And here we are, once again at the onset of Championship Season!
In relatively short order, we'll have the NCAA, NBN, USATF, World Juniors, and the European Championships!
All of which--I'm hoping!--will be Previewed by this blog, and of course covered in detail!
(So this is an :"off" year?? Say what!!!)
A few brief guidelines to this Preview.
Events are in order of the finals, with the Decathlon being at the scheduled time of the 1500!
(For the Women, it will be the Heptathlon's 800!)
I will give you the scheduled time of finals only (All Pacific Time, and all times are p.m.!), the Meet Record, several names to ponder, and odds for a Meet Record!
The Semi's are on Day One for each sex--Wednesday for the Men, Thursday for the Women!
The meet is divided into Men's and Women's days--the Men's being Wednesday and Friday, the Women's being Thursday and Saturday--EXCEPT for the Multi's!!
The Dec opens on Wedmesday, but ends on "Women's day", Thursday!
The Hept starts on Friday "Men's Day", and ends on Saturday!
And here we go!!
Wednesday, June 6th
2:00 Hammer Throw (265-3)
While the MR is safe, we could see a trio of 250 foot throwers!
Denzel Comenentia should lead the group, as he's been the most consistent at the 250 level!
But Gleb Dudarev is dangerous, and Rudy Winkler has the Big Show experience (AND big numbers!).
If any of these have problems, Anders Eriksson, Daniel Haugh, or even Adam Kelly are capable of taking their place on the podium!
5:00 Pole Vault (19-1)
Chris Nilsen--who, PM (Pre-Mondo), was the HSR holder--is favored, off of his leap into the 19 foot arena, by 2.75 inches!!
Give him 70-30 odds of giving the MR a toss!
But only him?
No, not with a solid group of mid-to-high 18 footers here!
Devin King, Nate Richartz, and Matt Ludwig seem the best of these!
But key in on Jacob Wooten, Audie Wyatt, Torben Laidig, Trey Oates, and Deakin Volz!
Let's hope for no No Heights, or other quirks of the game!!
5:45 Javelin Throw (270-11)
Ioannis Kyriazis failed to qualify, so give this one to Anderson Peters!
He's been over 260 a few times, and no one else is close!
But look for Sindri Gudmundsson, Aaron True, Jonno Engelking, and Fabian Dohmann to be closest to the podium!
Peters is good, so give him 45-55 odds for the MR--although the JT is quite unpredictable!
6:00 Long Jump (28-0)
NO chance for the Meet Record--unless Grant Holloway reaches his full potential 2 or 3 years early!
He wasn't on his mark at the Prelims, but give him a clear shot at the W here anyway!
A 27 footer is NOT out of his range!
KeAndre Bates is better in the TJ, but watch for DeMarcus Simpson to challenge, if Holloway's off!
Zack Bazile and Charles Brown are others to watch!
6:40 Shot Put (72-2.25)
The 70 foot box is empty here--so far!
(Unless we count Jordan Geist's 70-4.50 INdoors earlier this year!)
With that in mind, Geist still is NOT favored for the win!
Mostafa Hassan is the closest, numbers-wise, but Denzel Comenentia has made this an outstanding 2nd event!
Geist and Tripp Piperi have been dueling for SP's Frosh of the Year, so give them a real "shot" (Heh!) at making the podium!
Josh Awotunde, Payton Otterdahl, Grant Cartwright, and maybe Nick Ponzio are others to consider!
MR odds are 10-90, and even THAT might be too high!!
7:08 10000 (28:01.30)
Broken record time!
The MR SHOULD go down hard, and CAN fall, BUT.....!!!
That old nemesis, the word "strategy", throws up a seemingly eternal barrier to that quest every single damn year!!
Will THIS be the year when someone chooses to RUN this race--from the gun??
Doubtful, but crazy things DO happen!
That said, give the MR odds of 60-40!
Yes, I'm being the supreme optimist!!
Tyler Day has the fastest time coming in (from 2018), but maybe doesn't have the most potential!
So watch for Vincent Kiprop, Alfred Chelanga, and Lawrence Kipkoech to lead the way!
Emmanuel Rudolff-Levisse, Grant Fischer, and Rory Linkletter are others who could set the pace!
DO IT, Guys!!
Thursday, June 7th
6:26 Decathlon (8457)
This event, as noted above, begins Wednesday, but ends here, with the 1500 scheduled for 6:26 p.m.!
This MR is safe, even though, on his best day, Tim Duckworth might approach it!
He's the odds-on (Sic!) favorite, but watch closely for Hunter Veith and Karl Saluri!
Others who might reach 8000 points are Johannes Erm, Steele Wasik, Scott Filip, Harrison Williams, and even Lexi's husband, Derek Jacobus!!
Friday, June 8th
5:00 High Jump (7-9.75)
Even though they neared 7-8 INdoors, Trey Culver and Vernon Turner won't get anywhere near this MR, as they haven't been as high (No snickers, please! LOL) OUTdoors!
Give the odds as 10-90 at best!
But that duo SHOULD be the favorites!
Shelby McEwen and Tejaswin Shankar have been having solid seasons, so consider them podium possibles!
Others to watch are Keenon Laine and Clayton Brown.
5:05 Discus Throw (215-8)
This one's a toss-up, even though Brian Williams is slightly ahead of the rest!
Throws of 210-plus might be rare, so give the MR just 15-85 odds!
Nick Percy is solid, as is Reno Tuufuli!
But look for Payton Otterdahl, Luke Vaughn, and maybe Jordan Geist to reach the podium!
5:32 4 X 100 Relay (38.04)
9.97 man Jaylen Bacon's team isn't here!
(Confirms the fact that "one speedster a Relay doesn't make"!)
That said, we have Houston with Cameron Burrell, Georgia with Kendall Williams, and Florida with Andre Ewers!
Not enough power for a MR, so give that mark ZERO odds!!
North Carolina A&T, Kentucky, LSU, Southern Miss, and even Ohio State could be podium interlopers if any team gets DQ'ed or DNF's!
5:40 Triple Jump (57-7.25)
Consider this MR unapproachable, let alone breakable!!
ZERO odds!
But make steady 55'er KeAndre Bates the slight fave!
Tell the truth--IMHO--there ain't much else out there in this once quality event!
Give Jordan Scott and Armani Wallace your closest attention!
5:42 1500 (3:35.30)
Josh Kerr has the Collegiate Record at 3:35.01.
BUT--this is a distance race, so throw in all the usual caveats before predicting a MR!
That said, give Kerr 60-40 odds of removing this 37 year old MR from the books!!
Pushing him hardest might be 3:36 guy Robert Dominic!
Sam Prakel has a solid kick, but also watch for Sam Worley, Oliver Hoare, Luis Grijalva, and someone named Ian Crowe Wright as having a podium chance!
BTW, the last named is Kerr's teammate at New Mexico!
5:54 3000SC (8:12.4)
Henry Rono made this a legendary MR 40 years ago--making this the oldest MR!
Absolutely, without any doubt, in the extreme---NO FRIGGIN' CHANCE to break it!!
Emmanuel Rotich and Brian Barraza might not even get under 8:25, but give that pair the best chance at Gold & Silver!
Matt Owens, Obsa Ali, and Clayton Shumway are good, but watch for HSR holder Bailey Roth, and solid Frosh Noah Affolder and Aidan Tooker to challenge!
Steven Fahy and Andrew Gardner are others to watch!
6:12 110H (13.16)
It might be considered sacrilege for Grant Holloway to even TRY to take down HomeBoy Devon Allen's 2014 MR right here on his soon-to-be demolished home court---or track!
That said, watch for Mr Holloway to commit the cardinal sin!!
Anything's possible with this Super Soph, so give the MR 85-15 odds!!
But Daniel Roberts suddenly became a 13:27 man!
And since I have no knowledge of his talents (except for that number!), make him Mystery Man Numero Uno!
Another to consider is Reuben Walters--and consider him strongly!!
David Kendziera, Chad Zallow, and Amere Lattin are others to key on!
Cory Poole is better at 400H, and Trey Cunningham has yet to equal the levels of the HSR holder he is with the INdoor 60H!!
6:22 100 (9.82)
Christian Coleman's MR is safe, and gets 5-95 odds--on a PERFECT day--of being taken down!
As noted earlier, Jaylen Bacon has run 9.97, but he can't be considered the SOLE challenger to the Top Rung!
Andre Ewers and Kendal Williams have also dipped under 10, so consider them podium possibles--barring FS's and other problems of this event!
Divine Oduduru might be better at 200, and Cameron Burrell's best quality might be his family name!
That said, don't underestimate either of them!
6:32 400 (44.00)
WOW!!!
This field is STACKED & LOADED!!
Yet--the MR gets "just" 80-20 odds of falling!
Why the "low" odds"?
Well, maybe because the ONLY times they've run sub-44's have been in Relays!!
But there, well, they're MONSTERS!!
I speak of Michael Norman, Nathan Strother, Nathon Allen, Akeem Bloomfield, Wil London, Kahmari Montgomery---Jeez!, this list just goes on and on and ON!!
So add Australian Steven Solomon and Prelims shocker Dwight St Hilaire to this profoundly SERIOUS group, light the match, and stand BACK!!
Still five more events, so stick with me--if you choose!
6:44 800 (1:43.55)
Michael Saruni has made this year and this race his!
About 2 seconds ahead in time of everyone else here, give him the Gold now!
As for the MR, it's up to him!
Does he WANT it?
(He already owns the Collegiate Record!!)
Watch for a first lap of 50.0--and if he runs that, give the MR 70-30 odds!
If he hits 51, lower those to 40-60!
Devin Dixon has neared the 1:45 barrier, so give him the best chance to stick with Saruni through the top of the final curve!
Daniel Kuhn and Isaiah Harris have excellent INdoor 600 times, but 600 does not an 800 make!!
Add Robert Heppenstall and Marco Arop to your watch list!
6:57 400H (47.56)
Rai Benjamin!
With a Relay leg of 43.4 or so to his credit, and with the fastest incoming time, give this baby to Mr Benjamin NOW!
The ONLY question is how fast will he go?
He definitely has the basic talents to destroy the MR (which is also the Collegiate Record!!), and even approach the 47 second wall of flames!
(The WR might even be his some day!!)
Kenny Selmon has been good in 2018, so make him Rai's best challenger!
Also watch for Cory Poole, Amere Lattin, Norman Grimes, Kemar Mowatt--and lest I forget, Mr Taylor McLaughlin, he of the rather talented McLaughlin family of New Jersey!!
7:07 200 (19.87)
Give this MR just 25-75 odds!
We have some good ones here--namely Divine Oduduru, Andre Ewers, Ncinciliti Titi, and Rodney Rowe!
But watch for 100 speedsters Jaylen Bacon and Kendal Williams to sizzle around the bend!
It would take a solid (legal) wind--a great start, and a solid curve run to get the MR---but in Eugene, there HAVE been those shining moments in the sprints!!
7:25 5000 (13:18.36)
That MR belongs to Lawi Lalang, who had to beat Ed Cheserek to get his name applied to the plaque!
Four years later, we have Justyn Knight--who, while not quite "the King"--has justifiable street creds to make him the favorite here--for the win AND the Meet Record!
Give it 60-40 odds--DESPITE the Demon Jog-and-Kick!
Three Men might give him a real race--Grant Fisher, Andy Trouard, and Alfred Chelanga!
(Chelanga will be doubling back from the 10000!)
Others to watch include Sean McGorty, Cole Rockhold, Colby Gilbert, Rory Linkletter, and former HS 4:00.16 Miler Cooper Teare!
7:51 4 X 400 Relay (2:59.59)
What a way to end this meet!
With more than one team breaking this MR!!
And (hopefully!) an AMAZING anchor leg, featuring several of the 400 guys mentioned above!
Wouldn't it be a thrill to watch 3 or 4 (or 5 or 6!!) guys speeding through legs of mid-43's, all blazing toward a photo finish??!!
USC must be given the favorite's position, based on the fact they have TWO guys with mid-43 Relay talents, not "just" one!!
I speak of Michael Norman and Rai Benjamin!
If Norman anchors, which leg will Benjamin get?
However, Auburn ALSO has TWO Men capable of quick legs--Nathan Allen and Akeem Bloomfield!
Tennessee has one--Nathon Strother!
BTW, there ARE other teams here, so also watch for Florida, Houston, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa, and Arkansas!
We could see a sub 2:58 here!
Again, what a way to close down this meet (or at least the Men's portion!)---AND Historic Hayward Field--due to be RAZED just weeks later!!
Pre would NOT like this!!
I'll have the Women's Preview--probably a bit shorter--soon!
See you then!
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