Opinions, Facts, and Hypocrisy

Katelyn Tuohy ran 16:07 on a XC course a few days ago, smashing Kelsey Chmiel's Course Record by 90 seconds, and beating the 2nd place runner by over two minutes--in her first XC race of the 2018 season!
And then the Old Windmill of opinions, facts,and hypocrisy blew its mighty winds on the Message Boards of Track & Field News & Let's Run---with the latter actually being the voice of reason and positivity, while the Old Farts at the T&FN site merely threw out their usual attacks on anyone who chose to CELEBRATE Tuohy's achievement, rather than become paranoid about her potential for injury & a short-lived career destroyed by her Record-chasing tendencies!

These folks roll out the numbers--saying it's a RARE bird who beats the odds of young phenoms who are HOT for a year or 2, then become injury-prone and-or just disappear from the scene!

And you know what?
I agree!
It IS that rare bird who keeps on keeping on--year after year, and even decade after decade.

But isn't that the case in ANY field of endeavor!
For every super successful actor, writer, musical band, artist, athlete, you have 10's of 1000's who might keep acting, writing, competing, etc--but who 99% of the populace can't even match their name to anything they might have done!

Yes, young athletes do tend to shine for a season or 2 or 3, then basically disappear!
Just in the past 15 years, the list is long---
Brianna Jackucevitz (Can't even remember how to spell her name!!)
Kaylin Whitney
Trentavis Friday
Sarah Baxter
Mary Cain
Wesley Frazier
Cayla Hatton
etc, etc, etc

Who and what is to blame?
A natural tendency to change their life's direction?
Bad coaching, parenting, education?
Unexpected tragedies in their lives?
Falling in love--or out?

It's odd how NARROW the scope of T&FN people is!
Three other young athletes (from 2016 on) are talked about on the MB at T&FN---a LOT!!
Vashti Cunningham
Mondo Duplantis
Sydney McLaughlin

Cunningham won the INdoor WC High Jump in 2016!
While not progressing like we hoped, she remains the US's top female HJ'er!
(Of course, that's not really saying much!!  LOL)
She'll turn 21 in January!

Mondo will turn 19 on November 10th!
As we know, he's become one of the World's elite PV'ers, and has progressed as one would expect for his entire High School career!
(He just became a college Frosh at LSU!)

McLaughlin went the Pro route after a sensational Frosh year at Kentucky!
She turned 19 in early August!

Katelyn Tuohy, meanwhile, won't turn 17 until after the end of the INdoor season, as her birthdate is March 18th, 2002!
So maybe it's okay to wonder if Tuohy will follow the teenage path of success enjoyed by the above named!
Or if she'll go the way of Cain, Hatton, Frazier, Baxter et al!!
(BTW, Australia's late Ron Clarke was a teen phenom also!
Then he started living a "normal" teen & early 20's life!
But by 1963---at the age of 26, he returned, and became one of the A-T greats!!)

Not much is known about Tuohy's "regular" life!
Is she a top student?
Does she have a fun hobby, such as juggling (as McLaughlin has!)?
Does she have close friends who have her back?

My own opinion of her "future" is that BOREDOM might overpower her enthusiasm and motivation!
She just began her 11th Grade year!
That means she's due to graduate HS around June of 2020!
She's already SMASHED several Records--INdoors, OUTdoors, and on several XC courses!
She wins her races NOT by 1 or 3 or 5 seconds, but by 30, 60, 90, or even 120 or more seconds!!
She broke that 5000 HSR not by 1 or 2 seconds, but by 18 seconds!!

And she does it with NO rabbits, having to pass numerous lapped runners, taking the lead and running a basically SOLO race over 99% of the distance!
Remember, the girl whose Course Record she recently broke (by 90 seconds!!) was no slouch!!
Kelsey Chmiel is one of the current 3 or 4 best female HS distance runners, although she's now a HS Senior!
So if Tuohy can do that to a Chmiel Record, what will she do to a Record held by someone far less talented than Chmiel??

One thought (attacked when posted by me on the T&FN MB!!) is that her 16:06 over a 5000 meter XC course would probably see her well under 20:00 in a 6000 meter race, as most Collegiate XC courses are!
In other words, she seems ready to hang with the very best the Collegiate scene has to offer---and yet she won't BE a Collegiate athlete until the XC season of 2020!!
(Unless she turns Pro!!  LOL)

So let the Negative Nelly's of the T&FN MB go on about all the potential career-stultifying disasters that might befall poor little Katelyn Tuohy!!

Meanwhile, I will remain a Preacher of the Positive, and say I can't wait to see---not IF Tuohy will smash a Record--but by HOW MUCH!!
(And then appear as nonchalant as a 16 year old can be in her interviews, saying "I didn't know the course, or I would have broken 16!"!!)

So what will it be?
Will she continue to shatter HSR's like panes of glass under a tank---or will I, by 2020, not even remember how to spell her name??

See you soon!