Tuesday, July 19, 2016

WJC's Meet Record Predictions--Women

Same format as in the Men's.
Events presented in "normal" order, with the MR given, then my odds for it being broken, and adding some names to watch.
Unlike the Men's, however, all of the Women's Throws, as well as the 100H's, use International Professional weights and height!
(Wish the Men's would too!!)
One small caveat--the meet will have begun BEFORE this gets posted!
But I promise you I will NOT cheat, by peeking at any results coming in, PRIOR to posting!
(I may do some editing later, however, to correct any misspelling of names I made!!  LOL)
And away we go, Ladies!

100 (11.12)  Wind can prevent a record from falling, but this one has a pretty good chance of getting whacked!  We have 10.98 girl Candace Hill here.  Only problem is, she hasn't come close to sub-11 since she ran that a year ago!!  But Hill's not the only solid contender here.  Watch for Sweden's Ewe Swoboda, and Trinidad & Tobagos's Khalifa St Fort!!  Also look for Colombia's Evelin Rivers, and Jayla Kirkland, Hill's teammate!  80-20 odds!

200 (22.53)  Irene Ekelund is the best here, but not far removed are Khalifa St Fort, Sada Williams of Barbados, as well as two Americans, Taylor Bennett and Jayla Kirkland.  Two long shots are Bahrain's Edidiong Odiong, and Nigeria's Mercy Ntia-Odong.  40-60 odds.

400 (50.50)  The MR is 50.50, but this gets ZERO odds of going down!  Best bets to medal are Jamaica's Junelle Bromfield and Tiffany James, as well as America's Lynna Irby.

800 (2:00.06)  Believe it or not, the two Americans have a chance to go 1-2!!  Sammy Watson and Aaliyah Miller have PR's just under 2:03, so the MR should be safe.  10-90!  That said, both could improve their HS positions!!  Watch too for Canada's Victoria Tachinski, and Esther Chebet of Uganda.  Third American, with a 2:03.43 PR, is Ruby Stauber!

1500 (4:04.96)  Faith Kipyegon set this MR in 2012, and we all know how GREAT she's become since!  Well, with a PR of 4:03.39, and good 800 wheels, Alexa Efraimson actually has a shot at Kipyegon's mark!! But given the normal way these races are run, it would take a fast early pace, plus a kick-ass kick for it to fall!  70-30 odds, and that's probably WAY too high!!  Ethiopia has a solid pair, in Adanech Anbesa and Fantu Worku.  Watch for fast-rising Konstanze Klosterhalfen of Germany!  There's also Bobby Clay, who seems to have been a junior for decades!!  Other Americans are Christine Aragon and Rachel McArthur!

3000 (8:46.86)  No real studs here--at least not in the mid-8:40's class!  Datila Gosa of Bahrain is maybe the best here, but watch for America's Kate Murphy.  She has a 1500 best of 4:07.21, with the potential for more, so should be capable of a sub-8:50---IF she's pushed, and IF she's confident of sticking with that kind of pace!!  Watch for Kenya's Sheila Chelangat, Germany's Konstanze Klosterhalfen (doubling here!), as well as Murphy's US teammates, Katie Rainsberger and Destiny Collins!  The US team have all had long HS seasons, so might be tired!  Less than 10% chance of the MR falling.

5000 (15:08.06)  Less than 10% chance here too!!  Datila Gosa and Bantu Rebitu of Bahrain are good,  But American Anna Rohrer might be AS good!!  If she's in sub-15:30 shape, this could be a great race!

10000 (32:29.90)  No, this distance isn't available here---for Women!!  SEXIST!!!!!  Too bad!  The HSR needs a good clobbering!!  The listed MR is by the slightly controversial Wang Junxia, who is the World Record holder at 29:31.78!!

3000SC (9:31.36)  90-10 odds!!!  Why?  Tigist Getnet of Bahrain, Peruth Chemutai of Uganda, and Celliphine Chespol of Kenya--that's why!  Devin Clark of the US might dip under 9:50!

10000 Walk (42:47.25)  As with the Men's Walk, there's no real MR challenger here, as there was in 2014!  ZERO chance!  China has Zhenxia Ma, while Finland counters with Taiki Nummi, and Italy sends Noemi Stella.  Watch also for Valeria Ontuna!

100H (12.89)  Amazingly, the top candidate to break this MR is a HS Freshman!!  Her name is Tia Jones, and she won't be 16 until September!!  She ran the HSR (!!) time of 12.84, her first turn at sub-13!!  But there's someone a bit faster here!  Oluwatobiloba Amusan (!!) of Nigeria has a PR of 12.83.  Jones's youth could work FOR her---or against her!  We'll see!  The Bahamas has Elvira Herman, while the US adds Alexis Duncan and Anna Cockrell.  70-30.

400H (54.70)  DARN!!!  Sydney McLaughlin, holder of every imaginable record for teens in this event, has selected to concentrate on Rio, not here!!  I mean, what's in Rio, anyway??  LOL  That said, this MR now has steel wall protection for another 2 years!!  But the Americans still look to have the 2 best bets for Gold in Anna Cockrell and Brandee Johnson.  Cockrell has the speed to go much faster than her 55.89 PR!  Watch for Jamaica's Shannon Kalawan!

HJ (6-6.75, or 2.00)  Without Vashti Cunningham here, this MR gets ZERO odds!!  But look for Yuliya Levchenko of Ukraine, Michaela Hruba of the Czech Republic, and Lada Pejchalova, also from the Czech Republic!  Nicole Greene has been stuck at the 6-1 level for years, it seems!  Due to break out!!

LJ (22-4.50, or 6.82)  Zero odds here too!  Germany has Sophie Weissenberg, while France gives us Yanis David. Also look for Hannie Maudens. The US duo is Bria Matthews and Samaiyah Samuels.

TJ  (47-11.75, or 14.62)  This MR is solid until 2018 also!  Cuba has the best one here, name of Davisleidis Velazco.  France's Yanis David is doubling here, as is America's Bria Matthews.  Mariya Ovchinnikova of Kazakhstan is one to watch.  The US's Tara Davis has possibilities.

PV (14-9, or 4.50)  As with the Men, this may have the best field---of a field event!!  HaHa!  Wilma Murto is a genuine phenom, and should be the favorite here.  The odds are 90-10!!  If Murto wants company, she'll almost certainly get it when Australia's Nina Kennedy goes to work.  Then there's a NEW phenom, name of Lisa Gunnarson!!  Angelica Moser of Switzerland, and Robeilya Peinado  might offer a slight challenge, as might the Americans, Rachel Baxter and Carson Dingler.

SP (61-6.75, or 18.76)  ZERO!!  Alina Kenzel of Germany has the best mark, 57-4.  Maria Orozco of Mexico is solid.  America offers HSR threat Alyssa Wilson, plus good back-up with Nickolette Dunbar and Elena Bruckner!

DT (223-11, or 68.25) Forget this MR--until the 22nd century!!  But Montenegro, of all places, offers the best here!  Her name is Kristina Rakocevic.  Rabcelys Pesnado of Venezuela is also one to watch, as well Moldovan Alexandra Emilianov.  The US has a doubler in Elena Bruckner, as well as Kiana Phelps!

JT  (206-8, or 63.00)  I'll give this one 10-90 odds, as this event is probably the least predictable of the throws!  Japan offers Haruka Kitaguchi, while Turkey has Eda Tugsuz.  Watch too for Fabienne Schonig of Germany.

HT  (231-8, or 70.62)  10-90 here also!  Best here seems to be Cuba's Ayamey Medina.  But Beatrice Llano of Norway, and Viktoriya Holda of Ukraine could challenge.  The Americans are good--for America!  They are Joy McArthur and Haley Showalter-Stevens.  (Has Showalter married recently?  Last time I saw her name, the "Stevens" part wasn't there!!)

Heptathlon  (6470)  Z-E-R-O!!!  Sarah Lagger of Austria has the best score, with a PR of 5776 points!!  Hanna Maudens of Belgium, and Karin Strametz, also of Austria, are others to watch.  Interesting to see if Emma Fitzgerald can add 115 points to her PR to break the HSR!!

4X100 Relay (43.40)  Same as with the Men, Relay records at this level are tough to predict!  That said, the US and Jamaica always get an A for effort--or something like that!!  Watch for Trinidad and Tobago, which will certainly include Khalifa St Fort!  With Candace Hill, however, the US is given 90-10 odds of breaking this MR!

4X400 Relay (3:27.60)  The US has just 1 real standout 400 girl here, in Lynna Irby.  But again, the US almost always produces solid marks, so the MR is given 70-30 odds!  Watch for Jamaica here too!

Enjoy the meet, folks!
I'll be back with a FULL DETAILED report after the final event ends!!

P.S. As noted earlier, I'll also be back SOON with the CORRECT spellings of all the names I goofed on!!


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