I'm back with my first Preview since last July--for the World Juniors!
(I sort of did one for the European Champs last August--but it wasn't up to my usual standards!)
That said, THIS Preview covers both Men and Women!
I'll list the events in order of when the Finals are scheduled, for each day, separated by gender!
Also per normal, I'll list the MEET Record, which is sometimes also the World and/or American Record!
Full details of the schedule can be found on the USATF or T&FN website.
However, the first event today will be at 9:00 a.m.Pacific Time!
For tomorrow, they begin at 9:30, PT!
And for Sunday, it's 10:05 starting time (PT)!
Some of it will be on TV--check your local schedule!
Two more things--
The names I give are the likely "serious" contenders, but they are NOT predictions!!
Also, the schedule has "A" and "B" races set for some running events, from 300 to the Two Mile!
These are Sections, NOT separate races!
I'm guessing they'll combine the overall marks to decide the places!!
OK, time to get going!!
Friday, February 22
MEN
Weight Throw (84-10.25)
Conor McCullough should be favored here, but Alex Young, Daniel Haugh, and Grant Cartwright could be right there!
Also watch for Rudy Winkler!
No MR this year!!
WOMEN
Weight Throw (84-0)
Janeah Stewart got off a BIG one recently (See earlier post!), so should be favored!
But you can't dismiss the OUTdoor AR holder in the Hammer Throw--DeAnna Price!
Both COULD challenge the MR (Also the WR!!), but let's leave the odds at just 45-55!!
Also watch for Janeva Stevens and Kaitlyn Long!
Pentathlon (4805)
Let's cut to the chase--you need only know two names here!
They're Kendell Williams and Erica Bougard!
All the others are there for window dressing!
The MR should survive--unless the contenders have been hiding some secret strengths in their carry-ons!!
MR gets 20-80 odds!
Saturday, February 23
MEN
Long Jump (28-2.25)
Forget the MR, friends!!
This event is already in a weak state here in the States (pun intended!), but this group here is even weaker!!
Jarvis Gotch is really the only recognizable name here!
But watch for Malik Moffett, whose 7.92 jump is the "best" of the entrants for 2019!!
Embarrassing!!
Heptathlon (6273)
I'm surprised the MR is just 6273!
But it looks like it will remain such until 2020!
Wolf Mahler, Solomon Simmons, and Curtis Beach are the names to watch.
(I'm giving just 35-65 odds for just 6000 points, let alone the MR!!)
Two Mile Walk 12:38.37)
Nick Christie Walked the Mile in 5:55 recently, so give the MR 70-30 odds of going down!
Emmanuel Corvera will put SOME fear in Christie's mindset!
Pole Vault (19-6.50)
Even if Sam Kendricks WERE here, the MR would be pretty safe!
Give Andrew Irwin-whose recent 19-3.50 shocked some top observers of the event--the top podium spot, but NOT the MR!!
Give him 30-70 odds!
Audie Wyatt and Scott Houston are other possible 19 footers!
High Jump (7-9.75)
Give this MR ZERO chance of falling!!
(The only things to be falling here will be the BAR!!)
Jeron Robinson and Trey Culver should top the podium's top rungs!
Brad Adkins is someone to watch!
JaCorian Duffield hasn't been heard from lately!
We'll see what he has to offer!
Shot Put (72-11.25)
Ryan Crouser started his season with a 73-plus!!
Give this MR 85-15 odds!!
Joe Kovacs hasn't even reached 70 feet yet, but he's Crouser's most likely challenger!
300 (31.87)
The MR is also the WR, so give it ZERO odds!!
Brycen Spratling and Monteo Mitchell are a couple of familiar names!
(Yawn!)
Two Mile (8:26.72)
If this group can't (or doesn't) run faster than the MR---MUCH faster!---I'm gonna cry!!
In my favorite event (the Women's race also!), I want to see these dudes RUN!!
My Top 24 A-T Performers list includes EIGHT times dated from 1974 to 1985!!
Sean McGorty, Drew Hunter, Garrett Heath, Will Leer, Sam Prakel, and Eric Avila COULD eliminate SEVERAL of those ancient marks!!
Tripp Hurt is here also, as is Lawi Lalang!!
BTW, I didn't even know Mr Lalang had become an American!! He represents the US Army!!
(Who else??!!)
Odds for the MR crashing are (I have my fingers crossed and my head bent in prayer!) 95-5!!
Shoot me!
WOMEN
High Jump (6-7.50)
Just one name to list here!
Vashti, last name of Cunningham!!
If she's on, give the MR 40-60 odds!
Inika McPherson and Tynita Butts are other familiar names.
But watch for rising star (Literally?? LOL) Jelena Rowe!!
(Sure do miss Chaunte Lowe and Brigetta Barrett!!)
Long Jump (24-2.25)
BTW, that MR is held by Germany's Heike Drechsler!
In those days, foreigners could compete in the American Championships!
My policy is to say the MR is the best mark produced in the meet--even if NOT by an American!!
That said, Quanesha Burks, Kate Hall, and Kendell Williams are the key people to watch--although Williams will be coming off her Pentathlon!!
300 (36.15)
As noted above, this event will be run in sections!
Gabby Thomas seems the likely winner here, but it could be close!
Brittany Brown is running well!
Candice Hill is unpredictable,
Kayla Davis (Not to be confused with High School sensation Kamari Davis!!) is another speedster to watch!
Give Thomas 40-60 odds for the MR!
One Mile (4:25.92)
Shelby Houlihan is here!
BUT she's listed as doubling in the 2 Mile!
This probably means she won't be chasing Mary Slaney's 37 year old AR of 4:20.5!
That said, I'm giving Houlihan 80-20 odds of dipping into the 4-teens!
Colleen Quigley and Elinor Purrier could give serious chase---through 1200 meters!
Also watch for Kate Grace, Emily Lipari, Katie Mackey, Shannon Osika, and Cory McGee!!
MR gets 95-5 odds!
Sunday, February 24
MEN
One Mile (3:52.99)
Craig Engels's recent 3:54 race should make him the top name here!
But the MR is pretty safe--give it 40-60 odds!
(The air is thick with 1500/Mile fast times of late, so hopefully some of that steam will enter the Ocean Breeze at race time!!)
Sam Prakel, Eric Avila, Brannon Kidder, and John Gregorek are other names to watch.
Triple Jump (58-3.25)
Conspicuously absent are America's best, Christian Taylor and Will Claye!
(WHY???)
Chris Carter and Donald Scott should vie for the W.
But no MR--ZERO odds!
Watch for KeAndre Bates, who I haven't heard from at all this year!
600 (1:15.07)
Donavan Brazier is gonna run this!!
So say Goodbye, Farewell, Adios, and slam the door on your way out!!
Odds are 99-1.
Erik Sowinski could make it SOMEWHAT interesting--especially if he gets in front before 400!
Also watch for Chris Geisting and Charles Jones.
Sam Ellison has also had a good year so far!
1000 (2:18.60)
With Clay Murphy present, the MR gets 80-20 odds!
Robby Andrews, Abraham Alvarado, and the omnipresent Brannon Kidder are the serious names to watch!
60H (7.37)
In an event that is now fairly depleted of big names for the USA, Devon Allen stands out as the BIG name here!!
But the MR is totally safe--ZERO odds!!
(Now, if Grant Holloway were here....!!!)
Two "familiar" names ARE here, however--Trey (No relation!) Holloway, and---ahem!--Aaron Mallett!!
Heh.
60 (6.34)
That MR--and AR and WR--are safe---totally safe!!
(Why isn't Christian Coleman entered??)
John Teeters and Derrick Kemp both have seed marks of 6.55, so should be the top contenders!
Watch for Dedric Dukes, who is probably better at the 200!
WOMEN
Triple Jump (46-8.25)
Let's not waste time, space, or energy!
We have two names to watch--Keturah Orji and Tori Franklin.
Based on marks, and consistency, it could be the TJ equivalent of the Ali-Frazier duel back in the day!
I'm personally favoring Orji, but that has more to do with the sour way Franklin left Oiselle than anything related to the pair's scale of talent and potential!
The MR gets 85-15 odds!!
Pole Vault (16-5.50)
Despite the presence of the Meet Record holder, and America's Rising Star, the MR should be safe--give it 15-85 odds!
Jenn Suhr's most serious goal at the Ocean Breeze should be to erase Stacy Dragila's Age 37 record of 15-1.50.
But make it a SUHR bet (Laugh, folks, laugh!!) she'll be following Katie Nageotte over bar after bar after bar!!
(Sandi Morris is injured, the former Weeks twins are in their Conference meet, and Demi Payne is in Drug Bust Jail!!)
Still, if the top two falter, watch for Morgann LeLeux, Annie Rhodes Johnigan, Kortney Ross, and Kristin Brown.
Two Mile Walk (13:55.27)
IF--IF Taylor Ewert were here, I'd give her and Maria Michta-Coffey EQUAL chance to not just break the MR, but win the race!
But for some unknown reason, Ewert isn't entered!
Lauren Harris is, but she'll have to contend with Miranda Melville and Katie Burnett, as well as MMC!
MR odds are 40-60.
(They'd be 60-40 with Ewert in the race!!)
Shot Put (66-4.50)
Here is another MR held by a foreigner from back in the day--in this case, it's Ilona Briesenick!
(And why aren't Raven Saunders and Michelle Carter here? I know Carter got married recently, but Raven hasn't shown her face all season!!)
In their absence, we have Maggie Ewen facing a possible challenge from Chase Ealey, who produced a BIG throw recently--See a previous post!
Dani Hill (formerly Bunch), Janeah Stewart, and Janeva Stevens are other names to watch.
Meet Record is safe!
600 (1:23.84)
Georgeanne Moline, Olivia Baker, Chrishuna Williams, and Raevyn Rogers SHOULD be the top contenders, BUT....!
BUT we have Athing Mu here also!
She's a HS Junior, while the others are all "aged" Professionals!
Yet based on the year Ms Mu is experiencing, I have to think she's going to be right in the mix---given some smart strategy---which the Pro's might have more in abundance than the precocious youngster!!
That said, I give the High School Record of Sammy Watson 90-10 odds of falling!
(Interesting that Watson also went Pro recently (See earlier post!), which would make the light shine brighter on this kid than otherwise!!)
I know this post is quite long already, but I have just 4 more events to Preview, so hang in there!!
1000 (2:37.97)
This MR is GONE!!
Give it 100-0 odds!
And make Ajee Wilson the lead contender!!
Can she also get the American Record of 2:34.19, set by Jen Toomey in 2004??
Laura Roesler is having a GREAT year, and could stick with Wilson beyond 4 laps!!
Ce'Aira Brown is another to watch!
Others include Kaela Edwards and Hanna Green!
Two Mile (9:28.15)
As in the Men's race, this MR COULD go down hard!!
It might be based on what Shelby Houlihan's intentions here are--to win a double, or to win a double in RECORD times!!!
That's the 64 MILLION dollar question!!
She HAS the ability to challenge the MR, the AR, and at least the 9:10 barrier!!
Colleen Quigley and Elinor Purrier are serious contenders also returning from earlier races!!
Katie Mackey, Heather Kampf, Emily Lipari, Amanda Eccleston, and Oiselle's Marie Lawrence are all contenders--to enter my DDD list---as NONE of the entrants here are presently on that list!!
While not as ancient as the Men's list (See above!), there are 10 marks on it dated from 1979 to 1986!
Slowest time on the list is 9:45.99!!
ALL of the above listed names are capable of that time!!
(Why isn't Katelyn Tuohy entered?? She could have gone after Mary Cain's HSR of 9:38.68!!)
One HS'er that IS here is Marlee Starliper!!
She ran that 9:20 for 3K (See earlier post!), but with a field like this, she'll have an excellent chance to get under 10:00--and maybe even 9:50!!
MR odds are 80-20---unless Houlihan runs like only Houlihan can--then raise it to 100-0!!
60H (7.70)
Paraphrasing the famous song, Where Have All the American Female High Hurdlers Gone??
The only truly "historic" name here is Sharika Nelvis!
But she's shown nothing this season, and is entered in the flat 60---which final follows immediately after this one!!
But give Nelvis the nod here anyway!
Watch for Evonne Britton, who ran 7.91 recently, and Kendell Williams, who is also in the Pentathlon AND the LJ!!
MR gets 10-90 odds!!
60 (6.99)
As noted just above, Nelvis is in this event also!
But she's pretty much a non-factor here!
Give this race to Aleia Hobbs--but NOT the MR.
It gets 1-99 odds!
Shania Collins and Candace Hill are two other podium contenders!
OK, friends, that's a wrap!
Thank you so much for hanging in there, and for using this Preview as your Guide to the entire meet!!
Watch it if you can, enjoy following it, and make sure to read my detailed report soon after its close!!
See you soon!
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