Friday, August 21, 2015

2015 World Championships Preview--Men (Part 1)

Some quick notes before I begin this MASSIVE preview.
1. This Preview is being divided into 2 posts--one for each gender.
2. I'm doing the events in the order of the Finals, NOT in the usual sequence (100, 200, 400, etc).
3. I'll list the World and Meet Records.  If they're one and the same, I'll list it only once!
4. I'll name some major players, but will NOT be making absolute predictions as to medalists!
5. I'll add a quickie review of what happened at the last WC--in 2013 in Moscow!
6. The Men's post--this one-- is being done first.  The Women's will follow in a couple of hours after I post this one!
(See NOTE at bottom of this post!  Important!)

Hope this adds to your enjoyment of the meet!

Marathon--August 22
(WR-2:02:57  MR-2:06:54)
The WR holder is here!
And so is a former WR holder!
In fact, this might be the BEST field ever in a Championship meet Marathon!
Watch for Dennis Kimetto, Stephen Kiprotich, Lelisa Desisa, Wilson Kipsang (Kiprotich), Yemere Tsegay, Berhane Lemi, and Mark Korir.
The Meet Record SHOULD go, but the weather and "tactics" might slow these guys down!
Jeff Eggleston, the fastest American, has the 27th best PR of the 68 entrants!
In 2013, Stephen Kiprotich won in 2:09:51, followed by Lelisa Desisa in 2:10:12.
Jeff Eggleston was top American in 13th place!.
Sixteen runners broke 2:15:00.

10000--August 22
(WR-26:17.53  MR-26:46.31)
This is SUPPOSED to be a Coronation for Mo Farah.
But this time around, a Kenyan named Geoffrey Kamworor might put a few thorns in Mo's crown!
His altitude Trials run of 27:11 is probably worth a 26:40 at sea level!
If he (and the other Kenyans) take it out in 13:15 or 13:20, Farah might have to actually WORK for his 1st Gold!
Besides Kamworor, also look for Bedan Muchiri, Paul Tanui, Imane Merga, Ali Kaya, Muhfar Edris, and MAYBE Galen Rupp and Cam Levins!
The MR isn't THAT tough, and it DID happen at a WC!!
Rupp has only the 21st best time in 2015 of the entrants!
Farah won the Moscow final in 27:21.71.
Rupp finished 4th.

20000 Walk--August 23
(WR-1:16:36  MR-1:17:21)
The WR holder--Yusuka Suzuki--is here!
Watch for the Chinese Walkers--Zhen Wang & Ding Chen.
Jose & Sergio Vicira of Portugal are 39 year old twins!
Both the WR and MR are vulnerable, but the WR probably won't go down!
The 2013 race was won in 1:20:58 by Aleksandr Ivanov, followed by Chen in 1:21:09.

Shot Put--August 23
(WR-75-10.25 or 23.12  MR-72-11.25 or 22.23)
Can Joe Kovacs match his early season BOMBS?
Is David Storl unbeatable?
Besides those 2, watch for Christian Cantwell, Reese Hoffa, Tomasz Majewski, O'Dayne Richards, Thomas Walsh, Jordan Clarke, Maksim Sidorov, and Asmir Kolasinic.
There's also a "battle" of the "children".
They are Jacko Gill (20) and Konrad Bukowiecki (18).
The MR could go!
(So might several Place records!)
David Storl won the Moscow event with 71-3.50.
There were 3 over 70.

Hammer Throw--August 23
(WR-284-7 or 86.74  MR-274-4 or 83.63)
Pawel Fajdek is the only thrower with a PR better than the MR!
So that Record CAN go!
He's also the ONLY thrower with a 2015 best of over 80 meters!
But watch for Krisztian Pars and Ivan Tikhon.
The latter has a PR of 84.51, but has thrown just 77.46 in 2015!
Fajdek won in 2013 with 268-11.
There were 3 over 260 feet!

100--August 23
(WR & MR-9.58)
Well, this is IT!
Or is it?
Bolt vs Gatlin, Act 1.
And yes, there ARE others in the field!
Names like Tyson Gay, Asefa Powell, Trayvon Bromell, Jimmy Vicaut, Keston Bledman, Mike Rodgers, Femi Ogunode, Andre De Grasse, Chris Lemaitre, Churandy Martina, and 39 year old Kim Collins!
Collins is about 6 years older than Gatlin and Gay, and about 10 years older than Bolt!
Bolt beat Gatlin in Moscow, 9.77 to 9.85.
There were 5 under 10.00 in the Final!
Rodgers had the fastest Heat--9.98.
Nickel Ashmeade ran the fastest Semi--9.90!

Pole Vault--August 24
(WR-20-1.75 or 6.14  MR-19-10.25 or 6.05)
Both the WR and MR can fall!
Renaud Lavillenie is the MAN!!
If anyone's to challenge him, watch for Shawn Barber.
But he's had a LONG season as a Collegian in the US.
Also look for Raphael Holzdeppe, Piotr Lisek, Konstadinis Filippidis, Pawel Wojcieckowski, and Thiagio Da Silva.
But Brad Walker is the only other 6 meter Vaulter here!
Holzdeppe beat Lavillenie on misses in 2013, both Vaulting 19-3.75.
There were 5 at 19 feet or higher!

3000 Steeplechase--August 24
(WR-7:53.63  MR-8:00.43)
If Evan Jager stays on his feet, will he win?
And will he dip under 8:00 (AND the MR!!) in doing so.
I say he CAN, but Championship distance races are usually tactical.
(Is 8:00.43 "tactical"??)
Also watch for the eccentric Ezekiel Kemboi, the Kipruto's (Consesius & Brimim), and Benjamin Kiplagat.
I'd add Jairus Birech to that list, but rumor is he was recently ill with malaria!
Why is Sepolai Yao of Papua New Guinea in this field?
His lifetime PR is---9:28.00!!
Several Place records could fall here!
Kemboi won the Moscow affair with 8:06.01, beating C Kipruto's 8:06.37.
Five were faster than 8:10.
The fastest heat was 8:15.43.

Long Jump--August 25
(WR & MR-29.4.50 or 8.95)
The Records are VERY safe!!
The major players SHOULD be Jeff Henderson, Greg Rutherford, Aleksandr Menkov, and Zarek Visser.
It would be nice to see at least ONE 28 foot jump!
Menkov was the 2013 winner with 28-1.
There were 5 over 27 feet.
But the top American placed just 11th then!
That SHOULD change here!

400H--August 25
(WR-46.78  MR-47.18)
Those Records won't be touched!
No one's even gotten under 48 seconds this year!
Best of the bunch are Michael Tinsley, Jehue Gordon, LJ Van Zyl, Javiar Culson, Johnny Dutch, Kerron Clement, Nicholas Bett, and Bershawn Jackson.
Gordon beat Tinsley in Moscow, 47.69 to 47.70!
They were the only 2 under 48.

800--August 25
(WR-1:40.91  MR-1:43.06.)
The MR is vulnerable.
Nijel Amos, Mohammed Aman, David Rudisha, Adam Kszczot, Pierre Ambroise-Bosse, Ferguson Rotich, Amel Tuha, and Marcin Lewindowski. are the players to watch.
With the 1st 3 passing on automatically to the Semi's in each heat, it doesn't look too good for Nick Symmonds's replacement, Clayton Murphy.
His PR is only the 5th fastest in his Heat!!
Speaking of Mr Symmonds, he took Silver in Moscow in 1:43.55 behind Aman's 1:43.31.
Three dipped under 1:44.00.
The fastest Heat & Semi were 1:44.93 and 1:43.87!

Javelin Throw--August 26
(WR-323-1 or 98.48  MR-304-5 or 92.78)
Even though there hasn't been a 300 footer for a few years, I'm going to predict we COULD see one (or 2??) of them here!
Thus, the MR is a possibility--even if a weak one!
Julius Yego is the top man, but close behind are Thomas Rohler, Keshorn Walcott, Viteslav Vesely, Ihab El Sayed, Tero Pitkamaki, and Antti Ruuskanen.
Some Place marks could fall here!
Vesely won the Moscow event with 286-0.
There were 4 over 280.
No American made the Final!

400--August 26
(WR & MR-43.18)
SAFE!!
But with 3 guys already under 44 this year, and with Lashawn Merritt NOT being one of them, I see a winning time of under 44 this year!
A Place record or 2 might go as well.
Besides Merritt, we have Kirani James, Isaac Makwala, Wayde Van Niekerk, Abdelelah Haroun, Steven Gardiner, and Michael Cedeno.
Also watch out for Deon Lendore, Liguelin Santos, and the Age 36 Wonder, Chris Brown.
Merritt's 43.74 dominated the 2013 race!
The fastest Heat & Semi were 44.92 and 44.60.

Folks, there's 11 more events to Preview, and this post is already too long!
So I've decided to divide my Previews into TWO posts for each gender, thus making for a total of FOUR Preview posts!!

I ended this section with the last of the August 26th Finals.
The next section will finish the meet's events for the Men!
That will be followed immediately (about 2 hours apart??) by the first of the Women's two sections!!

See you in a bit with more Men's WC Preview!!



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