2017 OUTdoor Records Predictions--Part 1

The more things change, the more they remain the same!
This might apply to the breaking (or survival!) of records--or the way I present my case for such!
As I did last OUTdoor season, I'm going to combine my Core Group Records Predictions (World, US, Collegiate, High School) with my Age Records Predictions!
But the Age Records Predictions will be written out a bit differently!
Instead of saying something like "Athlete X will go after Record Y", I may put it like this--"Athlete X has a snowball's chance in Hell to get Record Y!"!!
While not giving actual odds (40-60 or 70-30, etc), I'm going to tell you my opinion as to whether the athlete I list has a REALISTIC chance to break a record!!
Hopefully, this will make for a more entertaining read for YOU!!
(Let me know what you think!)
Well, there's LOTS to cover, so let's begin!
First, the usual guidelines!

1. The Core Group Predictions will be broken down by Group, and Gender!
2. Records I see as having ZERO possibility to be broken will only have the event listed, without any athlete's names, or commentary!
3. I may list 1 or 2 athletes who are MOST likely to break a particular record!

For the Age Records---

1.. Ages will go from "40 & Over" (Athlete can be ANY age over 40, such as 41 or 42!) down to "0 to 17" (Athlete can be 15 or 16, etc, but no older than 17!).
2. Actual birthdates are used to determine Age, not just the year alone!
3. Thus, an athlete can break TWO different Age Records in the same year---even the same weekend!!
4. I will list as many athletes as I believe--given the opportunity, health, and DESIRE!--have a GENUINE chance to break a record!  (In the past, I offered up some names that had only a "slim to none" chance to get a record.  I won't do that this year!)
5. The unforeseen (weather conditions, injury or illness, pregnancy, retirement, a HS'er or Collegian suddenly turning Pro) may determine if a record gets broken--or not!

World--MEN
NO chance for the 100, 200, 800, 1000, 1500, Mile, 3000, 2 Mile, 5000, 10000, 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, DT, JT, HT, or the Decathlon!
Wayde Van Niekerk can get his own WR in the 400, though he may concentrate on the 100 & 200 this year!
If he goes for it, he can get it!
The Marathon record should fall!
But not at the WC's!
Probably in Berlin, with the usual suspects (Wilson Kipsang, Eliud Kipchoge, Ken Bekele) given the favorites position!
(Forget a sub-2:00:00, however!!  IF it goes, should remain in the 2:02's somewhere!)
Christian Taylor might have Pablo Pichardo to challenge him again in the TJ!
If those 2 meet a few times, one of them could go 60-plus--but probably no more than 60-6!!
Renaud Lavillenie is getting older--and nearer to retirement!
He has the INdoor WR!
He might want BOTH!!
Unless Shawn Barber, Piotr Lisek--or Mondo Duplantis (Half-joking!!  Give him 2-3 more years!!) suddenly pull a "Raven Saunders" (Break their PR by a FOOT, not inches!), the odds apply ONLY to the Frenchman!
The SP record is 75-10.25 (Disputed by T&FN!).
But Joe Kovacs, for example, was said to have thrown 77 feet in practice!
Ryan Crouser and Tom Walsh are moving fast towards that mark!
It's NOT impossible!
And what about Konrad Bukowiecki, or even (3-4 years from now) Jordan Geist??
I didn't list any Relays as having "ZERO" chance--solely because I don't know who will show for the World Relays meet this year, or who Drake or Penn might attract!
(Not to mention the World Championships!!)
Let's just say that--given the right team & the perfect weather & the opportunity at the right moment--ALL of the Men's World Relay records have SOME degree of vulnerability!!

World--WOMEN
NO chance for the 100, 200, 400, 800 (Caster Semenya, Margaret Wambui, and Francine Niyonsaba NOT eligible for Records, by MY blog's rules!!), 3000, Marathon, HJ, LJ, TJ, SP, DT, JT, and Heptathlon!!
I see the 1000--given aggressive pacing (56 or 57 first lap!), 2 or more Class A athletes going at it, and perfect conditions--as having a good chance to fall!  Maybe Genzebe Dibaba vs Laura Muir vs Ajee Wilson??
G-D's 1500 WR may SEEM impregnable, but she said (then) she could run 3:47!  With Muir and Faith Kipyegon (And??) to challenge her AFTER the rabbit leaves---well, I could see it falling!
Same with the Mile!!
(The latter should be sub-4:10!!)
Will Genzebe try to get BOTH 2000 meter WR's??
I sure hope what Almaz Ayana (and Alice Aprot!) did last year wasn't a fluke!
Doesn't SEEM so!
With that in mind, the WR's in the 5000 and 10000 could go down!!
I ALMOST took Paula Radcliffe's Marathon WR off my "NO chance!" list!
Those low-65 minute Half-M's are worth a time in the 2:15's!
If the Big Girls go to Berlin, I'd give them 10-90 odds!
Without the Hard Core Gang---like I said, NO chance!!
Both Hurdles WR's can fall!
And Kendra Harrison AIN'T the only likely candidate!!
Any Woman already having run in the 12.30's could get it!
Or someone---say, Jasmine Camacho-Quinn?--advancing like wildfire could erase it in a one-off!!
The 400H WR is actually kind of weak!
Have a sub-50 flat Woman take it on, and it GOES!!
(SOMEday for Syd McLaughlin---but not this year!!)
That Pole Vault!!
(Oh, how I wish Yelena Isinbayeva weren't FORCED to retire!!!)
Bring IN SHAPE Jenn Suhr, Demi Payne, Ekaterina Stefanidi, Yarisley Silva, and Sandi Morris together, and watch that WR (NOT the bar!!!) fall!!
But 17 feet will have to wait a few years!
One name for the Hammer Throw!
ANITA!
Goodbye WR!!
Same applies for the Women's Relays as for the Men's!  See above!

United States--MEN
NO chance for the 200, 400, Mile, 10000, 110H, 400H, LJ, DT, JT, HT, and the Decathlon!
The 100 AR is 9.69!
The "G-Men" (Justin Gatlin and Tyson Gay) are too old IMO!
But what about Trayvon Bromell or Christian Coleman?
A perfect wind, a loud crowd, a medal or team position at stake---and who knows?
Johnny Gray's 800 AR is overdue to fall!
Clay Murphy, a re-stoked Duane Solomon, a HOT Boris Berian or Donavan Brazier--with maybe a "Last Shot at Glory" Nick Symmonds--- could take this baby down!!
Ditto with Rick Wohlhuter's now-43 year old 1000 mark!!
In a fast race (Monaco??), Matthew Centrowitz CAN run faster than 3:50!
3:29.30?
Yes!
It will be the "newcomers"--like Ben True, Ryan Hill, Eric Jenkins, or one of the US Army crew--who have the best chance at the 5K record!
(Maybe have Galen Rupp be the rabbit??)
Speaking of Rupp, Ryan Hall's Boston Marathon mark of 2:04:58 will be his for the taking!
Berlin, Chicago, some other fall race--the pacers going 1:27+ at 30K--and Rupp is suddenly a 2:04 Marathoner!!
I believe in Erik Kynard!!
i think he has the talent to break the AR in the HJ!
But he'll need motivation--and competition!!
The latter's been missing the past year or two!
Give him 30-70 odds!
Taylor for the TJ!
Sam Kendricks for the PV record?
(God, I wish Duplantis had chosen to stick to his American side of his DNA!!)
Unless Chris Nilsen suddenly adds a foot to his PR, it's all up to Sam!
Odds NOT good--but not impossible either!
Crouser or Kovacs for that 75-0 AR!!
This year?
60-40!  (I'm sweating!!)
Relays get the usual disclaimer!

United States--WOMEN
NADA for the 100, 200, LJ, DT, JT, and the Heptathlon!
I know, I know--that leaves a LOT of AR's "realistically" up for grabs!
Shoot me!
The 400 mark is 48.70, NOT 47.60!
With Felix in her Last Hurrah  (Maybe!!), and supported by Courtney Okolo, Phyllis Francis, and maybe a shocker or 2, it's doable!
All of the distance marks also have viable candidates!
For the 800 & 1000, it's Wilson, Kate Grace, Brenda Martinez, Alysia Montano (A TINY question as to whether she'll run seriously this year--or is even retired!!), and maybe even those SUPER Collegians--Raevyn Rogers or Jazmin Gray!!
For the 1500, Mile, 3000, 2 Mile, and even the 5000, it's Jenny Simpson and Shannon Rowberry, but so many others!!
Emma Coburn should go faster!
Sub-9:00?
Odds are 30-70 for THAT!!
Will Molly Huddle find herself in a Rio Redux 10K??
Not to mention decide to go all-out in Berlin or Chicago for Deena Kastor's Marathon AR!
(I believe Huddle would have a better chance than Shalane Flanagan at this point!)
After that NYC Half, watch for Emily Sisson too!
Both Hurdles AR's are doable!
(If the AR in the 400H is breakable, why not the WR, just 0.13 seconds faster?  Because I believe that, IF it's broken, it will be by a TINY amount!!)
Chante Lowe vs Vashti Cunningham!
Both are capable--and ready!--to get the HJ record!
60-40 odds!
Keturah Orji for her own TJ mark, and Michelle Carter for her own SP record!
(Raven Saunders MIGHT reach 65 feet this year, but won't be near the AR!!)
Gwen Berry could get HER OWN record in the Hammer Throw!
Can Maggie Ewen improve on her season-opening mind-bender?  (See a previous post!)
Will Deanna Price out-throw such as Amber Campbell?
Relays--see above!

Collegiate--MEN
ZERO chance for the 400, 3000SC, 110H, 400H, HJ, LJ, TJ, PV, SP, JT, and HT!
With a backing (LEGAL!) wind, the 100 and 200 has an ON FIRE Christian Coleman aiming squarely at both!!
And he'll have INdoor 60 speedster Kendel Williams as strong competition!
(Too bad Noah Lyles went Pro!)
Emmanuel Korir vs Isaiah Harris--the TWO guys who broke the CR in the INdoor 600!!--for the 800 mark!
As for ALL or ANY of the distances from 1500 to the 10000 (Except the 3000SC!!), Are you listening, Mr Cheserek?
If he WANTS them, he CAN get them!
Biggest question, however, might be whether he gets the opportunity!!
The DT doesn't have any really prime candidates!
BUT--the CR isn't all that great--it's 223-7!
A good wind in southern California--or Texas--and BOOM!!
The decathlon mark is 8465!
But the past few years has given us a strong and deep field of 10-eventers!
2017 should be no different!
The only barrier would be the old cliche of--With 10 events, there's 10 ways it could go wrong!
Relays get the same disclaimer.
Except for that 4XMile!
PLEASE, guys, take that one UNDER 16 minutes!!

Collegiate--WOMEN
NO chance for the 1500, 3000SC, 100H, 400H, HJ, or the DT!
Yes, another slough of "possible" CR's!!
The 100 and 200 could fall to a DUCK!!
Not those Water Waddling-types, but those FAST Women who call themselves Oregon DUCKS!!
Even that 10.78 in the 100--given those wild Eugene winds!!
One race with a 1.9 or 2.0 wind, and the CR is suddenly 10.77 or faster!
Watch for Deajah Stevens to want to amend for her INdoor DQ in the 200!!
And with a healthy Hannah Cunliffe and Ariana Washington around---!!!
Shakima Wimbley has that 36.72 in the INdoor 300, and she's gotten off to a good start OUTdoors!
That 400 mark is tough, but I can see her dipping under 50 seconds!
How FAR under is the main question!!
The aforementioned Rogers & Fray combo could duel to a CR 800!
Will "tactics" interfere?
The 3000, 5000, and 10000 all have a band of solid candidates--too many to mention!
Maybe they'll all go to Payton Jordan??
The Mile CR SHOULD be under 4:20--given Jenny's 3:59.90 in the 1500 being equivalent to 4:17!
The record's just 4:29.04, Ladies!
Give it a go, PLEASE!!
All of the best Collegiate Steeplers have graduated!
A "new" group--maybe led by Elinor Purrier?--will be taking over!
Can any of them clear the (TIME-) barriers like Courtney Frerichs did??
30-70 odds!
There was that INdoor SEC Long Jump that saw 3 Women go 22 feet or farther!
22-11.0.50 is doable---especially in a similar competition!!
Orji & Saunders are almost GIVENS to take down their own CR's in the TJ & SP!!
Will it be the 15-0 toppers Tori & Lexi Weeks--or maybe a "rookie" like Kally Long--that seem destined to rearrange the CR in the PV?
I can see 15:9 as the new record!
Sixteen feet?
I'd give THAT one 20-80 odds---and maybe even THAT is too generous!!
The JT record is good--Maggie Malone's 204-0 from last year!
I'm NOT saying she's the one, but sister Audrey Malone has gotten off to a decent start this year!!
Give it 40-60 odds!
Maggie Ewen "rust-busted" with a HT of 238-6--just INCHES from the CR!!
Heck, she's a candidate for the AMERICAN Record--let alone the Collegiate!!
Will Kendell Williams segue into Pro-dom with a going-away gift of another CR in the Hept??
Sure, why not!!
Watch for Taliyah Brooks (And....???) to give her cold sweats!
Those Relays again!
But will SOMEONE please set up an attempt at the TOTALLY obscure Collegiate Record in the 4 by Mile??
It's just 18:39 and change--or barely under 4:40 per Mile!!
An All-Star HIGH SCHOOL team could take that down!!!
At the Penn Relays, maybe??

Okay, friends, this has gone on too long!
So I'm going to put the HS Records Predictions at the top of my next post!
With that--and the Age Records--still to go, this will be a THREE-parter!!
Not sure exactly when, but I'll have both posted within the next 24 to 36 hours!!