As with the Men, my sole "rule" involves OT's--NO Oversize Track marks eligible for Records or Lists!!
See my Men's post for the rest of the intro junk!
World
The 60 WR of 6.92 seems inviolable!
If only more World Leaders would give it a go!
(NOT Presidents or Prime Ministers--just athletes with World Leading marks!! LOL)
For this year, give it 10-90 odds.
The 200 WR of 21.87 gets 20-80 odds.
Forget the 400 mark of 49.59, but give the 35.45 WR for the 300 35-65 odds!
Rare is the World Class 500, but IF there's a RACE, give the 66.31 WR 40-60 odds!
If Ajee Wilson gives it a shot, the 600 WR of 1:23.44 is a goner!
85-15 odds for Ms Wilson!!
But reduce those to 60-40 if Ajee gives the 1:55.82 800 WR a shot!
A lot of these predictions are based on 2 things--A) opportunities, and B) the right athletes trying for a record!
IF Wilson or maybe Melissa Bishop run a 1000 hard, give the WR of 2:30.94 65-35 odds!
Hate to say it, but Genzebe Dibaba may NOT be the prime candidate for WR's in the distances this year!!
Ever hear of Helen Obiri, Faith Kipyegon, Almaz Ayana, or Laura Muir??
Not to mention 1 or 2 Americans!
The 3:55.17 and 4:13.31 for the 1500 & Mile are given 25-75 odds.
G-D's 2K mark of 5:23.75 needs the A & B from above!
Her 8:16.60 is a bit beyond the current crop--even Genzebe!!
But her Two Mile WR of 9:00.48 is worth an enroute 3K of about 8:27!
Give it 75-25 odds---IF!
The 5000 WR of 14:18.86 also needs the A & B from above!
Susan Kallur is NOT the World's best in the Hurdles!
So WHY is her 7.68 WR for 60H still alive??
There are SEVERAL strong candidates to bring that baby DOWN!!
Give it 65-35 odds!
Will the Great Russian get the WR of 6-9.75 in the HJ?
Give Mariya Lasitskene 80-20 odds!
Everyone else gets 20-80 odds!
Both of the Horizontals (24-2.25 & 50-4.75) are safe.
But watch for Yulimar Rojas to lead the charge in the latter!
IF all the "active" 16 footers ARE active (Hello, Demi Payne??), the WR of 16-6 could fall!
Could be another "Year of the Vault"!!
Push the SP mark of 73-10 to AD 3017!!
(And maybe not even then! LOL)
Gwen Berry's WR in the WT--84-0--is from 2017!
Watch it fall again THIS year!!
There is no Euro Champs INdoors this year, and a 5014 WR in the World Championships is unlikely!!
Will Nafi Thiam & KJT be in Birmingham for a showdown?
If so, give that 5013 WR for the Pentathlon 35-65 odds!
As ever, the Relay WR's need the Usual Suspects for Records to happen!
The marks are 1:32.41, 3:23.37, 8:06.24, 3:45.90, and 10:40.31.
The SMR needs a pair of 200's in 24, a 400 of 54, then an 800 in under 2:04!
Easy!!
US
The 60 AR is 6.95.
Give it 10-90 odds!
But the 200 mark is 22.33.
70-30!
Ditto for the 35.71 for the 300, and the 50.46 in the 400!
The 500 mark is 67.34.
Give it 60-40 odds--IF there's a RACE!
See above for the 600 mark--which is 1:23.59 for the USA!
NOTE: I recognize Ajee Wilson's 1:58.27 as the 800 AR, despite USATF's non-ratification!!
And she can break it AGAIN!!
85-15 odds!
And 90-10 odds if she takes on the 1000 AR of 2:34.19!
The 3:59.98 and 4:20.5 for the 1500 & Mile ARE breakable!!
Give each 60-40 odds with all the components in sync!
That 2000 mark of 5:34.52 is ridiculously easy!!
Needs a Mile of about 4:28, with a 66 last 400!
The 3K mark of 8:33.25 is held by the NYC Marathon Champion--Shalane Flanagan!
Both Jenny Simpson and Shannon Rowbury have run faster OUTdoors!
Can they do the same INdoors??
Simpson has the Deuce AR of 9:18.35.
She can cut at least 10 seconds off of that if she wanted to!
Flanagan also holds the 5K AR of 14:47.62!
But most of the fast 5K's are run in December!
The next 31 days will tell!
25-75 odds!
The Marathon mark is 2:44:11.
Lolo Jones, Bobsledder, has the US record in the 60H--7.72.
See my World comments!
The HJ mark of 6-7.50 is safe!
But the LJ mark of 23-8.75 is given 35-65 odds--IF Tianna Bartoletta & Brittney Reese do battle!
The 46-11.75 AR in the TJ is by Keturah Orji!
She's done 48-3.25 OUTdoors!
75-25 odds!
Three of the four active (INdoors) 16 footers in the PV who could be competing in 2018 are Americans!
Nonetheless, give the 16-6 AR just 30-70 odds!
Will Raven Saunders give Michelle Carter a go-round for the 66-3.50 AR in the SP?
Give them 40-60 odds!
Yes, BOTH!!
Ms Berry returns to challenge her own AR (& WR!) in the WT!
Gone!!
Kendell Williams & Erica Bougard are now Professionals!
The AR in the Pentathlon is 4805!
20-80 odds!
The AR's in the Relays are 1:33.24, 3:24.83, 8:28.41, 3:45.90, and 10:40.31.
The 4X800 is the weakest!
Will anyone take a shot??
The Walk AR's are 5:54.31, 6:18.03, and 12:20.79!
Collegiate
Hannah Cunliffe is back (One of the few Oregon Ducks to NOT go Pro early!!), and might challenge her 60 CR of 7.07!
But she'll have to watch her back!
The 22.40 in the 200 SHOULD fall!!
Give both of the above 60-40 odds!
The 300 mark of 35.83 is safe--even if Sydney McLaughlin makes an attempt!
But if she (Or...???) gives the 50.46 in the 400 a go, give it 70-30 odds!
The 500 & 600 CR's are 68.40 & 1:26.56.
Both are vulnerable in the 60-40 range!
Especially with 600 HSR holder (at 1:27.13) Samantha Watson now a Collegian!!
"Sammy" might also challenge the 800 CR of 2:00.69!
Give her--and a few others--40-60 odds!
But, believe it or not, Watson's HSR 1000 time is FASTER than the Collegiate Record of 2:40.79--by 0.07 seconds!!
Give that one 95-5 odds!
The 1500 (4:09.77) and Mile (4:25.91) CR's could go!
The list of candidates is long!
But Jenny (Barringer) Simpson's 3K CR of 8:42.03 is tough!
Give it 15-85 odds!
Karissa Schweizer might break the 5000 CR SOON!!
Like in the first Boston University Mini-Meet this coming weekend!!
It's 15:12.22.
And she has some decent competition!!
Go for it, Ladies!!
The 60H mark of 7.78 gets 40-60 odds.
But the HJ mark of 6-6 is safe!
Not so much the LJ mark of 22-8!
Will one of THREE Georgia Bulldogs get it--Ms Orji, Kate Hall (still the HSR holder!!), or Frosh Tara Davis??
Give them (& others) 20-80 odds!
See above for the TJ record!
The PV mark is Ms Payne's 15-7--which is given a detailed account in the book "18 Months Raising the Bar"--a book I'm halfway through my initial reading!!
Will the newly-married Weeks twins take it down?
Give them (and maybe 5 or 6 others!) 40-60 odds!
Raven Saunders is now a Senior at Ole Miss!
Give her 70-30 odds of taking down her own CR of 64-2.25 in the SP!!
However, the WT mark of 83-10.25 doesn't have any viable candidates!!
And with Ms's Williams & Bougard now gone from the Collegiate ranks, nor does the Pentathlon & its 4703 CR!
The CR's in the Relays are 1:35.65, 3:27.03, 8:25.5, 3:52.25, and 10:48.77.
HS
Lanae Tava Thomas might give the 60 (7.19) and 200 (22.97) a go!
Especially the latter--so give that one 70-30 odds--the 60 just 30-70!
McLaughlin the Juggler is in College now, but Arria Minor (And??) might have a shot at her 400 HSR of 51.61!
But her 36.82 in the 300 is pretty safe!
Samantha Watson has THREE High School Records--the 600 (1:27.13), 800 (2:01.78), and 1000 (2:40.72)
Even though the "distances" are strong, the shorter distances are not!!
Unless one of the longer distance gals moves down!!
So give the 3 above just 15-85 odds!
BTW, the 500 HSR is 70.30!
Give that one 40-60 odds!
And then there are the FOUR HSR's by Mary Cain--now FIVE years old!!
Katelyn Tuohy, Kelsey Chmiel, London Culbreath, Claudia Lane, and maybe a handful of others!!
If THEY go head-to-head--at NBIN or Millrose/Boston--watch out!!
Ms Cain might have ALL of her INdoor HSR's erased!!
(Her INdoor Amateur HSR's, that is! Her HS PRO marks will remain, as there are ZERO HS'ers gone Pro this year!!)
Then there's Brie Oakley's 15:55.75 in the 5000.
I'm giving the NBIN race its EIGHTH consecutive HSR in March!
But by WHOM???
The 60H mark of 8.02 should be safe, but give Tia Jones and others 30-70 odds anyway!
There are no HS High Jumpers anywhere near the HSR of 6-6.25!
0-100!
LTT might also challenge the LJ mark of 21-11.
Give it 35-65 odds!
The TJ mark of 44-6.75 has a couple of good ones--give it 35-65 odds also!
There are no 14 foot PV'ers back this year!
But that may not stop the 14-4 HSR from falling!
Give it 25-75 odds.
However, the best returning SP'er is a couple of feet below the 50 foot barrier!!
ZERO chance of the 57-5.50 HSR falling!
Give the 68-2.50 WT mark 20-80 odds.
Ditto the Pentathlon mark of 4068!
The Relay records are 1:35.86, 3:38.91, 8:53.67, 3:52.68, and 11:34.54.
Then there are the 4X1500 and 4 X Mile records of 18:50.91 and 19:59.24!
With Taylor Ewart evolved another year, give her 70-30 odds to take down the 1500 & Mile Walk HSR's of 6:17.59 and 6:53.44.
Well, friends, that's a wrap on my series of 2018 INdoor season Previews!!
Watch this blog for ALL the results worth noting throughout the entire INdoor season!!
See you soon!
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