They're calling it the WORLD Relays., second edition.
(It's NOT an annual meet, as they're apparently skipping next year!)
But when you've read through the following, you'll see that TWO nations (out of umpteen on the planet) are set to take home most, if not all, of the Gold medals!
I was waiting for the final heat sheets to come out, so I could be certain of who's on which team in what event, BUT....when the first day's entries were released, it only showed the names of the teams, with NO indication of the athletes involved!
Soooooo....I'm going to have to mostly wing it, using the entry lists from a few days ago, not being 100% certain of who might have dropped out, gotten injured, etc.
However, as noted, when you have just TWO teams winning everything (??), not much extra research is necessary.
As with the Payton Jordan preview (See earlier post from today!), I'll go event by event, with the Men first.
But let's begin with the schedule!
Day 1--May 2
(All times are Pacific Time!)
11:00 a.m.--M 4X400 Heats
11:29 a.m.--W 4X200 Heats
11:46 a.m.--M 4X100 Heats
12:09 p.m.--M 4X800 FINAL
12:32 p.m.--W 4X400 Heats
1:02 p.m.---W DMR FINAL
1:29 p.m.---M 4X100 FINAL (B race--I guess they're doing it as a 2-section race!)
1:36 p.m---W 4X200 FINAL
1:52 p.m.---M 4X100 FINAL (A race)
Day 2--May 3
11:00 a.m.--M 4X200 Heats
11:20 a.m.--W 4X100 Heats
11:40 a.m.--W 4X800 FINAL
12:02 p.m.--W 4X400 FINAL (B race)
12:12 p.m.--W 4X400 FINAL (A race)
12:31 p.m.--M DMR FINAL
12:57 p.m.--M 4X400 FINAL (B race)
--M 4X400 FINAL (A race)
1:06 p.m.---M 4X200 FINAL
1:23 p.m.---W 4X100 FINAL (B race)
1:30 p.m.---W 4X100 FINAL (A race)
Okay, now for the serious stuff!
4X100-Men
IF--and it's a HUGE IF!!--the US team passes perfectly, they should win....DESPITE Jamaica having Usain Bolt on anchor!
Jamaica has some other good guys, but the US has FOUR guys who, together, outweigh the brilliance of one man (God??).
It's Gatlin, Gay, Mike Rodgers and Ryan Bailey vs Bolt, Nesta Carter, Kemar Bailey-Cole and a player to be named later!
With PERFECT passing (a MUST!!), I'm giving it to the US by a couple of hairs!
Everybody else should have saved their travel expenses!
That said, Japan has Yoshihide Kiryu, France has Jimmy Vicaut and Chris Lemaitre, Great Britain has Rich Kilty, and Nigeria has Mark Jelks.
One interesting name for Antigua is Rai Benjamin!
Yes, the same Rai Benjamin who tore up INdoor tracks this winter as a HS senior....which he still is!
It appears he holds dual Antigua-USA citizenship!
One person missing is Kim Collins from the St Kitts & Nevis squad!
Nothing personal, it seems--he just had a previously scheduled appointment elsewhere!!
(HA!)
4X200-Men
Jamaica by more hairs than 2!
With Warren Weir and Nickel Ashmeade leading up to Mr Bolt, I have to give Jamaica the edge here, even though the US again has a VERY strong team.
There's Gatlin and Bailey again, plus Wallace Spearmon.
Passes aren't quite as "risky" in this longer race as in the 4X100, so not much to worry about here.
Carvin Nkanata, the guy who ran 20.14 a few weeks ago, leads the Kenyan team, but based on what I know, the other 3 won't help much!
Rai Benjamin is again on the Antigua team.
So that's one each, so far, for the US and Jamaica!
4X400-Men
If someone (literally!) DIES enroute, the US will lose.
However, God forbid that happening, the Americans are a LOCK DELUXE to top the podium here!
With David Verburg, Brycen Spratling, Tony McQuay, and Lashawn Merritt as the US foursome, they appear unbeatable.
One question is whether Jeremy Wariner will run just the heats, or whether he'll run the final!
But whatever their line-up, the USA should take it.
Belgium, of course, has the 3 Borlee's, plus someone else.
Martyn Rooney leads the British team.
Lelonde Gordon heads Trinidad and Tobago's squad.
Chris Brown will be the home team's hero....again (even at age 36!)
Luguelin Santos heads the Dominican Republic 4-some.
And 800 specialist Nijel Amos heads Botswana's team!
Now it's 2 to 1, US over Jamaica, after 3 events!
4X800-Men
I don't know who the Kenyans are.
Oh, I know their names, but have no idea what kind of speed they have.
When you have a team of unknowns, you go with the "other" team.
That "other" team is again the good old US of A.
And they're not half-bad!
There's 5 guys listed, so one will either be just a back-up (in case!), or be transferred to the DMR (or just not run at all!!).
But a team of Robby Andrews, Eric Sowinski, Duane Solomon, Brandon Johnson, and/or Casimir Loxsom won't only win, they COULD threaten the World Record (7:02.43 by Kenya in 2006) and/or the American Record (7:02.82, also in 2006, in the SAME RACE--the Brussels meet!)
To get either record, they'd need to average AT LEAST 1:45.70 per leg (or 1:45.60 for the WR!).
But unless they have a SERIOUS challenger, they'll win, but the record(s) will remain!
It's 3 to 1, US over Jamaica!
Oh, BTW, there ARE other teams in the race!
Ryan Gregson leads the Aussies.
Tim Kiptum is the only known Kenyan name, but I haven't seen his name at or near the top of any lists recently, soooo....!!
Poland does have Marcin Lewandowski and Adam Kszczot, but you don't win major races with 2 guys!
DMR-Men
Again, it comes down to an unknown (to me!) Kenyan team vs a MOSTLY known US squad!
I say "mostly" for a good reason!
Two of the US's runners are also listed as starters (on the FINAL heat sheets issued yesterday!) for the 800 at the Payton Jordan meet.
They are Andy Wheating and Mac Fleet.
I've heard (but not confirmed!) that Wheating is OUT from both meets, due to a recent blister problem!
But what of Fleet?
The rest of the US team SHOULD be enough to win here, even if they have to recruit 1 or 2 from other events!
(Jeremy Wariner??)
There's Kyle Merber, Ben Blankenship, and Will Leer left.
The WR is 9:15.56.
That works out to about 2:50 for the 1200, 45 for the 400, 1:45 for the 800, and 3:55 for the 1600.
(You can shake a second off here, add a second there!)
But again, without SERIOUS competition, that record is safe.
The top of the podium, however, is under USA control!
Although Australia has Ryan Gregson...AND recent Penn Relays 4X1Mile HERO, Jordan Williamsz on their team!!
Can Williamsz do it again....albeit NOT against Ed Cheserek??
NO!
USA by a 4 to 1 margin on the Men's side!!
ZERO for anyone else!
Now let's see how the "dual meet" will go on the Women's side.
4X100-Women
The Jamaican team--at least to my limited knowledge--is up in the air.
WHO is running?
Veronica Campbell-Brown--I THINK---is running.
But not SAFP!
The United States, however, has a VERY strong 4-some!
Carmelita Jeter, Tianna Bartoletta, Jeneba Tarmoh, AND Allyson Felix!!
Caveat: WILL they get the baton around the track??
HUGE question mark (as with the men!)!!
IF they do, and despite no top-notch times so far this year, I can't see the US losing!
Unless Nigeria runs to the top of their game!!
They have Blessing Okagbare and Gloria Asumnu on their team.
But 2 needs 2 more to make 4!
An interesting member of the home team (Bahamas!) is 39 year old Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie!
Is she the female version of Kim Collins?
Michelle Lee Ayhe leads the Trinidad & Tobago team.
Verena Sailer tops the German squad.
Mujinga Kambundji heads the Swiss team.
And Irene Ekeland is on the Swedish 4-some.
But I have to give it to the US!
1-zip, US over Jamaica!
4X200-Women
IF....IF Jamaica has 2 others who can run even with the US, besides VCB and SAFP (who IS running here!), then they'll give the less-than-super US team a race!
Not taking anything away from Kim Duncan, Shalonda Solomon, and High School Pro Kaylin Whitney, none of them can stay with VCB and SAFP at their best!
Question is, WILL those two be at their best?
(Whitney ran a GREAT anchor at Penn in the 4X100!!)
Nigeria has a good team here, with Okagbare, Dominique Duncan, and Regina George, plus someone else.
The Bahamas have Anthonique Strachan and Shaunae Miller!
Kambundji leads Switzerland again!
This one is a toss-up, BUT....I'll give the edge to Jamaica this time.
With SAFP and VCB leading Jamaica, the US has too much catch up to do!
So it's 1 to 1 for the top teams on the women's side!
BTW, I don't see the World or American records going down here!!
4X400-Women
WHY are the other teams here?
To enjoy the beaches, music, and food?
Probably.
While they're doing THAT, the Americans will be winning this event....with EASE!!
How can you deny a US squad that has Jessica Beard, Natasha Hastings, Francena McCorory, and SRR, better known as Sanya Richards-Ross??
Jamaica---I THINK!--will have Novlene Williams-Mills and Stephanie McPherson, but again, you do NOT win a race needing FOUR runners when you have just TWO!
That said, there ARE unknowns here!
Who has dropped out of the Jamaica team...if anyone?
Great Britain also has two good ones, in Seren Bundy-Davies and Shana Cox.
Regina George leads Nigeria again!
But it's the US....by a country mile....so to speak!!
Two to one, US over Jamaica!
4X800-Women
The main question here is--Will the US team go for the American (and Meet) record they set last year?
They need to average 2:00.39 (or very close to that) to get that 8:01.58 AR.
But a team of Maggie Vessey, Chanelle Price, Molly Ludlow, and new mother Alysia Montano CAN run that fast...or even dip under the magic 8:00 barrier!
Question is...What can the unknown (to moi!!) Kenyan women run?
With limited knowledge of them, I'd say the US should have an easy go of it!
And that makes chasing a MAJOR record VERY difficult!
And it doesn't REALLY matter that Ajee Wilson and Brenda Martinez aren't running.
Zoe Buckman runs for Australia.
Sahily Diago leads Cuba.
And Natoya Goule heads Jamaica's team!
But it's really no contest here.
US up by 3 to 1 for the women!
DMR-Women
Sign the others up for margaritas with umbrellas on the beautiful Bahaman beaches near their posh hotels!
Who needs them, when you have the next WORLD Record team at FULL power here?
The United States team of Gabe Grunewald, Treniere Moser, Ajee Wilson, and Shannon Rowbury are capable of going UNDER 10:30!!
That would be 18+ seconds faster than the OUTdoor WR, set by a Villanova team 27 years ago, time of 10:48.38.
And it would be more than 12 seconds better than a NB-US team ran INdoors this year, time of 10:42 and change!
What's needed for a 10:30?
Grunewald needs to run 3:10 over 1200 meters.
Moser (??) runs the 400 in 55.
Wilson does 2:00 for her 800.
And Rowbury would need to anchor the 1600 in 4:25.
Again, you can adjust the times by a second or 2 or 3 for each leg, and still get a 10:30 final time!!
NO ONE will be close at the end.
UNLESS that ubiquitous UNKNOWN (to yours truly, tra la la!) Kenyan team pops a shocker!
I'm guessing they won't!
So, bottom line, that makes the final totals---for the ten races (5 each for the 2 genders)--
Eight to Two, USA over Jamaica!
NO Golds for any other team!!
Will that happen?
Maybe.
Probably not.
(One dropped pass messes everything up!!)
As for records, I see WORLD Records in the Men's 4X200 (close!), Men's 4X800 (maybe!), and the Men's DMR (but probably not!)
So NO guaranteed records on the Men's side.
The Women, however, WILL get the DMR World Record!
The others are safe.
(Although 1 or 2 folks are saying the Jamaican 4X200 Women will snag the WR here!! But not me!)
As for American Records, I see the Men's 4X800 as a slight possibility.
Again, the Women's US DMR team has the WR already checked off their To-Do list!
Well, that does it!
Enjoy the meet.
Or should I say meet(s)??
I'll be watching Flotrack's (hopefully) perfect coverage of the Payton Jordan, but keeping a VERY close eye on the first day results from the Bahamas!
(The PJ meet is a 1 day affair, the Bahamas meet finishes on Sunday!)
See you Sunday evening or early Monday morning with a FULL DETAILED report from the 2 meets, plus whatever else goes down this weekend!
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