Haven't done a predictions/preview post since indoor season.
But this World Relays is unique enough, and so loaded with World Record (and National Record) possibilities, I felt it was worth a post.
I want to offer a few guidelines first.
Here's the listed time schedule (all times are Pacific Time).
Saturday, May 24
2:30p.m. 4X200 heats (M)
2:49 4X100 heats (W)
3:15 4X800 final (M)
3:40 4X400 heats (W)
4:12 4X400 heats (M)
4:45 4X1500 final (W)
5:16 4X200 final (M)
5:33 4X100 final (W--B race)
5:42 4X100 final (W--A race)
Sunday, May 25
2:30 p.m. 4X200 heats (W)
2:49 4X100 heats (M)
3:14 4X400 final (W--B race)
3:26 4X400 final (W--A race)
3:48 4X1500 final (M)
4:19 4X800 final (W)
4:41 4X400 final (M--B race)
4:52 4X400 final (M--A race)
5:11 4X200 final (W)
5:21 4X100 final (M--B race)
5:37 4:100 final (M--A race)
Now for the predictions!
(I shudder!! LOL)
I offer these with a few caveats.
1. My predictions are based on LISTED entries, as of May 22. These are, of course, subject to change!!
2. Where I list more than 1 team with a chance for the WR, this could mean two things. One, that the WR is going to be/likely to be broken. Two, that said WR can be broken by more than 1 team, but there will be only 1 winner, and thus, only 1 holder of the ultimate WR.
In addition to my predictions, I will (in a few cases) give my reason(s) for the record (whether World or National) NOT being broken!!
In the latter case, there are 2 reasons why these records will NOT be broken. One, the record is too tough, too good! Two, the record will NOT be broken because certain athletes are NOT running, and without them, a record is unlikely, if not impossible!!
Given those caveats, here's my predictions.
World Records
Women's 4X1500
This one's 100% certain!!
That 17:05.72 by Kenya a few weeks ago is SOOOOO easy to get, the only questions left are: By which team, and By how much!!!
My prediction is for Kenya to win, with the US, Australia, and Ethiopia also crushing the WR.
If it's competitive, and they really try for a fast time (in addition to the win), a sub-16:20 is possible.
The US, with its listed entries, is capable (at best!) of a sub-16:30, about 10 seconds behind Kenya.
IF the US had Simpson, Rowbury, Martinez, and Cain, I'd give it AT LEAST EQUAL chance (with Kenya) for the win, and WR.
Alas, they've sent their B (or C??) squad, with all due respect to those running!!
Also, Ethiopia doesn't have the Dibaba's, or Defar! Without them, they have little chance to challenge Kenya, though they might get the US to take 2nd.
Men's 4X1500
This one will go, but a bit less certain than the Women's!
The WR is 14:36.23, about 3:39.5 per 1500 leg.
Kenya WILL win, and thus get the ultimate WR.
However, the US can also break the WR.
But with a team whose PR's add up to a sub-14:00 (!!!!!) time, Kenya should win this easily!!
IF it turns into a tactical race (i.e. each leg being jogged for 1200, sprinted for 300), then the US MIGHT have a chance to be close to Kenya at the end!
BTW, in addition to Kenya and the US, I believe Australia, Poland, and Ethiopia can get their National Records!
Men's 4X800
The WR for this race is 7:02.43, about 1:45.61 per 800 leg.
Without Daniel Rudisha, Kenya can STILL break the WR, and win.
And the US, even without Nick Symmonds, can also break the WR.
The outcome will be determined by the tactics.
Do they go all out?
Or will it be a tactical race?
If the former, a time of under 7:00 is possible....for BOTH top teams!
If the latter, both can STILL get the WR, but it won't go sub-7:00.
Poland, with Kszczot and Lewandowski, can also get the WR, but not the win!!
Men's 4X200
The record (1:18.68) is fantastic!!
With a team of Bolt, Blake, Ashmeade, and Weir, Jamaica would SMASH it!!!
Probably go sub-1:18!
BUT......they don't have Bolt, and they might not even have Blake!! (He may run just the 4X100!)
The United States has ZERO chance, even if Tyson Gay were available!!
So I'm predicting.....IF Blake is put on this squad!!!.......Jamaica will win, but probably NOT get the WR.
I'd give the odds as 80 to 20 against!
It's that 20% chance that makes me place Jamaica (and the Men's 4X200) on the list of WR possibilities.
BTW, Jamaica could still get its National Record of 1:20.79.
No other event has WR potential, given the listed team make-ups.
As for National Records, I must note a few things.
One, the entry list does NOT always include a team's National Record!!
And if I don't know it myself, I can't predict whether it will (or can) be broken.
Two, if it IS listed, it's probably too good, too tough a record to be broken, as with the US and its Women's 4X100 WR of 40.82.
Three, some listed NR's are so slow (relatively speaking!!), that they're likely to get broken, even though I'm not familiar with their team members PR's.
All that said, here's the list of NR's I BELIEVE (but not, in all cases, certain!) will, or can, be broken.
(This list is only for those events NOT listed above!
Men's 4X100
Bahamas, Barbados, China
I'd add St Kitts, but the team does NOT have Kim Collins!!
Men's 4X400
Belgium, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
Women's 4X100
Canada, British Virgin Islands, Nigeria, Puerto Rico
I'd give Australia a chance at their NR....IF they had both Breen and Pearson on their team.
Alas, neither one will be in the Bahamas!!
Women's 4X200
Jamaica, Nigeria
I'd give the US the chance to get the WR.....IF the team included Felix, Jeter, and Tarmoh!
As for Jamaica, without VCB, no chance!!
Women's 4X400
Bahamas, Jamaica, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago
Without Felix and McCorory, the US has ZERO chance for an NR!!
Women's 4X800
While Russia's 7:50.17 WR is WAYYYY out of reach, some NR's could go.
Australia, France, Kenya, US.
Women's 4X1500
The same 4 teams listed above for the WR---Kenya, US, Australia, Ethiopia---can get their NR's too.
This meet is unique, even given the US vs the World section of the Penn Relays.
The only thing missing (besides some star athletes!!) are races with top US Collegiate teams!
Enjoy the meet.
And look for this blog to have a FULL report ASAP after its conclusion.
(Along with all the other great marks from this weekend's action!)
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