Without the latest results included in the Men's Predictions, the Women's should be a bit shorter.
EXCEPT that the Women are likely to break more major records than the Men, so my commentary might be longer!
So let's get right to it---with (again) the only "rule" being I accept NO Oversize Track marks!!
WORLD
There are Women running now faster than Irina Privalova was!
Yet her 6.92 WR in the 60 remains inviolable!
IF people like Tori Bowie and Elaine Thompson ran a few of these, they COULD approach the record!
Give it 20-80 odds!
The 200 (21.87) has faster Women now, but this record too is safe.
Give it 30-70 odds.
Like the Men's 400, the Women's WR of 49.59 has been bettered--OUTdoors by a few.
But 50 seconds remains one of the toughest barriers for Under-Roof speedsters!
20-80!
Alysia Montano came within 0.15 of the 600 WR a few years back!
It's a vulnerable record--IF someone goes for it!
50-50 odds--at best!
The 800!
I should remind you that I do NOT accept times run by Caster Semenya, Margaret Wambui, or Francine Niyonsaba!!
Thus, the WR of 1:55.82 gets 20-80 odds!
Laura Muir (See an earlier post!) has stated she'll be gunning for the 1000 British record---and the WR---if she's on in the Birmingham meet!!
And she CAN break that record---as can 1 or 2 others!
If she gets good competition in Birmingham, watch out!
70-30 odds!
Then we have the FIVE World Records of Genzebe Dibaba---who has yet to announce any WR attempts she's planning!
But now--with Muir and others--capable of running Dibaba-type times--we MIGHT see G-D's list shortened a bit!
Best bets are the 2 Mile (9:00.48)--unless the event itself isn't held!!--and the 5000--if either Dibaba or Almaz Ayana take a shot!
Least likely is the 3000 (8:16.60), and the shorties--the 1500 and Mile (3:55.17 and 4:13.31).
Those get maybe 30-70 odds.
(Gabriela Szabo's 2K mark of 5:30.52 gets 60-40 odds--IF a major race at the distance comes up!)
Susanna Kallur holds the 60H record with her 7.68!
There are TONS of Women who have run faster than Kallur OUTdoors!
Why can't they run faster INdoors too?
Give this one 90-10 odds!
It's WAY overdue for a major slashing!!
Like with the Men, the HJ ain't doing so well with the Women either!
That 6-9.75 WR is too high!
5-95 odds!
Brittney Reese threatens the 24 foot mark with every LJ she takes!
But despite knocking on the door, the key code remains a secret!
30-70 odds!
The 50-4.75 TJ record is great, but doable.
Just not this year!
10-90 odds!
Ahhhh, the PV!!
With Yelena Isinbayeva turning to politics (By FORCE!! INNOCENT Russians should be allowed to compete!!), it's left to Jenn Suhr and Sandi Morris to attack this WR of 16-6--held by Suhr!
I'll take a chance, and give this one 80-20 odds of going down!!
Forget the SP mark of 73-10---until maybe 2117!!
The WT mark is also a toughie, but much more THIS century---and maybe this YEAR!!
Give it 60-40 odds!
(I wish Anita Wlodarczyk would try this!!)
The 5000 points barrier in the Pentathlon has a slightly open door.
Will KJT take it on?
If so, give it (Her!!) 80-20 odds!
Without her, reverse those numbers!
As with the Men, the Relays are impossible to predict!
UNITED STATES
The 6.95 WR in the 60 is doable, but unlikely!
Give it 30-70 odds!
The 22.18 over a single INdoor lap is easier, so give it 60-40 odds!
And it gets even better with the 400 time of 50.46!
Give that one 70-30 odds!
See my World remarks about Montano's 600!
We have several fast 400 gals, and several more with 800 strength!
If a good race (at USATF??) is organized, give this 60-40 odds!
Ditto with the 800 AR of 1:58.71.
A few years back, I'd have called you insane if you'd suggested this record was likely to go down!
But now the US is World Class in the distances--from 800 on up!
Go for it, Ladies!
70-30 odds!
And that 1000 of 2:34.19?
Should have gone down when Mary Cain ran that 2:35.80!
(If the pacing had been better...!)
Too many candidates to list them, but suffice to say, this gets 80-20 odds!!
Given the perfect race with the best runners, ALL of the distance AR's are fair targets!
Best bets are the 2 Mile (9:18.35) and the 5000 (14:47.62).
Those get 70-30 odds!
The 3:59.98 and 4:20.5 for the 1500 and Mile get 60-40 odds!
The most difficult---but still possible!--is the 3000 of 8:33.25!
But remember, both Jenny Simpson and Shannon Rowbury have run sub-8:30's OUTdoors!!
Give that one 40-60 odds!
See my World remarks about the 60H.
Same applies here---ESPECIALLY here!!
Can still-a-teen Vashti Cunningham take the HJ record down!
She's 1.25 inches shy, but a year older!!
Give it (Her!) 70-30 odds!
But watch also for Chaunte Lowe!
Ms Reese gets 80-20 odds here.
Without her, the LJ odds are reduced to 30-70!
Keturah Orji TJ'ed over a foot and a half longer than Sheila Hudson's AR!!
If she doesn't OBLITERATE this US standard, call me a monkey's uncle!!
See my World remarks for my PV predictions!
(Since both of the top candidates are Americans!!)
Michelle Carter CAN take down her own AR in the SP.
But watch for major improvements coming from Raven Saunders!
Give Carter 70-30 odds, with Saunders getting 20-80 odds!
The WT is vulnerable, but unlikely!
Ditto for the Pentathlon mark of 4805 points!
Can Kendell Williams top that?
60-40 odds!
I've heard rumors that a US team is being put together for a big race in the DMR!
If that comes to reality, odds are 100-0 for a HUGE chunk of time being lopped off the 10:42.57 standard!!
COLLEGIATE
Of the three sprints, the 200 CR of 22.40 is the most likely to fall!
80-20 odds there!
Reduce those odds to 60-40 for the 60 (7.08) and 400 (50.46)!
The 600 standard (1:27.78) is a relatively easy mark!
(A 57, then add a 200 in 30.7!!)
If raced on a LEGAL track, give it 70-30 odds!
The 800 gets the same odds.
As for the 1000 mark of 2:40.82, keep in mind Jazmine Fray's opening shot of 2:43.15 detailed in an earlier post!
This CR should be well under 2:40!
Give it 80-20 odds!
EVERY distance CR has a barn door as its target--painted bright red!!
With HS'ers having run faster than the 1500 mark of 4:09.77 (at least OUTdoors!!), I give this one 80-20 odds!
The Mile mark of 4:25.91 is a bit tougher, but not for the current crew!
Give that 70-30 odds!
Then there's the 3000 (8:42.03) and 5000 (15:12.22)!
The Women who can take those down are there--but OT's and race strategy are two reasons I'm giving them "just" 40-60 odds!
The 7.78 CR in the 60H is tough--by Brianna Rollins, no less!!--but vulnerable!
Give it 70-30 odds!
The HJ--here as elsewhere--is fairly weak!
So no go for the CR!
The LJ mark of 22-8 gets 40-60 odds!
See my US remarks about the TJ!!
Will Lexi Weeks add a couple of inches to her OUTdoor PR of 15-5?
Are any other Collegians ready to make 15 feet a habit?
YES!
Give this 70-30 odds!
Watch for Raven Saunders to raise her own CR in the Shot Put!
Main question is---By how many FEET??
90-10 odds!
See my World and US remarks about the WT!
And see my comments on Kendell Williams about the Pentathlon CR!
Would love to see a Stanford vs Oregon race over the DMR distance--but NOT in Seattle!
If they're on, the CR of 10:50.98 gets 70-30 odds!!
HIGH SCHOOL
Candace Hill is still in HS, but she's a Pro now!
But Lauren Rain Williams isn't!
Odds for the 60 (7.19) are 50-50.
Odds for the 200 (22.97) get a whole lot better---70-30!!
As for Sydney McLaughlin taking out her own 400 HSR of 51.84, keep in mind her opening INdoor event was the LJ!!
But if she runs it, it goes DOWN!!
Give it 100-0 odds with Syd in the race!!
The 600 record of 1:28.87 dates from 2015!
With Sammy Watson in the mix, give this one 80-20 odds!
She even has a shot at Mary Decker (Slaney's) venerable 800 record of 2:01.8!
AND the 1000 mark of 2:43.40!
(Mary Cain's fast 1000's were run as a Professional!!)
The 1K HSR gets 90-10 odds--especially with Watson and/or Kate Murphy in the race!!
Murphy has the street cred to attack ALL the HSR's from the 1500 to the 5000 with alacrity!!
Yes, even the 4 of them held by the inimitable Ms Cain from 2013!!
IF Murphy (and a few others of note) truly go after them, EVERY one of them can go!
Best bets are---ALL of them!!
Give all of them 80-20 odds with a committed attack by Murph the Surf!!
(To get them all, she'd have to race against Pro's & Collegians at Millrose or Boston--besides at NBIN!!)
With Tia Jones back as a Soph, and several others following through on a spectacular Hurdles year in 2016, look for the 8 second barrier to be broken in 2017!!
Give the 8.02 HSR 80-20 odds!
No good HJ'ers in sight!
ZERO odds for Vashti Cunningham's great HSR!
With Ms McLaughlin (See my Men's post from earlier today!) already having LJ'ed 20-7.25, look for her to challenge the HSR of 21-7.50--unless someone else gets there first!
60-40 odds!
Tara Davis would have to add over 18 inches to get the TJ record!
But watch for Jasmine Moore and Titiana Marsh also!
Odds there are 40-60!
Rachel Baxter--14-3 last year--can get Tori Weeks's HSR--just 1 inch higher!
Give this 70-30 odds!
See my report on Alyssa Wilson's opener in the SP!!
Raven Saunders HSR is-a-goner!!
90-10 odds--barring injury, etc!
The WT mark is safe!
As is the Pentathlon mark!
The latter gets 20-80 odds!
As with all the other sections, ALL of the Relay HSR's are fair to extremely easy targets!
Question remains---are there teams with more than 1 superstar??
The only HS PRO still in the game is Candace Hill!
If she runs INdoors, her 7.32 mark over 60 meters is most vulnerable!!
If nothing much happens between now and December 25th, then I wish you all a very Merry Christmas!!
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