Wednesday, June 21, 2017

2017 USATF (Sr & Jr) Preview--MEN

I just made a "joke" on Twitter about placing bets on how many Steeplers take an "accidental" dive into the pool during their race!
With temps expected as high as 108, maybe NOT a joke!

As for the "heated" (Sorry!  LOL) competitions to make TeamUSA for the London World Championships, expect some classic duels!!
Because most of America's best are here!
However, some are competing in events other than what they'll do in London!

This Preview will list the events in order of the scheduled finals!
NOTE: There have already been schedule changes made, due to the heat!
There could be more!!
So don't take this blog's listed schedule as THE schedule---it might change!
(I'm giving the new listed times for each final to begin!  The times for the Multi's are for each event's final discipline!)
I'll also list the USATF Meet Records!
Then I'll offer two sets of names!
My "picks" for Top Three!
Then some others with a good chance to make that esteemed group!
At the end, I'll give you a brief overview of the Junior USATF meet!
Two posts--Men first!

June 22nd
1:45 p.m. (All times Pacific!) Hammer Throw
The MR of 270-8 will NOT be approached, let alone broken!
Rudy Winkler should win, with Kibwe Johnson and Alex Young offering a challenge!
Conor McCullough could upset, but Sean Donnelly and Colin Dunbar should be filler!

10:09 p.m.  10000
ALL distance (1500 on up) MR's are safe!
This one is 27:39.4--dating from 1979!!
Despite the late start, temps will be in the 90's, so expect a "strategic" race!
Galen Rupp is reliable, so give him the win!
But transplanted Africans should be feared, so watch for Shadrack Kipchirchir and Len Korir to stay close!
Sam Chelanga is the best of the rest, with Chris Derrick looking good this spring, and Hassan Mead always there!

June 23rd
6:00 p.m.  Triple Jump
Heat shouldn't affect the Horizontals, but winds could!
Stamp Christian Taylor and Will Claye as locks, with Omar Craddock almost so!
KeAndre Bates had a long Collegiate season(s), but he was always in the 55 foot range!
Chris Benard and Matthew O'Neal are others to watch!
The 58-4.50 MR could go---70-30 odds!!

7:06 p.m.  Decathlon (the 1500)
Where's Mr Eaton?
(Rhetorical question!!)
Without "HIM", look for Devon Williams to fill the gap!
Trey Hardee is too injury prone for me to gamble on a comethrough!
But Zach Ziemek looks good to challenge.
Harrison Williams, Scott Filip, and Matt Modin could reach 8000 points.
Keep Hardee in sight for a possible (SUPER) upset!!

8:02 p.m.  100
Justin Gatlin has NOT been sharp this year!
But you just CAN'T deny this Super Vet!!
But give this title to newbie Profesh Christian Coleman!
With a DEFINITE chance to get the MR of 9.84!!
Ronnie Baker should be there!
After those 3, watch for Trayvon Bromell, Michael Rodgers, and Tyson Gay--who might have extra motivation, as he's dedicating this meet to his daughter, who was tragically murdered last year at age 15!!

9:10 p.m.  5000
Paul Chelimo should be the favorite here!
But Ben True and Eric Jenkins have fierce kicks--and in a slow race, that matters!!
The MR is totally safe--13:12.76.
(I would LOVE to be wrong!!)
Len Korir, Hassan Mead, and Ryan Hill could be close---especially in a tactical race!

June 24th (My 73rd Birthday!!  JEEZ!!!!)
11:30 a.m.  Javelin Throw
The US is weak in this event!
So it really doesn't matter who makes the team!!
But Riley Dolezel, Cy Hostetler, and maybe Curtis Thompson are ones to watch!
Flip a coin----a Wooden Nickel!!
(MR is 299-6!!  Even Thomas Kohler would be hard-pressed to break that!!)

12:00 p.m.  Pole Vault
Sam Kendricks!
For the win, and MAYBE for the 19-9 MR!!
Chris Nilsen should make this team, as could Andrew Irwin.
Logan Cunningham, Audie Wyatt, and Matthew Ludwig will be fighting for the lower places!

12:40 p.m.  Discus Throw
The MR of 233-9 can be tucked away for another year (decade, century!!).
That said, Mason Finley should be given a slight edge for the win!
Rod Brown and Andrew Evans could easily take that away!
Jared Schuurmans is tough, but Brian Williams and Sam Mattis should be seen as mostly filler!

1:31 p.m.  400
LaShawn Merritt is entered in the 200 ONLY, even though he's ON the 400 team for London!!
Fred Kerley will win this, and CAN get the Meet Record of 43.66--set by Michael Johnson in 1995!
(I just hope he saves his best effort for the final!!)
Two OTHER Michael's might slip onto the podium--Cherry and Norman!!
Tony McQuay has a 44.24 PR, but not this year!
David Verburg is reliable!
The final challenger is open!
I'm going with Teen Machine Tyrese Cooper!!
He's due for a BIG 400 time---maybe in 44.69 HSR territory!!

2:41 p.m.  1500
This time, a 3:50 time might seem sensible---even to this Records-conscious fanatic!
(Not really!!  LOL)
Give Matthew Centrowitz the win---but not the MR of 3:34.82!
Kickers should have the edge here, so give the places to Robby Andrews and Clay Murphy!!
Kyle Merber and Ben Blankenship are always there.
Don't deny Leo Manzano a spot either!

June 25th
6:45 a.m.  20000 Walk
I'm naming just 3 guys here.
No one else will be close!
John Nunn, Nick Christie, and Emmanuel Corvera are the trio!
If they break 88 minutes, I'd be surprised!

11:55 a.m.  Shot Put
Adam Nelson's MR of 72-10.75 could be smashed in the first round---by TWO men!!
Randy Crouser and Joe Kovacs are the pair.
80-20 odds!
Ryan Whiting has been sharper than in recent years, and could be ready to REjoin the "Elite Elites"!!
Darrell Hill and Jonathan Jones might reach 70, but not much farther!
Watch for Jordan Geist to shock!!
He threw the 16 pounder 68-4 INdoors---smashing Mr Crouser's HSR!!
Michael Carter has the OUTdoor mark of 67-9!!
Just saying.

12:05 p.m.  High Jump
Another relatively weak US event---EXCEPT for Eric Kynard!!
But the 7-9.25 MR will be tough---so give Kynard just 20-80 odds!
Ricky Robertson and Brad Adkins might have 7-6's in them.
Kyle Landon, JaCorian Duffield, and Jeron Robinson should make the final!

12:10 p.m.  Long Jump
Some events have a solid threesome vying for the TeamUSA spots.
True here, with T&FN Centerfold'er (June issue!) Jeff Henderson leading the candidates.
Although the MR of 28-10.25 won't be touched!
Jarrion Lawson and Marquis Dendy are "almost" certainties!
Will Claye, KeAndre Bates, and Jarvis Gotch might be almost a foot behind!!
(One day and a dollar short!  LOL)

1:20 p.m. 800
The MR is 1:43.27!
Give it 65-35 odds of going down!!
Boris Berian is MIA---for an unknown reason!
(Actually, he's been MIA all season!!)
But don't fear--Clayton Murphy's here!!
And so is Donavan Brazier!!
If the 400 is reached in 50 flat (or faster!), watch out!!
I'm giving the 3rd podium spot to Charles Jock!
He runs hot or cold, but a recent fast 600 (See previous post!) is promising!
Erik Sowinski also has good 600 wheels---but over 800??
Watch for Eliud Rutto and Drew Windle to be in the mix!

1:56 p.m.  400H
Some folks (T&FN!!) are leaving Bershawn Jackson OUT of the Top 3!!
Not me!!
Add Kerron Clement and recent "find" Quincy Downing to my choices!
Michael Stigler should be there, as should Eric Futch.
Add Byron Robinson as a possible surprise!
The MR of 47.03 (from 1988!!) is inviolable!!

2:16 p.m.  3000SC
After Mr Bun (aka Evan Jager), watch for Hillary Bor and Andrew Bayer to stay close!
Both had big PR's recently, and might be ready for more!
(Although a mid-afternoon time slot in 100-PLUS temps might deter them from anything faster than a LOPE!!)
In this heat--Don't be a DOPE--LOPE!!  LOL
All these lousy "jokes"
Must be my age showing!!
BTW, the MR of 8:12.29 should survive!!
Oh yeah, watch for Dan Huling, Don Cabral, and Stan Kebenai as possible shockers!

2:33 p.m.  200
This could be THE final of the meet!!
Noah Lyles for the WIN!!
While Justin Gatlin's MR of 19.57 SHOULD be safe, watch for Gatlin and LaShawn Merritt to give Lyles some "HEAT"!!
(Heh.)
But don't stop at these three!
Because new Pro Christian Coleman might be right behind---or ahead!!
Isaiah Young and Ameer Webb are also fast, and could be more than mere lane fillers!

2:53 p.m.  110H
Since when does a major meet END with the 110H??
Anyway, Devon Allen seems the slight favorite here, but NOT for the 12.93 MR!!
Aries Merritt is my sentimental favorite---and shouldn't be underestimated!
Aleec Harris can turn on the sub-13.20 jets as he pleases!
David Oliver is a Super Vet NOT to be overlooked!
Jarrett Eaton is another good one!

As for the Juniors, here's some key names to watch!
Not all events are covered, as some don't have the big names!

100 has Anthony Schwartz!
200 has Schwartz AND Tyrese Cooper!  (The latter is entered in the Senior meet too!!)
400 has Cooper again, but how many events (Sr & Jr) will he run??  Brian Herron and Josephus Lyles are also entered!
800 has Cameron Cooper and Rey Rivera!
1500 has Cooper(s)!!  Cooper Teare and Cameron Cooper!
10000 has Steven Cross.
3000SC has Eion Nohilly!
10000 Walk has Cameron Haught!
110H has Joseph Anderson and Eric Edwards!
400H has Cory Poole, Quincy Hall, and Noah Green!
HJ has Zack Anderson and Isaiah Holmes!
LJ has JaMari Ward and Isaiah Holmes.
PV has Chris Nilsen (In BOTH meets??), KC Lightfoot, Cole Riddle, and Riley Richards!
SP has Jordan Geist (Using "Junior" implement, no doubt!) and Tripp Piperi!
DT has Turner Washington!  Jeff Williams too.
JT has Liam Christensen!
HT has Michael Feldman.
Dec has George Patrick.

The Women's Preview will be posted in a few hours!



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