This--and the following post, featuring the Women--are the last of my series of INdoor Previews for the 2017-2018 T&F INdoor season!
As always, these will be all about my 4 core groups--World, US, Collegiate, and HS.
I will say which Records I feel might be broken, their odds, and maybe a comment or two.
The main "rule" this blog lives by for INdoors is---NO Oversize Track marks accepted!!
This one is for the Men!
World
With Christian Coleman on the rise, the 60 WR of 6.39 just might have a chance!
40-60 odds.
Ditto with the 19.92 WR for the 200 (30-70), and the 300 mark of 31.87.
The latter has WR holder Noah Lyles as its front line attacker.
IF he runs it, 90-10 odds!
I've said it many times, but the 400 WR of 44.57 SHOULD fall, but it never does!
This year has many candidates, including Fred Kerley and Emmanuel Korir!
IF the right people run it, 80-20 odds!!
Same goes for the 500 mark of 59.83.
The 600 went wild last year.
Will it again?
The 1:14.91 WR is given 60-40 odds.
But despite Korir's presence (IF he runs INdoors!), give the 1:42.67 800 WR just 30-70 odds.
Same with the 2:14.20 WR for the single K.
The 1500 (3:31.18) & Mile (3:48.45) WR's CAN be beaten--but won't!
10-90 odds.
The 2K is rarely run, so the WR of 4:49.99 is safe!
The 7:24.90 3K WR is too tough for the jog-and-kick crowd that inhabits the distances nowadays!
And the 2 Mile doesn't see many opportunities--if any!
IF someone like Muktar Edris goes for it, give the 8:03.40 WR 60-40 odds!
The 5000 WR of 12:49.60?
You gotta be kidding!!
BTW, there IS an INdoor WR for the 10000--27:50.29.
With the Marathon being an INdoor event now, why not??
Speaking of which, the latter's WR is 2:21:48!!
NO for the 60H mark of 7.30!
Maybe never!!
I'm giving Mutaz Barshim 65-35 odds to take down the HJ's 7-11.50 WR!
The LJ mark of 28-10.25 WOULD have 40-60 odds--IF Luvo Manyonga competes INdoors!
But South Africans & Down Under athletes have their OUTdoor seasons during the INdoor season, so don't count on it!
Will the Taylor-Claye Act go on tour this INdoor season?
If so, give the TJ mark of 58-9.50 WR 40-60 odds.
The PV's 20-2.50 WR is safe--even from the WR holder himself!!
The SP's 74-4.25 was once thought impossible.
But with the current group of Throwers, give it 30-70 odds!
The 84-10.25 WR for the WT is a toughie, but give it 30-70 odds!
And because Mr Eaton is retired, and because the best Heptathletes are now European & Canadian, give the 6645 WR just 10-90 odds!
As always, Relays are hard to predict.
The WR's are 3:01.06, 7:13.11, 16:12.81, and 9:19.83.
The Distance marks have the best chance of falling---if GIVEN the chance!!
US
My 60, 300, and 400 predictions are the same as above, but the US 200 WR is 20.10--so give Lyles & Coleman 60-40 odds there!
The 500 AR is 1:00.06.
Kerley could challenge it! 65-35 odds if he does!
The US does have some candidates for the 600 mark--See above!
The US 800 record is 1:45.00, and the 1000 mark is 2:16.76.
Both are given 60-40 odds--IF the right people run it!
What kind of shape is Centro (Matthew Centrowitz) in?
The 1500 (3:33.34) and Mile (3:49.89) AR's CAN be his, but....!!
55-45 & 15-85 odds, respectively!
The 2K AR is 4:54.74--which basically is 3:58.74 for 1600, then a last 400 of 56!
IF there's a RACE, give it 60-40 odds!
The longer Distances (3000 of 7:30.16, Deuce of 8:07.41, and 5000 of 13:01.26) all get 25-75 odds!
Paul Chelimo??
BTW, that Marathon WR is by an American!
ZERO odds given to the 60H AR of 7.36!
Same for the 7-10.50 HJ mark, and the LJ mark--which is the same as the WR.
The AR in the TJ is LESS than the WR--58-3.25!
So give Mr's Taylor & Claye 60-40 odds here!
Sam Kendricks is THIS close to 19-9 (the AR in the PV).
Give him 55-45 odds of PR'ing in Record-breaking territory!!
See above for the SP & WT predictions!
NO for the Heptathlon!!
The AR for the 4X400 Relay is 3:01.96.
The distance Relay records are the same as the World's!
Ditto the chances!
The various Walk AR's are--5:38.2 (Mile), 11:16.3 (3K), 12:05.94 (Deuce), and for the 5000, 19:15.88.
All safe!
Collegiate
With Lyles & Coleman both Pro's now, it's NO for the 60 & 200 CR's of 6.45 & 20.10!
And with Kerley also gone, forget the 44.57 CR (& WR & AR!!) for the 400!
The 600 mark is 1:14.96, while the 800 & 1000 are 1:44.84 and 2:18.26.
The latter has a REAL chance--70-30 odds--but give the 600 just 40-60, and the 800 20-80!
Mr Cheserek graduated, and went Professional!
However, I still give his 3:37.01 and 3:52.01 CR's 30-70 odds!
The 3000 CR of 7:38.59 is given better odds (40-60) than the 5000 mark of 13:08.28 (5-95)!!
Grant Holloway is still in College!
Give the 60H mark of 7.45 better than half a chance of falling--IF he's healthy!
The HJ (7-9.25), LJ (28-2.25), and the TJ (57-5) have a snowball's chance etc etc!!
Even though there are NO Collegiate PV'ers with a 19-plus PR, give the 19-4.75 CR 25-75 odds!
(Chris Nilsen HAS that kind of potential!)
The SP mark of 71-3.50 is given 20-80 odds, but the WT Record of 83-11.25 jumps to 30-70!
Forget the 6499 CR in the Heptathlon!
The CR's in the Relays are 1:24.70, 3:02.52, 7:17.45, and 9:25.97.
IF run on LEGAL tracks, give them ALL half a chance--or better!
HS
While there ARE great HS marks scattered throughout the INdoor season, HSR's are mostly dependent on strong New Balance INdoor Nationals efforts, not to mention some decent candidates appearing there!
That said, give the 60 mark of 6.57 ZERO odds!
Because of Anthony Schwartz, Tyrese Cooper, and Brian Herron, especially Cooper, give the longer sprint marks of 20.63, 32.87, and 45.92 about 65-35 odds of dying!
The 600 mark of 1:17.58 could be a 48.6, with a final lap of just under 29 seconds tacked on!
Give it 60-40 odds--and 100-0 if Mr Cooper tries it!
What will Brandon Miller do--IF he races INdoors??
The 800 & 1000 marks of 1:49.21 and 2:22.28 could fall, if he runs them!
He may have a bit of company!!
The Mile saw most of the sub-4 candidates graduate!
And Brodey Hasty is mainly known for the longer distances!
So give Drew Hunter's HSR's of 3:41.93 & 3:57.81 ZERO odds!!
The question for Hasty is--Which distances will he run??
The 5000 mark by King Ches (13:57.04) would actually be given the BEST odds---IF Hasty gives it a real shot--probably at NBIN!
The 3K & 2 Mile HSR's of 7:59.33 and 8:39.15 have less chance, but give the Deuce 60-40, with the 3000 getting 30-70!
The 60H mark of 7.40 is safe!
The Horizontal Jumps (26-6.50 & 52-7.50) Records get 5-95 odds.
The HJ is slightly better--10% odds.
Then there's MONDO!!
Give him--ummm---1,000,000 to zero odds of taking down his 19-1 HSR!!
OK, maybe reduce that to just 99-1 odds!
LOL
The trio of A-T greats in the HS Shot Put have graduated!
So the 77-2.50 (& 68-4 for the 16 pounder) HSR is VERY safe!!
Forget the 93-3.25 WT mark!!
Until the 22nd century--if then!
(But the Pro WT mark of 65-8.25 gets 40-60 odds--if someone takes it on!!)
But give the 4307 HSR in the Pentathlon 70-30 odds, with Kyle Garland returning!!
The usual caveat is given all the Relay records--1:26.09, 3:13.06, 7:36.99, 17:07.17, 3:24.02, and 9:56.18.
They're all vulnerable, but they're all difficult too!
Flip a coin!
The Walk HSR for the Mile is 6:03.48.
It will remain as such another year!
The Women are coming soon!!
No comments:
Post a Comment