If the title confuses you, let me explain.
This (and the following post) is meant to focus on those World, US, and HS records that date from the 20th Century--from 1999 and earlier.
(Although I'll cover ALL the records--20th and 21st Centuries!)
I am NOT doing the Collegiate Records, as their season has passed, with NO chance for more CR's this year!!
Why have the oldest records lasted as long as they have?
CAN and WILL they be broken?
Anyone active NOW that has ANY chance to break them?
Has your confusion disappeared?
Good.
I'll do the Men's records in this post, to be followed by a post for the Women!
I'll list the Year the record was set, the Number of years since it was set (in parentheses), the Record (but no names, venue, etc), then some commentary.
I'll be doing just the records I include in my T&F Record Book.
Also, these are about OUTdoor records ONLY!!
World-Men
1985 (31) 4XMile Relay--15:49.08 This one CAN be broken--easily! It's 3:57.27 per leg! Kenya, GB, and the US alone could field at least 3 teams each that could cut this baby to pieces!!
1986 (30) DT--243-0 In a CLEAN world, this record is inviolable! Just the truth!
HT--284-7 Same goes here!
1990 (26) SP--75-10.25 There's some disagreement whether this WR is valid, as Randy Barnes was banned that year for drugs. T&FN says ALL marks from a banned year don't count. Whatever the case, the "other" WR is 75-0--also VERY tough! (Joe Kovacs got the closest recently with his 74-0.25!)
1991 (25) LJ--29-4.50 With the state of the LJ nowadays, forget it!!
1992 (24) 400H--46.78 Kevin Young had a flat 400 PR of 45.11. If one of the current sub-44 guys took a shot....??
1993 (23) HJ--8-0.50 Not even in 2014, the "Year of the HJ"!! But Mutaz Barshim is back doing 2.40 jumps!! And it's an Olympic year!!
4X400 Relay--2:54.29 With all the sub 44 talent around?? Why not?!
1994 (22) PV--20-1.75 (Remember, this is the OUTdoor WR!!) Renaud Lavillenie is still making those WR attempts! And he's done it INdoors!! Shawn Barber & Sam Kendricks are fast climbing the ladder!!
1995 (21) TJ--60-0.25 Christian Taylor came within 3.50 inches of breaking it!! PPPP can do it too. (But where is he this year??) Taylor says he WANTS it!!
1996 (20) 3000--7:20.67 My "slowdown rate" theory says you add 12 seconds per 1500 to figure an elite's 3K potential! Asbel Kiprop has run 1500 in 3:26.69. Two 3:38.69's equal 7:17.38. And there's Ayanleh Souleiman, and maybe even Mo....Nahhhhh!!
JT 323-1 (Julius Yego threw it 304-5--once! I think this one will last awhile!
1997 (19) 2 Mile--7:58.61 Allow 32 seconds (with a good kick) for the final 218 meters over a 3000. Think there's anyone around who can run 7:26 for 3000? Yeah, I think there are too!!
1998 (18) 1500--3:26.00 Kiprop ran 3:26.69, and says he can go faster. I believe him! In perfect conditions, with perfect pacing...!!
1999 (17) 400--43.18 Ooooh, if only Usain Bolt would give it a go!! But Wayde Van Niekerk has sub-10 and sub-20 sprint speed. LaShawn Merritt ran 200 in 19.78 this year! WVN just ran 300 in 31.03, with LM doing 31.23! The wheels are there!!
Newer Records
2004 (12) 3000SC--7:53.63 Could go THIS year!!
5000--12:37.35 No one is willing to give this a real shot!
2005 (11) 10000--26:17.53 Ditto!
2009 (7) 100--9.58 200--19.19 Bolt SAYS he can get his 200 mark! And this is supposedly his last year....or two! And 19.26 man Yohan Blake is coming back! But odds are slim!
2012 (4) 800--1:40.91 New blood gives this one a chance--in 2 or 3 years! 110H--12.80 Omar McLeod became the first serious 110H man to go 9.99 in the 100! 4X100 Relay--36.84 Possible--if the baton makes it to the anchor's hand!!
2014 (2) Marathon--2:02:57 Eliud Kipchoge!! 4X200 Relay--1:18.63 With the World Relays returning in 2017...!! 4X1500 Relay--14:22.22 Ditto!
2015 (1) Decathlon--9045 Rio?? DMR--9:15.50 In the Bahamas, next year?
US--Men
1974 (42) 1000--2:13.9 Even if he passes 800 in 1:44.0, he'd still need a 29.8 to break this baby!! But Boris Berian and Donavan Brazier are EXCITING American newcomers!!
1975 (41) Either 75-0 or 75-10.25 are VERY tough marks! Do it CLEAN, fellas!!
1983 (33) DT--234-0 No one's been close in this century! Drugs were rampant in the '80's! Here too??
1985 (31) 800--1:42.60 Berian & Brazier!! Go for it, B & B!!
1991 (25) HJ--7-10.50 Erik Kynard has done 7-9.25. He's done it in 2 different years! But....!!
LJ--29-4.50 See my World comment!
1992 (24) 400H--46.78 Ditto.
1993 (23) 4X400 Relay--2:54.29 Same here.
1994 (22) 4X200 Relay--1:18.68 Against Jamaica in the Bahamas next year??
1996 (20) 200--19.32 If Justin Gatlin doesn't get it.....we'll have to wait until Noah Lyles matures!
HT--270-9 Lance Deal was the REAL Deal (LOL). Will Rudy Winkler get close by the 2020 Olympics??
1999 (17) 400--43.18 See my World comments!
Newer Records
2005 (11) 1500--3:29.30 Set by a transplanted Kenyan in his first year of eligibility. If Centro keeps improving...!
2006 (10) 4X800 Relay--7:02.82 Average of 1:45.7 per leg! B & B add to 3:26.89!! Add 2 more at just 1:47.96 each...!!
2007 (9) Mile--3:46.91 Off a good kick, equal to a sub-3:32 enroute! Matthew??
2 Mile--8:07.07 With OPPORTUNITY, Records CAN fall!! This one's equal to a 3K of 7:35 with a kick!
JT--299-6 With the best throwing under 280, this one might last awhile!
2008 (8) PV--19-9.75 Kendricks is rising FAST!! Another 5 inches....!!
2009 (7) 100--9.69 Trayvon Bromell is injured, and the G-Men are in their mid-30's!
2010 (6) 3000--7:29.00 That ex-Kenyan set high standards for we wimpy natives!! Nonetheless....!!
2011 (5) 5000--12:53.60 This one SHOULD have gone down already, but no one wants to RUN this distance. They prefer the 800...or 400!! Understand??
Marathon--2:04:58 A Boston time, but even so, the American 26.2 list is FAR removed from Ryan Hall's GREAT mark!! Will Galen Rupp actually seek a FAST course to do it? Berlin? London?
2012 (4) 110H--12.80 No one--not even Aries Merritt--is close!
2013 (3) 4X100 Relay--37.38 WAS 37.04 before one runner's drug bust cancelled it! So this one's relatively easy!! CLEAN, guys, CLEAN!!
2014 (2) 10000--26:44.36 Can Rupp do it again? At Pre next year? Or will Ben True step up his game a few notches?
4X1500 Relay--14:40.80 This one's EASY!! Just 3:40.20 per!! Heck, a good All-American COLLEGE team could run this!! Four Pro's?? A cinch!!
2015 (1) 3000SC--8:00.45 WHICH meet will Evan Jager break this at?? ONLY question!!
Decathlon--9045 Same as above. Will it be the OG or the OT for Mr Eaton??
DMR--9:15.50 The Bahamas....or Penn??
TJ--59-9 Mr Taylor, step right up! Oh, and add a hop and a jump too!! LOL
HS--Men
1976 (40) 10000--28:32.8 A tough record, especially when it's rare that anyone runs HALF the distance at this pace!! Nonetheless, with the distance talent around in recent years...!!
4XMile Relay--17:06.6 Yes, I KNOW Great Oak DESTROYED the 4X1600 record this year! But that was the 4X1600...NOT the 4 by MILE!! Will they give THIS distance a go at NBN??
Be a shame if they don't!
1979 (37) SP--81-3.50 & 67-9 Jordan Geist broke the Junior Class record--twice so far this year!
No one with a whole year to go has gotten this close before!! If he gets one, he MUST try for both!!
Next year, Jordan!!
1982 (34) 400--44.69 The Lyles brothers are graduating, and both are hurting. But FROSH Tyrese Cooper SHATTERED the Class record this year...and he has sprinter's speed!! If he remains an amateur....!!
1985 (31) 200--20.13 I'd thought Noah would get this one, but he's now hurt! But Ty's on the way!
4X400 Relay--3:07.40 This calls for 4 guys from the SAME school to average 46.85 per leg! Big ask!!
1996 (20) 800--1:46.45 Michael Slagowski is scheduled to run the 800 soon. He'll have Austin Tamagno to chase him! But it's a long way from 1:48.36 to 1:46.45!!
1998 (18) 4X100 Relay--39.76 Might last awhile longer!
Newer Records
2001 (15) 1500 & Mile--3:38.26 & 3:53.43 The Pre has come and gone! I don't know of any plans to chase the Mile again this year, but maybe the 1500, as the top guys might want to experience the Trials! Then there's the World Juniors too!!
DMR--9:49.78 This one had Alan Webb on its team!! Enough said!
2002 (14) 400H--49.38 Will Norman Grimes get another shot with the PRO size hurdles?
HJ--7-7 There's 2 guys over 7-4 this year! If both go to the WJC....!!
2004 (12) 5000--13:37.91 Drew Hunter SAYS he's better at longer distances! So WHY didn't he go after this at Payton Jordan?? And WHY isn't he entered in this at NBN?? You can't break a record if you don't run the distance!!
TJ--54-10.25 No one's even close! No MALE Keturah Orji's around!!
110H (42 inch)--13.74 I wonder if Grant Holloway could run this!
2008 (8) 3000--7:59.83 Will Hunter take a shot at this....and the 2 Mile?
2009 (7) 110H (39 inch)--13.08 Not this year!
LJ--26-10 Across the board, this event's weak!!
DT (Pro)--201-4 Nope!
HT (Pro)--219-7 Bobby Colantonio?? This was done by a 260 guy, so why think a 251 guy could??
SMR--3:19.58 Only chance left would be at NBN!
2010 (6) JT--255-4 No one's within 30 feet of this!!
2011 (5) 2 Mile--8:29.46 See above comment about Hunter. But Slagowski and Tamagno could get close also!!
DT (HS)--237-6 Not this group!!
Decathlon (HS)--8035 (Pro)--7524 No Nixon's to kick around at these in 2016!! (LOL) Unless Holloway gives it a go!!
4X800 Relay--7:28.75 A damn good record!! FOUR 1:52.18's!! From the SAME school!!
2013 (3) HT (HS)--260-0.50 Can Colantonio add almost TEN feet in his final meet(s)??
2014 (2) 100--10.00 Not this year. But watch to see how much Ty Cooper improves the next 3 years!!
3000SC--8:47.04 I haven't reported it yet, but the Frosh Class record was just SMASHED by over 21 seconds--to 9:16 and change! And this kid's older brother ran 9:06 in the same race!! (See my next results post!!) Given 3 more years....!!!
2016 (0) PV-18-4.75 Chris Nilsen has this record...and he wants a lot more!! NOW!! But if he doesn't get it, then Mondo Duplantis will....if he stays an amateur!!
4X1600 Relay--16:55.85 Great Oak got this record earlier this year. IF they take another shot...!! But I hope they go for the 4XMile instead!! (See above!)
I hope you enjoyed this.
Look for the Women's report in a few hours!
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