Before I begin this "extra" post, a few caveats.
1. These are NOT team or individual predictions of who will win.
2. This is strictly about which Meet Records will fall, the odds of each record-breaking, and a name or two who should (might, maybe, possibly) do it.
3. This is NOT about Collegiate Records, Class Records, or any records except for NCAA MEET Records!!
4. This review is based on the latest heat sheets, as of right this minute, about 20 hours before the meet begins!
Men
4X400R (2:59.59)
Florida ran 2:59.73 a couple of months ago, and have the potential to go a second or two faster.
110H (13.21)
You have two guys (Aleec Harris & Wayne Davis) who have run faster!! Plus another one (Devon Allen) who's gone 13.27. Not to mention Eddie Lovett & Jon Cabral!!
Wouldn't be surprised if 3rd or 4th place is 13.20!!
10000 (28:01.30)
Five guys (Shadrack Kipchirchir, Kennedy Kithuka, Trevor Dunbar, Parker Stinson, and Ed Cheserek) have a shot at the MR.
But will the pace be right?
These guys all have sub-28:00 potential/ability, and this could be a RACE, meaning one or more will push the pace, forcing the kickers to run faster in the first 5000 than they wanted.
If that happens, we could see a 27:30 to 27:40!
1500 (3:35.30)
Again, it's all dependent on the tactics.
Will someone (Lawi Lalang and Mac Fleet are the chief contenders) shoot out from the gun, hitting the 400 in 55, and the 800 in 1:54??
Or will it more resemble that women's indoor Mile at USATF in 2013??
DT (215-8)
This is a LOADED event this year, and could prove to be the best Men's field event!
And Julian Wruck is NOT a solid favorite, despite being the CR holder!
Look for Andrew Evans and Chad Wright to challenge.
And don't completely overlook SP and DT doubler (and Oregon boy!!) Ryan Crouser, who could pull a shocker!!
5000 (13:20.63)
Like the 10000, this field has some real MR threats.
Of course, there's Lawi Lalang, Ed Cheserek, and Kennedy Kithuka.
But again, the tactics will decide the fate of this MR.
It CAN go down, but WILL it??
100 (9.89)
Trayvon Bromell ran a VERY wind-aided 9.77 awhile back.
Dentarius Locke is strong.
Hayward Field is a fast track, but it's also a WINDY track!!
A record (of any kind!) in the sprints depends on the wind!
These guys could run 9.7+ or low-9.8's, but a wind of 3.6 would nullify the record!!
The only other Meet Record that has ANY chance (on the Men's side) is the PV.
Sam Kendricks has gone over 19 feet.
The MR is 19-1.
He (or Andrew Irwin or Shawn Barber) would have to be at the TOP (pun intended!) of his game to just tie the record, let alone break it.
Looks doubtful, especially considering the wind, which also affects PV'ers!!
You can forget about MR's in the 200, 400, 800, 3000SC, 400H, 4X100R, HJ, LJ, TJ, SP, JT, HT, and Decathlon.
Women
PV (14-7.25)
This MR is so weak, and this field is so deep and strong, that we could see 6 to 8 women tying or breaking this record.
Kaitlin Petrillose and Sandi Morris seem the most likely to break it (and even hit 15 feet!!), but don't overlook Sammie Clark, Alysha Newman, Martina Schultze, and Lakan Taylor!
10000 (32:28.57)
I would normally be suspect of predicting a MR (or ANY record!!) in a distance race, men's or women's!
Many (most??) Championship distance races are run tactically, meaning jog the first 9200 (of a 10000), then kick the final 800, if even that much!!
But here you have one runner who does NOT like to sit and kick!
At least, that's been her M.O. since I first became aware of her in high school.
The person I speak of is Michigan's Erin Finn, perhaps the most notorious front-runner in track today.
Depend on her to burn the first 5000.
She has a PR of 15:26.08, so a first 5000 in under 16:00 is a distinct possibility.
And with Emma Bates, Juliet Bottorff, Elinor Kirk, and Elvin Kibet behind her, she may have to keep running at 15:59 or faster pace to STAY in front.
I see this venerable record (which I saw in person!!) as already erased!!
5000 (15:15.08)
This is an event where I could see the Collegiate Record falling too!!
Abbey D'Agostino has been the odds-on favorite for at least a year, since she won the race in 2013.
But a new wrinkle enters the picture.
Her name is Aisling Cuffe, who just happens to have a faster PR than Abbey D!!
Not much faster....but faster nonetheless!
Will Cuffe push the pace (a la Finn in the 10K), trying to weaken Abbey's better kick?
And what about Marielle Hall, whose 15:19 earlier this year shocked everyone??
400 (50.10)
We COULD see the first (and maybe the 2nd and 3rd, and even 4th!!!) sub-50 clocking in this event at the Collegiate level!!
The speed, the competition, the fans enthusiasm--it's all there.
If the wind is just a mild breeze, this record could finally go down, and go down hard!!
Courtney Okolo, Ashley Spencer, Phyllis Francis, and Kendell Baisden are the contenders!
4X400R (3:24.54)
This is a VERY tough MR.
But with the team victory (and placings) possibly on the line, and dependent on the outcome of this one race, this could be a barn-burner!
And that would mean the MR could go.
Texas, Texas A&M, and Oregon are the rivals.
DT (210-10)
This one has an in shape Shelbi Vaughan, who threw 208-8 a bit ago.
She has potential for much more!
There's no one around her who's a really serious contender, so it might fall on Vaughan's shoulders as to whether this MR goes.
HT (232-0)
Julia Ratcliffe has a PR of 230-7, and has set new PR's 2 or 3 times already.
Can she do it again?
She's the New Zealand National record holder as well, so any "PR" would be a new NR too!!
200 (22.04)
This is a damn good record!!
And as noted earlier, wind can nullify some really speedy times in Eugene.
But Olivia Ekpone has run 22.23.
And she'll likely have a couple of women close by, names of Kamaria Brown and Dezerea Bryant.
However, I'd give this record, at best, just a 50-50 shot at going down!
Two other MR's have SOME chance of being broken, but are both VERY unlikely!!
They are the 800 and the TJ.
In the 800 (where the record is 1:59.11--which is also the CR!!), you have ONE candidate, and her name is Laura Roesler.
On the pro side, she's capable of going sub-2:00!
On the con side, her team is in contention for the team title, and so she's likely to go just for the victory.
However, she's a senior, so this would be her last chance to set a Collegiate Record!!
In the TJ (the MR is 46-7.25), you have a gal who's gone over 46 feet (Shaneika Thomas), and a potential 46 footer (Ciarra Brewer).
But with wind a possible hindrance, not to mention the quirky nature of TJ's and LJ's, the odds of getting a MR here are LESS than 50-50...maybe as low as 20-80!!
All the other events--100, 1500, 3000SC, 100H, 400H, 4X100R, HJ, LJ, SP, JT, and Heptathlon, have either ZERO chance of being broken, or the odds are so low, it's not worth even mentioning!!
(That said, will Shalaya Kipp make the attempt to go after the 9:25.54 MR of Jenny Barringer (Simpson)? And is Cory McGee in her 4:06.67 shape from 2013 to go after the 4:06.19 record in the 1500??)
The next 4 days will be electrifying, as EVERY NCAA meet is!!
Keep this blog post handy, and enjoy the meet!!
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