(Times given above are approximate, based on speed of races! The Men's race begins at 10:06 a.m., while the Women's race begins at 10:22 a.m., Pacific Time!)
Before looking at tomorrow's races, let's take a quick peek at the "modern" history of the event.
Following are the Top 3 finishers for the Men beginning in 1972, and for EVERY Trials race run by the Women, as they began in 1984.
1972
MEN-----Kenny Moore (2:15:57), Frank Shorter (2:15:57), Jack Bachelor (2:20:30)
NOTE: Moore & Shorter finished holding hands crossing the line!
1976
MEN-----Frank Shorter (2:11:51), Bill Rodgers (2:11:58), Don Kardong (2:13:54)
1980
MEN-----Tony Sandoval (2:10:19)
NOTE: The OG were boycotted by the US, upon order of President Jimmy Carter!
Thus, I'm giving just the winner!
1984
MEN-----Pete Pfitzinger (2:11:43), Alberto Salazar (2:11:44), John Tuttle (2:11:50)
(SIX seconds separating the 1st three!)
WOMEN-Joan (Benoit) Samuelson (2:31:04), Julie Brown (2:31:41), Julie Isphording (2:32:26)
NOTE: Joanie had knee surgery 17 days before the race!! Women did NOT yet have the 5000 or 10000 on the track in the OG!!
1988
MEN-----Mark Conover (2:12:26), Ed Eyestone (2:12:49), Pete Pfitzinger (2:13:09)
WOMEN--Margaret Groos (2:29:50), Nancy Ditz (2:30:14), Cathy O'Brien (2:30:18)
(O'Brien had set HSR of 2:34:24 four years earlier as Cathy Schiro!)
1992
MEN-----Steve Spence (2:12:43), Ed Eyestone (2:12:51), Bob Kempainen (2:12:54)
WOMEN--Janis Klecker (2:30:12), Cathy O'Brien (2:30:26), Francie Larrieu (2:30:39)
1996
MEN-----Bob Kempainen (2:12:45), Mark Conover (2:13:05), Keith Brantly (2:13:22)
WOMEN--Jenny Spangler (2:29:59), Linda Somers (2:30:06), Anne Marie-Lauck (2:31:18)
2000
MEN-----Rod De Haven (2:15:30), Pete De La Cerda (2:16:18), Mark Coogan (2:17:04)
WOMEN--Christina Clark (2:33:31), Kristy Johnston (2:35:36), Anne Marie-Lauck (2:36:05)
NOTE: Hottest day & most difficult course??
2004
MEN-----Alan Culpepper (2:11:42), Meb Keflezighi (2:11:47), Dan Browne (2:12:02)
WOMEN--Colleen De Reuck (2:28:25), Deena Kastor (2:29:38), Jen Rhines (2:29:57)
2008
MEN-----Ryan Hall (2:09:02), Dathan Ritzenhein (2:11:07), Brian Sell (2:11:40)
WOMEN--Deena Kastor (2:29:35), Magdalena Lewy-Boulet (2:30:19), Blake Russell (2:32:40)
NOTE: Hall is the OT Marathon record holder!
2012
MEN-----Meb Keflizighi (2:09:08), Ryan Hall (2:09:30), Abdi Abdirahman (2:09:47)
WOMEN--Shalane Flanagan (2:25:38), Des (Davila) Linden (2:25:55), Kara Goucher (2:26:06)
NOTE: Flanagan is the OT Marathon record holder!
Except for 1972 and 2000, the Men's winning times were sub-2:13.
Only the last 2 races were sub-2:10.
For the Women, 5 of their 8 races were sub-2:30.
But just 2 of those were sub-2:29, and just 2012 was sub 2:26!
So what does this history say about tomorrow's races?
That heat and the toughness of the course determines the speed?
That most OT Marathon races are somewhat tactical?
That most OT Marathon races are NOT runaways?
The weather is supposed to be rather warm tomorrow!
At race start, temps should be around 60.
At the end, the temps will be close to 80!!
The course is said to be flat, but it has MANY turns!
It starts with a 2.2 mile stretch, then segues onto a 6 mile loop, which \will be run 4 times!
Several runners have withdrawn from the race, for various reasons.
Ryan Hall & Matt Tegenkamp (retirement)
Aaron Braun, Chris Derrick, Abdi Abdirahman, and Ryan Vail (injury/lack of training)
Sarah Crouch (unknown)
Lauren Kleppin and Deena Kastor (injury)
So who's gonna win, and make the team?
Who will be the FOURTH placer??
Following are my predictions!
MEN
GALEN RUPP----------The odds-on favorite, and the biggest gamble? Good enough to run 2:05 against World Class competition in Berlin or London. But this is his first 26.2 race. He says he's ready! But he intends to race the 3000 at USATF and the WC, both in Portland, just 4 weeks after this race! Also, if he makes the team in the 10000 (and the 5000??), will he give up his Marathon spot to the 4th place finisher??
LUKE PUSKEDRA------Ran 2:10:24 in Chicago last fall! He says he's ready too! Can he duplicate his Chicago race here? In interviews, seems very mature and relaxed.
SAM CHELANGA---Has raced close to Rupp on the track! Has been winning some road races. Just became a citizen last year!
MEB KEFLIZIGHI---The Veteran of Veterans! Won Boston in 2014! Can handle any type of course. Probably most popular Marathoner around! But he's 40 now! When they break away at 4:38 to 4:42 pace, can he stay with them?
DATHAN RITZENHEIN--Fourth in 2012, just 8 seconds from making the team, he might be the most motivated!! Yes, he made the team before, but he's had injury problems, and has changed locations, leaving the NOP group to return to Michigan to train! Has great track speed, but not much of note recently!
There's numerous men who, on a perfect day, could break through to be competitive with the lead group!
They include Nick Arcianaga, Scott Bauhs, Shadrack Biwott, Ben Bruce, Fernando Cabada, Bobby Curtis, Diego Estrada, Brett Gotcher, Elkanah Kibet, Matt Llano, Tyler McCandless, Tyler Pennel, Sean Quigley, Jake Riley, Jared Ward, and Jeff Eggleston.
WOMEN
SHALANE FLANAGAN--The clear favorite of most "experts"! She admits to having some minor physical problems during her early build-up to this race, but seems to be in great shape now. Has the best track speed of anyone here! Prefers running hard from the gun! Led Boston in 2014 for over half the race! Started training with Amy Cragg in recent weeks! Might want to help Cragg make the team!
DESIREE LINDEN---Formerly Davila! Led much of Boston last year! Tough runner. Almost won 2011 Boston with 2:22:38 PR! Says she wants to WIN this race, not just make the team! She's never won a major race before! Is consistently fast in her Marathons. Could be best suited for the warm temps!
KARA GOUCHER--Probably the woman most WANT to make the team. The clear sentimental favorite. Will have massive Oiselle cheering section in LA (and online)! Has run two 1:11 Half-Marathons recently, winning both! She's 37, but seems ready to return to sub-2:30 range!
AMY CRAGG---Formerly Hastings. Has run exact same time of 2:27:03 twice in recent years! Like Ritzenhein, might have the strongest motivation, as she was also 4th in the 2012 race! As noted earlier, has been training recently with Flanagan, and they might run together through most of the race! Like Goucher, she's married to a former star Collegiate and Pro runner!
SARA HALL--With husband Ryan newly retired (but coaching her!), she could leave the Hall name imprint on this race! Ran the fastest recent Half--a 1:10:07. Brought her Marathon PR from 2:48 to 2:31 last year!
Has been very good in the Steeplechase and Cross Country.
As with the Men, there's many Women lying under the radar, who could surprise on race day!
They include Janet Cherebon-Bawcom, Serena Burla, Annie Bersagel, Kellyn Taylor, Adrianna Nelson, Jennifer Bergman, Addie Bracy, Ashley Brasovan, Caitlin Comfort, Heather Lieberg, Becky Wade, Renee Metivier-Baillie, Meghan Peyton, Clara Santucci, and Hilary Dionne.
Two "Age Group" runners will be fascinating to watch.
Colleen De Reuck is nearing 52 years of age!
And Alana Hadley is 19.
NBC is going to have the entire race televised!
Not sure whether I'll do a separate post for these races tomorrow.
There's several good T&F meets happening this weekend, including the NB Boston gala on Sunday!
But I'll have the results no later than Sunday afternoon!!
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