Long time readers of this blog know I often disparage Cross Country for being a relatively meaningless sector of the greater Track & Field world!
For a few reasons--
Courses are so varied (even over the same distance) that comparing times over the various courses becomes something far more complicated than rocket science!
Weather (Read--BAD weather!!) often affects a meet's results, making predictions far more unpredictable!
There are no lists (Yearly, or All-Time) of times in XC--except maybe those kept by various schools or states--not even by the NCAA, USATF, IAAF, Tilastopaia, or T&FN!!
But CAN one find meaning in all this?
What criteria is useful (Thank you, Tim Hutchings!) in determining the quality of a XC time?
The course's terrain?
The weather?
The number of "name" athletes running?
The margin by which you win--or break records?
Or all of the above?
(Hint--It's the latter!)
Once more, I turn to Katelyn Tuohy for my example.
She's run 3 races this season, and SMASHED 3 Course Records into oblivion!
(If you go back to the NXN race of 2017, she also broke THAT record---held by Katie Rainsberger!--by 11 seconds!)
So--3 races--3 wins--3 CR's--by margins of 90, then 67, and yesterday, by 51 seconds!
And the margin between Tuohy and the 2nd place finisher was even more incredible!!
Let's face it, you just don't find that in World, USATF, or NCAA Cross!!
If a CR is broken, it might be by a mere handful of seconds!
Margin of victory?
Often seeing 2 to 5 athletes finishing within a second or three of each other!
So is the Tuohy story so phenomenal seeming because it's High School?
Sometimes--male or female--you have a stand alone athlete who CRUSHES a field--or a Record!!---but even then, it's by 10 to 20 seconds, NOT 90, 67, and 51!!
Yet even in that NXN race last fall, Tuohy beat Kelsey Chmiel by 41 seconds!!
And as we know, Chmiel had a 9:18 3000 track time to her credit!!
Speaking of Chmiel, that first race of Tuohy's beat the CR held by---Ms Chmiel!
While the second one didn't beat a "name" athlete, yesterday's did!
Ever hear of Aisling Cuffe?
She ran a Two Mile track time of 9:54.22, and in College, ran 5000 in 15:13!!
Yet--even though she was NOT seriously chasing it (as she said would be her plan!), she took care of Ms Cuffe's mark by the aforesaid 51 seconds!!
So if any meaning is to come from XC times, we must look at X athlete's MARGIN of victory--and the MARGIN by which the athlete breaks the Record!!
(And WHO held the old Record!!)
But my problem doesn't really come from comparing XC times run over different courses!
No, it comes from trying to determine what kind of TRACK times can be predicted from those XC times!!
For example, Sarah Baxter holds the Mt SAC 3 Mile CR---16:00!
Back in 2013, she was then considered the greatest Female HS XC runner of A-T---and had been undefeated all 4 years of her HS career!
But her best time at 3200 meters was "just" 10:07.
And she was almost TIED in that race!!
Tuohy ran 16:44 at NXN last year.
Then ran 15:37, 9:05, and 4:33 on IN & OUTdoor tracks!
Now she's run 16:07 (& 16:21 & 16:54).
So does that indicate far faster times during the upcoming track seasons?
Cole Sprout ran 14:33 (See previous post!).
Does that mean he'll run close to 14:00 for a track 5000?
(Note--I say YES!!)
And if that's the case, why should predicted times of 4:25, 9:25, 15:10 & 31:20 (for Tuohy) seem so Looney Tuney??
(Note--To me, they do NOT!!)
So the MEANING of XC times must take MARGINS---of victory, and of the new CR--into account!
It still would negate any value given to those times if compared to Track times!
And weather--and how it affects the course---with mud, puddles, softness or hardness, ruts (which affect how or if an athlete ATTACKS a course!) being a HUGE factor in XC outcomes!
(The team factor isn't so important--especially when it comes to the podium spots for individuals!!)
And speaking of XC times---and margins of victory---the Pre-Nationals races (held on the same courses as the NCAA's will be--in Madison Wisconsin!) shone the spotlight on the first REALLY serious races of the 2018 season!!
Pardon my ignorance, but I just have no idea why the Pre-Nats were split into 4 races--2 for each sex!
Were they seen as "Varsity" and "Junior Varsity"?
Or "B", then "A" races?
Some pretty fair runners ran in those "secondary" races!!
In the Men's (Let's call it their B race!!) B race, Rory Linkletter had some company at the line!
His 23:54 beat Aidan Tooker's 23:55, while Chris Olley also timed 23:55, with Connor Mantz's 23:56 taking 4th!
While Olley is unknown to me, the other three are good runners, not usually found in "B" races!!
(BTW, since times aren't really important in XC, I round those times up or down to the nearest full second. Thus, a 23:54.5 to 23:54.9 is rounded UP to 23:55, while a 23:54.1 to 23:54.4 is rounded down--to 23:54!)
The Women's B race went to Jessica Hull's 20:03.
She beat Arkansas Frosh--via Australia!!--Katrina Robinson by 6 seconds!
Audrey Roberts ran 20:10, with Erica Birk taking 4th in 20:12.
Bethany Hasz ran 20:18 in 5th!
The "Big Wheels" showed up in the A races!!
Grant Fisher outsprinted a Gang of Three, his 23:48 edging Tyler Day's & Matthew Baxter's same times (See above!)
Aaron Templeton ran 23:51 in 4th, with Joe Klecker's 23:55 taking 5th!
(Linkletter would've taken 5th here!!)
The Women's race saw Weini Kelati upset Ednah Kurgat---by TWELVE seconds!!--19:33 to 19:45!!
Another TEN back came Dorcas Wasike!
Elise Cranny was separated by another TWELVE seconds from Wasike--her time being 20:07.
Fiona O'Keefe (20:09) and Sharon Lokedi (20:12) followed!
Can we now say Kelati will be the NCAA Women's Champion?
If based on her TIME, then the answer is no!
But her MARGIN of victory---12 seconds--is significant.
Does it tell us Kurgat had a "bad" day?
Or that Kelati has become New Mexico's (& the NCAA's!) strongest runner??
Of course, November 17th will give us the answer, but it does offer some insight into the MEANING of XC times!!
(If that's the case with the Women, what does Fisher's razor thin margin tell you about the Men??)
BTW, the HS Women saw another interesting result!
WALKER (& Runner!!) Taylor Ewart crushed the field in an Ohio meet.
Her 16:57 was only the second time the 17 minute barrier was cracked by a Woman!!
(What would Tuohy have run??)
Again, not sure when my next post will be.
There are Conference, State, and Regional races left before the Biggies, and there's the NYC Marathon!!
But this IS my "vacation" time, so don't wake me before eleven!!
LOL
See you---whenever!
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