something in the 49's!
Berian is tough, and I pick him to Silver, with Ayanleh Souleiman getting the Bronze!
Souleiman has the necessary speed, and the strength of a Miler!
I'm probably wrong, but I think Clay Murphy will be in over his head here.
Ahead of him should be Adam Kszczot, Abe Rotich, Ferguson Rotich, Nijel Amos, Alfred Kipketer, Taoufik Makhloufi, and Amel Tuka!
Charles Jock can be good---sometimes---but he's fallen short too many times!
Odds are less than 5, and a bit more than zero, for the MR to fall!
In other words, don't bet your last dime on it!!
TJ (59-4.25, or 18.09)
There's talk of a World Record, or at least a mid-to-high 59 for Christian Taylor.
But he seems to be pretty much alone here, so finding WR motivation in that atmosphere can be difficult!
The X Factor is PPPP--Pedro Pablo etc Pichardo!
Hasn't competed this year, and was injured last year!
Yet he's a listed entry, and has given Taylor headaches in the past.
But I'm going to take that leap---pardon the punnery!--and go with the 4P guy for Silver!
Will Claye is Taylor's friend and former teammate, and I see him taking Bronze!
Beyond those 3, I don't see too much.
But beware of Bin Dong, Marian Oprea, Ben Compaere, Fabrizio Donato, Lazaro Martinez, Nelson Evora, and the other American, Chris Benard.
And if Pichardo should fail.....!!
The MR gets 60-40 odds!
HJ (7-10, or 2.39)
Too bad these Games weren't held in 2014--the Year of the HJ!--when I would have given the MR 80-20 or even 90-10 odds of getting cracked!
As it is, it gets just 30-70 odds this year!
Yet Mutaz Barshim has been edging towards his 2014 form, when jumps of 2.40 were commonplace!
And I give him the Gold, with Erik Kynard the shock Silver, over Bogdan Bondarenko's Bronze!
BB just hasn't found the needed consistency he ALSO had 2 years ago!
Once again, not much beyond the above trio, although the Bahamas Donald Thomas surprised earlier this year by tying his 9 year old PR!!
Andrei Protsenko, Robbie Grabarz, and Derek Drouin are others to watch.
110H (12.91)
There's several guys MIA in Rio--one (Sergey Shubenkov of Russia) NOT his fault!!
Without him as a SURE medalist, I'll give them instead to Orlando Ortega, Devon Allen, and Omar McLeod--in that order!
Allen could be the big question mark, as his PR is 13.03, not in the 12's where Ortega and McLeod reside!
Lucky for Allen, it's a diluted field!
Dimitri Bascou, Ronnie Ash, Pascal Martinot-Legarde, Jeff Porter, and maybe Dayron Robles could find themselves in the final, although I'm not certain of Robles's status!
He might not even be here, even though he's on the entry list!
The MR has, at best, a 30-70 chance of even being tied!!
Okay, friends, next up is the first part of the Women's Preview!
(See above!)
Probably in a couple of hours--maybe three!
Meaning the 10 days of Track and Field!
All this stuff with Katie Ledecky and Beach Volleyball was just a primer!
So here we are!
But who's who, and what's what, and which Olympic Games Meet Records might be broken?
Well, I'm about to tell you!
This detailed Preview will be divided into 4 parts.
I will alternate Men and Women.
Here are the events covered in each part:
1. This part has the Men's 20K Walk, DT, LJ, 10000, 400, 100, PV, 800, TJ, HJ, 110H--11 finals, dates from August 12 to the 16th!
2. The next part has the Women's 10000, SP, 100, Heptathlon, Marathon, TJ, HT, 3000SC, 400, DT, 1500--11 finals, dates from August 12th to the 16th!
3. This includes the last 5 days of Men's finals--the 3000SC, 400H, SP, Decathlon, 200, 50K Walk, HT, 4X100 Relay, JT, 1500, 5000, 4X400 Relay, Marathon--13 finals, dating from August 17th to the 21st.
4. Part 4 has the remainder of the Women's finals--LJ, 200, 100H, JT, 400H, 20K Walk, PV, 5000, 4X100 Relay, HJ, 800, 4X400 Relay--12 finals, dating from August 17th to the 20th! (The only T&F event on the 21st is the Men's Marathon--Check the complete schedule I provided a few days ago!)
I'll list the event, the Meet Record, then some names of athletes to watch!
I will also be brave (or stupid!), and give you MY personal predictions for the Medals!
20000 Walk (1:18:46)
In the absence of the Russians, China has some of the best Walkers.
But I settled on Miguel Lopez of Spain to win, with Zhen Wang 2nd.
For Bronze, look for Canada's young Ben Thorne to shock!
(Just a gut feeling I had!)
The Meet Record could fall, as there's several Walkers with PR's of under 80 minutes here!
I'll give it 60-40 odds.
Watch also for Ding Chen, Eiki Takahashi, Daisuke Matsunaga, Cai Zelin, Germany's Chris Linke, and another who might shock, Kenya's new National Record holder, Samuel Gathimba!
DT (229-3 or 69.89)
Let's keep it in the family!
I've predicted the Brothers Harting will take 2 of the medals, with Robert getting Gold, and Christoph the Bronze.
In the middle falls Piotr Malachowski!
The elder Harting is reliable, and experienced, so the blood and thunder of Rio won't faze him when the going gets rough!
Gerd Kanter is another Vet's Vet, so beware of his attack!
Jamaica's Fedrick Dacres is improving, and might surprise.
Ehsan Hadadi, Zoltan Kivago, and America's Mason Finley are others to watch!
I'll give 40-60 odds for the MR to go!
LJ (29-2.50 or 8.90)
He's had a long season as a Collegian, often doubling and tripling, but Jarrion Lawson is solid enough that I've picked him to take the Gold!
By my thinking (Not always advisable to follow! LOL), this will see Americans going 1-2, with Jeff Henderson beating out Greg Rutherford for the Silver!
The other American--Mike Hartfield--is also a threat, as are Rushwal Samuel, Fabrice LaPierre, and Michel Torneus.
The MR will be there when the 2020 Games begin!
ZERO chance!
10000 (27:01.17)
The other day, I watched a Flotrack video where they said that if Mo Farah wins double Gold again, he'd be the Greatest of All Time!
That made me cringe!
Since I favor fast times over medals, MoBot ranks (maybe!!) in the lower half of my Top 10 GOAT candidates list!!
So maybe it's my not liking Mo's racing methods that made me place him in 2nd, with Geoff Kamworor beating him, and Yigrem Demelash taking the Bronze!
I know, I know---crazy picks!
Anyway, watch also for Ali Kaya, Paul Tanui, Josh Cheptegei, Zersenay Tadese, Tamirat Tola, and Mo Ahmed.
Oh yeah, you might want to keep your eyes peeled for a skinny dude with big ears who has a totally whacked out Coach named Alberto---goes by the name of Galen Rupp or something like that!
You could knock me over with the proverbial feather if they dip under 27 here!
Odds are 30-70, and that's probably too generous!
400 (43.49)
One of THE best events on the whole program!
LaShawn Merritt beats Wayde Van Niekerk beats Kirani James is the way I see it, with the MR given 80-20 odds of being broken!!
With 19.74 half-lap speed, Merritt will be tough to beat--if he doesn't try to run 19.74 for the first 200!!
Left behind from the gun, VN will have a tough time trying to play catch-up!
It's going to be close, with all 3 given a chance to beat the MR--and on a perfect day, to even maybe challenge the World Record of 43.18!!
Heats and semis might be fast too, but probably NOT like in Beijing last year, when some guys ran in the 43's in the heats!!
One of those--Rusheen McDonald--will be here.
Watch for him, and David Verburg, Michael Cedeno, Liguelin Santos, Baboloki Thebe, Isaac Makwela, Abdelelah Haroun, and Bralon Taplin.
The Ancient One--Chris Brown--might get another Age 37 record, but that's all!
Martyn Rooney, Javon Francis, Jon Borlee, and Steven Gardiner also have solid chances to make it at least to the Semis--and maybe beyond!
100 (9.63)
20-80 odds for this STRONG Meet Record remaining as is!
But DA MAN is here--and healthy and happy and in dancing spirits.
(If you think I'm joking, watch the video of what happened after his press conference! It'll knock you out!!)
But Usain Bolt wants to break 19 seconds for double this distance, so might not be in top 100 speed mode!
That said, he DOES have enough wheels to win, and he will!
Justin Gatlin has been roundly attacked for his former drug use---by a young American female swimmer, no less!!--so look for his nerves to be a bit rattled!
I'm thus seeing Trayvon Bromell taking Silver, with Gatlin 3rd!
He hasn't really produced as a Pro yet, but beware of Andre De Grasse.
Also watch for Marvin Bracy, Nickel Ashmeade, James Dasaolu, Femi Ogunode, Mike Rodgers, Jimmy Vicaut, Akani Simbine, and a revived Yohan Blake!
Kim Collins may not be at his 9.93 best here, and he IS 40 years of age!!
PV (19-7 or 5.97)
If the weather is good, and he makes it to the 5.90 zone unscathed, Renaud Lavillenie COULD be the last man standing---in the pit AFTER breaking the World Record!!
But even if he can't scale the highest mountain, this MR is gonna be mincemeat when Renaud walks off the field!
Odds are 95 to 5---and that's probably too LOW!!
Sam Kendricks is the best American to come along in years!
He's strong, and seemingly reliable for high bars, so I see him taking Silver.
This is Brazil, so I'm giving home field advantage to Thiago Braz Da Silva for the Bronze!
Shawn Barber has had too erratic a year for me to trust him to medal!
But if anyone can come through, it's Mr Barber!
Pawel Wojciechowski is a solid threat, as are Konstadini Filippidis, Raphael Holzdeppe, and Piotr Lisek!
800 (1:40.91)
While I see David Rudisha retaining his Gold position from London, I doubt it will be that PERFECT RACE again that we saw 4 years ago!!
Rudisha has run some fast times this year, and should prevail, even if Boris Berian sticks to his Alysia Montano race plan of gunning the first lap--something in the 49's!
Berian is tough, and I pick him to Silver, with Ayanleh Souleiman getting the Bronze!
Souleiman has the necessary speed, and the strength of a Miler!
I'm probably wrong, but I think Clay Murphy will be in over his head here.
Ahead of him should be Adam Kszczot, Abe Rotich, Ferguson Rotich, Nijel Amos, Alfred Kipketer, Taoufik Makhloufi, and Amel Tuka!
Charles Jock can be good---sometimes---but he's fallen short too many times!
Odds are less than 5, and a bit more than zero, for the MR to fall!
In other words, don't bet your last dime on it!!
TJ (59-4.25, or 18.09)
There's talk of a World Record, or at least a mid-to-high 59 for Christian Taylor.
But he seems to be pretty much alone here, so finding WR motivation in that atmosphere can be difficult!
The X Factor is PPPP--Pedro Pablo etc Pichardo!
Hasn't competed this year, and was injured last year!
Yet he's a listed entry, and has given Taylor headaches in the past.
But I'm going to take that leap---pardon the punnery!--and go with the 4P guy for Silver!
Will Claye is Taylor's friend and former teammate, and I see him taking Bronze!
Beyond those 3, I don't see too much.
But beware of Bin Dong, Marian Oprea, Ben Compaere, Fabrizio Donato, Lazaro Martinez, Nelson Evora, and the other American, Chris Benard.
And if Pichardo should fail.....!!
The MR gets 60-40 odds!
HJ (7-10, or 2.39)
Too bad these Games weren't held in 2014--the Year of the HJ!--when I would have given the MR 80-20 or even 90-10 odds of getting cracked!
As it is, it gets just 30-70 odds this year!
Yet Mutaz Barshim has been edging towards his 2014 form, when jumps of 2.40 were commonplace!
And I give him the Gold, with Erik Kynard the shock Silver, over Bogdan Bondarenko's Bronze!
BB just hasn't found the needed consistency he ALSO had 2 years ago!
Once again, not much beyond the above trio, although the Bahamas Donald Thomas surprised earlier this year by tying his 9 year old PR!!
Andrei Protsenko, Robbie Grabarz, and Derek Drouin are others to watch.
110H (12.91)
There's several guys MIA in Rio--one (Sergey Shubenkov of Russia) NOT his fault!!
Without him as a SURE medalist, I'll give them instead to Orlando Ortega, Devon Allen, and Omar McLeod--in that order!
Allen could be the big question mark, as his PR is 13.03, not in the 12's where Ortega and McLeod reside!
Lucky for Allen, it's a diluted field!
Dimitri Bascou, Ronnie Ash, Pascal Martinot-Legarde, Jeff Porter, and maybe Dayron Robles could find themselves in the final, although I'm not certain of Robles's status!
He might not even be here, even though he's on the entry list!
The MR has, at best, a 30-70 chance of even being tied!!
Okay, friends, next up is the first part of the Women's Preview!
(See above!)
Probably in a couple of hours--maybe three!
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Complete Rio T&F Schedule
The Track and Field portion of the Games of Rio begins in about 66 hours!
August 18
5:30A M Dec 110H (F) First 7 days begin at 9:30A Rio time!!
August 21
5:30A M Marathon F
As usual, the entire schedule is subject to last minute changes!!
If I get wind of any, I'll try to pass the info along to you!
Next posts are the Aaron K's Track and Field Record Book's official Olympic Games Previews and Meet Record Predictions.
This is the complete schedule, as posted by IAAF a few days ago!
I'll present it day-by-day, in the exact chronological order, as given.
IMPORTANT NOTES:
All times are Pacific Time.
Add 4 hours for Rio's time!
I'll use the normal shorthand---
M or W for the genders.
H or S or F for Heats, Semis, or Finals.
Q for Field Event Qualifying rounds!
(I'll put the Q Flights--A or B--in parentheses!)
(I'll put the Q Flights--A or B--in parentheses!)
For the Multis, I'll put an F by each of the 7 or 10 events, but will place the first 6 or 9 events of each in parentheses, with only the 800 and 1500 given the open F!
I may add an occasional brief comment by some events!
August 12
5:30A M DT Q (A) Let the Games begin!
5:35 W Hept 100H (F)
5:35 W Hept 100H (F)
6:05 W SP Q
6:10 M 800 H
6:50 W Hept HJ (F)
6:50 W Hept HJ (F)
6:55 M DT Q (B)
7:10 W 10000 F The first Final!!
7:55 W 100 Prelim Round (Only the 100's have these!)
10:30 M 20000 Walk F
4:30P W 1500 H
4:35 W Hept SP (F)
4:40 W HT Q (A)
5:05 M 400 H
7:10 W 10000 F The first Final!!
7:55 W 100 Prelim Round (Only the 100's have these!)
10:30 M 20000 Walk F
4:30P W 1500 H
4:35 W Hept SP (F)
4:40 W HT Q (A)
5:05 M 400 H
5:20 M LJ Q
6:00 W SP F
6:05 W Hept 200 (F) Who will lead the first day?
6:10 W HT Q (B)
6:40 W 100 H
August 13
5:30A M 100 Prelim Round (See above!)
5:40 W TJ Q
6:05 W 3000SC H
6:50 M DT F
7:00 W 400 H
7:45 W Hept LJ (F)
8:00 M 100 H
4:00P W Hept JT (F) (A)
4:20 M PV Q
4:30 M 400 S
6:40 W 100 H
August 13
5:30A M 100 Prelim Round (See above!)
5:40 W TJ Q
6:05 W 3000SC H
6:50 M DT F
7:00 W 400 H
7:45 W Hept LJ (F)
8:00 M 100 H
4:00P W Hept JT (F) (A)
4:20 M PV Q
4:30 M 400 S
4:50 M LJ F
5:00 W 100 S
5:15 W Hept JT (F) (B)
5:25 M 10000 F
6:05 M 800 S
6:35 W 100 F
6:53 W Hept 800 F
August 14
5:30A W Marathon F The only morning event!
4:30P M HJ Q
4:35 W 400 S
5:00 W 100 S
5:15 W Hept JT (F) (B)
5:25 M 10000 F
6:05 M 800 S
6:35 W 100 F
6:53 W Hept 800 F
August 14
5:30A W Marathon F The only morning event!
4:30P M HJ Q
4:35 W 400 S
4:55 W TJ F
5:00 M 100 S
5:30 W 1500 S
6:00 M 400 F
6:25 M 100 F
5:30 W 1500 S
6:00 M 400 F
6:25 M 100 F
August 15
5:30A M TJ Q
5:30A M TJ Q
5:35 W 200 H
6:25 M 3000SC H
6:40 W HT F A World Record?
6:40 W HT F A World Record?
7:15 W 3000SC F A World Record here too?
7:30 M 400H H
4:30P W DT Q (A)
4:35 M PV F
7:30 M 400H H
4:30P W DT Q (A)
4:35 M PV F
4:40 M 110H H
5:30 W 400H H The 1st test for Sydney McLaughlin!!
5:50 W DT Q (B)
6:25 M 800 F
5:30 W 400H H The 1st test for Sydney McLaughlin!!
5:50 W DT Q (B)
6:25 M 800 F
6:45 W 400 F
August 16
5:30A W 5000 H
August 16
5:30A W 5000 H
5:45 W PV Q Will all 3 Americans make the Final??
5:50 M TJ F 60-0.50???
6:30 M 1500 H
7:05 W 100H H Will anyone "crash" the party?
7:20 W DT F
7:05 W 100H H Will anyone "crash" the party?
7:20 W DT F
7:50 M 200 H
4:30P M HJ F
4:30P M HJ F
4:35 W JT Q (A)
4:40 M 110H S
5:05 W LJ Q
5:10 W 400H S
5:35 M 400H S
5:05 W LJ Q
5:10 W 400H S
5:35 M 400H S
5:50 W JT Q (B)
6:00 W 200 S
6:30 W 1500 F
6:00 W 200 S
6:30 W 1500 F
6:45 M 110H F
August 17
5:30A M Dec 100 (F)
5:40 M HT Q (A)
6:05 M 5000 H
6:35 M Dec LJ (F)
6:55 W 800 H
7:05 M HT Q (B)
August 17
5:30A M Dec 100 (F)
5:40 M HT Q (A)
6:05 M 5000 H
6:35 M Dec LJ (F)
6:55 W 800 H
7:05 M HT Q (B)
7:50 M 3000SC F
8:15 M Dec SP (F)
8:15 M Dec SP (F)
1:45P M Dec HJ (F)
4:30 M JT Q (A)
4:45 W 100H S
5:15 W LJ F
5:20 M Dec 400 (F) Is Ashton Eaton on WR pace?
5:55 M JT Q (B)
4:30 M JT Q (A)
4:45 W 100H S
5:15 W LJ F
5:20 M Dec 400 (F) Is Ashton Eaton on WR pace?
5:55 M JT Q (B)
6:00 M 200 S
6:30 W 200 F
6:55 W 100H F
6:55 W 100H F
August 18
5:30A M Dec 110H (F) First 7 days begin at 9:30A Rio time!!
5:55 M SP Q
6:00 W HJ Q
6:00 W HJ Q
6:25 M Dec DT (F) (A)
7:20 W 4X100R H Hang on to those batons, Ladies!!
7:20 W 4X100R H Hang on to those batons, Ladies!!
7:40 M Dec DT Q (B)
7:40 M 4X100R H Same for you guys!!
8:00 M 400H F
9:25 M Dec PV (F)
7:40 M 4X100R H Same for you guys!!
8:00 M 400H F
9:25 M Dec PV (F)
2:35P M Dec JT (F) (A)
3:45 M Dec JT (F) (B)
4:30 M SP F
4:45 M 1500 S
5:10 W JT F
5:15 W 800 S
3:45 M Dec JT (F) (B)
4:30 M SP F
4:45 M 1500 S
5:10 W JT F
5:15 W 800 S
5:45 M Dec 1500 F Did HE do it??
6:15 W 400H F Did SHE make it?
6:15 W 400H F Did SHE make it?
6:30 M 200 F Does the WR begin with a 19---or an 18??
August 19
4:00A M 50000 Walk F Remember, that's 8:00A Rio time!!
August 19
4:00A M 50000 Walk F Remember, that's 8:00A Rio time!!
10:30 W 20000 Walk F And this is 2:30P in Rio!!
4:30P W PV F
4:30P W PV F
4:40 W 4X400R H
5:05 M HT F
5:10 M 4X400R H
5:05 M HT F
5:10 M 4X400R H
5:40 W 5000 F
6:15 W 4X100R F Gosh, where's that silly old baton??
6:35 M 4X100R F DITTO!!
August 20
NO Morning events!!
4:30P W HJ F
4:30P W HJ F
4:55 M JT F
5:00 M 1500 F
5:15 W 800 F How many WOMEN finish this race??
5:30 M 5000 F
5:15 W 800 F How many WOMEN finish this race??
5:30 M 5000 F
6:00 W 4X400R F
6:35 M 4X400R F
6:35 M 4X400R F
August 21
5:30A M Marathon F
As usual, the entire schedule is subject to last minute changes!!
If I get wind of any, I'll try to pass the info along to you!
Next posts are the Aaron K's Track and Field Record Book's official Olympic Games Previews and Meet Record Predictions.
I'm planning FOUR of them---two for each gender!
Monday, August 8, 2016
Women's PLACE in History (Place Records)
Please refer back to my Men's post from earlier today for all the usual Rules & Regs!
Same applies here!
Briefly, however, the following is a rundown on an event's PLACE Records---meaning the best-ever for a certain Place in an event!
I'll cover ALL the events, but will emphasize the ones ON the Olympic Games schedule.
These are OUTdoor marks ONLY!!
Hope this (& the Men's) post aid in your enjoyment of the T&F portion of the Games!
100
Sixth is a 10.94!!
And 8th only slows to an 11.01.
Will all 8 finalists go under 11 this time?
The Bronze goes to Tori Bowie's 10.78 from the Trials!
200
Four make it in under 22 here--but just barely, as 21.99 is the 4th Place best!
After Gwen Torrence's 22.17 6th Place best, the marks drop to 22.33 and 22.42 for the final 2 Places!
Those are vulnerable!
In fact, ALL of these might be broken here!!
Five of the Place Records come from 1988!!
400
Sixth is 49.77.
Seventh is 50.12, but then it goes all the way down to 50.63 for 8th!
Except for that last place mark, this doesn't look at all promising!
800
As I stated in an earlier post, I will NOT honor or accept ANY marks (or "places") made by Margaret Wambui, Francine Niyonsaba, or Caster Semenya.
Thus, don't expect any Place records to fall from this event!
Even IF all the athletes in the final are WOMEN, the Records are WAY too good to be broken!!
I mean, 1:57.3 for 8th Place??!!
The NEWEST marks are from 1982!!
1000, 1 Mile, 3000, 2 Mile
Non-Olympic events!
Fifth in the 1K is 2:32.77!
8th is 2:35.93.
In the Mile, except for the Silver & Bronze, which came from a 1985 race, all of the marks come from races in 2008 and 2015!
Zola Budd (Pieterse's) 4:17.57 is the best 3rd Place mark!
Then it drops to 4:20.35 in 4th, and to 4:26.84 in 10th!
There's enough fast Women around that ALL of these marks could be smashed in ONE race!!
8:28.51 for 7th in the 3000!
8:30.00 for 8th!
10th is 8:34.18!
NOTE--I include the Chinese times from 1993 and 1997!!
In the Two Mile, it takes a 9:16.95 to tie for 5th!!
9:33.47 for 10th!
In the right race, with the right field, EVERY Place record could be SMASHED--by 10 or more seconds each!!!
1500
Because of those aforementioned Chinese times from the '90's, I have TWO Place Records lists for the 1500!!
In the China-included list, ALL of the 7 Records come from 1997---with 8th place being 3:57.83!
Without those marks, Shannon Rowbury's American Record of 3:56.29 takes the Bronze Place record!
8th is Suzy Favor Hamilton's 3:58.43 from 1998!
BTW, compare Suzy's 8th Place record with the Chinese 8th---SFH is just 0.60 slower!!
5000
Molly Huddle owns TWO Place marks in this event---for 10th and 11th!!
7th Place is 14:39.80!
Almaz Ayana's 14:21.97 takes Silver position, but then Bronze comes in almost 10 seconds slower, at 14:31.52!
12th Place needs a time of 14:50.77 to TIE!!
A post-Rio DL, perhaps??
Surely NOT in the Games themselves!!
10000
Kara Goucher's 30:55.16 from 2008 gets her the best 10th Place ever!!
12th is 31:04.55.
With Tirunesh Dibaba AND Almaz Ayana pushing the pace--and the HERD hanging on for the ride, is it possible SOME of these marks could fall??
Silver's mark is 29:56.34, while 4th is still quite fast---30:12.53!
OK, Tiru & Almaz---let 'er rip!!!
(Molly, hang on, Baby!! LOL)
Marathon
12th is 2:24:44!
(Again, I include Boston times in my lists!)
I do NOT expect a fast race in Rio---the heat, Medal-seeking over times, etc--so we'll have to wait for Berlin or Chicago to see ANY chance of Place records falling!
3000SC
Jenny (then Barringer!) Simpson's former American Record of 9:12.50 holds the 5th Place record!!
12th is 9:30.37!
Eight of the Place records come from 2009!
Ninth Place requires a 9:18.54 just to tie!!
If, if, if, if----ALL of the Place marks could go down!!
20K Walk
1:27:10 is my 6th Place record!
Without the Russians---and with the Chinese being extra careful, maybe---don't expect these Place marks to go down!
(When do the Women get a 50000 meter Walk?? I'm waiting!!!)
100H
The Records, from 2nd through 8th, are---12.37, 12.46, 12.49, 12.55, 12.62, 12.64, and 12.66!!
These are amazing Place records!!
And it would NOT shock me in the least if EVERY ONE of them were SMASHED!!!
Even withOUT the World Record holder (!!!!), and without Sally Pearson, it COULD happen!!
(Forget the fiasco of the Beijing WC!!)
400H
If Sydney McLaughlin---who just turned 17 yesterday!--matches her PR of 54.15, she'd break the SEVENTH Place record by 0.08 seconds!!
53.57 gets you just 5th!!
Then it slows to 54.04 in 6th!
54.57 is 8th---and last!!
Only Zuzana Hejnova's 7th Place mark of 54.23 is from THIS century!!
HJ
It takes a HJ of 1.97 (6-5.50) to get you 8th Place!!
(Also ties you for 7th!)
Two meters (6.6-75) is needed to match the 5th Place record!!
A full 2.03 (6-8) is needed to tie you for the Bronze record!
LJ
The Silver record is 24-1.75!!
Bronze is 23-7.50!
And you still need a 23-7.25 for 4th!
But it takes "just" 22-2.25 for 8th!!
(22-10 for 7th, however!)
The NEWEST mark is that 8th Placer---from 1990!!
TJ
Despite this being a relatively "new" event (basically dates from the '80's!), the Place Records are pretty solid!
8th requires 48=6.25---and that's just to tie!
That's 14.79 in metric!!
The 2016 roster of contenders is fairly weak, so don't expect any new marks here!
PV
This event---even withOUT the World Record holding CLEAN and INNOCENT Russian Yelena Isinbayeva!!--is SIZZLING!!
I don't keep Place Records here down to 12th, but I know that Place needs a 15-1 (4.60) just to tie!!
For 8th, it rises to 15-3.
But then it rises AGAIN for the 7th Placer--to 15-5--which happens to be Lexi Weeks's PR she achieved in the Trials!!
Silver is Fabiana Murer's 15-11 from 2015!
(Being the darling of Brazil's squad, she's hoping to avoid a "Place" record---she wants the Gold!!)
BTW, Isi does NOT hold any Place records!
(See my Men's PV remarks--about Mr Bubka!!)
SP
For the SP and the DT, I SHOULD make a list of 21st Century Place records!!
8th Place here is 66-7.
For 6th, it jumps to 67-8.25!
For Bronze, you'd need 70-0.25 just to tie!!
No mark comes after 1987!
DT
(See the SP!)
8th takes 216-4!
4th?
How about 234-2, which not even Sandra Perkovic has reached---ever!!
That's good for just 4th!!
The NEWEST marks date from 1988!
JT
Some of these marks could fall, though it's doubtful, given the lack of real depth in this event!
Forget the Silver best mark of 234-10!
The Bronze position needs 224-4 to tie!
Then it drops another 8 feet 8 inches--to 215-8 for 4th!
8th is 205-7.
HT
The HT WAS an event with real solid depth a few years ago!
And it's not necessarily the fault of the Russians that it lacks that kind of depth today!
Besides, as noted in the Men's post, throwers marks tend to fall off rather dramatically, from their early season monster throws, in Championship settings!
That said, we have Anita---as in Wlodarczyk!
But she's going to WIN, so a Place record won't be relevant for her---right??!!
It takes just 239-8 for 8th!
7th is a bit more---244-1.
Wlodarczyk actually HAS the 2nd Place record--her 257-4 from 2013!
Heptathlon
12th Place needs 6331 points to tie!
But 3rd jumps up to 6858, and 2nd to 6897!
But a pair of the Hyphen-Girls (BTE, JEH, and KJT) just might take those down!!
And the entire field has depth, so watch this event for some Place record revision!!
4X100 Relay
As with the Men's sprint Relay, the Brazilian Women hold one of the records---their 42.91 in 7th!!
Jamaica has both the Silver and Bronze Place records--one from the 20th Century, and the other from this Century!!
OG Relays usually break some Place records--and this one should be no different!
Great Britain's 42.10 gets only 4th!!
4X400 Relay
Seven different Nations hold the 7 different Place records here!!
One of them is the US---their 3:15.51 in 2nd in 1988!!
East Germany's 3:18.29---also in 1988--is the best Bronze Place mark!
8th needs a 3:27.69 to tie!
Again, expect a record or 2 to fall!!
I'll have the FULL OG Schedule posted in the next day or 2.
Following that will be a series of DETAILED Preview & Meet Record Predictions posts!
I'm planning FOUR posts--two for each gender!
These should appear the day before the T&F events begin!!
Follow the Games---by following this blog!
(Meanwhile, isn't Katie Ledecky a BEAST??!!)
Same applies here!
Briefly, however, the following is a rundown on an event's PLACE Records---meaning the best-ever for a certain Place in an event!
I'll cover ALL the events, but will emphasize the ones ON the Olympic Games schedule.
These are OUTdoor marks ONLY!!
Hope this (& the Men's) post aid in your enjoyment of the T&F portion of the Games!
100
Sixth is a 10.94!!
And 8th only slows to an 11.01.
Will all 8 finalists go under 11 this time?
The Bronze goes to Tori Bowie's 10.78 from the Trials!
200
Four make it in under 22 here--but just barely, as 21.99 is the 4th Place best!
After Gwen Torrence's 22.17 6th Place best, the marks drop to 22.33 and 22.42 for the final 2 Places!
Those are vulnerable!
In fact, ALL of these might be broken here!!
Five of the Place Records come from 1988!!
400
Sixth is 49.77.
Seventh is 50.12, but then it goes all the way down to 50.63 for 8th!
Except for that last place mark, this doesn't look at all promising!
800
As I stated in an earlier post, I will NOT honor or accept ANY marks (or "places") made by Margaret Wambui, Francine Niyonsaba, or Caster Semenya.
Thus, don't expect any Place records to fall from this event!
Even IF all the athletes in the final are WOMEN, the Records are WAY too good to be broken!!
I mean, 1:57.3 for 8th Place??!!
The NEWEST marks are from 1982!!
1000, 1 Mile, 3000, 2 Mile
Non-Olympic events!
Fifth in the 1K is 2:32.77!
8th is 2:35.93.
In the Mile, except for the Silver & Bronze, which came from a 1985 race, all of the marks come from races in 2008 and 2015!
Zola Budd (Pieterse's) 4:17.57 is the best 3rd Place mark!
Then it drops to 4:20.35 in 4th, and to 4:26.84 in 10th!
There's enough fast Women around that ALL of these marks could be smashed in ONE race!!
8:28.51 for 7th in the 3000!
8:30.00 for 8th!
10th is 8:34.18!
NOTE--I include the Chinese times from 1993 and 1997!!
In the Two Mile, it takes a 9:16.95 to tie for 5th!!
9:33.47 for 10th!
In the right race, with the right field, EVERY Place record could be SMASHED--by 10 or more seconds each!!!
1500
Because of those aforementioned Chinese times from the '90's, I have TWO Place Records lists for the 1500!!
In the China-included list, ALL of the 7 Records come from 1997---with 8th place being 3:57.83!
Without those marks, Shannon Rowbury's American Record of 3:56.29 takes the Bronze Place record!
8th is Suzy Favor Hamilton's 3:58.43 from 1998!
BTW, compare Suzy's 8th Place record with the Chinese 8th---SFH is just 0.60 slower!!
5000
Molly Huddle owns TWO Place marks in this event---for 10th and 11th!!
7th Place is 14:39.80!
Almaz Ayana's 14:21.97 takes Silver position, but then Bronze comes in almost 10 seconds slower, at 14:31.52!
12th Place needs a time of 14:50.77 to TIE!!
A post-Rio DL, perhaps??
Surely NOT in the Games themselves!!
10000
Kara Goucher's 30:55.16 from 2008 gets her the best 10th Place ever!!
12th is 31:04.55.
With Tirunesh Dibaba AND Almaz Ayana pushing the pace--and the HERD hanging on for the ride, is it possible SOME of these marks could fall??
Silver's mark is 29:56.34, while 4th is still quite fast---30:12.53!
OK, Tiru & Almaz---let 'er rip!!!
(Molly, hang on, Baby!! LOL)
Marathon
12th is 2:24:44!
(Again, I include Boston times in my lists!)
I do NOT expect a fast race in Rio---the heat, Medal-seeking over times, etc--so we'll have to wait for Berlin or Chicago to see ANY chance of Place records falling!
3000SC
Jenny (then Barringer!) Simpson's former American Record of 9:12.50 holds the 5th Place record!!
12th is 9:30.37!
Eight of the Place records come from 2009!
Ninth Place requires a 9:18.54 just to tie!!
If, if, if, if----ALL of the Place marks could go down!!
20K Walk
1:27:10 is my 6th Place record!
Without the Russians---and with the Chinese being extra careful, maybe---don't expect these Place marks to go down!
(When do the Women get a 50000 meter Walk?? I'm waiting!!!)
100H
The Records, from 2nd through 8th, are---12.37, 12.46, 12.49, 12.55, 12.62, 12.64, and 12.66!!
These are amazing Place records!!
And it would NOT shock me in the least if EVERY ONE of them were SMASHED!!!
Even withOUT the World Record holder (!!!!), and without Sally Pearson, it COULD happen!!
(Forget the fiasco of the Beijing WC!!)
400H
If Sydney McLaughlin---who just turned 17 yesterday!--matches her PR of 54.15, she'd break the SEVENTH Place record by 0.08 seconds!!
53.57 gets you just 5th!!
Then it slows to 54.04 in 6th!
54.57 is 8th---and last!!
Only Zuzana Hejnova's 7th Place mark of 54.23 is from THIS century!!
HJ
It takes a HJ of 1.97 (6-5.50) to get you 8th Place!!
(Also ties you for 7th!)
Two meters (6.6-75) is needed to match the 5th Place record!!
A full 2.03 (6-8) is needed to tie you for the Bronze record!
LJ
The Silver record is 24-1.75!!
Bronze is 23-7.50!
And you still need a 23-7.25 for 4th!
But it takes "just" 22-2.25 for 8th!!
(22-10 for 7th, however!)
The NEWEST mark is that 8th Placer---from 1990!!
TJ
Despite this being a relatively "new" event (basically dates from the '80's!), the Place Records are pretty solid!
8th requires 48=6.25---and that's just to tie!
That's 14.79 in metric!!
The 2016 roster of contenders is fairly weak, so don't expect any new marks here!
PV
This event---even withOUT the World Record holding CLEAN and INNOCENT Russian Yelena Isinbayeva!!--is SIZZLING!!
I don't keep Place Records here down to 12th, but I know that Place needs a 15-1 (4.60) just to tie!!
For 8th, it rises to 15-3.
But then it rises AGAIN for the 7th Placer--to 15-5--which happens to be Lexi Weeks's PR she achieved in the Trials!!
Silver is Fabiana Murer's 15-11 from 2015!
(Being the darling of Brazil's squad, she's hoping to avoid a "Place" record---she wants the Gold!!)
BTW, Isi does NOT hold any Place records!
(See my Men's PV remarks--about Mr Bubka!!)
SP
For the SP and the DT, I SHOULD make a list of 21st Century Place records!!
8th Place here is 66-7.
For 6th, it jumps to 67-8.25!
For Bronze, you'd need 70-0.25 just to tie!!
No mark comes after 1987!
DT
(See the SP!)
8th takes 216-4!
4th?
How about 234-2, which not even Sandra Perkovic has reached---ever!!
That's good for just 4th!!
The NEWEST marks date from 1988!
JT
Some of these marks could fall, though it's doubtful, given the lack of real depth in this event!
Forget the Silver best mark of 234-10!
The Bronze position needs 224-4 to tie!
Then it drops another 8 feet 8 inches--to 215-8 for 4th!
8th is 205-7.
HT
The HT WAS an event with real solid depth a few years ago!
And it's not necessarily the fault of the Russians that it lacks that kind of depth today!
Besides, as noted in the Men's post, throwers marks tend to fall off rather dramatically, from their early season monster throws, in Championship settings!
That said, we have Anita---as in Wlodarczyk!
But she's going to WIN, so a Place record won't be relevant for her---right??!!
It takes just 239-8 for 8th!
7th is a bit more---244-1.
Wlodarczyk actually HAS the 2nd Place record--her 257-4 from 2013!
Heptathlon
12th Place needs 6331 points to tie!
But 3rd jumps up to 6858, and 2nd to 6897!
But a pair of the Hyphen-Girls (BTE, JEH, and KJT) just might take those down!!
And the entire field has depth, so watch this event for some Place record revision!!
4X100 Relay
As with the Men's sprint Relay, the Brazilian Women hold one of the records---their 42.91 in 7th!!
Jamaica has both the Silver and Bronze Place records--one from the 20th Century, and the other from this Century!!
OG Relays usually break some Place records--and this one should be no different!
Great Britain's 42.10 gets only 4th!!
4X400 Relay
Seven different Nations hold the 7 different Place records here!!
One of them is the US---their 3:15.51 in 2nd in 1988!!
East Germany's 3:18.29---also in 1988--is the best Bronze Place mark!
8th needs a 3:27.69 to tie!
Again, expect a record or 2 to fall!!
I'll have the FULL OG Schedule posted in the next day or 2.
Following that will be a series of DETAILED Preview & Meet Record Predictions posts!
I'm planning FOUR posts--two for each gender!
These should appear the day before the T&F events begin!!
Follow the Games---by following this blog!
(Meanwhile, isn't Katie Ledecky a BEAST??!!)
Men's PLACE in History (Place Records)
My blog covers Records of all kinds--World, US, Collegiate, HS, National, Meet, Age, Class.
And Place records.
They are the records for best-ever finish in a certain Place in an event, such as best-ever 5th Place mark in the SP or 400H.
However, they've not gotten as much attention in this blog as the other Records--partly because of the nature of the beast.
It takes perfect conditions--great weather, every athlete pushing to their limits, depth of field, and all those tangible INtangibles--desire, motivation, heart---all coming together in one event in one meet at one time!
The greatest example, perhaps, was the London Olympic Games Men's 800 final--when Place Records were broken for ALL 7 of the Places behind the winner, David Rudisha!
And that leads to a question--Why does Track and Field News list the FIRST Place person in their lists of Best Place marks??
Isn't it obvious that the Winner in an event would be the WR holder??
What better FIRST Place mark can there be??
So it's redundant to list the First Placers!!
And that brings me to my Guidelines for this (and the Women's) post.
1. My T&F Record Book has only OUTdoor Records for Place. These posts are thus all about OUTdoor marks ONLY!!
2. The Number of Place Records I have vary by event. They are as follows:
Places 2 through 6 for the Walks!
Places 2 through 8 for the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1000, 100H or 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, TJ, PV, SP, DT, JT, HT, 4X100 and 4X400 Relays!
Places 2 through 10 for the 1500, 1 Mile, 3000, and 2 Mile.
Places 2 through 12 for the 5000, 10000, Marathon, 3000SC, and the Heptathlon & Decathlon!
3. Place Records can happen in ANY meet, even in the Heats or Semis or Qualifying!
4. NO wind-aided marks allowed!
The Olympic Games--and secondarily, the World Championships--normally provide MANY new Place Records!
Diamond League events offer some also.
They rarely come in meets outside of the above listed, but CAN!!
Following is my overview of MEN's Place Records.
I'll cover ALL of the events, but my focus is on those events on the Olympic Games schedule!!
I will comment on whether I see the potential for SEVERAL Place Records to be broken in an event in Rio!
I won't list all of the Records, but will mention some of the more amazing!
100
7th Place is 9.98!!
5th is 9.88!!
Best 2nd is Tyson Gay's 9.71!
Best chances are in Places 6, 7, and 8.
200
5th is 19.98!!
Not enough 200 depth this year, but 7th & 8th are vulnerable--20.25 & 20.33.
400
3rd is 43.78!
8th is 44.92.
This event is LOADED!! In the right conditions, this could be a repeat of that London 800!!
800
That London race is MILES apart from Rio's---figuratively & literally!
Would be amazing if even ONE Place record went down!!
1000, 1 Mile, 3000, 2 Mile
NOT on the Olympic program!
But 2:15.00 for 5th in the 1K!!
ALL of the 1000 Place bests come from 1999!!
SIX at 3:49.56 or faster in the Mile!!
Tenth is 3:51.12.
5th in the 3000 is 7:29.95.
8th is 7:30.84!
Third in the Two Mile is 8:07.07!
Ninth is 8:19.11.
Matt Tegenkamp holds THREE Place records in the Deuce--3rd, 5th, and 6th!!
1500
Bernard Lagat--before he became a US citizen--got the best 2nd & 3rd Place marks!!
Mo Farah has the best 4th Place mark!
Seventh is 3:29.91!!
Tenth is Centro's 3:30.40!!
Will take a Post-Rio rabbited DL race for any of these to fall!!
5000
Ken Bekele, the WR holder, also has the Best 9th Place mark!!
Eleventh Place is 12:59.21.
Oh how I WISH the Rio final would be faster than that---for Eleventh Place!!!
10000
All 11 Place marks I have are by Africans!!
Nine at 26:55.28 or faster!!
12th Place is 27:12.24.
(See my 5000 comment!)
Marathon
2:07:45 for 12th Place!!
2:06:29 for 10th!
2:04:53 for Fifth!!
(My Records here include Boston Marathon marks!!)
The Rio conditions don't call for a super fast race!
3000SC
7:57.32 for Third!!
8:05.96 for 6th!
8:12.27 for 10th, and 8:15.51 for 12th Place!!
If the pace is fast from the gun, I could see a Place or 3 or 4 going down!
20K & 50K Walks
1:17:52 for the Silver!!
1:18:07 for the Bronze!
And 1:18:55 for 6th!
NO! (Not without those Russkies! LOL)
3:38:55 for 6th in the long race!!
Again, NO!
110H
12.90, and you're just SECOND??!!
13.04 for 4th!
13.15 in 6th.
13.26 in 8th!
If everyone finishes, I could see that 8th Place record falling!
But still doubtful.
400H
47.76---faster than the fastest time run in all of 2015!!--gets you just the Best 5th Place time!!
But then, the times fall off dramatically!
48.38 for 6th, 48.57 in 7th, and 48.78 in 8th!
Despite the lack of super fast times up front, those last 3 Place Records could fall!
HJ
It takes a jump of 7-7, or 2.31, to TIE the Best 8th Place mark!!
For 6th, you better UP your game---literally!!--to 7-8, or 2.34---to tie!
And it takes a 2.38, or 7-9.75, for a tie for 4th Place best!!
Silver remains Mutaz Barshim's 2.42, or 7-11.25, from 2014!!
BTW, Barshim has a hand in THREE Place bests here--2nd & 4th all alone, while he's tied for Best at 7th!
LJ
Remember the Olympic Trials, when 7 Men went 27 feet or longer--though many of the marks were windy?
Well, in NON-windy conditions, the best 7th Place mark is---27-0---I kid you not!!
No one's gonna touch the Best 2nd Place mark--Carl Lewis's 29-1.25!!
And how about Marquis Dendy's 27-7.50 Legal best 4th Placer?
Except for that Silver mark, the rest just MIGHT be up for grabs!!
(Close that wind tunnel door!!)
TJ
It takes a TJ of 57-8.50, or 17.58, to TIE for 4th!!
And it still demands a 56-4 (17.17) to tie for 8th!!
Without Tamgho and Pichardo (?), getting Place Records here will be difficult!
PV
It takes a Vault of 19-0.75 (5.81) to tie for 8th Place!
The Men's PV is TOP-heavy, but lacking in really strong depth!
It needs a 19-2.75 for 6th just to tie!
Sergey Bubka holds ZERO Place bests---too busy WINNING!!
SP
Fifth Place is 70-0.50!!
With all the new 70 footers around, you'd think that mark would be relatively easy!
But this is the Olympics--and Championship marks tend to go DOWN--for any reason(s) you'd want to imagine!!
8th Place is "just" 67-8.25, or 20.63!
DT
Gerd Kanter holds TWO Place records! (You COULD hold ALL the Place bests---in different meets!!)
His best for 2nd is 232-8, while his best 4th is 225-1.
From there, the drop-off is HUGE---to 220-1 in 5th, and down to 214-11 in 8th!!
JT
290-9 (88.62) gets you just 4th here!
Fifth is 87.13 (285-10).
It takes 275-1 (83.85) to tie for 8th Place!
This event is FLYING (sic!), so we could see a place mark or three being broken in Rio!
HT
281-3 for Silver??!!
OhReally!
But then it drops to 272-11 for bronze, and 267-7 for the dreaded 4th!
It's 261-4 for 8th, but I doubt many (if any!) Records will fall here!
Decathlon
8314 points in 12th Place, folks!!
8443 for 8th, and 8548 for 6th!
That's incredible depth!
With Ashton Eaton's (Meet, World??) record leading the way, we could see a few place bests falling!
Erik Nool has a pair of Place records---for 3rd and 6th!
4X100 Relay
Brazil---!!!---has the best mark for 4th Place--their 37.99 in 2007!
Japan has Place 5 with 38.03.
After that, the times drop some--to 38.31 in 6th, and 38.61 for 8th!
Seven different Nations hold the 7 available Place marks!!
(The USA isn't among them---too busy winning---or DNF'ing!! LOL)
4X400 Relay
Same as in the sprint Relay (See above!), no one Nation holds more than one Place mark!!
Fifth Place is 2:59.37!!
Australia's 3:00.02 for 6th came in 2008.
Ireland's 3:01.26 is the Best 8th Place mark!!
Overall, expect a good number of Place Records to fall in the Men's events!
There is precedence for this, and I expect the tradition to continue!
Know one thing---EVERY Place Record broken (or tied!) in Rio WILL be reported in my Blog!!
Stick around for my Women's report!!
Coming in a few short hours!
And Place records.
They are the records for best-ever finish in a certain Place in an event, such as best-ever 5th Place mark in the SP or 400H.
However, they've not gotten as much attention in this blog as the other Records--partly because of the nature of the beast.
It takes perfect conditions--great weather, every athlete pushing to their limits, depth of field, and all those tangible INtangibles--desire, motivation, heart---all coming together in one event in one meet at one time!
The greatest example, perhaps, was the London Olympic Games Men's 800 final--when Place Records were broken for ALL 7 of the Places behind the winner, David Rudisha!
And that leads to a question--Why does Track and Field News list the FIRST Place person in their lists of Best Place marks??
Isn't it obvious that the Winner in an event would be the WR holder??
What better FIRST Place mark can there be??
So it's redundant to list the First Placers!!
And that brings me to my Guidelines for this (and the Women's) post.
1. My T&F Record Book has only OUTdoor Records for Place. These posts are thus all about OUTdoor marks ONLY!!
2. The Number of Place Records I have vary by event. They are as follows:
Places 2 through 6 for the Walks!
Places 2 through 8 for the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1000, 100H or 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, TJ, PV, SP, DT, JT, HT, 4X100 and 4X400 Relays!
Places 2 through 10 for the 1500, 1 Mile, 3000, and 2 Mile.
Places 2 through 12 for the 5000, 10000, Marathon, 3000SC, and the Heptathlon & Decathlon!
3. Place Records can happen in ANY meet, even in the Heats or Semis or Qualifying!
4. NO wind-aided marks allowed!
The Olympic Games--and secondarily, the World Championships--normally provide MANY new Place Records!
Diamond League events offer some also.
They rarely come in meets outside of the above listed, but CAN!!
Following is my overview of MEN's Place Records.
I'll cover ALL of the events, but my focus is on those events on the Olympic Games schedule!!
I will comment on whether I see the potential for SEVERAL Place Records to be broken in an event in Rio!
I won't list all of the Records, but will mention some of the more amazing!
100
7th Place is 9.98!!
5th is 9.88!!
Best 2nd is Tyson Gay's 9.71!
Best chances are in Places 6, 7, and 8.
200
5th is 19.98!!
Not enough 200 depth this year, but 7th & 8th are vulnerable--20.25 & 20.33.
400
3rd is 43.78!
8th is 44.92.
This event is LOADED!! In the right conditions, this could be a repeat of that London 800!!
800
That London race is MILES apart from Rio's---figuratively & literally!
Would be amazing if even ONE Place record went down!!
1000, 1 Mile, 3000, 2 Mile
NOT on the Olympic program!
But 2:15.00 for 5th in the 1K!!
ALL of the 1000 Place bests come from 1999!!
SIX at 3:49.56 or faster in the Mile!!
Tenth is 3:51.12.
5th in the 3000 is 7:29.95.
8th is 7:30.84!
Third in the Two Mile is 8:07.07!
Ninth is 8:19.11.
Matt Tegenkamp holds THREE Place records in the Deuce--3rd, 5th, and 6th!!
1500
Bernard Lagat--before he became a US citizen--got the best 2nd & 3rd Place marks!!
Mo Farah has the best 4th Place mark!
Seventh is 3:29.91!!
Tenth is Centro's 3:30.40!!
Will take a Post-Rio rabbited DL race for any of these to fall!!
5000
Ken Bekele, the WR holder, also has the Best 9th Place mark!!
Eleventh Place is 12:59.21.
Oh how I WISH the Rio final would be faster than that---for Eleventh Place!!!
10000
All 11 Place marks I have are by Africans!!
Nine at 26:55.28 or faster!!
12th Place is 27:12.24.
(See my 5000 comment!)
Marathon
2:07:45 for 12th Place!!
2:06:29 for 10th!
2:04:53 for Fifth!!
(My Records here include Boston Marathon marks!!)
The Rio conditions don't call for a super fast race!
3000SC
7:57.32 for Third!!
8:05.96 for 6th!
8:12.27 for 10th, and 8:15.51 for 12th Place!!
If the pace is fast from the gun, I could see a Place or 3 or 4 going down!
20K & 50K Walks
1:17:52 for the Silver!!
1:18:07 for the Bronze!
And 1:18:55 for 6th!
NO! (Not without those Russkies! LOL)
3:38:55 for 6th in the long race!!
Again, NO!
110H
12.90, and you're just SECOND??!!
13.04 for 4th!
13.15 in 6th.
13.26 in 8th!
If everyone finishes, I could see that 8th Place record falling!
But still doubtful.
400H
47.76---faster than the fastest time run in all of 2015!!--gets you just the Best 5th Place time!!
But then, the times fall off dramatically!
48.38 for 6th, 48.57 in 7th, and 48.78 in 8th!
Despite the lack of super fast times up front, those last 3 Place Records could fall!
HJ
It takes a jump of 7-7, or 2.31, to TIE the Best 8th Place mark!!
For 6th, you better UP your game---literally!!--to 7-8, or 2.34---to tie!
And it takes a 2.38, or 7-9.75, for a tie for 4th Place best!!
Silver remains Mutaz Barshim's 2.42, or 7-11.25, from 2014!!
BTW, Barshim has a hand in THREE Place bests here--2nd & 4th all alone, while he's tied for Best at 7th!
LJ
Remember the Olympic Trials, when 7 Men went 27 feet or longer--though many of the marks were windy?
Well, in NON-windy conditions, the best 7th Place mark is---27-0---I kid you not!!
No one's gonna touch the Best 2nd Place mark--Carl Lewis's 29-1.25!!
And how about Marquis Dendy's 27-7.50 Legal best 4th Placer?
Except for that Silver mark, the rest just MIGHT be up for grabs!!
(Close that wind tunnel door!!)
TJ
It takes a TJ of 57-8.50, or 17.58, to TIE for 4th!!
And it still demands a 56-4 (17.17) to tie for 8th!!
Without Tamgho and Pichardo (?), getting Place Records here will be difficult!
PV
It takes a Vault of 19-0.75 (5.81) to tie for 8th Place!
The Men's PV is TOP-heavy, but lacking in really strong depth!
It needs a 19-2.75 for 6th just to tie!
Sergey Bubka holds ZERO Place bests---too busy WINNING!!
SP
Fifth Place is 70-0.50!!
With all the new 70 footers around, you'd think that mark would be relatively easy!
But this is the Olympics--and Championship marks tend to go DOWN--for any reason(s) you'd want to imagine!!
8th Place is "just" 67-8.25, or 20.63!
DT
Gerd Kanter holds TWO Place records! (You COULD hold ALL the Place bests---in different meets!!)
His best for 2nd is 232-8, while his best 4th is 225-1.
From there, the drop-off is HUGE---to 220-1 in 5th, and down to 214-11 in 8th!!
JT
290-9 (88.62) gets you just 4th here!
Fifth is 87.13 (285-10).
It takes 275-1 (83.85) to tie for 8th Place!
This event is FLYING (sic!), so we could see a place mark or three being broken in Rio!
HT
281-3 for Silver??!!
OhReally!
But then it drops to 272-11 for bronze, and 267-7 for the dreaded 4th!
It's 261-4 for 8th, but I doubt many (if any!) Records will fall here!
Decathlon
8314 points in 12th Place, folks!!
8443 for 8th, and 8548 for 6th!
That's incredible depth!
With Ashton Eaton's (Meet, World??) record leading the way, we could see a few place bests falling!
Erik Nool has a pair of Place records---for 3rd and 6th!
4X100 Relay
Brazil---!!!---has the best mark for 4th Place--their 37.99 in 2007!
Japan has Place 5 with 38.03.
After that, the times drop some--to 38.31 in 6th, and 38.61 for 8th!
Seven different Nations hold the 7 available Place marks!!
(The USA isn't among them---too busy winning---or DNF'ing!! LOL)
4X400 Relay
Same as in the sprint Relay (See above!), no one Nation holds more than one Place mark!!
Fifth Place is 2:59.37!!
Australia's 3:00.02 for 6th came in 2008.
Ireland's 3:01.26 is the Best 8th Place mark!!
Overall, expect a good number of Place Records to fall in the Men's events!
There is precedence for this, and I expect the tradition to continue!
Know one thing---EVERY Place Record broken (or tied!) in Rio WILL be reported in my Blog!!
Stick around for my Women's report!!
Coming in a few short hours!
Monday, August 1, 2016
The Games of Rio
Rio is Rio de Janeiro, the 2nd largest city of Brazil.
It's not the Capital city.
That's Brasilia.
But movies have been made about this city.
Romance, sunny beaches, Carnivals, beautiful women, a long name most people know for 3 letters.
And it's where the Games of the 31st Olympiad of the Modern Olympic Games will be held, beginning August 5th, ending August 21st.
The 10 days we're most focused on are August 12th to the 21st.
The rest are mere foreplay.
Yet, as all good lovers know, foreplay is more important, and more definitive of, the sexual fireworks that follow.
Consider this post the foreplay to those 10 days of athletic competition, during when we hope there will indeed be fireworks of an historic nature., in the name of Records and Marks which exist only in people's most undefinable thoughts and dreams.
This is the passion that drives Olympian glory.
These are the inhuman strengths that propel humans to the Tops of Podiums.
This is that eternal flame lit every 4th year for the World's Greatest Athletes!
I want to direct this blog toward those incredible Records and Marks we've come to expect from every Olympic Games in the sport of Track and Field.
World, American, National, Meet, Age, Place.
(And for the few High School students competing, perhaps even more HSR's!)
But there are shadows hovering over these Games.
Dark shadows.
Regrettably, this "introductory" post will be mostly about THEM, not the sunshine, laughter, and cheers we hope to see and hear in just a few days.
As Kurt Vonnegut famously wrote (in "Slaughterhouse Five") about death and war--"So it goes.".
The Russian Ban
NO!
I am against the banning of the entire nation!
Ban the guilty, not the innocent!
It's perhaps fitting that THE most corrupt organization in the history of our sport--the IAAF--are the ones who said clean Russians can NOT compete in Rio!
Yes, let these DIRTY office-holders tell CLEAN athletes that they must stay home.
I am beyond angry or disappointed about this.
That would give respect and value to the IAAF's decision, and the process behind it.
Rather, I see nothing less than vindictiveness, cowardice, fear, and hatred in what this despicable "organization" has done!
In essence, it is nothing less than MURDER!!
And even worse, it's like a "serial killing", in that the ammo isn't aimed at the guilty, but at a RANDOM class of persons.
It's scattershot and purposeless and useless.
Will it END the use of banned substances by Athletes, whether they be Russian or British or German or American---or Brazilian?
NO!
Will it allow ALL the very BEST athletes to compete---ones we KNOW are clean, and have been PROVEN to be?
NO!
All the IAAF "decision" does is leave a shadow over the performances of athletes allowed to compete!
Yelena Isinbayeva and Darya Klishina
These are two hugely accomplished--and exotically beautiful--Russian female athletes.
Klishina has been cleared to compete in Rio--Isinbayeva has been denied!
One has been deemed "clean"--the other guilty "by association".
My opinion is that Klishina should LEAD a protest to allow Isi's participation by stating she will NOT perform!
Would the IAAF want THIS kind of embarrassment shoved in their face---and into the Media's eyes!--just days or hours before the Games open?
Sad to say, I think the IAAF doesn't give a fuck!!
Caster Semenya
I thought to title this post--"Caster-OUT!"--but didn't for 2 reasons--
I wanted to focus on more than just Semenya, and I thought the pun too "funny" for such a serious issue.
Political Correctness--or PC--has become one of the go-to terms of our century
Yet being "PC" doesn't allow us to stop Muslim terrorists from carrying bombs into airports, restaurants, nightclubs, or even sports stadia!
It doesn't allow us to build fences to keep freeloading drug addicts and wife beaters from crossing our borders.
And it doesn't let me say that Caster Semenya is NOT a "woman"--in the sense that we all KNOW and BELIEVE a WOMAN to be!!
Whatever the chemicals in Semenya's body do--or have done--to make "her" of questionable gender--does NOT make Semenya a bad person.
What it DOES do--is make Semenya ineligible to compete in any event instituted FOR WOMEN!!
The numbers set forth by whatever agencies that determine a person's "gender" aren't set in stone.
As I understand it, these numbers are "chosen" by people more or less arbitrarily--not by any ironclad, beyond any doubt set of scientifically PROVEN data!
The "bar" has been set too low.
And the stakes in Rio are too high!
Semenya--and the two known "women" who are most identified WITH "her"--Francine Niyonsaba and Margaret Wambui--must NOT be allowed to compete here!!
In that vein, my T&F Record Book, and this Blog, will NOT accept, honor, or recognize ANY Records or Marks set by the above named three!
For example, if , say, Melissa Bishop finishes 4th in the 800 behind these three, this blog will say that Bishop WON the race!!
If you want those other's times and places, ask the IAAF!
Heh.
Rule 40
I have no idea what this is about!
Sorry--I have SOME idea!
The "Rule" is that NON-Olympic sponsoring companies cannot use any of the various "Olympic" brand names, photos, or logos during a certain period leading up to, and during, the Rio Games--for fear or threat of some sort of punishment.
This of course is aimed at the "small" companies that probably---nay, CERTAINLY!--do more for the good of our sport than those fat-cat sponsors do!
In the former category fall the wonderful names of Oiselle, Brooks, Hoka One One, Skechers and others too numerous to remember!
If you're on Twitter, then you've seen some of the great (and humorous) "run arounds" this Rule that Oiselle and the others have produced!
More power to THEM!!
After all, "rules are made to be broken"!!
I don't want this to be all negative.
This is mostly a blog for "results", as it has been for the 32 months of its existence.
So, to "clean up" , allow me to offer you what will PROBABLY be the final group of results prior to the Games!
(Always hoping for last minute surprises!!)
I have a few National and Age Records to report.
Stephen Mozia EXPLODED out to 71-4.75 in the SP---about three feet past his previous PR!!--to rewrite his own National Record of Nigeria!
He remains about 9 inches short of my World DDD.
Andrei Gag's SP of 69-1.25 breaks his own National Record of Romania.
Phillip Milanov threw the Discus 224-6 to break his own National Record of Belgium.
Remgith Mahaswary TJ'ed 56-9.25 to set the National Record for India.
Lea Sprunger ran 200 meters in 22.38 for the National Record of Switzerland!
Habiba Ghribi's 9:21.35 in the 3000SC gets her the Age 32 record!
Chris Brown is at it again!!
His 45.59 at the Bahamas Championships breaks his own Age 37 record!
That race was won by Steven Gardiner's 44.46!!
In the Trinidad & Tobago Championships, Richard Thompson ran the 100 in 9.97.
Michael Cedeno's 44.45 beat Lalonde Gordon's 44.69 in the 400.
And Khalifa St Fort ran the 100 in 11.16.
Tyrese Cooper nipped his own Frosh Class record in the 200, down to 20.66!!
Then there was the Inaugural TrackTown Summer Series meet, held in Eugene.
It was a "team" championship meet, with athletes drafted for one of 4 teams, named after American Cities---Portland, San Francisco, New York, and Philadelphia.
The athletes had--in most cases--no or little ACTUAL affiliation with "their" team's city!
So it was mostly a fun meet, experimental, after a fashion, and by what its participants said afterwards, "successful".
Here's the best marks---with all winning marks being Meet Records--as the TT Summer Series plans to continue next year!
(BTW, San Francisco won the meet!!)
Jessica Tebo beat Jordan Hasay in the Road 4 Mile--which ended on the track at Hayward Field--19:49.70 to 20:07.60.
That's a pace that would give her a sub-31:00 10000, if continued!!
Sam Chelanga won the Men's race in 18:23.60, beating Chris Derrick's 18:27.70.
Melissa Bishop won again!
On a roll, the Canadian beat a good field in the 800, time of 1:59.74.
She edged Brenda Martinez's 1:59.82, and Shannon Rowbury's first-ever sub-2:00, a 1:59.97!!
Erik Sowinski took the Men's 800 over Duane Solomon, 1:45.38 to 1:45.66.
Matthew Centrowitz took 4th in 1:47.17.
Let's Run reported that Centro did one of Alberto Salazar's infamous post-race workouts--TWO more 800s---in 1:49 and 1:47!!
Donn Cabral won the 3000SC in 8:20.38, beating the 6 second PR by Mason Ferlic, time of 8:21.57.
Stephanie Garcia won a slow SC over a good field--time of 9:39.81.
Colby Alexander took a loaded 1500 in a classy PR time of 3:34.88!!
David Torrence (representing Peru!!) was 2nd in 3:34.95, followed by Ben Blankenship's 3:35.02.
Kate Grace took a competitive (read strategic) 1500 in 4:09.92, with Katie Mackey next just 0.05 seconds back, and Morgan Uceny taking 6th in 4:11.14.
Kurt Roberts won the Men's SP with his 66-3, while Brittany Smith's 61-7 took the Women's.
But what got everyone's attention was the 2nd place woman!
Jillian Camarena-Williams--former US Record holder--announced she was retiring, and that this was her final meet!
One of the All-Time greats!
A fierce battle took place in the Men's TJ between Will Claye and Omar Craddock!
Claye prevailed, his windy 57-5.75 beating Craddock's windy 57-2.
Claye had a legal mark of 57-1, better than Craddock's best legal mark of 56-1.75.
However, 3rd placer Chris Carter had a better legal mark than Craddock, a 56-4.50.
Kylie Hutson's PV of 15-1 defeated Kristin Hixson's 14-9.
Michelle Lee-Ahye ran a windy 10.98 in the 100.
Quentin Butler used the max legal wind of 2.0 for his 10.06 winner!
Andrew Riley won the main 110H race in 13.35.
But a "match-off" race between Jon Cabral of Canada and Oregon's own Devon Allen was faster, though Allen's 13.16 win was wind-aided!
Jackie Coward PR'ed to beat Queen Harrison and Jasmin Stowers in the 100H, her 12.68 edging out Queen's 12.71!
Coward misses my US list by 0.05 seconds!!
Erik Kynard HJ'ed 7-6, while Brittney Reese took the LJ with her 22-8.50!
A few "cultural" notes before I close!
The cookbook by Shalane Flanagan (and nutritionist Elyse Kopecky)--"Run Fast, Eat Slow" will be available soon on Amazon!
Becky Wade, a 2:30:41 Marathoner--wrote a memoir of a year she spent traveling--and running--around the world--"Run the World"--that sounds VERY interesting!!
Also available on Amazon!
While searching for the above 2 books, I discovered another that I look forward to buying--and reading.
It's called "Meb, Deena, and the Return of the Great American Marathoners".
It's by Tito Morales, and was just published in June!!
And yes, it's also on Amazon!
The movie "Track Town"--starring Alexi Pappas--had a hugely successful set of Premiere's---in LA and Eugene.
I'm looking forward to its finding a distributor--and its way onto a DVD!!
As for MY Book---I've done LOTS of page "re-do's"---meaning it looks a lot nicer than it did!!
I've also begun listing my Best Combined Events marks for Americans only---which I spoke about in an earlier post!
Still lots more work to do there!!
Plans for my Olympic Games coverage--
The complete Meet Schedule.
Preview posts, centered on the Meet Records, as usual!
Results!!--and LOTS of them!!
Wrap-up!
Best & Worst!!
If you want COMPLETE and DETAILED coverage, look HERE!!
See you soon!!
It's not the Capital city.
That's Brasilia.
But movies have been made about this city.
Romance, sunny beaches, Carnivals, beautiful women, a long name most people know for 3 letters.
And it's where the Games of the 31st Olympiad of the Modern Olympic Games will be held, beginning August 5th, ending August 21st.
The 10 days we're most focused on are August 12th to the 21st.
The rest are mere foreplay.
Yet, as all good lovers know, foreplay is more important, and more definitive of, the sexual fireworks that follow.
Consider this post the foreplay to those 10 days of athletic competition, during when we hope there will indeed be fireworks of an historic nature., in the name of Records and Marks which exist only in people's most undefinable thoughts and dreams.
This is the passion that drives Olympian glory.
These are the inhuman strengths that propel humans to the Tops of Podiums.
This is that eternal flame lit every 4th year for the World's Greatest Athletes!
I want to direct this blog toward those incredible Records and Marks we've come to expect from every Olympic Games in the sport of Track and Field.
World, American, National, Meet, Age, Place.
(And for the few High School students competing, perhaps even more HSR's!)
But there are shadows hovering over these Games.
Dark shadows.
Regrettably, this "introductory" post will be mostly about THEM, not the sunshine, laughter, and cheers we hope to see and hear in just a few days.
As Kurt Vonnegut famously wrote (in "Slaughterhouse Five") about death and war--"So it goes.".
The Russian Ban
NO!
I am against the banning of the entire nation!
Ban the guilty, not the innocent!
It's perhaps fitting that THE most corrupt organization in the history of our sport--the IAAF--are the ones who said clean Russians can NOT compete in Rio!
Yes, let these DIRTY office-holders tell CLEAN athletes that they must stay home.
I am beyond angry or disappointed about this.
That would give respect and value to the IAAF's decision, and the process behind it.
Rather, I see nothing less than vindictiveness, cowardice, fear, and hatred in what this despicable "organization" has done!
In essence, it is nothing less than MURDER!!
And even worse, it's like a "serial killing", in that the ammo isn't aimed at the guilty, but at a RANDOM class of persons.
It's scattershot and purposeless and useless.
Will it END the use of banned substances by Athletes, whether they be Russian or British or German or American---or Brazilian?
NO!
Will it allow ALL the very BEST athletes to compete---ones we KNOW are clean, and have been PROVEN to be?
NO!
All the IAAF "decision" does is leave a shadow over the performances of athletes allowed to compete!
Yelena Isinbayeva and Darya Klishina
These are two hugely accomplished--and exotically beautiful--Russian female athletes.
Klishina has been cleared to compete in Rio--Isinbayeva has been denied!
One has been deemed "clean"--the other guilty "by association".
My opinion is that Klishina should LEAD a protest to allow Isi's participation by stating she will NOT perform!
Would the IAAF want THIS kind of embarrassment shoved in their face---and into the Media's eyes!--just days or hours before the Games open?
Sad to say, I think the IAAF doesn't give a fuck!!
Caster Semenya
I thought to title this post--"Caster-OUT!"--but didn't for 2 reasons--
I wanted to focus on more than just Semenya, and I thought the pun too "funny" for such a serious issue.
Political Correctness--or PC--has become one of the go-to terms of our century
Yet being "PC" doesn't allow us to stop Muslim terrorists from carrying bombs into airports, restaurants, nightclubs, or even sports stadia!
It doesn't allow us to build fences to keep freeloading drug addicts and wife beaters from crossing our borders.
And it doesn't let me say that Caster Semenya is NOT a "woman"--in the sense that we all KNOW and BELIEVE a WOMAN to be!!
Whatever the chemicals in Semenya's body do--or have done--to make "her" of questionable gender--does NOT make Semenya a bad person.
What it DOES do--is make Semenya ineligible to compete in any event instituted FOR WOMEN!!
The numbers set forth by whatever agencies that determine a person's "gender" aren't set in stone.
As I understand it, these numbers are "chosen" by people more or less arbitrarily--not by any ironclad, beyond any doubt set of scientifically PROVEN data!
The "bar" has been set too low.
And the stakes in Rio are too high!
Semenya--and the two known "women" who are most identified WITH "her"--Francine Niyonsaba and Margaret Wambui--must NOT be allowed to compete here!!
In that vein, my T&F Record Book, and this Blog, will NOT accept, honor, or recognize ANY Records or Marks set by the above named three!
For example, if , say, Melissa Bishop finishes 4th in the 800 behind these three, this blog will say that Bishop WON the race!!
If you want those other's times and places, ask the IAAF!
Heh.
Rule 40
I have no idea what this is about!
Sorry--I have SOME idea!
The "Rule" is that NON-Olympic sponsoring companies cannot use any of the various "Olympic" brand names, photos, or logos during a certain period leading up to, and during, the Rio Games--for fear or threat of some sort of punishment.
This of course is aimed at the "small" companies that probably---nay, CERTAINLY!--do more for the good of our sport than those fat-cat sponsors do!
In the former category fall the wonderful names of Oiselle, Brooks, Hoka One One, Skechers and others too numerous to remember!
If you're on Twitter, then you've seen some of the great (and humorous) "run arounds" this Rule that Oiselle and the others have produced!
More power to THEM!!
After all, "rules are made to be broken"!!
I don't want this to be all negative.
This is mostly a blog for "results", as it has been for the 32 months of its existence.
So, to "clean up" , allow me to offer you what will PROBABLY be the final group of results prior to the Games!
(Always hoping for last minute surprises!!)
I have a few National and Age Records to report.
Stephen Mozia EXPLODED out to 71-4.75 in the SP---about three feet past his previous PR!!--to rewrite his own National Record of Nigeria!
He remains about 9 inches short of my World DDD.
Andrei Gag's SP of 69-1.25 breaks his own National Record of Romania.
Phillip Milanov threw the Discus 224-6 to break his own National Record of Belgium.
Remgith Mahaswary TJ'ed 56-9.25 to set the National Record for India.
Lea Sprunger ran 200 meters in 22.38 for the National Record of Switzerland!
Habiba Ghribi's 9:21.35 in the 3000SC gets her the Age 32 record!
Chris Brown is at it again!!
His 45.59 at the Bahamas Championships breaks his own Age 37 record!
That race was won by Steven Gardiner's 44.46!!
In the Trinidad & Tobago Championships, Richard Thompson ran the 100 in 9.97.
Michael Cedeno's 44.45 beat Lalonde Gordon's 44.69 in the 400.
And Khalifa St Fort ran the 100 in 11.16.
Tyrese Cooper nipped his own Frosh Class record in the 200, down to 20.66!!
Then there was the Inaugural TrackTown Summer Series meet, held in Eugene.
It was a "team" championship meet, with athletes drafted for one of 4 teams, named after American Cities---Portland, San Francisco, New York, and Philadelphia.
The athletes had--in most cases--no or little ACTUAL affiliation with "their" team's city!
So it was mostly a fun meet, experimental, after a fashion, and by what its participants said afterwards, "successful".
Here's the best marks---with all winning marks being Meet Records--as the TT Summer Series plans to continue next year!
(BTW, San Francisco won the meet!!)
Jessica Tebo beat Jordan Hasay in the Road 4 Mile--which ended on the track at Hayward Field--19:49.70 to 20:07.60.
That's a pace that would give her a sub-31:00 10000, if continued!!
Sam Chelanga won the Men's race in 18:23.60, beating Chris Derrick's 18:27.70.
Melissa Bishop won again!
On a roll, the Canadian beat a good field in the 800, time of 1:59.74.
She edged Brenda Martinez's 1:59.82, and Shannon Rowbury's first-ever sub-2:00, a 1:59.97!!
Erik Sowinski took the Men's 800 over Duane Solomon, 1:45.38 to 1:45.66.
Matthew Centrowitz took 4th in 1:47.17.
Let's Run reported that Centro did one of Alberto Salazar's infamous post-race workouts--TWO more 800s---in 1:49 and 1:47!!
Donn Cabral won the 3000SC in 8:20.38, beating the 6 second PR by Mason Ferlic, time of 8:21.57.
Stephanie Garcia won a slow SC over a good field--time of 9:39.81.
Colby Alexander took a loaded 1500 in a classy PR time of 3:34.88!!
David Torrence (representing Peru!!) was 2nd in 3:34.95, followed by Ben Blankenship's 3:35.02.
Kate Grace took a competitive (read strategic) 1500 in 4:09.92, with Katie Mackey next just 0.05 seconds back, and Morgan Uceny taking 6th in 4:11.14.
Kurt Roberts won the Men's SP with his 66-3, while Brittany Smith's 61-7 took the Women's.
But what got everyone's attention was the 2nd place woman!
Jillian Camarena-Williams--former US Record holder--announced she was retiring, and that this was her final meet!
One of the All-Time greats!
A fierce battle took place in the Men's TJ between Will Claye and Omar Craddock!
Claye prevailed, his windy 57-5.75 beating Craddock's windy 57-2.
Claye had a legal mark of 57-1, better than Craddock's best legal mark of 56-1.75.
However, 3rd placer Chris Carter had a better legal mark than Craddock, a 56-4.50.
Kylie Hutson's PV of 15-1 defeated Kristin Hixson's 14-9.
Michelle Lee-Ahye ran a windy 10.98 in the 100.
Quentin Butler used the max legal wind of 2.0 for his 10.06 winner!
Andrew Riley won the main 110H race in 13.35.
But a "match-off" race between Jon Cabral of Canada and Oregon's own Devon Allen was faster, though Allen's 13.16 win was wind-aided!
Jackie Coward PR'ed to beat Queen Harrison and Jasmin Stowers in the 100H, her 12.68 edging out Queen's 12.71!
Coward misses my US list by 0.05 seconds!!
Erik Kynard HJ'ed 7-6, while Brittney Reese took the LJ with her 22-8.50!
A few "cultural" notes before I close!
The cookbook by Shalane Flanagan (and nutritionist Elyse Kopecky)--"Run Fast, Eat Slow" will be available soon on Amazon!
Becky Wade, a 2:30:41 Marathoner--wrote a memoir of a year she spent traveling--and running--around the world--"Run the World"--that sounds VERY interesting!!
Also available on Amazon!
While searching for the above 2 books, I discovered another that I look forward to buying--and reading.
It's called "Meb, Deena, and the Return of the Great American Marathoners".
It's by Tito Morales, and was just published in June!!
And yes, it's also on Amazon!
The movie "Track Town"--starring Alexi Pappas--had a hugely successful set of Premiere's---in LA and Eugene.
I'm looking forward to its finding a distributor--and its way onto a DVD!!
As for MY Book---I've done LOTS of page "re-do's"---meaning it looks a lot nicer than it did!!
I've also begun listing my Best Combined Events marks for Americans only---which I spoke about in an earlier post!
Still lots more work to do there!!
Plans for my Olympic Games coverage--
The complete Meet Schedule.
Preview posts, centered on the Meet Records, as usual!
Results!!--and LOTS of them!!
Wrap-up!
Best & Worst!!
If you want COMPLETE and DETAILED coverage, look HERE!!
See you soon!!
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