Record Predictions--2015 OUTdoors

Okay, so it's a bit late to be predicting records for a season that's already begun.
(If you take into consideration the NZ and Australian summer seasons, you could say the OUTdoor season began January 1st!)
But with only the Texas Relays behind us (among true potentially record-producing meets), and with the added excuse of my being ill for 2 weeks just when I was planning to do this post, I hope you'll accept this belated attempt.
I'll do the 4 groups I deal with here--World, US, Collegiate, and HS--Men first, then Women.

World--Men
Usain Bolt seems to be planning more competitions this year than last.
However, I just don't see him breaking his own records.
(Forget anyone else!)
I think Kirani James and LaShawn Merritt can go sub-43.50, but neither will get MJ's 43.18.
All the middle distance records--800, 1000, 1500, 1 Mile--are safe.
Mo Farah and a HOT group of Africans are going to race the 3000 in the Doha DL.
Based on Farah's 3:28.81 1500, I think he CAN break Daniel Komen's iconic 7:20.67 WR over 3000 meters.
But EVERYthing will have to be PERFECT!
Weather, pacing, and most of all, the athletes ALL going for it---no strategic racing--just balls out RUNNING!
The 5K and 10K are safe, but the Marathon mark could go--in the spring or in the fall.
The 110H and 400H records won't go.
Will Bondarenko and Barshim take down Sotomayor's HJ standard?
I'd give it 50-50 odds.
Too many over-hyped failures last year!
The LJ and TJ records will remain the same.
Yes, Renaud Lavillenie WILL get the OUTdoor WR in the Pole Vault.in 2015.
All of the Throwing WR's will continue to defy all attempts by drug-free athletes to break them!
Ashton Eaton CAN break his own Decathlon WR this year.
But WILL he?
Watch for any serious attempt at the USATF meet or the WC's itself.
I'm giving it 60-40 as a Yes!
With the World Relays coming in just 4 weeks, I can see some Relay records falling.
I just don't know which ones!

US--Men
The 100, 200, and 400 AR's will be the same come next January 1st!
Johnny Gray's 1:42.60 in the 800 could go, but who's going to do it?
Solomon or Symmonds?
Or Sowinski or Loxsom?
Same goes for the 1000!
Rick Wohlhuter's 2:13.9 dates from 1974!!
If Matt Centrowitz raced like Jenny Simpson, I'd give him a fair chance to break the 1500 AR.
But he races like....a guy we call Centro!
Any of the track distance records could fall to Galen Rupp--the 3000, 2 Mile, 5000 and 10000.
But will the opportunity arise?
Evan Jager WILL break his own SC record---and I'll give him 70-30 odds of taking it below 8 minutes!
Both Hurdles records are safe!
Will Eric Kynard get the AR in the HJ--and finish in 4th place??
Nothing from the Horizontal jumps!
Despite this being the Year of the Vault, Brad Walker's AR is safe.
See my "World" predictions about the Throws!
Same goes for the Dec!
Ditto for the Relays.

Collegiate--Men
9.89 and 19.69 are damn good CR's.
But Trayvon Bromell and Trentavis Friday are damn good athletes!
50-50 on both!
Despite Deon Lendore, that 44.00 in the 400 is too good!
All of the CR's from the 1500 through the 10000 could fall--to Edward Cheserek (or Eric Jenkins?).
But will they CHASE them?
Henry Rono's 8:05.4 SC dates from 1978!
Put your erasers away on that one!
Can Omar McLeod transfer his 7.45 60H time to a sub-13.00 for 110H?
Yes!
Renaldo Nehemiah--it's been a nice long ride!
Michael Stigler ran 48.44 in his first OUTdoor race this year.
But 47.56 may be too much to wish for.
Put him at 30-70 odds to get it.
The HJ and LJ records are safe.
But Marquis Dendy looks like a possibility for the TJ mark!
The only question about Shawn Barber getting the CR is----How high will he go?
John Godina's SP mark is 20 years old.
Can Stipe Zunic or Ryan Crouser take it down?
45-55 odds for both.
The DT record isn't that strong---but I see it as outside the abilities of current throwers.
The JT?
Forget it!
As for the HT, I can't wait to see how the three 80 footers in the INdoor WT fare OUTdoors.
I can see them reaching 250 feet, but 268-10??
The Decathlon CR is safe.
The 4X400 record ALMOST fell last year.
It's going down this year!

HS--Men
Trentavis Friday's 10.00 is safe.
But can Noah Lyles be this year's Kaylin Whitney in the 200?
(If he gets the record, he'll turn Pro before his Senior year!)
The 400 and 800 records are safe.
Is Grant Fisher another Jim Ryun or Alan Webb?
I think he WILL break 4:00, but unless Fisher gets an invite to the Pre Mile, Webb's mark will live another year.
Fisher COULD get the 3000 and 2 Mile records, but will he get the opportunity?
Or will his time be negated by the 1600-3200 abomination?
Rupp's 5K mark is safe.
As for the now-39 year old 10K mark?
Nah!
Bailey Roth graduated, so no new SC mark!
The Hurdle records are safe.
So are the HJ, LJ, and TJ records!
Shawn Barber's 18-3.50 PV mark is on Death Row!
But who will have the honor?
None of the Throwing marks will fall.
Neither will the Decathlon.
It's almost impossible to know enough about the Relays on the HS level to be able to predict which HSR's will fall, if any!

World--Women
The 100, 200, 400, 800, 1000, and 1500 WR's will survive any 2015 attacks!
But the Mile mark of 4:12.56 is worth a 3:55 or 3:56 1500.
And Genzebe Dibaba ran 3:55.17 INdoors in 2014.
Again, opportunity and willingness to TRY for it will determine if she (or anyone!) gets it!
30-70 against!
The 3000 mark is safe, but the 2 Mile is available!
If the Top Tier runs a Deuce like they did the 3K in Doha last year, it can go.
(It's worth about 8:25 for 3K, and a few ran that fast last year!!)
Genzebe D has stated she's going to chase the 5000 WR at the Prefontaine Classic.
If she gets it, she'd be breaking her SISTER's record!
I firmly believe that Chinese 10000 record is vulnerable.
But will all the stars align?
Paula's WR is safe for another year.
(Although we may see a 2:17:00 this year!)
The SC record CAN go, but it won't!
40-60 odds!
The 100H and 400H marks are safe--despite Michelle Jenneke's vast improvement this year!  LOL
The HJ, LJ, and TJ records will remain the same.
And yes, so will the PV!!
The SP and DT reign from the 80's.  Enough said!
However, I can see both the JT and HT records falling.
JJK's Heptathlon WR will survive.
But can KJT reach 7000 points?
I'd give THAT 70-30 chances!
Some Relay marks will fall, but which ones?

US--Women
Forget Flojo's 100 or 200 going down any time soon!
But the AR in the 400 CAN go--to Allyson Felix!
Given all the negatives, however, it won't!
That 1:56.40 800 mark can go.
Alysia Montano is back, but watch for Brenda Martinez and Ajee Wilson too!
Same goes for the 1000 mark.
Jenny Simpson WILL finally get Mary Slaney's 1500 AR.
And if she gets in a good Mile race, Slaney's Mile record will fall too!!
Both Simpson and Shannon Rowbury came within 5 seconds of Slaney's 3K mark.
If they go for it, it's gone!
Ditto for Regina Jacobs's 9:11.97 Two Mile AR!
Molly Huddle (or Rowbury or Simpson) could break the 5000 AR.
The 10K is unlikely to go.
I'm one who believes Emma Coburn's 9:11.42 IS the AR, despite USATF rules!
But it doesn't matter, as she'll destroy that mark in 2015!
Forget the 100H and 400H records.
Ditto with the HJ and LJ.
But will Keturah Orji or Ciarra Brewer take the TJ in America to a new level?
The OUTdoor PV record is "just" 16-1.75.
I'd give that mark a 50-50 shot at survival!
Raven Saunders is improving by FEET at a time, but 66-5 may be just a bit too much---even for her!
Can Gia Lewis-Smallwood break her own DT mark?
60-40.
The JT mark will remain the same, despite Kara Winger's great start!
The HT record WILL fall---to possibly 2 or 3 different Throwers!!
JJK's Hept mark is VERY safe!
Which Relay records will go----and where?

Collegiate--Women
Dawn Sowell's 100 and 200 records are safe--despite some excellent Collegiate sprinters this year!!
However, since Courtney Okolo is back, her 50.03 in the 400 could fall.
Natoya Goule seems in great shape, so that 1:59.11 800 could fall.
Forget Jenny's 3:59.90!
But the Mile mark of 4:29.04 SHOULD go!
Only deterrent will be that ubiquitous nemesis--opportunity!
Don't forget that TWO women ran faster INdoors!
With several good distance runners around, the 3000, 5000, and 10000 all could fall.
Best chance would be in the 5000.
The SC mark of Ms Barringer (Simpson!) can go.
I'm predicting neither Hurdles record will go.
The HJ should remain intact.
But can the Horizontal Jumps fall?
I'd give both a 40-60 shot!
Demi Payne has already taken a shot at Tina Sutej's 15-1.50 PV mark from 2011.
With her and Sandi Morris (and...and...and...!!!) going at it, it WILL fall!
Sixteen feet??
Meg Ritchie's 62-3.75 SP record is GONE!!
Only question is---How far can Raven take it??
That other Ritchie CR--her 221-5 DT---can go.
Shelbi Vaughn has started strong.
The JT mark will remain the same.
And so will the HT--though I'd give that one a 30-70 shot!
Can Kendell Williams add over 500 points to her PR in the Hept?
Yes, she CAN--but she won't!
Watch the Penn Relays to see a CR (or 2) fall in the Relays!

HS--Women
With Kaylin Whitney turning Pro, the 100 and 200 HSR's are safe!
Ditto with the 400.
Mary Cain's marks in the 800 and 1500 are good for another year!
But that Mile mark of Polly Plumer has NOT fallen--despite Alexa Efraimson's 4:33 1600 last year!!
With the Adidas DL in NY, the Brooks PR meet, and the NBN, they'll have 3 venues to take their shots!
Lynn Bjorklund's 9:08.6 3000 is out there for the taking.
So is Bethan Knights's Two Mile mark.
Mary Cain's 5000 mark is possible.
The 10K and 3000SC will survive.
Dior Hall's 12.92 will remain on the books, but with Sydney McLaughlin around, Leslie Maxie's 55.20 from 1984 is going to crash!!
Vashti Cunningham has already had 3 or 4 OUTdoor meets at 6-2 or 6-2.50!
6-4 isn't outside her abilities!
60-40 odds!
The LJ and TJ records are safe.
But the PV mark of Desiree Freier--14-7.25--is not!
Still, even Lexi Weeks is 4 inches away, so give it 50-50!
All of the Throws HSR's are safe---with the JT given the best chance---but just with 30-70 odds!
No one's going to touch the Heptathlon record!
Relays, as always, are unpredictable!

Here's one more prediction!

MOST of the above predictions will be WRONG!!