We're just a few short hours before the World Junior Championships begins in Eugene, Oregon.
To help you enjoy the meet just a bit more, I'm offering my opinion as to which MEET Records might be broken.
I'll give a name or two of those who are most likely to break the record.
But I'll also tell you if the US HSR might go as well, even if that athlete doesn't get the Meet Record!
I'm dividing this into 2 posts, this one for the Men, the next for the Women.
I've broken the events down into 3 groupings, based on the odds of the MR going down.
The groupings are as follows:
A---These MR's are most likely to fall, the chances between 75 and 100%.
B---These MR's COULD go, but the odds fall anywhere between 25 and 74%!! Because the numbers are so divergent, I'll mention where about they stand on this scale.
C---These MR's are LEAST likely to fall, with the odds between 0 and 24%.
A
100 (10.05)
Trayvon Bromell could take this down in his semi! Then AGAIN in the final!!
Only the wind could save this record!
Kendell Williams could produce a solid HS time, but won't get the HSR!
200 (20.28)
Unless there's excessive wind, or Trentavis Friday is injured, this record is GONE!!
And he might even challenge the HSR of 20.13, as he had a windy 20.03 at USATF Jr's!
110H (13.18)
Three guys could challenge this record.
Wilhelm Belocian of France, David Omarizie of GB, and Tyler Mason of Jamaica.
TJ (55-11)
With 16 year old (!!) Cuban Lazaro Martinez in Eugene, this MR could be broken by a full foot or more!!
NOTE: I hesitate to even mention the Men's weight events, except for the Javelin Throw. Why? Because they use the so called "Junior" weights. My Record Book has United States HSR's listed for just two weights: 12 & 16 pounds in the SP, the International weights for the DT and HT, plus the US HS weights, which are NOT the "Junior" weights used in this meet!! Thus, I'm not really interested in these records!! I've chosen to give just cursory attention to these events. Note also that these exceptions do NOT apply to the WOMEN's weight events, which are the SAME from HS to the Professional level!! (See my blog from December 2013 about the Boys SP!!)
HT (265-1)
Ashref Elsify should smash this "record", though I'm not even sure what weight he used in his PR.
Decathlon (8059)
This is another event where "Junior" weight implements are used. I also do NOT keep "Junior" weight Decathlon records!
However, Jiri Sykora of the Czech Republic seems capable of getting this "record".
10000 Walk (39:35.01)
I don't keep Walk records, but Dalsuke Matsunaga of Japan has a PR that could challenge this one.
4X100 and 4X400 Relays (38.66 and 3:01.09)
With guys like Bromell and Friday on the 4X100, this record is almost certain to go down.
The 4X400 is a bit less likely to go, but I'd still put it on the lower part of the "A" category for the US.
B
1500 (3:35.53)
Saying middle distance and long distance records can be broken is a roll of the dice.
So many Championship races (1500 to 10000) are jog & kick affairs.
There may be qualified athletes to break the records, but they seldom choose to aggressively attack a record in these situations.
That said, you NEVER underestimate the Africans where fast times are concerned.
Hillary Ngetich and Jonathon Sawe of Kenya have sub-3:40 times, with Ngetich's PR being VERY close to the MR.
And this IS Hayward Field!!
5000 (13:08.57)
We have Moses Letoye of Kenya, Phillip Kipyego of Uganda, and Tsegay Tuemay of Eritrea to battle it out.
They'd need to chop close to 10 seconds from their PR's to get it!
10000 (27:30.85)
Joshua Cheptegai of Uganda and Tsegaye Mekannen of Ethiopia will lead this one.
Will they just go for the win, or the win AND the MR??
Cheptegai is just 17!!
LJ (26-11)
Jianan Wang of China and Travon White of the US have a chance at this MR.
But just a slim chance (closer to that 25% level!).
SP (72-10)
See Note above! This mark is held by Jacko Gill.
DT (220-10)
Less than 50% chance.
C
400 (44.66)
This is a toughie, as it's been rare for an Under-20 to go sub-45:00.
Michal Cedeno of Trinidad and Michael Cherry will give it a shot, but at best, will go just 44.9.
800 (1:43.79)
No one in the field is even close. The best PR is a 1:45+.
3000SC (8:06.10)
There doesn't appear to be any Kipruto's or Kemboi's in this, so this record should be safe.
Watch to see if Bailey Roth can FINALLY take down Jeff Hess's 1979 HSR of 8:50.1.
I don't care if he finishes LAST, as long as he gets that HSR!!
400H (48.51)
This record won't go down, but the fastest PR belongs to a 17 year old, Jaheel Hyde.
Ken Selmon is a US HS'er, but he probably won't go faster than 49.5 or so, if that! (He's also 17!)
HJ (7-9.25)
I think those 7-10 or higher Professionals can breathe easy for awhile.
This group won't get anywhere near this MR!!
PV (18-8.75)
Axel Chapelle of France has the best PR.
Watch Devin King, who recently vaulted 18-0 in a Street Vault!
The HSR might be in his sights!!
JT (272-5)
Safe.
Stay tuned for the Women!!
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