Friday, May 1, 2015

Stanford is all about DISTANCE

It's the Payton Jordan Invitational, held on the campus where he coached for many years, and it's tomorrow!
About 8 hours of non-stop action, most of it centered on distance running, from the 800 to the 10000.
Following is my preview of who's running what, and whether we can expect any records or list-making marks.
The weather should be perfect.
Most of the athletes have already run fast this year, and seek to run faster (or in different events).
This Stanford meet always produces a legion of fast times, and deep fields.
I'll be watching via Flotrack's livestream.
My preview follows, event by event, men first.

800-Men
Section 1 is the big race.
BUT there's some confusion as to who's running, DESPITE having the final heat sheets stating Andy Wheating and Mac Fleet are among the stars.
You see, they're ALSO listed for tomorrow's World Relays DMR team for the USA!
Obviously, they can't be both places!
If they're not here, Ed Kemboi and Mark Wieczorek will be the ones to watch.
Don't expect any super fast times.
Maybe 1:45, but more likely closer to 1:46.
Section 2 has Tomas Squella.
Section 3 has Richard Jones.

1500-Men
Section 1 is loaded!  Lawi Lalang, Nate Brannen, Evan Jager, and Ryan Hill lead the field.
But watch out also for Christian Soratos, Andy Bayer, and Jack Bolas.
Brannen probably will NOT get Kevin Sullivan's National record for Canada!
Jager and Hill could get times good enough for my Top 24 US list (3:34.25 is needed!).
Section 2 has Nick Symmonds, German Fernandez, Robby Creese, and Kirubel Erassa.
Symmonds & Fernandez are also NOT yet on the US list!
Section 3 has 3 former or current HSers to watch.
Ben Saarel and Blake Haney, Collegiates, will be facing Grant Fisher.
24th on the Collegiate list is 3:37.33.
Fisher isn't yet on the OUTdoor 1500 list, but might be more interested in topping the 2015 HS leader, Matt Maton's 3:42.54--which is worth a sub-4:00 mile!!
They'll have Chad Noelle to lead the way.

3000SC-Men
Section 1 has a clear favorite, Dan Huling.
Stan Kebenai and Ben Bruce are in this section too.
Kebenai has an 8:24.95 PR from 2013.
There's no really elite runners in Section 3, but there IS a guy whose NAME......well, let's just say it fits this event really well.
His name is....TRIPP HURT.
He runs for Furman University.

5000-Men
Section 1 is the biggie.
Lopez Lomong is the former INdoor AR holder.
But he'll be challenged by Diego Estrada, Garrett Heath, Trevor Dunbar, David Torrence, and Will Leer, who is looking to run a LOT faster than his 13:20 PR!
Two foreigners will be serious contenders.
They are Jamaica's Kemoy Campbell and Norway's Henrik Ingebrigtsen.
In fact, Ingebrigtsen could easily be considered the favorite!.
I could see a possible sub-13:00 here, but only IF they work together the ENTIRE way, and push the pace, no "strategizing"!
Section 2 has Cory Leslie and Sean McGorty.
Missing is Galen Rupp, as the NOP crew pulled out, with the excuse of "schedule changes".

10000-Men
Section 1 has the real elites.
Watch mainly for Ben True, whose 27:41.17 PR from 2012 is just 22nd on the US list.
He COULD move way up!
Bobby Curtis, Mo Ahmed, Shadrack Kipchirchir, Ryan Vail, Hassan Mead, Jake Riley, Paul Shrader, Tyler Pennel, and Parker Stinson could run good times too, as well as Great Britain's Andy Vernon.
If True runs up to his potential, a sub-27:00 is possible.
Most likely, we'll see a bunch of sub-27:40's, with True maybe at 27:15 to 27:20.

The Women have lots to offer too!
Let's take a look!

800-Women
Section 1 has Natalya Piliusina, Claudia Saunders, and Melissa Bishop.
But watch for INdoor 600 gal, Hanna Green, whose 1:28.78 promises a fast 800.
Section 2 has Lynsey Harper and Maddie Berkson.
But don't expect any sub-2:00's here.

1500-Women
Section 1, as always, has most of the big names.
If she'd shown a bit more so far in her Frosh year at Stanford, I'd list Elise Cranny as the clear favorite.
But alas, she's run hot and cold...so to speak.
So watch for Stephanie Charnigo, who shone INdoors, Stephanie Schappert, Cory McGee, Brie Felnagle, Kate Van Buskirk, and Katrina Coogan to offer a challenge to Cranny.
A dark horse could be Villanova's Angel Piccirillo, who ran some great relay legs at Penn last week!
Cranny and Piccirillo would need to run 4:10.79 or faster to make the A-T Collegiate list!
Mary Cain, who will NOT run here (See NOP note above!), is in 24th place on the US list.
I doubt anyone will displace her here!
Section 2 has Hillary Stellingwerf and Viola Lagat.
But it also has Phoebe Wright, who took 3rd in that VERY loaded 13 woman 800 field at Drake last week!
If she's RACING (instead of pacing!), look for a possible 1500 PR from her.
I believe it's in the 4:08 zone now.
Section 3 has USATF INdoor 1000 winner Lauren Wallace of Oiselle leading the way.
Sarah Feeny, a Collegiate Frosh, ran a 4:39 Mile last year in HS.
But a CURRENT HSer is one to watch!
Remember Cranny's big breakthrough happened right here in 2013, when she ran 4:15.07 in a field of Collegiates.
Another Colorado HSer, Katie Rainsberger---just an 11th Grader!--could come close to that time!
She's that talented!
Bridget Franek is either pacing this section, or looking for a good fast prep for her Steeplechase season!
Section 4 has another renowned Steepler in Shalaya Kipp!  Is she also looking at this as a speed test?

3000SC-Women
Section 1 has Aisha Praught, Colleen Quigley, and Courtney Frerichs, as well as Puerto Rico's Bev Ramos.
I'd look for a definite sub-9:40 time here.
Frerichs's 9:49.06 PR is now 24th on the Collegiate list.
Will she move up...and how far?
Quigley's PR is 9:38.23.
But Praught and Ramos should be the top 2.
Jamie Cheever will headline Section 2.
But is she anywhere near her 9:29.13 shape from 2013?
Haven't seen any evidence of that!

5000-Women
Section 1, natch, has most of the stars.
Sally Kipyego is the clear leader.
Last year, she ran the 10K in 30:42, winning over Molly Huddle's 30:47.
That time is equivalent to about 14:45 to 14:50.
She's run faster.
How fast does she WANT to go?
If Sally guns it, no one will stay close!
It would be a solo race against time.
If she's closer to 15:00 or 15:10, look for Betsy Saina, Marielle Hall, and Katie Mackey to be her main challengers.
But a few others offer intriguing possibilities!
Namely, former Collegiate standout Abbey D'Agostino, in what I believe is her first SERIOUS track 5000 since she left Dartmouth.
But look also for CURRENT Collegiate star Dominique Scott to challenge.
Rachel Johnson might run good, as well as Ashley Higginson, normally a Steepler, and Angela Bizzari.
Erin Finn is also in this section, but she's still emerging from injury, despite her 15:41 from a week or so ago, so don't expect her to run up to her 15:26 PR from last year!
Yet!
Section 2 offers some intriguing names too.
But it looks like Chelsea Reilly, Stephanie Garcia, and Juliet Bottorff will be the leaders of this section.
Sheila Reid, the Canadian  star, is coming back from injury, and this is, I believe, her first race back!
She's CAPABLE of a 15:00 time, but I highly doubt she's READY for it!
Last but certainly not least (in the intriguing category) is HS Pro Alexa Efraimson.
Formerly entered in the 1500 also, she's now listed ONLY in the 5000.
Whatever she runs, she'll set the HS PRO record!
The "amateur" HSR is, of course, Mary Cain's 15:45.46 from 2013.
I'm predicting a time of UNDER 15:30 for Efraimson!
She ran 1500 in 4:09.43 at Mt SAC, and looked good doing so.
IMHO, she's capable of surpassing Cain's amateur AND Professional times in everything but the 800---NOW!!
So if the pace is right, and if she goes after it, a VERY fast time is possible!
Section 3 has the Collegiate Record holder, Lisa Uhl, in it.
But she's had some problems the past year or 2, so what she runs here is a BIG question mark!
Alice Wright, Christine Babcock, and Stanford's Sophie Chase might offer a challenge.

10000-Women
Section 1 leads the way.
I don't know if she's doubling, but Betsy Saina is listed here, as well as in the 5000.
Buze Diriba could be the winner here.
Others who could challenge are Neeley Spence Gracey, Alisha Williams, Emily Infeld, Alexi Pappas, as well as a few ladies better known as Half and Full Marathoners, namely Meghan Peyton, Kellyn Taylor, and Canada's Marathon record holder, Lanni Marchant, who said she was disappointed with her 32:11 at Mt SAC, and might be seeking the Canadian National record of 31:44 and change!
Susan Kuijken of the Netherlands has run 15:04 for 5000, so might be ready for a 31:00 10K.
But there's also a "race within a race" here!
I'm talking about the race to beat Uhl's Collegiate Record of 31:18.07 from 2010.
Emma Bates has said she wants it!
But Brit Kate Avery might have something to say about that!
And do NOT overlook Emily Sisson, who got the INdoor Collegiate record in the 5K this winter!
She appears VERY ready to go after the CR here!
Hopefully, they won't get locked into a strategic race for 2015 Collegiate supremacy instead!!
IF they SERIOUSLY go for it, and maybe even HELP each other through the first 8000 or so, then  that record is VERY likely to go down!!
The last character is this drama WAS an excellent Collegiate 10K girl!
Her name is Natosha Rogers.
She sort of disappeared after winning the 2012 NCAA 10K in 32:41 and change, then blasting through to a 31:59 in the Olympic Trials race.
This is her first KNOWN race back!
Section 2 offers Megan Goethals as the big name.
But watch out for Marathoners Serena Burla and Mattie Suver.

Whether my predictions come true or not, expect some real fireworks, and MASSIVE 2015 list adjustments at this always HOT meet.....and I ain't talking about the weather!!

My World Relays preview will follow in  a few hours!

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