I'm back!
Hope it won't be too confusing for you, me dividing up the Core Group Predictions like this!
But that 1st part really did become too long!
And with the memory of those 34 HSR's broken INdoors still clear in my mind, I want to give them my undivided attention!
Besides, predictions are predictions, no matter WHAT they're about!!
Anyway, enough gibberish!
Please refer to Part 1 for my role call of general guidelines!
Let me add one thing, however, specific to this group!
In the case of the Men's 110H, SP, DT, and HT, I am dealing with TWO sets of HSR's--the HS hurdle heights and weights, and the Professional hurdle heights and weights!
Same goes with the Men's Decathlon, where there's the HS implement record, and the Pro implement record!
I'll refer to them as, for example, 110H-HS and 110H-C, or DT-HS and DT-C.
(The "C" stands for Collegiate, which is the same everything as for Pro's!!)
High School--MEN
ZERO chance for the 100, 200, 800, 1500, Mile, 5000, 10000, HJ, LJ, TJ, DT-HS & C, JT, HT-HS & C, and Decathlon-HS & C!
Despite Tyrese Cooper's magnificent presence, and despite his opening his OUTdoor campaign with a Soph Class record of 20.55 in the 200, I see him having the best chance for a HSR in the 400!
I think he'll improve both his 100 & 200 PR's, but NOT all the way to HSR levels!
Not THIS year, at least!
But I DO feel he has the tools to FINALLY--after 35 years!--break Darrell Robinson's 44.69 HSR!!
Especially if he can get into a race against the Olympic-level Professionals!!
DJ Principe ran 4:00.97 for the INdoor Mile, but I feel he has the best chance to get the 3000 & 2 Mile records!
And there's solid back-up to chase him!
The NBIN 2 Mile was solid, but not enough there to see a threat to the 5 & 10K's.
Then there's the 3000SC!
Both of the Affolder brothers--Noah and Sam--are Steeplers!
(Sam has the Frosh Class record!!)
So while they're many seconds off Bailey Roth's 8:47 HSR, I can see them as solid threats!
Definitely sub-9:00 material!
What can Trey Cunningham do with the OUTdoor 110's?
I say he can break BOTH records--the 39 AND 42 inch heights!!
Sub 13 & sub 13.50?
Mondo!!!
The OUTdoor HSR is 18-4.75!
ONLY question remaining--Does he break that record on his 2nd or 3rd height of his first OUTdoor competition this year??
And how many times does he break his own record after that?
As for the SP's--both of them!--we COULD have a PAIR of Michael Carter record stalkers!!
Jordan Geist is the obvious choice, given his 68-4 with the 16 pound INdoor SP!
Yes, I DO see him breaking that historic 81-3.50!!
But watch for Tripp Piperi to make Geist have to work for it!!
Same goes for all the HS Relays, as it did for the other groups!!
High School--WOMEN
NO chance for the 100, 200, 3000SC, HJ, TJ, DT, JT, and Heptathlon!
(I'll talk about Candace Hill separately!!)
How fast can Sydney McLaughlin run?
She ran 51.61 INdoors, and wasn't really winded!
She has the INdoor HSR in the 300!
50.68 for the OUTdoor 400 is NOT impossible!
Neither is her erasing her own 400H record either!!
The 800 has one name to think about--Sammy Watson!
Her 2:01.78 INdoors removed ONE "Mary" from the HSR book.
Can she do the same with the OTHER "Mary" OUTdoors??
In the right conditions--given her 1:27.13 speed over 600 meters INdoors--I say YES!!
And maybe on the same track where Ms Cain ran her 1:59.51 in 2013!!
As for the 1500 and Mile marks, we need more info on the status (and plans!) of Kate Murphy!
She apparently got injured a bit INdoors, and curtailed her season!
But she still has that 4:07 1500 street cred going for her!
With that in mind, Polly Plumer's venerable HSR Mile SHOULD be doomed!!
(And Cain's 4:04.62 too!!)
Also, how fast is Brie Oakley over the Mile distance!!
We KNOW what she can do over longer distances, but I haven't a clue as to her REAL potential at the Mile!!
Give Oakley a solid chance to break the two longest track HSR's, except the 3000SC (unless she decides to take THAT up too!!).
Murphy's INdoor opener over 3000 meters was 9:14.
So I think she has sub-9:00 potential--if she's healthy!
The OUTdoor Deuce is "just" 9:53.54--NOT 9:38.68, the INdoor best!!
So either Murphy or Oakley could take several seconds off that!
I see Oakley's potential in the 5 & 10 as being in HSR territory--maybe 15:40 and 32:30!!
Will she go for them??
Tia Jones didn't show HSR ability INdoors, but she DOES hold the 100H record!
Let's see whether Chanel Brissett and Tara Davis can also get under that barrier!!
Of course, McLaughlin OWNS the 400H!
But I'd love to see her ALSO take down Lashinda Demus's 300H time of 39.98!
Demus is the only HS'er to dip under 40 seconds!
I could see Sydney dipping into the 38's!!
Tara Davis also has a few LJ'ing chits to cash in!
Can she reach Kate Hall's 22-5!
Yes, she can!
But even with her 43-2 TJ best, and having Jasmine Moore and Titiana Marsh to spur her on, I can't see any of them reaching 45 feet!!
Alyssa Wilson should remove Raven Saunder's name from the OUTdoor Record Book, the way she did INdoors!
As for the Javelin Throw, the main question is the health status of Madison Wiltrout!
If she's 100%, look for her to break her own HSR of 185-8!!
Joy McArthur threw the Hammer 203-8 last year!
She can add 11 feet to break Shelby Ashe's HSR!!
The Relay situation is the same here as elsewhere!
As for the ONLY HS PRO remaining, Candace Hill can rewrite the HS PRO record book in all 3 sprints!!
Actually, she's already established an OUTdoor 400 best, and has broken Kaylin Whitney's 200 record!!
The 100 could go down too---as it's her own!!
Alright, Dear Readers, it's on to the AGE Records!!
As usual, I'll begin with the oldest (40 & over), and work my way down to Age 30 in this post, with the remaining Ages put in Part 3!!
Both genders are mixed together in each Age category!!
40 & over
I wish Kim Collins would run just ONE serious 200 this year!
The Age record he'd be chasing is an easy one--20.64!
I mean, he could jog that in a Heat!!
(He wouldn't even have to go forward to the Semi or the Final!!)
Do it, Kim!!
As for his own Age 40 record in the 100, forget it!!
9.93 is beyond the capabilities of a human 41 years of age (as of April 5!).
Famous last words?
Fabrizio Donato has a similar problem!
He TJ'ed an awesome 55-6.50 last year after turning 40!
Can he break that mark 1 year later?
Is Mark Kiptoo retired?
If he's NOT, let's recall his 2:06:00 Marathon when 39 in 2015!
Two years later, can he beat the 2:08:38 Age record?
Of course he can!!
Age 39
NO athletes to talk about!
Age 38
Chris Brown!
He has the Age 35, 36, and 37 records!
The Age 38 space for the 400 is blank!
Run ONE race, Chris, and it's yours!!
Ruth Beitia is amazing!
She can add a second OUTdoor Age record here, as this space is blank too!!
Edna Kiplagat turns 38 on September 15th!
Just in time for the Berlin Marathon--hint, hint!!
The time she'd need is (for her) a loping 2:24:06!
Age 37
I have no idea what Kiplagat's plans are, but she'll have until September 14th to run 2:21:28 to take one second off this Age record!
She just ran a Half in NYC in 69:37 in freezing temps!
I'd say she's ready!!
Age 36
Amber Campbell threw the Hammer 242-10 in 2016 for the Age 35 record!
The Age 36 record is 237-5--and this is a WC's year!
You do the math!
But she needs to be 36 here--which she becomes on June 6th!!
Is Barbora Spotakova retired?
I can't get past the notion that I saw something to that end somewhere in recent months!
But if she's not, she may still have a tough time getting this Age record in the JT!
It's 224-2--and we should remember that Rio was won with a throw of 217-1!
Also, she needs to wait until June 30th!
Will Shalane Flanagan return to the track for a late season 10000?
Looks doubtful--as she seems to be solely a Marathoner now (and other Road distances!).
But if she finds a race, the Record is 31:07.58!
She'd have to do it AFTER July 8th, her 36th birthday!!
Same goes for the 26-2---which has a tag of 2:19:19 attached--which would be a new AR!!
Don't bet on it!!
Age 35
Those "G-Men"--Justin Gatlin and Tyson Gay--will have times of 9.97 and 20.11 to chase down (Gay only from August 9th!).
Easy marks for both--and I see who gets them as toss-ups!
Gatlin might be stressed from the antipathy shown him by anti-drug fans!
Gay has the grief of losing his 15 year old daughter to violence last year to deal with--or to motivate him!!
Amber Campbell will be 35 through June 5th!
She has her own Age 35 record to chase--242-10! (See Age 36!)
Both Marathon records are in danger!
Mary Keitany and Shalane Flanagan (until July 7th!) have a 2:21:30 to chase!
Ken Bekele (beginning July 13th) and Wilson Kipsang will go after---and should cruise to!--Haile Gebrsellassie's 2:03:59 PR--which was the first to break 2:04!!
Barbora Spotakova has it easier here than Age 36--as the JT record is 216-6!
But she has until June 29th to do it!
Two male Steeplers have question marks regarding their status as active athletes!
If NOT retired, give both PK Koech and Ezekiel Kemboi equal odds for taking down the Age record of 8:13.25!!
I'm not sure what the Age 35 record is for the Women's 400!
It got crossed out from my Book somehow!
I THINK it was in the 50's--meaning between 50 and 51 seconds!
So give Novlene Williams-Mills a clear road to this unknown mark!
Finally, we have Jenn Suhr!
Currently traveling in an RV with hubby & dog, I have no idea when she'll compete next!
But 15-11.75 should be met in her first meet!!
Age 34
Olga Saladukha has faded some from the limelight!
So TJ'ing 48-10 would be tough for her at this stage!
Her attempts--if any--need to begin June 4th!
Bershawn Jackson returned to sub-48 second 400H form in 2016!
If he remains there, then he'd need a 47.63 to get this record, beginning May 8th!
Asefa Powell is likely to fall short of the necessary 9.80 & 19.75 needed for Age 34 records in the 100 and 200!
But don't count him COMPLETELY out!!
Will Gladys Cherono race 26.2 after May 12th?
She'd need to run 2:20:21 to get this mark!
Give her half a chance!
As for Sir Mo (Farah to us serfs!!), the 2 Mile slot is empty for this Age!
Enroute, he could run 7:32.01 for a Double Dip into the Record pool!!
Age 33
A trio of distance Women have the same marks to go after!
Vivian Cheruiyot, Viola Kibiwot, and Meseret Defar have the 3000, 2 Mile, 5000, and 10000 times of 8:27.12, 9:38.38, 14:38.09, and 30:48.51 to run for!
All of them are cinches for these talented ladies!!
(If they could time the 2 Mile enroute to the 5K....!!)
Dennis Kimetto's health status is iffy, so even a time of 2:04:47 might be difficult!
Will Molly Huddle race a Marathon between August 31st, 2017, and August 30th, 2018??
If she does, that's the window she has to nail Deena Kastor's AR of 2:19:36!!
And YES, she CAN run that fast!!
Aman Wote needs to run the 1500 & Mile in 3:30.58 and 3:50.16!
He turns 33 on April 18th.
A pair of HJ'ers are in the mix for Age records here!
Donald Thomas needs a 7-8.50 sometime from July 1st on, while Chaunte Lowe has all season to reach 6-7!
Both should do it!
Habiba Ghribi needs a 9:07.32 for the 3000SC Age record!
Nicole Buchler would need a PV of 15-10!
And maybe THE most likely to get the Age record here is Caterine Ibarguen!
Her target is 48-7.50!
But what about Trey Hardee?
Beset by injuries in recent years, IF he completes another Decathlon, the score he'd want is 8340!
Watch him at USATF!
Age 32
A knowledgeable source said that Val Adams may NOT be active this year, as she wants to start a family with her new husband!
She didn't compete INdoors, and she cancelled a meet recently Down Under!
Another formidable barrier to an Age record here is the mark she'd need---68-10.75!!
Color this IMPOSSIBLE!!
I said it about INdoors, and I'll say it again here---Shannon Rowbury has MANY Age records to chase!
The 1000 (2:35.46), 1500 (3:56.65), Mile (4:17.44), 3000 (8:22.62), 2 Mile (NO mark!!), and the 5000 (14:26.17)!
And despite the Mile, 3000, and 5000 being well past the AR's, Ms Rowberry has all the tools necessary!!
Tirunesh Dibaba has a full year--beginning October 1st!--to get a Marathon time of 2:19:25!
Choose your venue, Tiru!!
Eliud Kipchoge can run a 2:04:29 in his sleep---or with a heel flap loose in his shoe!!!
So give him this mark on a Silver Platter!
Aries Merritt needs a 12.96 in the 110H's---but AFTER July 24th!!
Then there's Anita Wlodarczyk!
246-0?
Jeez!
GONE!!!
Age 31
Back to Tiru!
Ms Dibaba has until September 30th for the following--5000 in 14:32.79, 10000 in 30:13.17, and the Marathon in 2:17:42!
She's good for all of them!!
(BTW, if that 10K looks familiar, it's Molly Huddle's AR!!)
But she may have company in the 5 & 10, as Geleta Burka has the wheels also!
For her, add the 3K and Deuce times of 8:35.26 and a totally laughable 9:53.35!!
Add Jenny Simpson to the battle for the 3K, the 2 Mile, and the 5000--even though the latter mark would break the AR by about 6 seconds!!
Simpson also has a 1500 time of 3:56.91 and a Mile time of 4:23.40 to think about!!
But only from August 31st forward!
(The last DL??)
A couple of Merritt's have "merit" to go after times of 19.87 in the 200 (for LaShawn, but only from June 27th forward!) and 13.00 in 110H (Aries, but just until July 23rd!).
Why not the 400 mark for LaShawn also?
It's Michael Johnson's 43.18, and I just don't think he can do it!
Kamila Licwinko will find it tough to get over 6-8.75 in the HJ, so give her 5-95 odds!!
But Russian Ivan Ukhov need only find a venue to welcome him to make it over 7-8.75!
Tianna Bartoletta has until August 29th to LJ 23-2!
Kerron Clement has to run the 400H in 47.79.
Not unthinkable!
Galen Rupp can run sub-2:05 in the Marathon!
But can he do it in 2:03:05--and in a race after May 8th??
Give THAT one 1-99 odds!!
Ditto for a track 10000 of 26:41.58!!
Anita's here also! (See Age 32!)
But here she has her own mark of 272-3 to chase!
Do NOT bet against her--although she has to do this one by August 7th!!
Finally, there's Usain!
(If he were British, he'd be SIR Usain!! Or LORD!!!)
Anyway, IF he races AFTER the World Champs--from August 21st on--he has times of 9.85 and 19.87 to add to his collection!!
Age 30
Mr Bolt is here also---until August 20th!
9.75 and 19.74, Sir!!
Renaud Lavillenie has the INdoor WR in the PV!
Well, the OTHER WR is available too!
But it's Sergey Bubka's 20-1.75!!
Good luck, Renaud!!
Another athlete who will have a problem getting an Age record here is Sally Pearson!
The mark is 12.44, but she hasn't run that fast since fracturing her wrist!!
Jenny Simpson has most of the season (until August 22nd) to get times of 3:56.29 (1500), 4:20.34 (Mile), 8:24.41 (3000), 9:12.59 (2 Mile), and 14:23.75 (5000).
Even knowing that the 1500 is Rowbury's AR, or that the 3000 and 5000 would smash the AR's, is anyone brave enough to say she CAN'T do it??
I'm not!!
Marcin Lewandowski's targets (from June 13th forward!) are an 800 in 1:43.08, and a 1000 in 2:14.64!
Yarisley Silva is a PV'er in comeback mode!
But can she come back to a height 1 inch shy of 16 feet (from June 1st)?
At best, 50-50 odds!!
Isaac Makwela needs a 400 of 43.68!
Capable, but iffy!
Then there's Brittney Reese!
Her target is a 23-9 LJ!
Assuming she nails that distance, will we see a white flag---or a red one??
Good question with this talented woman!!
Okay, folks, that's Part 2!
The remainder of the Age Records will be in Part 3---soon!
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