Miles for Women

I did a post in 2015---actually two of them!--on the Women's Mile race in the 2015 Van Damme (Brussels) Diamond League!
A class elite field had been announced--Faith Kipyegon, Sifan Hassan, Jenny Simpson, Shannon Rowbury, Abeba Aregawi, among others---and a VERY fast time was expected!
My initial post--Van Damme Women's MILE--a Preview--came out the day before the meet, on September 10th.
My Brussels results post--on the 11th--was titled Irony Defines Brussels Mile!
The "irony" was that the winner--Ms Kipyegon--ran 4:16.71, which happens to be the exact time of Mary Slaney's American Record--which I'd said might be a valid target for both Rowbury and Simpson in that race!
While there WERE some good results, it was nowhere near the top quality I'd spoken of in my Preview!

So why trod that shaky ground again?
Well, THIS year---in the space of the next 7 days--there will be THREE Women's One Mile races--in Lausanne later today, in London on the 9th, and in the Morton Games on the 12th!

IMPORTANT NOTE--ADDED a few minutes after I initially posted this!!
The Morton Games people just tweeted me that the Morton Games Women's Mile has been changed to a 1500--so some people can chase the Qualifying standard for the World Championships!!
Entered already--according to Morton officials--are Alexa Efraimson, Sara Sutherland, Nicole Tully, and Nicole Sifuentes!
See my comments about the Morton meet below!
And remember---NO Women's mile there---it's a 1500 this year!!
So take whatever I say below about this race with this ADDED NOTE in mind!!
My apologies!
(I'd tweeted them a half hour before starting this post, asking them for an entry list, but decided not to wait for a reply!)

I have the entry lists (or provisional entry list, in the case of London) for the first pair of meets, and pretty strong confidence that the Irish meet will also have a good field!
So following is my in-depth Preview of what Records might be broken, and who might find their way onto my World or US Top 24 Performers lists (or improve their place, if already on a list).

The World Record is 4:12.56, and Genzebe Dibaba might be in pursuit!
Jenny Meadows is being called on to pace the first 1000 in 2:36.
That's a heavy burden for a woman Age 36.
But Dibaba has a tendency to run her own race, as she did when Chanelle Price fell off pace in the Monaco 1500 of 2015. and Dibaba ran a 60 second 3rd lap on her way to her WR of 3:50.07!
However, the Lausanne field isn't very deep, with maybe Axumawit Embaye being her chief rival!

If they hit anywhere near that 2:36, that's 3:54 pace for 1500, which is 4:10 or 4:11 for the type of finish Genzebe is capable of!
If they hit 2:38, that's 3:57 for 1500, and 4:13 or 4:14 for the Mile!
Dibaba's OUTdoor PR is 4:14.30, from the 2016 race in Rovereto!

The London race has Laura Muir as its centerpiece, and while no pacers have been announced, I'd bet her idea is to chase the British Record of 4:17.57 by Zola (Budd) Pieterse in 1985!!
Her Mile best is 4:19.12, but her 1500 PR of 3:55.22 is 4:12 pace for the Mile!!
For her National Record, she'd need to come by 1500 no slower than 4:01.00!!

But let's look at ALL the potential Records these races could challenge!

Place Records don't have to be broken all in one race!
So any that survive the Lausanne race could fall in London.
(Again, I have ZERO info on entries for the Morton Games, but that race won't produce any Place Records!)

Place Records
2  (4:17.33)  Needs 4:00 or 4:01 at 1500!
3  (4:17.57)  Ditto!
4  (4:20.35)  A 4:03 would do it!
5 (4:21.13)  Maybe 4:03.50 to 4:04 low!
6 (4:21.92)  4:04 mid to 4:05!
7 (4:23.50)  Just a 4:06 or 4:07 at 1500!!
8 (4:24.31)  A 4:07 should do it!
9 (4:25.32) Need just 4:07 high to 4:08 & change!
10(4:26.84)If she passes 1500 in 4:09, give her 80-20 odds!

What are the Meet Records?
Lausanne's is just 4:21.30!!
Piece of cake for Dibaba, even if  SHE falls before the Record does!!  LOL
London has NO Meet Record, as far as I can tell!!
The Morton Games Meet Record has fallen twice in recent years--both times to Americans!!
Molly Huddle's 4:26.84 PR won the 2014 race!
(BTW, that 10th Place Record is NOT Huddle's---of course!)
In 2016, Katie Mackey took that down with her 4:25.48 PR!

How about Age Records?
I did my research, and got the birthdates of ALL the athletes entered in Lausanne and London!
So here's my take on which Age Records might go!
(If an Age isn't listed, it means no entrants of that Age are listed for the first 2 meets!)

18 Fantu Worku is the only 18 year old (Again, no knowledge of Morton's entries yet!), and should get the 4:28.16 Age Record in the Lausanne race! A 1500 in 4:10 or 4:11 should get her there!
19 Esther Chebet has ZERO chance to get Pieterse's 4:17.57 in Lausanne!
20 Dawit Seyaum is in London's race, and should easily take down the 4:23.92 Age Record!
22 Axumawit Embaye is the ONLY Woman entered in both Lausanne AND London!!  But she'll have a task before her if she wants the 4:17.75 Age Record!  45-55 odds!
23 No one really stands out here, even though this Age has 4 entrants between the 2 races!  And the 4:18.08 Record would require she pass 1500 in 4:01.  Maybe Caroline Chepkemoi?  20-80 odds!
24 Laura Muir is twenty four--and that rhymes!!  LOL  The Record is 4:17.25!  If Muir seriously chases the British NR, give her 85-15 odds!!  Oh heck, make that a 100% guarantee!!
The German Steeplechaser--Gesa Krause--is also 24!
25 This is the Age when Dibaba ran her 4:14.30 last year!  No one in either field comes close to her level!
26 The Age Record is 4:21.57!  It's not a matter of IF, but by how MUCH Genzebe CRUSHES it!!
If she wasn't this age, or wasn't running, the Record might STILL fall--with both Laura Weightman and Linden Hall capable of nipping it!
27 Helen Obiri is in the best shape of her life!  The Age Record is 4:16.71 (By Mary Slaney!!), but if she's on, give her 80-20 odds!  She'll need a 4:00 through 1500--at least!!
28 While Kate Grace is good, and getting MUCH better, she's just NOT capable of getting the World Record of 4:12.56!!  She's in the London race!
29 This Record is 4:22.18.  Angelika Cichocka and Stephanie Garcia (in London) would need to come by 1500 in at least 4:05 to have any chance at all!!  Give Cichocka the edge, with 60-40 odds!
30 Jenny Simpson's OUTdoor best is 4:22.18!  But her 1500 PR is worth a Mile in 4:13 or 4:14!!  If she stays with Muir--and Simpson's one to not fear challenging the leader!--Slaney's AR will fall--and maybe fall HARD!!  Give her 75-25 odds for this Age Record of 4:20.39!
36 Jenny Meadows, Genzebe's rabbit in Lausanne, is listed for London---but NO indication she'll be Muir's rabbit also!!  IF she finishes the whole race, this Age Record slot is now EMPTY--at least in my Record Book!!  (There must be a Record for this Age, but I doubt it's very good, so if Meadows should run in the low 4:30's or faster, I'll put her name in the Book!  She's never run a Track Mile for time, as far as I know!  It's likely, however, that she WILL be Muir's key rabbit here!!)

National Records?
Thirteen nations are represented in the Lausanne and London Miles!
In alphabetical order--
Australia's NR is 4:22.66.  Linden Hall has a decent chance to get it!
Ethiopia's NR is Genzebe's 4:14.30.  Toss a coin!!
Germany's NR is 4:21.59.  Ms Krause will probably fall short--but not by much!
Great Britain's NR is 4:17.57, as noted above!  Muir--even though Scottish--should nail this one!
Ireland's NR is 4:17.25, but I doubt Ciara Mageean--even in London's race--can get it!
Italy has an NR of 4:23.29. But Margherita Magnani would have to be at her very best to break it!  Give her 30-70 odds!
Kenya's NR is 4:16.71.  Obiri, as earlier noted, is in top shape!  Give her 80-20 odds!  She's also in the London field!
Morocco's NR is 4:23.50.  Malika Akkaoui is this nation's sole entrant in either race!  She's a sub-2:00 800 person, but doesn't have the distance strength to get this mark!  Not yet!  But give her 35-65 odds anyway!
Poland has an NR of 4:22.96.  Cichocka is 29 now, but give her 60-40 odds in London's race!
Romania's NR of 4:15.61 will NOT fall!!
Spain's NR is 4:21.13, and is safe!
Esther Chebet is NOT the Ugandan who's tasked to lead Dibaba through the first 800 today (before Meadows hopefully takes over!), but she WILL get Uganda's NR---for the simple reason that there apparently is NO Mile Record for her nation!!  Hope she doesn't DNF!  LOL
And then there's us---er, I meant US--as in the United States!!
See my comments above for Jenny's chances to get Queen Mary's NR!!
Queen Mary?
Gee, is that insulting to say in Royal England?

As for my Top 24 Performers lists--my DDD's--
Genzebe Dibaba (2nd) and Laura Muir (14th) are currently on the World list!
Jenny Simpson (5th) is on my US list!

24th Place on the World list is 4:21.13!
There are 16 Women with times of under 4:20.00!!

24th US best is 4:27.23.
There's just Slaney at sub-4:20!
But there's 10 Americans with sub-4:25's!

Both Dibaba and Muir could rise on the World DDD!
Several could MAKE the list under perfect circumstances--
Axumawit Embaye, Dawit Seyaum, Caroline Chepkemoi, Gesa Krause, Helen Obiri, Jenny Simpson, Kate Grace, Laura Weightman, Angelika Cichocka, and Linden Hall have fair to good chances!
(If ALL should beat the present-24th best, I'm sure 1 or 2 or more might get thrown OFF the list immediately--by other's entering!!)

For the US list, give both Kate Grace and Stephanie Garcia excellent odds to make it!
And give Simpson an excellent chance to move up---WAY up!!

What about the Morton Games Women's Mile?

IMPORTANT NOTE--This race is going to be at 1500 meters, NOT a Mile!!  Please see my NOTE above for more info!  My apologies again!

Let me take some wild guesses as to which Americans will be there.
(The first 3 finishers in 2016 were Americans--Mackey, Heather Kampf, and Cory McGee!!)

Alexa Efraimson might fly over after today's NY TrackTown Summer Series meet!
Maybe Grace and Garcia?
(I doubt Simpson will go there!)
Will Mackey return to defend her title?
Amanda Eccleston?

Whoever shows from here, it should be a sub-4:30 race---and maybe challenging Mackey's MR of 4:25.48!
Of course, Irish Women will be there, including probably Mageean!!

Now we'll see how THIS Preview fares against the one I did in 2015!!