Well, here we are again, at the beginning of another exciting INdoor season!
If you read my earlier posts (and read the results I have for you below!), you know there's already been some good marks--but no major INdoor records!
Will there be?
Before I get started, here's the latest marks of note--
Chantz Sawyers (Interesting 1st name!!) ran 500 meters in 1:02.53.
While the 500 is an event I don't have a list for, luckily I just received Jack Shepard's 2017 edition of HS Track---which DOES have an A-T list for this event!!
Sawyers's time ranks 3rd A-T HS!!
Pretty amazing, especially considering it's not even Christmas yet!!
Alyssa Wilson looks to be on the perfect track (so to speak!!) to take down Raven Saunders's HSR in the SP!!
She opened her season at the Bishop Loughlin Games with a super PR of 55-9.50--a 10.50 inches improvement on her PR!
While she remains 2nd A-T HS, she is that much closer to the phenomenal Ms Saunders!!
Wilson also PR'ed in the WT--tossing it out 57-5.75--missing the HS DDD by 5.75 inches!!
Then there's Super Hurdler Sydney McLaughlin!
This World Class Hurdler became 10th A-T HS, tied with 1 other--on the INdoor LONG JUMP list!!
Her 20-7.25 bodes well for a great final HS season!!
RECORDS!!
Which, if any, will fall this INdoor season in my 4 core groups--World, US, Collegiate, and HS?
And which have NO chance of going down?
The odds?
Well, let's see!
The only real "rule" I have says NO Oversize Track marks!
As always, the Men go first, as this will be a two-post baby--the Women to follow a few hours later!
WORLD
The 60 and 200 (6.39 & 19.92) have ZERO chance of going down!
The 60's too tough, while it's rare to see a World Class 200 nowadays!
As for that 400 of 44.57, it SHOULD fall, but probably won't, as the best guys (like Wayde Van Niekerk!!) don't normally race INdoors!
But the odds are a bit better than the shorter sprints--maybe 40-60?
That 500 of 59.83 could fall, but again, it would take a fast 400 guy to get it!
(Not to mention having a meet HOLD that event!!)
The 600--a popular event INdoors--has 30-70 odds.
The 800 can fall, but without the very best in there, the odds are less than 50-50!
The 1000 went down in 2016!
Can it go again?
Sure, IF.....!!
So give it 70-30 odds!
The Men's Distances are all pretty safe!
While the 1500 & Mile are slow, compared to their OUTdoor equivalents, I see neither going down!
Even if Matthew Centrowitz decides to RUN the entire distance--not just the final 400!
I'll give both 60-40 odds!
The 2000 WR of 4:49.99 is safe---mainly for lack of opportunity!
The 3000 (7:24.90) gets 30-70 odds, while the Two Mile (8:03.40) has 50-50 odds, IF any major deuces are run!
That 5000 (12:49.60)?
Forget it!
The 60H of 7.30 is other-worldly!!
If anybody broke 7.40, it would have a good chance for Performance of the Year!!
So ZERO odds!
The HJ is in a slump, so that WR is safe another year!
As is the LJ of 28-10.25!
But if Christian Taylor (And??) compete INdoors, the TJ World Record WILL fall!!
With the best competing, I give it 80-20 odds!
Renaud Lavillenie is almost certain to take some attempts at his own WR!
But I just don't see him getting it!
So give it (Him??) 40-60 odds!
There's Thiago Braz & Sam Kendricks, but both are too far from the record--now!
Ryan Crouser could nail the SP record!
IF he's on, give him 70-30 odds.
Without him in the mix, give the record 20-80 odds!
As for the Weight Throw, Lance Deal's WR of 84-10.25 is just too good.
But it still gets 30-70 odds!
Will Ashton Eaton do a Heptathlon??
Without an INdoor WC, I just don't see his WR of 6645 points falling this year!
Give it 20-80 odds!
The Relays?
As always, these are hard to predict!
It takes the right teams--all going for a record!
Best bet seems to be the 4X800!
UNITED STATES
The 60 is safe! (See the World section!)
The 200 is less so, but it would take some top Ameicans getting the opportunity!
So maybe 40-60 odds for 200!
See the World section for my take on the 400!
The 600 US record of 1:15.33 is vulnerable, with 60-40 odds!
As is the 1:45.00 in the 800!
Give that one 70-30 odds!
The 1000 gets even better odds, at 80-20!
With Centro threatening (promising??) to race the entire distance, both the 1500 (3:33.34) and Mile (3:49.89) have 80-20 odds of going down.
If Centro is injured (Or???), forget it!
Galen Rupp's AR's in the 3000 (7:30.16), 2 Mile (8:07.41), and 5000 (13:01.26) COULD all go down---IF the best run them with the ONLY "strategy" being to GET the American Record!!
Good luck!
I'll give the Deuce the best odds, at 70-30, with the others getting 30-70!
While the 60H AR is "just" 7.36, it's still too tough!
Give it ZERO odds!
Can Erik Kynard take the HJ record down--without the bar falling too?
(Obviously, if one falls, the other doesn't!! LOL)
Give it 40-60 odds!
The LJ is safe---VERY safe!
But that TJ record should go---so give it 90-10 odds!
Kendricks CAN at least match the AR in the PV---19-9---but probably won't!
So give it 20-80 odds!
As with the World Record, give the SP the same odds, with the same caveats!
Ditto the WT mark!
AND the Heptathlon!!
Watch for the DMR and the 4X800 AR's to have the best chances!
COLLEGIATE
The 60 is pretty fast (6.45), so give it 20-80 odds, with the 200 (Even though Noah Lyles is racing as a Pro!!) getting 30-70 odds!
That 400 (The WR!!) is absolutely safe!!
With some fast 800 guys, look for the 600 (1:15.79), 800 (1:44.84), and 1000 (2:18.26) as having good chances of falling!
Can all three go down?
Sure, but give the 1000 the best odds--at 70-30--with the 800 getting 60-40 odds, and the 600 maybe 70-30 also!
Will Ed Cheserek want to go after RECORDS in his final Collegiate year--or continue his MoBot madness?
(With Patrick Tiernan out of College, leave it to Justyn Knight to challenge The King!)
The 1500 (3:37.25) and Mile (3:52.88) can both go, but will need to see the best running their fastest on LEGAL tracks---i.e 200 meters in circumference!
Not always a given in Collegiate Track!!
Give both 60-40 odds!
As for the 3000 (7:38.59), Ches ran within 2 seconds of that last year!
Give it 70-30 odds!
But the 5000 CR of 13:08.28 is just too far from anyone's barnside to give it better than---ZERO odds!!
Is anyone around who can take down the 7.45 CR in the 60H?
Sure, but they won't!
Give it 20-80 odds!
Forget the HJ, LJ, and TJ records!
All get close to zero odds---at best 5-95 for each!!
The PV mark is safe!
As is the SP mark!
The WT sometimes produces "unknowns" who rise rapidly to challenge records!
This year?
Give the WT CR 20-80 odds!
While there're some good Multis guys around, give the Heptathlon CR of 6499 at least another year on the throne!
Relays take a full TEAM, not just 1 or 2 super individuals.
However, all 3 CR's could go here--the 4X400 of 3:02.86, the 4X800 of 7:17.45, and the DMR of 9:25.97!
But NOT at Seattle or Notre Dame--if you get my drift!!
HIGH SCHOOL
What will Tyrese Cooper run this year?
He has the ABILITY to chase the 60, 200, and 400 HSR's!
Especially the two latter!
Give the 200 AND 400 80-20 odds, with the 60 being much closer to the DMZ of T&F Records--maybe 20-80 odds!
Can Chantz Sawyers (See above!) move up another 100 meters, and take down the 600 HSR of 1:17.58?
Give it 60-40 odds!
The 800 has lots of good returnees, so give it (1:49.21) and the 1000 (2:22.28) 60-40 odds of falling!
With no sub-4 guys left in the HS ranks, Drew Hunter's HSR's in the 1500 and Mile are safe---with each getting 10-90 odds!
Ditto Hunter's 3000 mark of 7:59.33.
But give that one 30-70 odds!
And Cheserek's 2 Mile of 8:39.15, or his 5000 HSR of 13:57.04?
Both could go, but guys like Reed Brown and Casey Clinger would have to PR mightily to get close!
Give those 30-70's also!
Trey Cunninghasm opened in the 60H with a 7.63!
(See a previous post!!)
Give him, and the HSR of 7.53 70-30 odds!
The HJ this year has a good chance of going down--getting 70-30 odds!
I think the LJ and TJ are safe, but give them each 40-60 odds!
Mondo Duplantis hasn't opened up his INdoor season yet!
Assuming he competes, the HSR WILL fall!!
Give it 90-10 odds---IF Duplantis competes!
Otherwise, it has ZERO chances!!
THREE great SP'ers (Jordan Geist, Adrian Piperi, and Bronson Osborn) are all back this year!
But can any of them take down Ryan Crouser's HSR of 77-2.50??
YES!!
I give Geist the best shot (Sic!!), but watch them all!
Odds are 70-30!
But forget the WT record!!
No relays predictions--Sorry!!
Just too many unknowns!
Except one!
The HS Relay records are ALL vulnerable!!
Exciting to contemplate!
The Women's Predictions will follow in a few hours!
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