Did you know the name of the World Junior Championships has been changed?
Yeah, neither did I!
It's now called the WJC--Under 20 Champs!!
(As opposed to the Under 23 version!)
Nothing's changed from previous versions--except the name!!
Whatever.
One more thing--it's taking place in Bydgoszcz, Poland--and that's the LAST time in this post you'll see me spelling that name!! LOL
As for the Predictions, I'll give the odds of a MR being broken.
The presentation will differ here.
I'm giving the events in their usual order, not in sections of Best (or Worst) Odds, as I did in 2014!
I'll have separate posts for each gender!
This one is for the Men!
Two more things---
1. The meet is in Poland, not the United States, so American interest might not be as high.
2. The Olympics! In 2014, this meet had no really major meets to contend with. Not the case here, with Rio's T&F action just over 3 weeks away!
BUT--there ARE some great athletes here, and some HOT events--so let's get to it!
Men
100 (10.05) Odds are 40-60. Normally, the fastest PR is rated highest to win. Not here! While Saudi Arabia's Abdullah Mohammed has run 10.04, expect Noah Lyles to probably win! If you saw him at the US Trials, you'd know why! Jamaica's Nigel Ellis and Filippo Tortu of Italy are others to watch.
BTW, Lyles turned 19 today!!
200 (20.28) 90-10!! Michael Norman!! Only excessive wind, an injury or False Start will prevent this MR from falling! While Lyles is apparently not doubling (according to the provisional entry lists of July 16th!), Norman has all it takes to cut this record to pieces! Watch for Baboloki Thebe of Botswana, and Nigel Ellis of Jamaica. Also look for South Africa's Clarence Munyal.
400 (44.66) 60-40. Abdelalah Haroun of Qatar, and Baboloki Thebe have run in the low 44's. Can they do that here? Jamaica's Chris Taylor, as well as the two Americans (Wil London and Kahmari Montgomery), are a second slower! Is Thebe really doubling?
800 (1:43.79) ZERO!! You never NOT expect a Kenyan to make BIG drops in time when things get serious! Nonetheless, Kenya has sent Willy Tarbei's 1:44.51 and Kipyegon Bett's 1:44.55 to challenge! Watch for Morocco's Mostafa Smaili! Carlton Orange is the US best!
1500 (3:35.53) 20-80 I'd give this better odds, except for one thing---this is a Championship distance race! Enough said?? (Think jog & kick!) That said, the Kenyans (Kumari Taki and Anthony Kiptoo) have PR's of sub-3:37's! Djibouti's Mohamed Ibrahim's 3:37.08 is close! The youngest of the Norwegian Ingebrigtsen clan--Jakob--is here. Best American is Austin Tamagno, who might dip under 3:42!!
5000 (13:08.57) NOPE!! The fastest guy is Eritrea's Aron Kofle, but he probably can't do it alone! Moses Koech also has a sub-13:20 time, so he should offer some help. Nonetheless, the MR is secure! The US pair won't be anywhere near!!
10000 (27:30.85) 40-60) Aron Kofle is in this also, and this event is before the 5K, so he might gun it! He's run 27:27! Rodgers Kasemoi has a 27:42, so might challenge. Forget the Americans, who have yet to break 30!!
3000SC (8:06.10) Some of these MR's are amazing, and this is one of those!! So--it ain't going down!! The winner should come from among Yemena Haileselassie of Eritrea, Kenya's Vincent Rutto or Amos Kirui, or Djibouti's Mohamed Ibrahim, who's running the 1500 also! Again, forget the US team!!
10000 Walk (39:27.10) Unlike 2014, where this MR was set, no one is even close here!! ZERO!! That is, unless Spain's Manuel Bermudez improves his PR by a full minute!! Watch for Mexico's Noel Ali Chama and Great Britain's Callum Wilkinson.
110H (12.99) This is the 39 inch hurdle version! And there's no one even remotely in range of 13 flat!! Again, ZERO!! But the Americans MIGHT sweep this one! (Yeah, right!!) Marcus Krah, Amere Lattin, and Grant Holloway are the US trio, but watch for Australia's Nicholas Andrews, and James Weaver of Great Britain to crash the US party!
400H (48.51) 50-50! Jamaica's Jaheel Hyde is here!! His best is "just" 48.81, but my guess is he's very close to being the next GREAT 400H man--maybe a year away from going sub-48!! Taylor McLaughlin of the US has the DNA, but isn't yet in Hyde's park (pun intended!!). Mikael De Jesus might surprise.
HJ (7-9.25, or 2.37) No MR here either!! No one's PR over even 7-5!! Ones to watch are Yuji Hiramatsu (Japan), Jah Nhai Perinchief (Bermuda), Oleksandr Baranniko (Ukraine), and Luis Zayso (Cuba). Best of the US is Darrius Corbin.
LJ (26-11, or 8.20) 40-60 odds! We have Cuba's Maykel Masso, with a 27-2 PR! Greece has Mittiadis Tentaglou, and there's another Cuban, Juan Echevaria, both worth a look. The US pair are JaMari Ward and Harrison Schrage.
TJ (56-2.50, or 17.13) Cuba's Lazaro Martinez was a real find as a 16 year old a couple of years back. But haven't heard as much from him since! If he's on, this record is gone! But I'm playing it safe, so my odds are just 20-80!! Azerbaijan's Nazim Babayev could challenge, as could the other Cuban, Cristian Napoles. JaMari Ward is the top American.
PV (18-8.75, or 5.71) While no one is within 4 inches of it, I'm giving this MR 40-60 odds of falling! Probably the best field event, it has Adam Hague of Great Britain, as well as Chris Nilsen and Mondo Duplantis of the US! Watch also for Emmanouil Karalis of Greece, Jake Wooten, Kurtis Marschall of Australia, as well as the 3rd American, Deakin Volz!
Except for the JT, the other 3 throws use the "junior" weights, of which this blog & Record Book doesn't care about!! Nonetheless, I'll present brief previews of each!
SP (72-10 for 6kg) Konrad Bukowiecki! He wins! Romania's Andrei Touder is good, as are the US 3-some of Jordan Geist, Tripp Piperi, and Bronson Osborn! Just out of Buko's league!! 100-0!!
DT (220-10 for 1.75kg) The Big Guy (See SP!) is here too, but not as talented in this event! Better might be Clemens Prufer of Germany, who has a PR of 217-10. His teammate is Martin Howe. Sweden has Jakof Gardenkrens.
HT (280-9 for 6kg) Bence Halasz of Hungary is the best here, but far from the MR. Finland has Aleksi Jaakkola, while Egypt sends Ahmed Ismail, and Ukraine offers Hbib Piskunov. Bobby Colantonio and Adam Kelly are a good US duo!
JT (272-5, or 83.04) This is the Pro size Adult Javelin!! FYI Odds here are 30-70, as Neeraj Chopra of India has a PR of 268 and change! Watch for Turkey's Emin Oncal.
Decathlon (8135, with "junior" weights & hurdle height) No one in this field has a score over 8000, so I'm giving this one 10-90 odds! Germany has Jan Ruhrmann, who has the best mark! Santiago Ford of Cuba, and Niklas Kaul of Germany are also in the 7900's! Watch for the American, Cale Wagner, to get closer to 8000--but not THAT close!!
4X100 Relay (38.66) It's more difficult to predict the Relays in Junior or HS meets, not being as familiar with anyone but the major stars--if there are any on anyone's team!! That said, the US and Jamaica are always in for a solid tussle. In 2014, US teams came VERY close to the MR's, but both stayed alive. But I'll give this one 70-30 odds. The US should have both Michael Norman and Noah Lyles! If so, the odds get a bit better!!
4X400 Relay (3:01.09) Same analysis applies here as for the shorter Relay! (See above!) Again, watch the US and Jamaica. Will Norman run here too?? If so, he might be pretty tired!! But I'll turn the short relay's odds around, from 70-30 to 30-70!!
I'll have the Women's predictions up in a couple of hours!
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